LaHood removed lingering doubt and gives Schock his endorsement

Is it really big news that Republican politicians (or those hoping to run for office again in he future) have endorsed GOP wünderkind Aaron Schock? Current 18th District Congressman Ray LaHood attended a press conference to officially endorse Schock, as did LaHood's predecessor, Bob Michel. Also tossing their support to Schock were John Morris and Jim McConoughey, who ran against Schock in the GOP primary.

At first blush, it seems like such a non-story. That Republicans are endorsing the Republican nominee isn't exactly a big surprise.

But, maybe this time it is at least a little bit of a surprise. Believe it or not, there was a bit of a doubt that LaHood would come through with an endorsement for Schock.

There were signs from the start that the sitting Congressman was miffed at Schock for not heeding his advice to wait a while before announcing he was he was going to for the the retiring LaHood's job. It's a certainty that state party bigwigs were annoyed at him for giving up a State House seat that almost certainly will return to the Democrats, and for doing so a few months after they dumped a lot of cash into getting him re-elected.

Then Schock was called out for perhaps violating federal election rules by, among other things, running his Congressional campaign out of the county GOP headquarters where he was renting space.

Also, LaHood was among those who expressed opposition to Schock's position (originally defended, and then excused away as some sort of joke) that the United States ought to give nuclear weapons to Taiwan if Communist China didn't stop arming Iran.

It's also a reality that Schock -- while talking like a moderate back home in Peoria -- talked like a conservative when talking to conservatives, and took a sharp turn to the right in the primary. LaHood, while popular throughout the large, mostly rural 18th District, is nevertheless a moderate who sometimes faces scorn from some of the conservatives Schock has been sucking up to recently.

For these reasons, many observers (including this blog) spent the months preceding the primary election waiting for the shoe to drop and for LaHood to endorse someone other that Schock, probably McConoughey.

But LaHood finally stated that he probably wouldn't make an endorsement, but would keep an eye on the campaigns and how they were being run. I took that statement as a warning to the Schock campaign to keep it clean. Schock gets good press for running clean campaigns, but that's only because Schock's people operate their whisper campaigns under the radar.

I kept hearing during the primary that the senior LaHood feared some sort of retaliation against son Darin LaHood, who is running for Peoria County State's Attorney against Democratic incumbent Kevin Lyons.

But the primary is over, so it's a cinch that LaHood would endorse Schock and be done with it, right? Wrong. Schock's opponent in the Democratic Party is Colleen Callahan, a woman who is well-known throughout the 18th District due to her work as a agriculture reporter. As is well-known now, Callahan once helped organize a fund-raiser for LaHood, who Callahan has praised for his support for Illinois agriculture.

I can only assume that LaHood would be inclined to think favorably about someone who went out of her way to cross party lines to help him raise campaign cash.

One Peoria blogger, Elaine Hopkins, recently said that LaHood was signaling during a recent meeting of the ACLU in Peoria that he might actually toss some electoral love Callahan's direction:

Another notable comment by Rep. LaHood was his referral to the Democratic nominee to replace him in the House as: "a very good and knowledgeable candidate here, in Colleen Callahan". That statement alone might not have been given a second-thought except that he never acknowledged, or even uttered the name of Ms. Callahan's GOP opponent. To several of us attending, it sounded almost like a subtle endorsement of Callahan. Interesting…

That was not to be, however.

Cross posted to Peoria Pundit.

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Schock's site lends a hand to Callahan

I looked over Colleen Callahan's official web site, and I have to say that, so far, it lacks real content. Except for providing readers with some contact information and a way to donate, there's not a lot there.

In other words, Aaron Schock's site has Colleen's beat all to Hell. Sorry, guys. Maybe that will change.

But not all is lost. Schock's campaign is so itent on making a case that his huge campaign warchest makes him invulnerable to challengers, the site links to a Springfield State Journal-Register article about how Callahan has to play catch-up in the cash-raising biz.

