Thursday, December 29, 2005

Even with Quigley out, African-American base makes Stroger tough to beat

Forget the recent media gushing about his unselfishness, Mike Quigley's choice to opt out of the Cook County Board President race grew out of his ability to do First Grade math, not his dedication to the "reform agenda" and a lack of ego.

Anyone who can count knew Quigley and Forrest Claypool had no chance in a three-way contest with John Stroger. But Quigley also realized that even in a one-on-one race, Stroger will be tough to beat. Stroger is battered and bruised and seemingly slipping into a scandal-a-week tail spin. But he still has a rare and powerful electoral combination on his side: monolithic African-American support and the backing of some key regular Democratic ward organizations.

Looking at the numbers, the 2002 Democratic primary for governor is probably the best measuring stick to use in handicapping "Stroger vs. Claypool." (The '02 contest was a three-way race, but it still gives us a good idea of how much African-American support Stroger will get in the March primary.) Just over 747,000 votes were cast in Cook County in the '02 Democratic primary. Turnout will probably be a little lower in '06, but now that Rod Blagojevich has opposition at the top of the ticket, it won't be dramatically lower. And the level of participation by minority voters figures to be similar.

In '02, Roland Burris got just over 265,000 primary votes in Cook County -- good for 35.5 percent. That figure, made up almost exclusively of black voters, is an indication of what Stroger's base of support will be in the '06 primary. Paul Vallas and Blagojevich combined for just over 481,000 Cook County votes in '02 -- which makes it safe to assume the county's non-black voters accounted for 64.5 percent of the primary electorate that year. Claypool is likely to soundly defeat Stroger among these voters in March. But to overcome Stroger's large base of support among African-Americans, Claypool must do better than "soundly defeat" Stroger in white and Hispanic precincts -- he has to absolutely crush him.

Let's be optimistic and say about 700,000 votes -- a nice round number -- are cast in the '06 County Board race. Assuming Stroger matches Burris' African-American turnout numbers, he starts out with a base of about 248,000 black votes (35.5 percent of the projected vote total). To increase his share of the total vote from 35.5 percent to just over 50 percent, Stroger would need to add just 103,000 white and Hispanic votes to his base of African-American support. In order to collect 103,000 white and Hispanic votes, Stroger needs only about 23 percent of the county's non-black vote.

It's hard to imagine Stroger getting less than a quarter of the white and Hispanic vote, because unlike Burris, he does have pockets of support in vote-rich areas outside of his African-American base. Stroger should win all the Southwest Side organization wards except the 23rd, which will either be neutral or with Claypool. The 11th, 13th, and the 19th Wards alone should produce near 30,000 votes for Stroger, that will get him close to one-third of the non-black votes he needs to win. Stroger will also enjoy near universal support from the unions, which should keep Claypool from rolling-up big numbers in white-majority, working class suburbs.

Stroger will have to be careful, though. He needs an energized African-American electorate in March, but the more he plays the race card to fire-up his base -- something he has done with increasing frequency -- the more he risks alienating the white voters he needs to produce his margin of victory. There are, however, a couple of ways for him to mitigate any racial backlash that might cost him white votes. First, Stroger's campaign should stress the role Cook County government plays in the criminal justice system. This will allow him to pose as a "law-and-order" candidate and appeal to white male voters. He did just that in 1998 when facing a tough female opponent in the general election. His campaign commercials that year featured images of inmates marching at the Cook County Jail Boot Camp, making it seem like Stroger was running for sheriff, not county board president. He should repeat those ads in '06.

Secondly, Stroger can more subtlety and more effectively play the race card by engaging Claypool in a bit of class warfare. He should paint Claypool as an uncaring, budget-cutting technocrat from an affluent North Side neighborhood -- a part of town where people don't need or want Cook County Hospital. "Who's going to take care of poor folks if we don't?" -- should be Stroger's mantra when he campaigns in the black community.

It's a cheap shot against Claypool, but not as cheap as comparing him to Ed Vrdolyak, as Stroger has done in the past. And class warfare, as opposed to racial politics, will create minimal white backlash on the Southwest Side and in the suburbs. And it might tug on the heart-strings of liberal white primary voters, too.

