Down to the wire

By Jamey Dunn and Bethany Jaeger, with Hilary Russell contributing
Some of yesterday’s moving parts actually started revolving around each other late in the day Thursday. The Illinois Senate approved two major revenue enhancements, one a sizable tax hike and another a major gaming expansion. That immediately put the onus on the House, which was in the middle of trying to advance an “insurance budget” to fund agency programs at bare bones levels.



Income tax increases and education funding
The momentum started in the Senate. Democrats tweaked a bill that was intended to address education funding, which would include an income tax increase of 2 percentage points for individuals. It would increase from 3 percent to 5 percent. Different versions of the measure have long been presented by Sen. James Meeks, a Chicago Democrat, but never found the support to pass. However, a looming deadline and $7 billion budget deficit this fiscal year has created new possibilities for an old concept.

One difference this time around is that the plan would only raise the corporate income tax rate from 4.8 percent to 5 percent, a much smaller increase than previously sought. It also would expand the sales tax to include services.

Senate President John Cullerton said the tax restructuring would help solve some of the chronic budget woes, but the plan would still come up $2 billion short of what the state needs to fully fund pensions and to maintain current spending levels. A vote for the tax plan, he said, inherently would be a vote for $2 billion in budget cuts.

House Bill 174 (the "new 750"), would provide some targeted tax relief. It would raise the personal exemption and increase the earned income tax credit over two years to protect low-income residents. It also would provide property tax relief, which attracted Democratic Senators.

Over time, the tax plan would funnel more money into education and higher education, something Meeks wanted for years to address funding disparities between school districts throughout the state.

Republicans opposed the tax increase and sales tax expansion, describing it as a mistake during a recession. Sen. Matt Murphy, a Palatine Republican, said: “There’s a lot of different ways we can go at this if we go line-by-line through this budget, and I know because I’ve done it. This will cause more Illinoisans to lose their jobs, without a doubt.”

The bill passed with only Democratic votes. Sen. Dan Kotowski, a Park Ridge Democrat, gave an emotional speech about making his last-minute choice to vote for the bill. He said he had been praying about his decision and cast the vote that he knew would make his family proud. He said he had been telling leadership that he would vote “present,” but he changed his mind during floor debate. After the vote, Kotowski encouraged some House Republicans to follow suit.

Cullerton said that passing the bill in the Senate may help House Democrats feel safer about changing their minds. However, he said that the bill would need Republican support to pass. “When one chamber starts and passes a bill, they see that we’re still walking around — we’ve got a different version of what the governor has — that there’s a way to do this. So I think it’s a good start.”

But Gov. Pat Quinn is still backing the income tax proposal that has been introduced in the House. “I think the [temporary income tax] plan we have here in the House is probably the one we’ll have to go with. It’s straightforward. It’s pretty simple. It’s for two years. And the whole idea is for at least at this time to hold off dire catastrophes.”

Gaming
Momentum to consider alternative revenue sources continued with a Senate vote to expand gaming by adding four new facilities, including new gaming facilities in Chicago, Waukegan, Rockford and Danville. Existing gaming facilities, including horse tracks, also could start operating more slot machines. Senate Bill 744 would generate at least $150 million upon issuing the licenses, according to Sen. Terry Link, a Waukegan Democrat. Once the new facilities were up and running and the economy improved, he said the package could generate up to $1 billion a year.

Building new casinos and riverboats has been tried numerous times in the past few years, and similar proposals haven’t advanced in the House. But, Link said: “They need money and here’s a good way to give them money. So I think it's future is a lot better tonight.”

Rep. Bill Black, a Danville Republican who would receive a gaming facility in his district through Link’s bill, said the state may need an income tax increase. Then again, he said: “When you’re drowning and a life preserver floats by, your impulse is to grab it. When you have a community that’s so desperate for investment and jobs, you turn to things you normally wouldn’t even consider. I would support the riverboat. I don’t have the luxury to say I don’t.”

Bare bones budget
The so-called “insurance budget” advanced by House Democrats as a back-up plan would fund state agencies at about 80 percent of the level they were funded at last year, which would be about 50 percent of the governor’s proposed budget.

