Thursday, January 19, 2006

Democrat Lindy Scott Clears 100K In 6th Congressional Race - Readies For Primary Battle

[Cross-posted at WurfWhile.com]

The Lindy Scott campaign in the 6th Congressional District raised over $103,000 by the end of last quarter (December 31) and has about $80,000 cash on hand for the upcoming primary. By traditional standards this is not a ton of money - but Scott's campaign is not a traditional campaign, and in the end it might be enough.

Browsing through Lindy Scott's list of endorsements one notices a number of things. First, this isn't a traditional endorsement list. Lindy has developed a number of diverse connections with voters of all backgrounds, from a stay-at-home mom, a manufacturing plant manager and a CPA to a retired public school superintendent, a manager at McDonalds and a Lucent Technologies retiree. Second, there certainly are a number of people with religious-oriented occupations or affiliations, including many from Scott's employer, the evangelical Wheaton College. But even a casual glance will show a critical constituency in Scott's coalition that the press has too often overlooked in focusing on Scott's religious connections - Scott's Latino base. A final thought on the list - a lot of these people are already people who organize, interact and train members of the public. For a campaign like Scott's, which cannot rely on money to mobilize message - or traditional political heavyweights to weigh in, these are exactly the people you want to have working for you.

While Lindy Scott, who lived in Mexico and speaks Spanish fluently, will pick up the endorsement of a Spanish newspaper this Friday, his campaign to woo Latinos goes much deeper than this official recognition. The Scott campaign has a 12 member Latino sub-committee devising strategy and outreach, scores of Spanish speaking volunteers walking heavily Latino precincts and dozens of posters in Latino businesses. Beyond Latino endorsements, the Scott campaign has also reached out to and received endorsements from Pakistani Americans, Filipino Americans and Indian Americans among other groups.

Traditionally Latinos do not vote heavily - and the 6th District is only about 12.5% Latino. But a quarter of the district doesn't speak English at home and almost 20% of it is foreign born. The combination of Lindy's extensive religious and Latino connections, his years spent living abroad in Mexico and his unassuming, charismatic and winning personality could take the Scott campaign pretty far. Independent of my own analysis, when one reads or hears descriptions of debates and forums where Scott is easily compared with the other Democratic candidates in the race, the presumed frontrunners Christine Cegelis and Ladda "Tammy" Duckworth, what strikes one is how often supporters of other candidates praise Scott's performance and find that, sometimes with reservations because of his religious background, they nonetheless could support Scott for congress. That says a lot. In a three-way race with neither candidate a natural attraction for Scott's evangelical, Latino and "Democrats for Life" base, that mainstream appeal may even say enough.

Lindy Scott is by far not a likely winner in the 6th District Democratic Primary - but if he can turn out his Latino, ethnic and non-traditional Democratic base, attract cross-over votes (presumably mostly from evangelicals and alienated GOP voters attracted to his religious background and/or abortion stance) he might do a lot better than most people think. With limited funds, Scott volunteers will need to cover the district in shoe leather instead of paper mailers - and organizational ability will be key. If Scott's organization is up to the challenge, it could happen.

2 comments:

fedup dem 10:13 AM  

The key point that you failed to note is that while 20% of the population in the district may be foreign-born, many of those individuals are yet citizens, and thus cannot vote for anyone. The important percentages are the percentages of those who will actually be voting in the election.

Hiram 9:48 PM  

Hi Randall,

Absolutely a fair point. I'll see if I can find those numbers.

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