Conventional Wisdom on Governor's Race Isn't

Every media outlet worth its salt is touting State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka as the GOP's great white hope to take the governor's mansion from Democrat Rod Blagojevich. While I am personally fond of Topinka, I think her nomination would lead many of us in the GOP to long for the good old days of Alan Keyes.

The irony is that in a head to head battle Topinka would have a reasonable shot at ousting Blagojevich. Problem is it would come at the cost of devastating Republicans in the down-ballot races. In southern Illinois, where the GOP has quietly been making gains while Chicago and suburban organizations have gone on life support, we would see a bloodbath.

The media sees Topinka as a moderate - and that is probably a fair assessment of her. Her views differ little from those of businessman Ron Gidwitz. Yet if Gidwitz were to win the nomination, few Republicans of any ideological stripe would stay home for the general in protest.
The difference is in how the two relate to the Republican base. Gidwitz has been rock solid in his support of Republicans. Topinka frequently plays footsie with Democrats - and sometimes overtly supports them. Though Gidwitz is a moderate, there are a raft of cases where he has passionately worked on behalf of conservatives. When Gidwitz is challenged on, say, his softness on the Right-to-Life issue, his response is to note that...while I don't agree with you on everything, I share your commitment to putting an end to partial-birth abortion and making parental notification the law of the state. When Topinka is challenged on the same, her response is some variation of...when are you nutjobs going to figure out that only a moderate can win in Illinois?

Topinka has, at times, been unjustly maligned by conservative activists. Her response, though, has always been calculated to inflame, rather than damp down, the situation. And she has shown the same casual contempt for conservatives who actually try to work with her. Last year, when asked on a Chicago radio station who should replace her as party chairman, she replied it had to be Andy McKenna or one of the "crazies" would get it. There were several good reasons to support McKenna - his ties to the Chicago business community, his ability to raise money, and the finance committee's endorsement of him. But McKenna's main challenger was Steve McGlynn, a conservative who was Topinka's co-chairman. Perfectly fine for her to support McKenna, but to casually dismiss a conservative who had worked loyally with her for several years as just another "crazy" illuminated her mindset.

Gidwitz plays by the same rules he asks everyone else to play by - support the Republican nominee vigorously even if you have some ideological differences. Topinka goes out of her way to insult and undercut even those conservatives who try to work with her. In some cases, she overtly supports the Democrat. And she expects conservatives to rally round her candidacy? It's not going to happen.

The odds are she won't get the chance, regardless of media enthusiasm and infusions of Washington money (yes, Washington is weighing in on her behalf. Much as I admire this White House, it has had nothing but a tin ear concerning Illinois Republican politics; perhaps because Illinois has played no role in its election strategies or perhaps because Bob Kjellander is its primary source of local intelligence). She always needed a heavy crossover of Democratic voters to pull it off. With Ed Eisendrath challenging Blagojevich in the Democratic primary, the multitudes of Democratic voters who are disgusted with the governor can stay home to cast their protest vote.

Meantime, conservative Republican voters fear a Topinka administration would consist of four years of trying to destroy conservatives from within the party followed by a sitting Republican governor heading up "Republicans for Lisa Madigan" in 2010. So they are focused on uniting behind a single candidate.

As things stand the gubernatorial primary is evolving into a head-to-head clash between Topinka and businessman Jim Oberweis. While activists are concerned about Oberweis' past penchant for making critical errors, he has a solid organization and the resources to run hard. State Sen. Bill Brady, whose campaign was coming on strong during the summer and early fall, hit the doldrums during Jim Edgar's hamlet routine and has never recovered its lost momentum. If Oberweis did make a big blunder, it could put Brady back into the ballgame. But Oberweis is aware that this time he is in position to win and will be very careful to fully vet his public pronouncements. Gidwitz has a ton of money and is willing to spend it. He has two problems, though. As accomplished as he is, he just does not connect well with voters. He does not have what, in media circles, is called a strong Q-factor. Second, even if he begins to make inroads, it comes at Topinka's expense, not Oberweis'.

There are two and a half months to go. A lot can happen in that time. But under current dynamics, the finish line to the Republican Gubernatorial Primary will look a lot like this:

Oberweis - 44%
Topinka - 36%
Gidwitz - 12%
Brady - 8%

You might want to save this in hopes of taunting me later.