Majority Leader Barbara Flynn Currie tried early in the day to advance a temporary income tax increase. That wasn’t gaining enough votes. So late Saturday night, Currie tried to at least approve the “insurance budget” to keep the lights on, so to speak. Without it, agencies would be funded at 32 percent of Quinn’s proposed budget.

But after word spread that senators approved an income tax increase across the rotunda, several House Democrats started to peal off support for a bare bones budget. Rep. Sara Feigenholtz, a Chicago Democrat and vocal advocate of human services, urged fellow lawmakers to hold off on a bare bones budget to “continue to fight for more solutions.”

Currie said she would prefer either version of an income tax over a bare bones budget, but it was a way to ensure something landed on the governor’s desk just in case chaos ensued Sunday, the last day of the regularly scheduled session.

If all else fails, Currie said she would call the bare bones budget again before Sunday’s midnight deadline. Here’s what it would do:

On the revenue side:

• Sweep $356 million from dedicated funds four times throughout the year.
• Refinance debt to get a 4 percent interest rate and save $600 million next year, saving $237 million over the life of the bonds.
• Along with tapping into federal funds and starting other efficiencies, it would generate about $1 billion.

On the spending side:

• State agencies could receive lump sums at half the funding level proposed by the governor.
• The administration would have to figure out how to spread the money around and to cut certain grant programs.

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Too many moving parts

By Bethany Jaeger, with Jamey Dunn and Hilary Russell contributing
Plan A failed before it even got to the House floor for an official vote Friday.

Democrats said they don’t have enough support for a temporary income tax increase without Republican votes, so rank-and-file legislators were sent home early while leaders met to hammer out Plan B behind closed doors. Meanwhile, different plans to expand gaming and restructure state taxes to change the way the state funds education were floating around in the Senate. But that chamber went home early, too, leaving many legislators to see the May 31st adjournment date slipping away as no combination of revenue and spending options appear within reach.



House Democrats emerged from a closed-door meeting this afternoon with reports of competing priorities. Rep. Monique Davis of Chicago described it this way: “Some people want a tax increase. Other people don’t want a tax increase. Some people want a smaller tax increase. Others want it a little larger. Some don’t want to bypass the pension payment plan. Some people want to make the pension payment. So we’re absolutely all over the board.” She said House Speaker Michael Madigan is letting his members decide. “I think speaker’s doing what he does and that’s let everyone make up their own minds and their own decisions, but we’re going to have to realize what those decisions mean.”

House Minority Leader Tom Cross said Democrats don’t need GOP votes. They could do it on their own. “They’ve got 70 votes — 70 votes. Does anybody in this building think that if the speaker really wants to do this, he can’t do it? Everybody knows that if the speaker wants to get something done, he puts 60 votes on.”

Even if a majority of Democrats or Republicans agreed to raise the state income tax, the General Assembly would still have to cut spending, according to assistant Majority Leader Frank Mautino of Spring Valley.

But they can’t agree on where to scale back, either. That’s partially because Democrats say one of the only places left to cut is from the part of the budget that provides grants to community services, including everything from programs for AIDS patients to after-school clubs. But individual legislators don’t want to stop funding projects or programs in their districts.

“The state budget has become this mosaic of all these individual grant programs that even in times of crisis, we can’t move away from,” said Rep. Marlow Colvin, a Chicago Democrat, adding in frustration, “so it’s ridiculous.”

Mautino added: “There have been uncomfortable votes in the General Assembly, but never a hard vote. Any vote you make this year, someone gets hurt.”

House Democrats do agree that lawmakers can’t balance the state budget solely but cutting spending. “We don’t have enough money for a full year at the levels there at this year,” said spokesman Steve Brown.

Among the alternative plans being considered is minimizing the budget to reflect the level of revenue available. That would include approving lump sums of state funding to agencies, which would then have to decide how to spread the money around to keep the lights on and the doors open until the money ran out. It’s expected that they would have to return to the Capitol to ask for more money early next year.

