Friday, January 26, 2007

Illinois To Lose Another Congressional Seat

Projecting population trends among the 50 states redistricting consultant Clark Bensen of Polidata Incorporated predicts that Illinois will be among the state that lose representation in the United States Congress.

For all but one decade I have lived in Illinois, its relative share of the country’s population has declined enough for us to lose a congressman.

There were

· 25 during the 1950’s
· 24 during the 1960’s
· 24 during the 1970’s
· 22 during the 1980’s
· 20 during the 1990’s
· 19 during the 2000’s
Other projected losers:
Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New York (-2), Ohio (-2) and Pennsylvania
If the Democrats will just raise our income taxes 67%, maybe we lose two seats.

Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, Texas (+2) and Utah.
Thanks to Paul Richardson at Capitol Fax Blog for the tip pointing me to The Thicket story by Tim Storey.

Posted first at McHenry County Blog, a blog that does not go to sleep over the weekend.


GreenCutip 11:38 PM  

I hope the efforts to give DC voting representation in the House succeeds. I mean, if the logic goes that if they contribute to who gets elected to the White House, they should be able to have a voice on Capital Hill.

Levois 12:57 AM  

I guess the question is why are people leaving Illinois? Is there anything that can keep people in the state?

Anonymous,  7:56 AM  

What's happening here ??? And, what about all the new jobs & prosperity "Bladgo" is always tooting about ??

Milton 9:16 AM  

I hope they take from downstate. Because that is were they are leaving.


--- Prof. Leland Milton Goldblatt

The Jack Abramoff scandal is more than a scandal; it is a cause for international shame. It is also the story of how religious zealots, terrorists and fanatics took over the United States government, undermined our foreign interests, ruined our credibility, and cost us our prestige as a trustworthy world leader, while leading more than 2000 US soldiers and Marines to their deaths along with thousands of innocent Muslims and others, in pursuit of a fantasy that they call Zionist Israel.

Pat Collins 12:18 PM  

Of course, it's immigration that is driving up US population.

As for DC, why not just give it back to Maryland? What is wrong with that? Shrink the district to 2 or 3 blocks around the white house and congress.

Frank,  6:45 PM  

What seat would you prefer taken from downstate... the first one or the second one? South of Springfield, there are only 2 seats. What proof do you have that people are leaving from downstate opposed to upstate.

steve schnorf 11:01 PM  

The last few times I've checked, Illiois' population has been growing, not shrinking. Jesus!

John Ruberry 11:17 PM  

To be fair to geography, Lane Evan's old district, the gerrymandered one, should go.

Rock Island to Decatur? Puh-leaze!

muon,  2:08 PM  

Illinois population is growing, but only at about half the national average. The low growth rate causes the state to fall behind and lose a seat each cycle. By my projections the state will be about 70,000 people short of its 19th seat in 2010.

By projecting from Census data at the county level it looks like an almost even 2/3 of the population in Chicagoland (Cook, DuPage, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry, and Will) and 1/3 in the rest of the state. Depending on the details of the map drawn in 2011, that means 12 districts in Chicagoland and 6 districts downstate.

There are currently 6 districts that are all or mostly downstate, and two others (11 and 14) that have significant downstate areas. Either those districts would have to give up their downstate counties while Chicago loses a seat, or a downstate district is lost while 11 and 14 push further out.

Within Chicagoland, Chicago is projected to have enough population for four seats, and suburban Cook for another three. The collars plus Kendall will have enough population for five seats.

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