And the numbers are...
Do you think it odd the paucity of GOP election polls during this cycle?
The STL has this tease, and will show the rest of the leg tomorrow.
But here is my gut:
Topinka 28%
Oberweis 22%
Gidwitz 18%
Brady 10%
Undecided 22%
What does your crystal ball say? What if Oberweis actually wins? Do you think he will get big again?
Winner receives a copy of Rich Miller's very funny Sun-Times debut column (call him collect to collect).
20 comments:
Oberweis will win
Oberweis' negs are soaring, so put Brady much closer to him. I wouldn't be surprised of Brady is ahead of Oberweis on primary day.
In the end, it'll still be Judy, though. Sure, she's taking a hit, but she still draws support from accross the spectrum, including conservatives.
Them elephants is good eatin,' Shadow -'specially with nice cut of that fois gras on the side.
Yep. Brady will break 20% by erection day.
Here are the results:
ALL MEN WOMEN 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+
Judy Baar Topinka 36% 32% 40% 38% 34% 36% 35%
Jim Oberweis 25% 28% 22% 23% 27% 26% 27%
Ron Gidwitz 19% 20% 18% 22% 17% 20% 18%
Bill Brady 11% 13% 9% 8% 14% 11% 13%
Andy Martin 1% 1% 1% 1% - 1% 2%
Undecided 8%
Brady will be the dark horse in all of this. It all depends on how much of a vote he can pull downstate. If downstate turnout is high, Brady will give Judy a run for her money.
Unfortunately, he doesn't have much of an operation in the collars. With that in place, he would be a much stronger candidate.
Once again...the Shadow knows...not much, as it turns out.
The Post-Dispatch poll shows Topinka leading 36-25 over Jim Oberweis, with the other candidates even further behind. In head-to-head match-ups, Topinka is within the margin of error vs. Blagojevich, as he leads 47%-40. Meanwhile, the other Republicans running for Governor aren’t even in the ballpark. Oberweis trails Blagojevich 53%-38%, Gidwitz trails 52% - 29% and Bill Brady trails 56% – 24%.
Anon 2:08
I knew you would say that
Brady won't break 10% and I doubt he carries McLean Co. He has no ground operation. I don't know where you guys get the idea that he's doing better than he actually is.
Hey genius's None of the Republicans are running against Blago!!! Judy was up by 25% in December she will lose. So will Blago
Another Big City Poll that take's all of it's sample from Chicago and very little of the sample downstate. I guess it's their last best chance to keep all the power in the big city.
Anon 6:42 try looking out the window at all those signs or are you in downtown Chicago and can't see downstate.
I think the St. Louis poll has way too few undecideds (8%?). I also think Oberweis is a lot closer to Topinka. Brady will climb and place a close third. Gidwitz will place last.
Obie will win and gain 50lbs
If Oberweis is within five points of Topinka, and Brady is more than 5 points behind Oberweis, on election day Oberweis will win. This is his magic numbers. This happens during most elections. Brady supporters are conservative, when they get into the actually election box and if they know Brady can't win they will choose Oberweis.
Why?
Better Oberweis then Topinka. Of course right now they say they will vote for Brady. But in the booth where no one can see if they have to choose Oberweis or Topinka wins, then I predict many will vote Oberweis.
Also depending on where Gidwitz is I see some of his support going to Oberweis as well. I don't see Gidwitz supporters running to Topinka because the only thing they have in common is social issues and I think Topinka has locked the liberal Republican crowd up, but economic conservatives who like Gidwitz don't want taxes and fee raises and Oberweis is the far better choice.
Right Now I predict the following numbers (my are somewhat similar to yours)
Topinka 28%
Oberwies 23%
Gidwitch 14%
Brady 14%
Andy Martin .o5% (I have to give old Andy a number, he made the last debate a riot!)
Undecided 21.5%
Prediction: I am going against the rest of the herd on this! Oberweis loses weight as he runs across the state like a mad man trying to beat Rod.
With early elections, I don't get why we aren't seeing the results from the folks who have already voted.
So this is where idiots gather to pass time, who knew.
A lot of wishful thinking for Oberweis is going on here.
For example, 25 percent undecided eight campaign days out, after how many debates? No way.
You guys are also wishful on how low Topinka is. These are Oberweis numbers.
Other than us crack heads, no one is even paying attention.
At least 25% will make up their mind when they step into the booth.
I don't get why Topinka does so well, and am even more flabbergasted that the negative campaigns against her that I have heard completely miss the mark. Why is it that no one hardly mentions that her running mate is a part of the Dugan/Nicarico murder scandal where the wrong men were put in prison and despite overwhelming evidence the prosecutors refused to admit they were wrong? I believe this is why the Dems won the last election -- isn't this deja-vu? And if Topinka wasn't responsible for the fiasco with Alan Keyes, who was? Do we really want this type of leadership in Illinois? It seems to me a vote for Topinka is a sure bet to have 4 more years of Blago.
As for the others, without getting into details it seems to me the only decent candidate with a chance at the General Election is Gidwitz.
Brady & Oberweis both have too radical of views for the voters of Illinois, even though I agree with some of those ideals.
The new poll is out:
New Poll Result:
Judy Baar Topinka
36%
Jim Oberweis
25%
Ron Gidwitz
19%
Bill Brady
11%
Andy Martin
1%
Undecided
8%
I have linked to the full post on my blog: www.conservativeproletariat.blogspot.com
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