“I see leaving Springfield with a budget that reflects exactly what we have and what we’re willing to vote for in revenue,” Mautino said, later adding, “We’re just all trying to find something that will keep services running and provide the least amount of pain possible because there’s going to be pain — no matter what we do.”

Across the rotunda, Sen. John Sullivan, a downstate Democrat, said as the day progressed, it appeared more likely that the legislature would resort to a budget based solely on revenues available. But he wasn’t happy about it. “If we go past the 31st without a full budget being passed, all we’ve done is put off the inevitable,” he said. “We’re going to have to come back at some time and face reality.”

Both chambers will resume business Saturday, potentially, with Plans B and beyond.

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Prepare for revenue vs. spending showdown

By Bethany Jaeger
The General Assembly has five days until the constitutional deadline of May 31 to approve a state operating budget, and there are only three days until Senate President John Cullerton wanted to adjourn so everyone could go home by this weekend.

Things are still pretty fluid in the Capitol, with lots of options being discussed but few commitments being made to any of them.


“There’s Plan A, Plan B, Plan C, and, so far, we have not seen B nor C,” said Sen. Donne Trotter, budget negotiator for Senate Democrats.

Plan A includes funding basic portions of the budget to keep the lights on and to secure federal stimulus funds regardless of whether the legislature approves an income tax increase. And that plan, approved by the House last week, wouldn’t fulfill spending obligations for state programs and public employee pensions. House and Senate Democrats are circulating lists of programs that would not be funded under the core budget plan, forcing members to rank programs that could be cut or not.

Those lists are leading up to the plea for a state income tax increase, but for that to happen, Democrats need Republican support. Senate President John Cullerton said he doesn’t believe his caucus has 30 votes necessary to approve an income tax increase, leading him to turn to Republicans. The GOP, however, doesn’t want to approve an income tax increase unless the General Assembly first tries to trim spending and make existing programs more efficient, including instituting managed care policies and other Medicaid reforms.

Sen. Dale Righter, a deputy Republican leader from Mattoon, said, “To say that there isn’t any waste in state government is to say, ‘I agree with the last six years of Rod Blagojevich’s budgets,’ and I don’t think any of them want to say that.” He added that constituents want comprehensive reforms that affect every dollar the state spends, not just a percentage of it. He said enacting a half-year budget would unlikely include any reforms.

“Once you support that and put that into law, then you’ve locked that in place. And you’ve said, ‘OK, there’s nothing we can do about that spending.’ And I don’t think that’s the message we want to send.”

As Democrats and Republicans consider their options behind closed doors tonight, consider this breakdown of general revenue versus spending and the large gap between the two, according to Democrats.

Spending side

• Legislators are working with about $23.8 billion to dole out, including federal stimulus funds.
• The House last week approved $16.9 billion to keep the lights on and to secure federal stimulus funds, leaving about $6.9 billion to split among state programs.

Revenue side

• According to Senate Democrats, the state would need an additional $4 billion just to get to last year’s funding levels (a.k.a. a zero-based budget).
• And then it would need between $2 billion and $4 billion to pay the state’s full share into the public employee pension systems.
• That means, according to Trotter, that budget negotiators anticipate needing up to an additional $8 billion to get up to last year’s funding levels and to fully fund the pensions.
• Shorting the pension payments is always on the table. Making a minimal payment, however, would not pay down the compounding liabilities.
• So is approving a temporary budget that would distribute the money on hand but would not be enough to get through the year. Cullerton said he opposes the idea of a half-year budget.
• Gov. Pat Quinn also has proposed a two-tiered pension system so that newly hired teachers and state employees would earn less generous retirement benefits. While the administration suggests long-term savings would result, teachers’ unions strongly disagree and point to a report by the legislative Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability.

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Capital plan heads to the House

By Bethany Jaeger, Hilary Russell and Jamey Dunn
Senate President John Cullerton said he delivered on an inaugural promise to approve a major infrastructure program this spring. The $26 billion capital program, which would rely on tax and fee increases and new gaming revenues, won Senate approval and now heads to the House in what many legislators hope will continue to be a bipartisan effort.



