Whole New Ballgame in 17th

Before I begin, a little disclosure. Most everyone knows I work operationally for David McSweeney in the 8th Congressional District. Most people also know that Appellate Judge Stephen McGlynn from the 5th Judicial District is one of my dearest friends - and that we speak regularly. While many are aware I ran Andrea Zinga's general election campaign last time, most are probably not aware I remain her general consultant.

I write sparingly of those races in which I am directly involved. That will continue to be the case, but it is not as sensitive an issue as before the primary. Everyone knows I am a partisan Republican. Nonetheless, anytime I speak of any of those races, I will give a specific disclosure. But this should serve as a general disclosure on the three races that are of primary importance to me.

With the decision of incumbent Democrat Lane Evans to withdraw as a candidate, the Zinga campaign spoke yesterday with representatives from the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC). Washington will be significantly involved in this race.

Zinga caught a lot of heat last time for bringing up Evans' health problems in the campaign. Oddly enough, she only raised the issue once - in her announcement as a candidate in the 2004 Republican Primary. In the general election, we never brought it up. Nonetheless, the die was cast. We held near weekly press conferences, covering issues from the need for improvements to the locks and dams systems, judicial activism, infrastructure needs, plans for stopping the hemhorraging of jobs from the district, agricultural policy and on and on. No matter what we talked about, though, the refrain from Evans office was the same non-sequitur - "tell her to stop talking about my health." It was an astonishing education for me. I am accustomed to dealing with the media in Chicago, Springfield and St. Louis, which would never allow such a continuing string of non-sequiturs to go unchallenged.

While most of the press in the middle and southern portions of the district covered the issues we discussed, much of the Quad Cities media (the most populous portion of the district) acted as if health was the only thing she talked about when it was the one thing in the general election she never initiated. Bizarre.

The district had always been a puzzle to me. Every term that Evans served saw two or three major employers pack up and leave - and the collapse of civilian employment at the Rock Island Arsenal. Speaking with CEO's they would tell you if trouble arose, they could rarely get an audience with Evans, much less assistance. If a neighboring Congressman like Ray LaHood or Denny Hastert didn't intervene, when a company reported clouds of trouble on the horizon in the 17th, you could pretty well count on it being a goner. The district bleeds jobs like a hemophiliac.

Evans won handily again in 2004. But lost by many in the shuffle was that Zinga, running a shoestring campaign, produced more Republican votes than had ever been cast in either that or the old, much more Republican district.

While I expect a rash of media rehash of the old health issue, this time the Quad Cities media will be hard-pressed to follow the same old storyline. Meantime Zinga will have real resources. She will also begin with greater name recognition throughout the district than whoever her opponent happens to be.

One of her biggest advantages, though, may well be an unintended consequence of drawing the district to protect Evans six years ago. It is one of the most gerrymandered districts in the country. Most Congressional Districts have a single, dominant regional base. Not so with Illinois 17th. No matter who the Democrats select, there is going to be substantial grumbling. If, as expected, they tap someone from Rock Island County, it will confirm southern Democrats' fear they are just an afterthought. If, on the other hand, they select a southerner, it surely will infuriate Rock Islanders who regard it as "their" seat.

And there is the irony: Evans won the seat in an upset over a divided Republican Party. Zinga now has a legitimate shot at evening that score.