Of course, Stroger won't be campaigning in a vacuum. Claypool is a formidable challenger who will have Stroger playing defense most of the campaign. And most troublesome for Stroger, the controversies surrounding him could reach a critical mass. Like the Blagojevich administration, there's a chance the Stroger regime could be sent reeling by a pre-election indictment or two. If that happens, the above Election Day math begins to crumble.

Also, Stroger has developed a bad habit of being his own worst enemy. He inexplicably picked a pre-holiday fight with a long-time ally, State's Attorney Dick Devine. (Politics 101 reminder: don't take shots at anyone who can indict you.) And instead of ignoring his opponents during County Board meetings, he routinely takes the bait and engages them in long, silly arguments, which contributes to the perception that he has lost control of county government. What's more, all the fighting provides his critics with media coverage they otherwise wouldn't get.

Now that he's in a one-on-one race, Stroger badly needs to stop acting like his re-election is a foregone conclusion and start taking some advice from political pros -- something he's stubbornly refused to do for years. Soon, he will have to weather a stinging barrage of negative television advertising from Claypool. Those attacks will prove all the more damaging if Stroger continues to govern and campaign in an arrogant and undisciplined manner.

Stroger can't control what Patrick Fitzgerald does, but he can exert some control over his own rhetoric and his campaign message. He needs to grab hold of the reins soon. If not, he might piss away the political advantages he enjoys and put his re-election in jeopardy.

12 comments:

Anonymous,  5:07 PM  

It's a racial thing

fedup dem 5:19 PM  

Excuse me sir, but aren't we talking about John Stroger, who has been turning his back on the African-american community (outside of his own 8th Ward organization) in favor of kissing the Daley family's "Mistletoe" for the past four decadea? John Stroger, the last active link to the bad old days of the "Silent Six," blacks politicans who gave the Daleys huge pluralities in exchange for relative crumbs for their people?

Do you really think the African-American community in Cook County has forgotten that Stroger supported Richard M. Daley for Mayor in 1983, instead of Harold Washington? That Stroger backed Daley ally Dan Hynes for the U.S. Senate in the 2004 Primary instead of Barack Obama?

John Stroger has been an embarrassment to Cook County government and to the Democratic Party. When he makes appointments to key county positions, filling them with members of his ward organization or even his relatives, he has the audacity to claim that the appointed person is the “best-qualified” individual available for the post. Does Stroger think the people of Cook County, including his fellow African-American voters, are complete morons?

John Stroger has raised taxes. John Stroger runs a County Government that is both corrupt and incompetent. I could cite story after story about how Stroger has turned department after department of county government into employment agencies for his ward organization (as well as for members of John Daley’s 11th Ward). I could also cite stories about the cost overruns and the no-bid fixed contracts that plague the former Cook County Hospital, which now bears Stroger’s name as well as the effects of his mismanagement. But why bother? Everyone knows the shameful details.

The trouble is that when confronted with all these facts that condemn his administration and its record, Stroger suddenly realizes he has black skin. “It’s a racial thing,” Stroger is likely to cry out, trying to bamboozle the public into believing that all of these problems and allegations are due to racism, instead of the truth, which is that people are sick and tired of an administration that is totally wasteful and corrupt> The voters, regardless of the color of their skin, are fed up with a County Board President who chose four decades ago to place his loyalty to the Daley family ahead of the needs of the public in general or of his fellow African-Americans in particular. Does anyone in the African-American community, other than in Stroger’s 8th Ward or other cronies under his employ, believe such nonsense for even a second?

The Illinois Committee for Honest Government is proud to endorse Commissioner Forrest Claypool in the Democratic Primary for Cook County Board President. Claypool will put an end to the shoddy performance and shameful excuses that have marked John Stroger's three terms in office.

RANDALL SHERMAN

Secretary/Treasurer, Illinois Committee for Honest Government
Chicago

Anonymous,  6:01 PM  

Your Endorsment and $2.00 will get me on the CTA

Anonymous,  10:24 PM  

Someone put the Illinois Committee for Honest Government red Christmas endorsement book on my desk, it was small print and too wordy but well written and interesting. I don't know how much impact the endorsement has but it seems to be well reasoned (although the book did not endorse Claypool so I am assuming Sherman did that later) The Illinois Committee for Honest Government name is good and all over the place

Anonymous,  9:02 AM  

Isn't Sherman the aethiest who sues to stop the nativity scene and stuff like that? when did he start a good government group and is it anti-religious?

fedup dem 9:02 AM  

To Anon 10:24,

Thank you for your kind words in your comment. You are correct; the Illinois Committee for Honest Government formally endorsed Forrest Claypool on December 20, one day after Commissioner Mike Quigley announced he was stepping out of the race for Cook County Board President in favor of Claypool and nine days after we released our initial endorsement guide. (That guide, which included our comments that pointed out the need for either Quigley or Claypool to step asisde in order for the other to have a chance to defeat Stroger in March, is not the ICHG's final endorsrement list by any means. Our final endorsement list for the March 21 Primary will likely run four or five pages just to list all of the races, as opposed to this early list of endorsements that fit on a single page.)