If approved by the House, the new plan would build onto a $3 billion “mini-capital” program approved earlier this year. Combining state, local and federal funding in both the mini- and the full-capital plans would mean a $29 billion investment into roads, bridges, mass transit, schools, universities and community colleges, parks, libraries, museums, water systems and technology projects.

But not all the spending was earmarked in today’s capital plan. Legislators still would have to negotiate how and where the last $1.5 billion would be spent. The General Assembly also still has to negotiate how to balance an operating budget that is projected to be $11.6 billion out of whack over two fiscal years. But that is separate from the capital program.

Cullerton and Senate Minority Leader Christine Radogno stood together in a news conference after the chamber approved the construction. While several Republicans and a couple of Democrats opposed the revenue ideas (here’s the vote of 47-12), the spending plan received unanimous support.

“If you look at the totals of the votes, perhaps we could have done this with just Democrats,” Cullerton said, “but then we’d have acrimony, and it wouldn’t bode well for the future, and it wouldn’t bode well for the [operating] budget.”

Radogno said the four caucuses worked together to ensure a fair distribution of the money throughout all regions of the state. “That is not always easy to do. Then you cross-cut that with partisan politics. It is not easy to come up with something fair and balanced, and I truly believe that this is a fair and balanced product.”

Radogno added that while the revenue package is “not ideal,” it is “real revenue,” as opposed to borrowing without having money to repay the debt. “This proposal doesn’t do that. It pays for what we’re going to be getting.”

Sen. Martin Sandoval, a Chicago Democrat who has urged for more money for Chicago-area transportation systems, claimed victory because the capital program would include a more equitable split of money between northeastern Illinois and downstate. While some of the money would be distributed through a traditional formula for road projects that tends to give more money to downstate road projects, about $3.5 billion would go to new road and transit projects through discretionary spending. Cullerton said, “When it’s all said and done on roads, it’s probably 50-50 throughout the entire state.”

Sen. James Meeks, a Chicago Democrat, did not support the revenue portion. Cullerton later said that he met with Meeks several times to address his concerns about minority representation in unions and construction jobs. Cullerton said he looks to fund a vocational training program when the leaders negotiate the final $1.5 billion of the capital program.

It’s been 10 years since Illinois had such a major infrastructure package, and the last six years of gridlock between former Gov. Rod Blagojevich and the legislature took a toll. Numerous legislators commented about reviving a bipartisan spirit after a span of dysfunction, and “what a difference a year makes.” Cullerton ended by saying: “This is just back to normal. I’ve been here 30 years — 24 of them were normal.”

Here’s a breakdown of the revenue-makers:

Gaming

• Two separate types of gaming would generate about $375 million. That includes legalizing video gaming machines in places where alcohol is served. The state would tax and regulate the machines and garner revenue.
• A second program would allow the state to hire a private company to manage the Illinois Lottery for up to 10 years. It also would sell lottery tickets online, with the goal of marketing to people who don’t currently play the Lottery. It would make Illinois the first state in the nation to allow “Internet lottery,” which would be contingent on approval from the U.S. Justice Department.
• But creating new methods to access gambling is similar to playing with fire, according to Anita Bedell, executive director of Illinois Church Action and Alcohol Addiction Problems, who likened the programs to granting easy access to underage players.

Taxes

• It would reclassify soft drinks, candy, beauty and some hygiene products for sales tax purposes and generate up to $150 million.
• The sales tax on alcohol also would increase for wine (from 73 cents to $1.39 per gallon), spirits (from $4.50 to $8.55 per gallon) and beer (from 18.5 cents to 23.1 cents per gallon). It would generate about $113 million a year. Opponents said taxing alcoholic beverages is not a constant source of revenue for the state.

Driving-related fees
Increased fees would bring in more than $330 million a year. The increases would include:

• Title certificate fees from $65 to $95.
• Registration fees from $15 to $25.
• Driver’s license fees from $10 to $30.
• Fines for semitrailers that are over the approved weight.

FYI:
Revenue bill is HB 255.
Spending bill is HB 312.
Bonding bill is HB 2400.