The problem (for Schock) is that this article didn't just talk about cash. The article humanized Callahan by introducing people to members of her family. I imagine not many people know that her daughter, Brittney Burns, is a top-notch lawyer with tons of experience fighting crime and working with the legislature. Sounds to me like she's be a huge asset to her mom if she gets elected to Congress.

The message seems to be that Schock is the front runner 'cause he has a ton of cash, while Callahan has her smart and politically talented family on her side.

Were I operating her site, I'd be sure to link to the same article.

Crossposted to Peoria Pundit.

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Dirty tricks on the Web from the Schock campaign? Kinda doubt it ... (UPDATED 2x)

Does Colleen Callahan (Democratic congressional candidate the 18th District) have a campaign Website yet? Anyone who's looking for one might stumble across this one: CallahanforCongress.com.

Methinks it's NOT her site. Except for the disclaimer "Copyright. Callahanforcongress. All rights reserved" and a link to GoDaddy.com, the only content is a picture of a cute little girl (emma.jpg) wearing a shirt with a "Callahan for Congress" decal, complete with a red-white-and-blue Democratic donkey. With a red slash drawn through it. Like in "Democrats prohibited."

Like I said, PROBABLY not the site of someone who is running as a Democrat.

There's a debate going on in the comments section of this post. Someone accused the Aaron Schock (current 92nd district state rep, running for 18th District for the GOP) camp of creating the site. One of my readers posted the WHOIS information for callahanforcongress.com stating that the owner of the site is John Callahan of State College, PA.

I did a Google search. There is a John Callahan with that telephone number. But there's no news articles anywhere about a guy with that name from that city who's running or thinking of running for Congress.
The mayor of Bethlehem, PA, is also named John Callahan. He might conceivably be interested in running for Congress, but one would think he would have an address in Bethlehem. And as a Democrat, I doubt he'd post a pic of anyone wearing a slashed-out Democratic Party symbol.

The site was registered on Jan. 17. I and other media broke the story that she was running on Jan. 24, but it was common knowledge amongst the political illuminati for a some time before then. So it'c conceivable someone in the Schock campaign or someone who wanted to help decided to throw together a placeholder Web site in a dastardly plot to deny Colleen a simple and easy-to-remember domain name for her campaign. And with the fast financial resources at their disposal, they found some dude in State College to be their willing thrall.

Yeah. It's possible. Seems an awful lot of trouble to go through when colleenforcongress.com is still available. As is vote4callahan.com.

A quick phone call tomorrow will clear up the confusion. I hope. "Cause I don't want to spend the next eight months debating silly crap like this.

UPDATE: Left a voicemail message at 11 a.m.

UPDATE: Courtesy of Dave Dahl, I now have two links for Colleen Callahan campaign: Citizens for Callahan and Colleen Callahan for Congress. I'll look 'em over and pass judgment later today. It looks like the nefarious scheme to deprive her of a campaign website has failed.

Crossposted to PeoriaPundit

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Will the 18th District go Democratic like the 14th?

The answer: Maybe. But if it does, it won't be for the same reasons.

For those Peorians who don't follow state politics (thanks in no small part to the local media's general disinterest in the subject) were was some huge news Saturday. Democrat Bill Foster, a political unknown, defeated millionaire GOP foe Jim Oberweis in a special election to replace Dennis Hastert as Congressman from the 14th District.

Foster will serve the remainder of Hastert's term, and will have to face re-election in the November general election. His foe then will likely be Oberweis again. Which, in my opinion, is good news for Foster.

Consider the implications o the win. The far-west suburban district has been considered a Republican stronghold. But changing demographics and a general dissatisfaction with the GOP has tilted the district more Democratic.

There's speculation that this might mean trouble for another Congressional district that's traditionally been a sure win for the GOP -- the 18th District. After all, incumbent Congressman Ray LaHood is retiring.

My advice to the Dems is to not get cocky. A lot of factors played out in the 14th that don't affect the 18th.

