Someone tell this guy he's supposed to lose!

Those of us who follow Illinois politics for a living (or just for fun,) got a huge laugh two years ago when Democrat Michelle Chavez got elected to the General Assembly. She was a "plant" put on the ballot by what is left of the Cicero Republican machine to ensure the re-election of a Republican incumbent. Thanks to a huge Democratic turnout for the presidential election, Chavez won without running an actual campaign – proving Woody Allen’s line about success being based on just "showing up."

Is history about to repeat itself – this time in the 3rd Congressional District? Is the Lil’ Lipper so lame that he might actually lose to a candidate his own political organization planted in the race? Probably not, but things are starting to get interesting.

For those of you who have paid no attention to the 3rd CD Democratic primary -- and who could blame you, kind-of-sort-of incumbent Dan Lipinski (it’s hard to call someone an incumbent when his election was more-or-less fixed,) is being challenged by two largely unknown candidates with similar sounding Irish names, John P. Sullivan, an assistant state’s attorney; and John T. Kelly, a financial planner.

From the start, Kelly’s candidacy was greeted with a lot of winks and nods by Southwest Side pols. He clearly was a "plant," or so everyone thought, put on the ballot by Lipinski to confuse and divide the districts numerous Irish voters. Both the Daily Southtown and Tribune have run stories questioning Kelly legitimacy, as has Carol Marin in her Sun-Times column. After all, Kelly appeared to play ballot games on Lipinski’s behalf in the past. In 2004, Kelly filed as a Republican in the 3rd CD to help another Lipinski patsy, pretend Republican Ryan Chlada, emerge as Lipinski’s general election opponent. When no real Republican challenger filed in ‘04, Kelly’s vote-dividing presence in the primary was no longer necessary, so he quietly withdrew, leaving Chlada as the lone GOP candidate. Lipinski easily beat Chlada that November amid repeated media reports that Lipinski’s father put Chlada in the race as a "plant."

But if John Kelly is supposed to be a plant in this year’s Democratic primary, someone forgot to tell John Kelly. Unlike Michelle Chavez, Kelly is doing much more than just "showing up." First he joined Sullivan in bashing Lipinski a couple times in newspaper stories, then he sent out a decent mailer to the district’s hard D’s, and suddenly, as Pat Hickey observed in an earlier Illinoize post, Kelly’s campaign seems to be picking up momentum. Not only are his campaign signs showing up all over the district, he was endorsed today by the Chicago Sun-Times.

The smart money is still on Lipinski to win March 21st. He has the support of all the key ward organizations, including Mike Madigan’s. Organized labor is in his corner, too, which is important given the high number of union households in the district. And in the end, having two opponents dividing the anti-Lipinski vote will probably work as planned.

But you can’t help but think that the Lipinski forces are wishing they picked a different Irish guy to lay down for them.