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Inch by inch

By Jamey Dunn and Bethany Jaeger
In a pivotal step toward finalizing the capital plan, Gov. Pat Quinn met with Democrat and Republican leaders of both chambers in Quinn’s Statehouse office this afternoon.


Senate President John Cullerton, Senate Minority Leader Christine Radogno, House Speaker Michael Madigan and House Minority Leader Tom Cross met for several hours. But none of them commented to the media after the meeting.

Rikeesha Phelon, spokeswoman for Cullerton, said it was the first substantial meeting between the four leaders and the governor since he took office. She said that an agreement has been reached between Democrats and Republicans in both chambers and that Cullerton left the meeting confident of a vote on the capital plan coming tomorrow.

Measures to approve new revenue sources and to grant bonding authority to the state are expected to move first. According to Radogno’s spokeswoman, Patty Schuh, the revenue sources will all be included in a single bill. Some Republicans wanted two separate bills so they could avoid taking a difficult vote on expanding gaming.

The bulk of spending will be in a bill that could come up for a vote tomorrow, and some individual projects that still need to be negotiated will be in a later bill. Schuh said that the leaders and Quinn still want to avoid giving out large chunks of money without specifically designating them to projects.

Meanwhile, the House advanced basic parts of the operating budget that would authorize standard spending regardless of whether legislators approved an income tax increase, which Quinn continues to urge as needed. The spending would include money to keep the lights on, as well as funding for education and Medicaid, two areas that have to meet federal requirements to capture economic stimulus funds. Funding contracts for state employee unions also is required.

At least two major questions remain: Will the state fund all $4 billion of its scheduled contribution into the public employee pension systems (a typical year’s contribution would be about $1.2 billion)? And will the legislature resort to increasing the state income tax, outlining budget cuts, or both?

“Without a tax increase, are you going to fund the pensions at normal costs, which means unfunding about $3 billion?” said Rep. Frank Mautino, an assistant majority leader. “And then how do you decide which of the remaining items you’re going to pay for?”

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Video gaming advances

by Jamey Dunn
A bill that would expand gambling to help pay for new schools passed in a House committee today.

The measure, sponsored by Rep. Frank Mautino, a Spring Valley Democrat, would allow establishments where liquor is served, fraternal organizations, veterans' clubs and truck stops to have video gaming machines such as video poker. Many places already have the machines, but they can't legally pay out winnings. If approved, the state would require establishments that offered video poker to be licensed and would legalize betting on the games. The machines also would be taxed, with revenue going toward school construction projects and local governments.



Mautino said he did not make racetracks or off-track betting facilities eligible to operate video poker machines because he wanted to keep the bill simple in hopes of increasing its chances of passage. “For years this bill has been around, and it gets involved in the giant end-of-session bills, which usually collapse under their own weight,” he said.

Here's a break down of some of the numbers associated with the measure:

• 25 percent The percentage of net profits from the video gaming machines that would be taxed.
• 20 percent The amount that would go toward building schools.
• 5 percent The amount that would go to local governments.

• $2 The maximum wager per hand.
• $500 The maximum payout per hand.

• 21 The minimum age to play.
• $5,000 The maximum fine an establishment would pay for allowing someone under 21 to gamble.

• 25 The percent of licensing fees and fines that would go toward treating gambling addiction.
• 75 The percent that would go toward regulating the process.

Anita Bedell, speaking on behalf of the Illinois Church Action on Alcohol and Addiction Problems, said that making gambling so convenient would lead to more widespread addiction. “These machines are like the crack cocaine of [gambling] addiction,” she said. “The problem is people don't have to get in their car and drive to Las Vegas or a casino or a race track. They can just go down the street to a truck stop, or a restaurant or a bar.”

House Speaker Michael Madigan said last week that he does not want to consider any gaming expansions this session.

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Time for some long-term fiscal planning

State Comptroller Dan Hynes already painted a dismal picture of the state's fiscal status with his projection of a nearly $9 billion deficit in fiscal year 2010, which starts July 1. He estimated that could drop to a roughly $6 billion deficit if the state received $3 billion from the federal stimulus package, but the federal bailout amount for states is in flux at this very minute. Adding to the problem is that the current fiscal year 2009 budget keeps getting more and more out of whack. The revenue forecast looks worse than it did in November, according to the legislature’s economic forecasting arm.