First, I doubt that 18th's demographics have changed all that much since last election. Maybe there's some data bearing this out. There's been a lot of overall growth in that district as working class folks from Chicago are moving in. Not so much here in central Illinois.

Second, Aaron Schock is no Jim Oberweis. Love him or hate him, Schock has proven himself capable of winning elections. Oberweis has proven nothing, except that voters don't like him. The millionaire dairyman has been able to buy his way past the primaries a couple of times, but in the end has been rejected by voters four times in the last six years.

For reasons I have expressed before, I don't think Schock is as strong as his supporters think he is. And I also do not think opponent Colleen Callahan is a weak candidate in the least. And I agree that if Barack Obama heads the ticket, Callahan is is really good shape in November.

The importance of Foster's victory in the 14th is that it's red meat to the troops. The last Democrat who came close to winning was G. Douglas Stephens back when he first ran against Bob Michael. And he did it with the support of rank-and-file Democrats who felt tossed to the side of the road by the economy. They didn't get a lot of help from the national party, and I would advise them to not count on any help this time around, either.

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New perspective on Schock's link to the NRCC scandal

A GOP friend with experience helping run a Congressional campaign doubts very much that the Aaron Schock 18th District campaign -- or any Congressional candidate -- benefited from any of the financial irregularities being investigated at the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Last week, the Schock campaign (as well as other candidates) fired its campaign treasurer Christopher J Ward after news reports identified him as the central figure in an investigation into irregularities at the NRCC.

Steve Schearer told the press that he not only never met Ward (he was hired on his reputation alone), Ward never touched the money that had been donated to Schock.

I found that odd, and speculated that Shearer was trying to establish plausible deniability should the scandal reach the Schock campaign.

I just got off the phone with a GOP friend. This person was deeply involved at a high level in different GOP Congressional campaign during a previous election cycle . This campaign also hired Ward. While Ward was on record as their campaign treasurer, Ward never met high ranking campaign officials, nor did he have any access to the funds. Ward was sent copies of checks and invoices and bills, then used them to compile financial reports that were electronically fired with the Federal Election Commission. Ward charged them $2,000 quarterly.

Why hire Ward, a former NRCC staffer who worked as a vendor out of NRCC offices? My source says that most people just do not realize how "painful" the FEC financial reporting process is. He doubts there is anyone in Peoria who could do it.

Because of Ward's lack of access to that campaign's funds, my source is not worried that they lost any money, or that money was funneled into that campaign. The source says it's foolish to even try, because not only is the FEC ruthless in demanding documentation, the FEC reports are poured over by the local and national media looking for discrepancies.

My two cents: Several days ago, I thought this story had legs and would turn into an investigation into the candidates whose campaigns hired ward. After this conversation, Shearer's statements seem much more plausible to me.

Nevertheless, I must remind myself of something that is true of people who break the rules: They think they can get away with it. I wouldn't want to tangle with the FEC. But hubris is a common trait among those who dabble in politics.

I don't think this will go far beyond Ward. But you never know.

Cross posted to Peoria Pundit.

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Nuclear hawk Schock chickening out of foreign policy debate

As discussed earlier, State Rep. Aaron Schock is saying he cannot attend Wednesday's 18th District candidates' debate on foreign policy issues. It seems that Gov. Rod Blagojevich has called a special session to find a way to bail out the Chicago's mass transportation system.

Schock just couldn't possible miss this session because whether or not Chicagoans have to pay more for their ride to work is of such importance to voters in Peoria County. The Journal Star has details here.

The whole thing seemed to coincidental to me. Schock just happens to be forced to miss a debate where his two opponents for Congress can revisit the most embarrassing gaffe of the Schock campaign -- his plan to sell nuclear weapons to Taiwan. It would violate the nuclear anti-proliferation treaty and almost certainly create a shooting war with China. Schock was vilified in the national press and blogs all across the country. State newspapers ran editorial cartoons showing him straddling a bomb, like a scene from Dr. Strangelove:



Because this is the 21st century and there's this little thing called "the Internet," I was able to scour the Web looking for evidence on whether or not Schock really was needed in Springfield on the evening of this debate.

