Uncharted Waters

There is no denying that determining the fallout from John Stroger’s stroke has become one of the most difficult and interesting question in recent Chicago political history. Will it doom or help his candidacy for re-election? No one can say for sure.

Before the news of his medical condition broke yesterday, Stroger’s campaign looked like it was getting a big infusion of momentum. A Chicago Tribune poll published Tuesday gave him a 10 percent lead over Forrest Claypool and a new round of Stroger commercials hit the air waves featuring Bill Clinton, Mayor Daley and Dick Durbin. The predictions of low voter turnout seemed to play right into Stroger’s hands, too. If you had to make a bet Tuesday morning, the smart money would have been placed on Stroger. But by Tuesday afternoon, all bets were off.

Claypool has run a smart and spirited campaign, but the Trib poll indicated Stroger’s coalition of African-American and white "organization" voters was (at least prior to the stroke,) holding its ground. As I pointed out here in December, if Stroger gets a mere average, Roland Burris-like black turnout on March 21st, Claypool would likely need to get more than 75 percent of the county’s non-black vote to win. That’s a tall order given Stroger's support from the unions and a handful of key "machine" wards. The Trib poll showed Claypool getting only 54 percent of the white vote.

Claypool and some in the media have questioned the depth of Stroger’s support among African-American voters, given his past failure to support black candidates like Harold Washington and Barack Obama. Some Claypool supporters even saw signs of weakness in Stroger’s 75 percent showing among African-American voters in the Trib poll. They shouldn’t get their hopes up too high. In the Trib’s final poll before the ‘02 gubernatorial primary, Burris was getting 72 percent of the black vote and a number of Paul Vallas supporters took that to mean their guy could get more than 20 percent of the black vote on Election Day. In the end, he only got about 10 percent.

So how does Stroger’s health situation affect these numbers? It may help Claypool among undecided white voters by reminding them that Stroger is well past his prime. Then again, his condition could create sympathy, especially among African-American voters who were mad at him for his past disloyalty to black candidates.

A friend of mine, who has a high ranking Cook County job and is supporting Stroger, attends a bible study class on Tuesday nights at an African-American church. Over the last several weeks, a handful of her classmates have expressed apprehension about supporting Stroger because of his past political alliances. Their tone changed dramatically last night. The session was opened with a prayer for Stroger’s health.

Obviously, this is just one anecdote from a biased source. But my guess is Stroger’s health crisis will harden his African-American support and assure his victory next Tuesday. But it’s just a guess.