Friday, December 28, 2007

What value Hastert?

My latest Oberweis mailer. There is also a new TV ad featuring Hastert but it's not available yet on Oberweis's site.

I'm going to guess most if not the majority of GOP primary voters on the eastern side of the 14th haven't lived here long enough to have attachments to Hastert.

I think they may just see an endorsement from a guy who ended a career in Congress with a bad fumble.

Worse, they may just see the former earmark King as the predessor to todays earmark Queen.

So with Bush picking constitutional fights like this with Congress,

His [Bush] sharp message on earmarks, though, stirred consternation on Capitol Hill and excitement among fiscal conservatives.

He called Congress irresponsible for lumping 11 spending bills into a single, 1,400-page measure nearly three months into the fiscal year.

"Another thing that's not responsible is the number of earmarks that Congress included," he said. Congress "made some progress" curbing pet projects, he said, but not enough.

Bush said he asked Jim Nussle, director of the Office of Management and Budget, to present him with possible actions to take, although he would not elaborate.
Hastert's endorsement may just seem more of the same from less than the best from Congress .

The other wild card here are the Paulistas. They'll vote.

If the GOP Prez primary is competitive enough to generate interest and boost the turnout, then I'm guessing all these new GOP voters will be turned off by Hastert.

I thought Oberweis would benefit from the Paul voters --Oberweis comes off angry and so are they-- but this endorsement's killed that.

Paulistas won't have a clue who Lauzen is, but they'll know Hastert, not like him, and vote for anyone but Oberweis if they get that far down the ticket.


Jake 7:20 PM  

I don't know - it's a presidential primary, and a lot of people still view Hastert as a moderate. If they view Oberweis as the same, those Giuliani suburban voters might give Obie the edge.

DuPage Saint,  7:04 AM  

I have not been out in Quaint Kane County long, but when I think of Obie I think of Harold Stasson. Hasn't this man run for every political office there is, including committeeman, and lost? At least Lauzen identifies himself as a Republican and has actually won a few.

GOPShrill 9:59 AM  

I think it's very ambitious to think Hastert's endorsement is a non-factor in the eastern portion of the 14th. I believe more people have lived here long enough to know of the former-Speaker's positive contributions to the district. Also, despite Ron Paul's fundraising efforts of recent history, he still polls really low. I doubt Oberweis was counting on the votes as the difference maker is between the two candidates.
Plus, those that vote in the primaries tend to be more informed than the average voter. I feel they will actually know who the two candidates are and will make a more informed decision than your making it out to be.

Bill Baar 10:09 AM  

Interesting new blog GOPShrill.

WurfWhile had an interesting post on Burn's dropping out of the race. He said Burn's leaving left it a contest between two right wing extremists: Oberweis and Lauzen.

Right now the vibes I get are more throw the rascals out and I don't think featuring Hastert as the big endoresement helps much.

Watch the TV ad and Hastert does all the talking while Oberweis watches and smiles.

It's a very weird commercial to me.

If 2008 is all about finding authenticity in candidates, then I don't think this ad will work.

If the prez races are still horse races then I think there will be more newer voters without the attachment to Hastert (and not like some of the long time ones in northern parts of the district feel a deep attachment anyways).

Anonymous,  12:27 PM  

Here's what I see:

A candidate who has spent millions trying to win races in IL, with not one victory (Oberweis) and has fallen in and out of favor with the powers that be, at times.

A candidate who claims to have lost millions by being a career politician, and who has overstayed his once-desired term limitation by several years (Lauzen).

Both have exhibited goofy personal behavior and tics that are less than stellar (which some can be forgiven since none of us are perfect) but sometimes is pretty bizarre.

Then we have a relatively unknown candidate trying to buy their way into the race (Foster) and a returning candidate that seems to be too far left to win (Laesch).

This is truly a bizarre race, and I think Hastert's endorsement helps a little under the prevailing conditions.

GOPShrill 2:35 PM  

This is a very interesting race, that is for sure.

Bill, I haven't seen the ad yet, so I cannot comment on how it looks. But the problem I see with the horse race (as you accurately described the presidential primaries) is that it is too front-loaded. With a lot of primaries on Feb. 5, not many people realize their state is one of them. Now, I'm sure that will change drastically after Iowa and New Hampshire (and to a lesser degree with Nevada and South Carolina). What I can say is this has never happened before and it is all just assumptions and guesswork. We don't have a past performance to predict what the turnout will be. One could only hope that more will turn out to participate, but I expect the numbers to be around the 23-28 percent range.

And I like your photo of the old railroad sign.

Anonymous,  9:26 AM  

Jim Oberweis being endorsed by Denny Hastert is a little like Congressman Jerry Weller endorsing Tim Balderman. If I was Oberweis or Balderman, I would say, "thanks guys but no thanks". Both Hastert and Weller are leaving office with a gray cloud hanging over them. I would think that Oberwis and Balderman are hoping that voters don't dwell on that old adage, "Birds of a feather, flock together."
I am not saying Hastert or Weller have done anything wrong. I am also not saying that Oberweis or Balderman are bad guys. I am saying that both Weller & Hastert are leaving political office under negative media scrutiny. I don't think that this is necessarily "a good thing" if you are a candidate that has been given their endorsement.

Truthful James,  10:07 AM  

Hastert's endorsement is a signal from the Kendall County based lobbyist and republican honcho Dallas Ingemunson to get out the votes for Oberweis.

Dallas retain his power behind the scenes with the combine -- the other two rich lobbyists being Bob Kjellander and Bill Cellini. Hastert never did anything throughout his career without the the boss's say so.

Dallas has had a hard on for Chris Lauzen ever since Chris stuck his nose into County politics and backed a candidate who defeated the Ingemunson kid Boyd.

When and if Lauzen wins the primary, expect the Oswego Republican machine to go into hibernation and Dallas to act like a good Trappist. Kendall is, after all, his fiefdom to do with it as he wishes -- or so he thinks.
In preparation for defeat he has announced his retirement, but one can be sure that his cold dead hands will still be on the levers of power.

Anonymous,  3:08 PM  

Dennis Hastert is still very popular among Republican primary voters in his district. If you think his endorsement is somehow bad for Oberweis in this race, pass me some of what you are smoking. Those earmarks that you think are bad--people think are good when it comes back to their district. Unless something changes in this race (still possible), the Hastert endorsement probably puts Oberweis over the top.

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