It took me, oh, about three seconds. I clicked on Rich Miller's Capital Fax Blog, which led me to this post on the Chicago Tribune blog Clout Street,

I found these paragraphs describing this week's "special session:"

"We are not going to vote for anything this week," said Rep. Julie Hamos (D-Evanston), who has led two failed efforts to find money for the region’s transit agencies.

Though Gov. Rod Blagojevich issued his call for a special session before Christmas, many lawmakers are not expected to show up for Wednesday’s scheduled meeting. Included on that list is Senate President Emil Jones (D-Chicago), who has tickets for the Rose Bowl pitting University of Illinois against the University of Southern California in Pasadena. Jones’ spokeswoman did not return calls. House Speaker Michael Madigan (D-Chicago) also is not expected to turn out Wednesday.

As for the governor, he's planning on holding a news conference in Chicago Wednesday to talk up the mass transit issue before heading to Springfield. Blagojevich has not yet scheduled any meetings this week with legislative leaders, his spokeswoman said.

The leaders of the House and Senate won't be there. No one is going to vote on anything, because there are no meetings scheduled to create any legislation for anyone to vote on.

And even if there were any meetings, Schock won't be part of them, because he's in the minority party. And hold onto your hats, Schock is in reality a relatively minor player in the state GOP. He NOT in anything remotely close to a leadership position.

If he is going to be in Springfield on Wednesday evening, he won't be on the house floor. And if he is, he'll be very, very lonely.

Folks, this "special session" is nothing more than a photo-op for Blagojevich. Everyone knows it, except for, perhaps, the local mainstream media, which doesn't really follow state politics all that much. And because of that lack of coverage, Schock thinks the public is so ill-informed that he can get away with using the situation to duck out of an uncomfortable situation.

And besides, shouldn't we all just stop worrying and love the bomb?

But give Schock some credit. He plans to attend a televised debate on WEEK on January 14, even though there will be *gasp* video cameras.

Crossposted to Peoria Pundit.

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Former State Rep Bill Edley might toss his hat in ring for 18th District run

I spoke by phone to former State Rep. Bill Edley (D-95, Macomb) a few moments ago. He was just as shocked as everyone else by Dick Versace's decision to drop out of the race for Congress. In fact, he had sent a campaign donation to Versace's campaign a week or so earlier.

But the former state representative might consider asking the county chairs of the Democratic Party in the 18th District to place his name on the ballot for the general election.

"I would think the Democrats would find many people Interested in running," Edley said. "If they don't, I would consider it."

Edley thinks Versace's campaign wobbled at bit at the beginning, but the ideal strategy for the Democrats is to let the Republicans beat each other up in the primary, spending time and money and generating hurt feelings within their party. That's still going to happen between now and when the Democratic Party chairs pick a replacement after the primary election on February 5. The general election happens nine months later on Nov. 4, giving the eventual Democratic candidate plenty of time.

"In some respects it really not a bad situation for the Democrats," Edley said. "We've made these things way too long, anyway."

Edley did not have kind words for Aaron Schock, the current 92nd District state representative who is considered by some to the the most likely nominee from among a field of three in the GOP primary. Jim McConoughey, CEO of the Heartland Partnership, and former Peoria City Council member John Morris also are putting up credible campaigns to be the one to replace Ray LaHood in the 18th District.

"He's in way over his head. He's a self promoter," Edley said of the 26-year-old Schock. Edley complained that Schock is basing his decisions on conservative ideology, not practical experience, as demonstrated by the positions taken during his campaign kick off speech. One such position was that the United States ought to use the threat of nuclear weapons sales to Taiwan to pressure China to change it's behavior with Iran.

"You could see the kid written it himself and never vetted it with any one."

