GOP Gubernatorial Race Remains Volatile

Last night's debate did not change my mind about who I will vote for for governor; I would have had to have it made up for that to happen. I have already changed it six or seven times since this whole business began late last winter. Most of my closest friends in politics have done the same. For people who do this stuff full-time that is nearly unheard of - and that's why this is the most volatile race in recent memory. Less than two months away from election nobody is scoring any big points. It's as if we were going into the 12th inning of a 0-0 tie. One big play could win it.

Certainly, each campaign has its own spin on how things are going, some which bear remarkably little relation to reality.

I hear routinely from people near Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka that she is so far ahead of everyone else that the rest of the field is hopelessly tilting at windmills. Some are generously trying to help me keep from making a fool of myself. Ahhh, what's the fun in life if you can't make a fool of yourself on occasion? And besides, I've heard that a hundred times in different campaigns - about half the time I'm right and everyone else is wrong and half the time I'm wrong and everyone else is right. I can live with that. (A commenter recently suggested a drinking game in which players would take a drink every time I said I in a post. Warning: for those who are playing, do not drive past this point).

At last night's debate Topinka boasted the most experience and seemed the least informed. Missing, too, was her usual high-octane enthusiasm. Truth be told, she looked downright grim. It does strike me as strategically sound that Topinka waited until the last minute to get into the race, trying to effectively shorten the cycle and to avoid talking about specific issues. She does not match up well with the primary electorate, a fact that has been partly masked by holding a non-ideological down-ballot office. The longer and more closely she is scrutinized the clearer that becomes, so effectively shortening the season makes sense.

But if one is going to sell the notion that she is head and shoulders above the field, she needs in her rare public forums to sound at least as knowledgable as the people she purports to be head and shoulders above. But she is helped by the fact that Ed Eisendrath's challenge in the Democratic Primary to Gov. Rod Blagojevich is looking more and more like a non-starter. Topinka has always needed Democratic crossovers to ensure victory.

Businessman Jim Oberweis projected confidence and humor. He long ago solidified the support of the hard base. But that base alone only accounts for about 25% of primary voters - and Oberweis had often solidified their support in ways that scared others off his campaign. He went a long way last night to reassuring them he will not be a divisive scold.

Oberweis tries to sell the notion that this is a two-person race between him and Topinka. If he stays disciplined and cheery, that might become true. But past missteps have made people wary of him. A major blunder or a public blowup - or even a true but red-faced, angry tirade could knock him out of the race. He has to campaign as both an authentic reformer and a uniter. Still, though I have written about the 'corruption tax' that Oberweis so frequently spoke about last night, I doubt it is the $1 billion he estimated it to be and I don't think he can pay for everything with it.

People who watched the debate saw what has made State Sen. Bill Brady so tantalizing to so many in the GOP this cycle. More than any other candidate he has a Reaganesque charm and cheery nature. I have described him before as a rookie pitcher with a blazing fastball and a curve that will buckle your knees - but no control. You drool to watch him when he's at his best and hope that he will turn out to be Sandy Koufax rather than Rick Ankiel (if you don't know who Ankiel was, that's the point). But whatever you eventually expect from him, few who have watched him for a year or more think he's ready for the bigs. The reality is his campaign operation is thin, which makes it very difficult to project his cheery message in the field. And for his disciplined sunniness last night, earlier in the day he had launched into Oberweis at the City Club of Chicago with hammer and tong. While some who were there saw some amusement value in seeing Operweis on the receiving, rather than giving, end of an intemperate attack, it is the sort of wildness I'm speaking of.

Businessman Ron Gidwitz undoubtely lost on style points (no bon mots or witty rejoinders) but he knocked it out of the park on substance. Far more than anyone else on stage he had specific, credible plans for the problems he addressed. He spoke more in the language of the boardroom than in ways designed to effectively convey some complex concepts to a general audience, but he struck me as having the best grasp of specifics and how to translate it into effective policy. It struck me that when Topinka said we need a grown-up to be governor, I thought of Gidwitz.

I can think of credible scenarios by which any of these candidates could win the nomination. Topinka certainly has a lead, but it is not nearly as big as she thinks it is. Oberweis is coming on and has the best chance of any of his races to come away with the nomination, but his chances are more precarious than he imagines them to be - and he isn't yet as close as he thinks he is. He needs to run almost mistake-free as the race heats up.

Brady is beginning to make a pretty good case that he is a big part of the future of the GOP, but he needs several big events to break his way in order to be competitive this time.

I'm beginning to think Gidwitz might be the tortoise in this race. Certainly, he doesn't hit any home runs. But he doesn't strike out or hit into double plays either. In a race in which no candidate is running away with things, small ball might be just the thing that wins. The White Sox did it just a few months back.