Last fall, the bipartisan Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability said revenues for the current fiscal year 2009 would fall $550 million below the previous year, or $1.34 billion less than the level budgeted.

Part of that spending plan assumed the state would collect $435 million by selling the state’s 10th riverboat license, but the winning bid for the license came in at only $125 million — and it won’t be available in time to ease this year’s budget crunch. According to the Illinois Gaming Board, the money could come in two chunks, one in fiscal year 2010 and the rest in 2011.

In short, the current year’s revenue picture “worsened virtually over night to nearly $1 billion less than the previous year,” the commission said in its January revenue forecast.

The commission added that it may need to make further adjustments when state income and sales tax revenues decline as the national recession unfolds. The cumulative damage: at least $1.6 billion by March.

As all four legislative leaders met with Gov. Pat Quinn this past week, talk of tax increases and budget cuts circled the Capitol. Public administration professor David Merriman at the University of Illinois at Chicago said even if the state gets $3 billion in federal bailout money, cuts spending and increases the state income tax by 1 percentage point, it's still going to be a rough road ahead. "The state needs to do long-term fiscal planning, and they need the legislature to take that seriously," he said.

Watch for more context and analysis in the March edition of Illinois Issues magazine.

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Keep your sights on 2011

The state’s bipartisan legislative Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability projected the state’s budget shortfall between $2 billion and $3 billion for the current fiscal year, FY09. And that striking deficit includes a one-time windfall when the state collects on a lease of the 10th casino license.

Yesterday, Gov. Rod Blagojevich pitched a four-point plan. Tonight, Rep. Gary Hannig, the chief budget negotiator for House Democrats, said he plans to discuss legislation Thursday that would advance one of the governor’s proposals. (Watch for the new language in an amendment of SB 2083.) It would allow the governor to withhold 8 percent of general revenue funds in “reserve.”


This and previous governors have applied that power to state agencies under the governor’s control in the past, but the new proposal would expand that authority and allow Blagojevich to impound some additional funding for K-12 education, higher education and state pension funds. It also potentially would allow Blagojevich to collect some tax revenues typically shared with city and county governments.

The same power to reserve up to 8 percent also would be extended to other statewide officers. The governor already applied a 3 percent reserve on state agencies and cut funding for constitutional officers earlier this year. The potential for further reserves begs the question of how state managers would be able to cut more programs or institute more furlough days than they already have.

Hannig said the current proposal also would allow Blagojevich to apply the reserves unevenly, potentially requiring 8 percent reserves, say, for higher education but not for K-12 education. The House will have to flesh out the details of this serious but controversial proposal, Hannig said. “Our view in the House is in light of the fact that we’re scheduled to go home tomorrow and not return until January 12 that we shouldn’t just ignore the governor’s proposal.”

Hannig pointed out: “The language says he may. So he may not.”

Hannig’s budget negotiating counterpart in the Senate, Sen. Donne Trotter, agreed. “He doesn’t have to do this against any agency. This is an alternative to us getting dollars from the feds or selling the license, so it’s a contingency plan.”

While the House could move the bill Thursday, Trotter said the Senate could still act on it by week’s end or in the first two days of session in January.

Either way, the FY09 budget is in bad shape, and the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability projected that FY10 will be worse. The first thing that sticks out, Hannig said, is a massive payment to the state’s five pension systems for public employees. He anticipates an additional $1.2 billion payment, and if revenue projections are accurate, the state might not even garner $1.2 billion in growth for FY10.

“If we don’t do something, we may not even be able to make the pension payment next year, let alone anything else,” Hannig said.

To avoid ending on a bad note, take the advice of Scott Pattison, executive director of the National Association of State Budget Officers. He spoke to Statehouse reporters during a national conference in North Carolina last week and said: Look forward to FY11, when things actually might start to look better. Hannig agreed with that projection and compared post-FY11 to a spring day after the long, dark days of winter.

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