ALSO: Kudos to the Journal Star's Brenda Rothert for breaking the story about Dick Versace dropping out. Karen McDonald, whose beat includes the 18th District race, managed to get reaction from state and local pols. She also bylined this story, based on a Congressional Quarterly report, about how Aaron Schock is one of the top donation-getters in this year's congressional races.

Oh, and you know that totally unfair and unfounded rumor that Cindy Ardis-Jenkins was running for the Republican nomination for Aaron Schock's 92nd District Illinois House seat only because she would be willing to drop out of the race is he didn't win the GOP nomination for the 18th District seat in Congress? After all, she works for Schock as his neighborhood liaison. Well, the deadline for dropping out is Wednesday, and she considering dropping out. Good catch by Karen McDonald, who had a busy day yesterday.

Adris-Jenkins' brother is Jim Ardis, who happens to be mayor if the City of Peoria, the biggest city in the 18th district. He's endorsed Jim McConoughey. One hopes politics doesn't come up during holiday get togethers.

Cross posted to Peoria Pundit.

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It's official: Aaron Schock is running for Congress

I'm surprised, but I'm not surprised.

There was a part some of me that thought, "Ya know. Even someone as ambitious as State Rep. Aaron Schock has got to think that there are a lot of voters out there who just don't think someone as young as he is ought to be in Congress."

But then there is a BIGGER part of my brain that says. "Of course he was going to run. What was he going to do instead? Serve another 20 years in Springfield waiting for some other guy to retire so he can have his turn?" No, Schock is all about not waiting for his turn. He knows politics isn't about sharing and playing nice. It's about winning and not being afraid of losing.

So as soon as it was official that Ray LaHood wasn't going to see re-election for the 18th District seat in the House, Schock was on the phone scooping up endorsements. Why wait? Is he qualified? Well, he meets the official qualifications, but the only un-official qualification is whether or not voters will vote for him. Voters didn't care much about his youth and inexperience when he won a write-in campaign for school at District 150. And his youth and inexperience didn't matter when he defeated an incumbent to win a seat in the General Assembly and again when he beat a city council member who was backed by the Speaker of the House.

So, yeah. I'm gonna have to say that unless the still-popular Bob Michel comes out of retirement, Schock is the one to beat for the nomination.

If you listen to conventional wisdom, that means Schock is going to be out new Congressman because history shows that the 18th is a lock for the GOP. However, a case can be made that the 18th District's reputation as a GOP stronghold is overblown because of circumstances. LaHood's only serious foe was G. Douglas Stephens, an attorney who earlier had failed to beat Michel. No one else could even be considered a serious candidate. And in all fairness to Ray LaHood, he worked his ass off to service all 20 counties in the district.

Despite Schock's rep as campaigner, I think he's beatable in the general election. Consider that Ricca Slone (the incumbent Democrat he beat for the State House) was unpopular even in her own party because of a perceived (and somewhat exaggerated) reputation for lack of service to her district. She also failed to mend fences with the old guard in her own party, who remained ticked-off at her for defeating Don Saltzman in the primary. And while I consider Bill Spears a friend, his candidacy failed because he decided to let Speaker Mike Madigan run things. The campaign took too long to start advertising, and when they did, they was often unoriginal copies of commercials they were running across the state for other candidates.

But this time, there are a lot of strong, experienced Democratic politicians considering a run, many with ties outside Peoria. And one would think that without an incumbent in the race, the Democrats at the national level will finally make an effort to field a good candidate with plenty of financial and tactical support (both of which were pretty much denied Stephens)

Therefore, I think it's far from certain that Schock or any Republican will win. Yes, the district has gone GOP since before World War 1. But there's a lot of stuff up in the air right now. The GOP at the state and national level is reeling from losses. Nationally, the GOP is saddled with perhaps the most unpopular president ever. In Illinois, we've got perhaps the worst governor in the nation, but Democratic voters proved in 2006 that they just don't care as lost as they get theirs. And depending on what U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald does, we might even have Pat Quinn as governor in 2008.

Cross Posted to Peoria Pundit.

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