Even with Quigley out, African-American base makes Stroger tough to beat

Forget the recent media gushing about his unselfishness, Mike Quigley's choice to opt out of the Cook County Board President race grew out of his ability to do First Grade math, not his dedication to the "reform agenda" and a lack of ego.

Anyone who can count knew Quigley and Forrest Claypool had no chance in a three-way contest with John Stroger. But Quigley also realized that even in a one-on-one race, Stroger will be tough to beat. Stroger is battered and bruised and seemingly slipping into a scandal-a-week tail spin. But he still has a rare and powerful electoral combination on his side: monolithic African-American support and the backing of some key regular Democratic ward organizations.

Looking at the numbers, the 2002 Democratic primary for governor is probably the best measuring stick to use in handicapping "Stroger vs. Claypool." (The '02 contest was a three-way race, but it still gives us a good idea of how much African-American support Stroger will get in the March primary.) Just over 747,000 votes were cast in Cook County in the '02 Democratic primary. Turnout will probably be a little lower in '06, but now that Rod Blagojevich has opposition at the top of the ticket, it won't be dramatically lower. And the level of participation by minority voters figures to be similar.

In '02, Roland Burris got just over 265,000 primary votes in Cook County -- good for 35.5 percent. That figure, made up almost exclusively of black voters, is an indication of what Stroger's base of support will be in the '06 primary. Paul Vallas and Blagojevich combined for just over 481,000 Cook County votes in '02 -- which makes it safe to assume the county's non-black voters accounted for 64.5 percent of the primary electorate that year. Claypool is likely to soundly defeat Stroger among these voters in March. But to overcome Stroger's large base of support among African-Americans, Claypool must do better than "soundly defeat" Stroger in white and Hispanic precincts -- he has to absolutely crush him.

Let's be optimistic and say about 700,000 votes -- a nice round number -- are cast in the '06 County Board race. Assuming Stroger matches Burris' African-American turnout numbers, he starts out with a base of about 248,000 black votes (35.5 percent of the projected vote total). To increase his share of the total vote from 35.5 percent to just over 50 percent, Stroger would need to add just 103,000 white and Hispanic votes to his base of African-American support. In order to collect 103,000 white and Hispanic votes, Stroger needs only about 23 percent of the county's non-black vote.

It's hard to imagine Stroger getting less than a quarter of the white and Hispanic vote, because unlike Burris, he does have pockets of support in vote-rich areas outside of his African-American base. Stroger should win all the Southwest Side organization wards except the 23rd, which will either be neutral or with Claypool. The 11th, 13th, and the 19th Wards alone should produce near 30,000 votes for Stroger, that will get him close to one-third of the non-black votes he needs to win. Stroger will also enjoy near universal support from the unions, which should keep Claypool from rolling-up big numbers in white-majority, working class suburbs.

Stroger will have to be careful, though. He needs an energized African-American electorate in March, but the more he plays the race card to fire-up his base -- something he has done with increasing frequency -- the more he risks alienating the white voters he needs to produce his margin of victory. There are, however, a couple of ways for him to mitigate any racial backlash that might cost him white votes. First, Stroger's campaign should stress the role Cook County government plays in the criminal justice system. This will allow him to pose as a "law-and-order" candidate and appeal to white male voters. He did just that in 1998 when facing a tough female opponent in the general election. His campaign commercials that year featured images of inmates marching at the Cook County Jail Boot Camp, making it seem like Stroger was running for sheriff, not county board president. He should repeat those ads in '06.

Secondly, Stroger can more subtlety and more effectively play the race card by engaging Claypool in a bit of class warfare. He should paint Claypool as an uncaring, budget-cutting technocrat from an affluent North Side neighborhood -- a part of town where people don't need or want Cook County Hospital. "Who's going to take care of poor folks if we don't?" -- should be Stroger's mantra when he campaigns in the black community.

It's a cheap shot against Claypool, but not as cheap as comparing him to Ed Vrdolyak, as Stroger has done in the past. And class warfare, as opposed to racial politics, will create minimal white backlash on the Southwest Side and in the suburbs. And it might tug on the heart-strings of liberal white primary voters, too.

Of course, Stroger won't be campaigning in a vacuum. Claypool is a formidable challenger who will have Stroger playing defense most of the campaign. And most troublesome for Stroger, the controversies surrounding him could reach a critical mass. Like the Blagojevich administration, there's a chance the Stroger regime could be sent reeling by a pre-election indictment or two. If that happens, the above Election Day math begins to crumble.

Also, Stroger has developed a bad habit of being his own worst enemy. He inexplicably picked a pre-holiday fight with a long-time ally, State's Attorney Dick Devine. (Politics 101 reminder: don't take shots at anyone who can indict you.) And instead of ignoring his opponents during County Board meetings, he routinely takes the bait and engages them in long, silly arguments, which contributes to the perception that he has lost control of county government. What's more, all the fighting provides his critics with media coverage they otherwise wouldn't get.

Now that he's in a one-on-one race, Stroger badly needs to stop acting like his re-election is a foregone conclusion and start taking some advice from political pros -- something he's stubbornly refused to do for years. Soon, he will have to weather a stinging barrage of negative television advertising from Claypool. Those attacks will prove all the more damaging if Stroger continues to govern and campaign in an arrogant and undisciplined manner.

Stroger can't control what Patrick Fitzgerald does, but he can exert some control over his own rhetoric and his campaign message. He needs to grab hold of the reins soon. If not, he might piss away the political advantages he enjoys and put his re-election in jeopardy.