Happy New Year to all,

RANDALL SHERMAN

Secretary/Treasurer, Illinois Committee for Honest Government

Yellow Dog Democrat 10:24 AM  

Sammy, as alays, you make great points, but you make some big assumptions, too, some of which are off base.

First, while Burris's total represents the drop dead African-American vote, do not underestimate Stroger's ability to do worse. As Sherman points out, Stroger is hardly the "Great Black Hope," although his non-stop boot-kissing of the Sherriff is a bigger liability than his ties to Daley. But let's also remember the abuses in minority contracting under Stroger, the lack of affordable housing, the collapse of the juvenile detention center and problems of the jail. Let's also not forget that, contrary to stereotype, African-American voters are also taxpayers, and they don't appreciate the thievery in Stroger's house more than anyone else.

And anyone who doesn't think the story of 50 year-old Shirley Glover has legs that are wrapped around Stroger's campaign is nuts. A 10-time convicted felon has strings pulled for her so she can get a county job, where she stole money that ended up in Stroger's campaign? This story is far from over.

As for the Machine Wards, don't count on Stroger there, either. Precinct Captains need to maintain their credibility, and Stroger -- who campaigns lustily on the need to increase taxes to maintain 8th Ward patronage -- is a very tough sell. He'll be an even harder sell after Jan. 1, when the Tribune, Sun-Times, Daily Southtown, and Daily Herald focus their microscope on the inner-workings of the Stroger regime.

Lipinski's top priority will be Lipinski and Madigan's top priority will be the Attorney General, Illinois House and Governor's office, in that order. Somebody will cut a deal with Claypool, it's just a question of who will be first.

Claypool's margin for error is very small, but this race isn't over by a long shot.

Anonymous,  12:38 PM  

All the numbers also assume the media will wake from their long nap on the Cook County beat and cover the race.
Based on history it is unlikely the alarm clock will ring in either the pressroom or any editors desk
Therefore, many will wonder who sent Claypool and opt to vote for Stroger.
John will get tons more white votes in Cook County than Burris.

Anonymous,  3:15 PM  

for those interested: stroger and claypool will begin the debate season at the evanston/north shore dfa link-up:

Current Cook County Board President John Stroger and challenger, Commissioner Forrest Claypool have both promised to attend. There will be a section of set questions followed by audience questions.

This is a unique opportunity to see these two gentlemen side by side and hear from them directly.

Please come and bring your friends!

Monday, January 9, 2006
7:30 PM

Celtic Knot
626 Church St
Evanston, IL 60201


more can be found at the dfa-evanston.org website!

Anonymous,  6:26 PM  

Rezko will hurt Stroger and Blagojevich.

Blacks will stick by Stroger but it depends on in what turnout and the percentage of that turnout.

If Stroger loses it will be good for Congressman Jackson for Mayor.

Stroger wouldn't know good government or reform if it bit him in the ass.

I like the Randall Sherman endorsement guide, it takes the whole election cycle to read it but it is good and gets around.
This year they are red like communist Christmas gifts and beat up and dirty but they do float around. The Coalition for Honest Governement gets around and they deserve credit.

Anonymous,  2:04 PM  

Stroger is an absolute CORRUPT and SICK JOKE
I am not necessarily a Claypool fan BUT I canNOT vote for Stroger
He is sick

Anonymous,  3:17 PM  

I don't like that Claypool is considered some type of reformer. Here is a guy, as Daley's Chief of Staff, helped set up much of the hired truck and illegal hiring processes. Went to the park district and slashed and burned the district-then fixed the hiring to load it with his cronies whom new nothing about park programs. Dumped his wife for his secratary and is generally considered to be a weasel. We would have been better off with Quigley

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