Sprout

The Democratic steamroll was the big news of the day in Illinois, but not unsurprising given the overshadowing unpopularity of Pres. George W. Bush. The other big story of the day is that Green Party candidate Rich Whitney garnered 10% of the vote statewide, while spending less than $40,000. Whitney's performance -- and the loyalty of Whitney supporters -- could redefine the political battle between the two major parties in Illinois over the next four years.

I think the loyalty of the Green voters tells us they weren't simply voting against Topinka and Blagjevich out of disgust (an assumption that I and many others made and got wrong) but actually hold to some core reform values and are willing to back candidates that reflect them. There is a reform movement sprouting in Illinois.

Yes, the Green Party has secured it's place on the ballot, but don't look for them to put forward a winning statewide ticket in four years, unless they can recruit a self-funded candidate who can also carry the reform mantle. Instead, what is more likely to happen is what usually happens when a reform movement sprouts from a third party: one of the major parties co-opts their agenda and the third party fades into the history books. Clinton's ability to pass Ross Perot's balanced budget is a great example. Look for Democrats and Republicans to woo those reform voters by putting forth their own reform agendas.

The ball is clearly in Democrats' court. If they can pass a government ethics reform agenda and an education reform agenda -- the top two issues of the Whitney campaign -- they will have a lock on Illinois for years to come. If Democrats stumble, Republicans will have the opportunity to make the case that Democrats are obstacles to reform. Of course, Republicans had the opportunity to make that case this year and blew it, in part because their education funding proposals were half-hearted, and also because their candidates were not credible on the ethics issues: Topinka, Rutherford and Radogno all tried to make ethics central issues in their campaigns, and in each case those efforts blew up in their faces because of their ties -- however tenuous -- to the GOP's corrupt past.

For Republicans to take advantage of any Democratic shortcomings, they must clean house and put forth a slate of fresh faces. It's a Herculean task, one that I'm not sure Republicans are up to. Still, Democrats would be wise to nip that opportunity in the bud by advancing a reform agenda, and should look carefully at Whitney's performance by legislative district to see where there are opportunities to add to their legislative lead. Start recruiting candidates now, force Republican incumbents to vote on key wedge issues now -- like the assault weapons ban, school funding reform, utility rate freeze -- and give yourself 18 months instead of three to build winning campaigns across the state. Given the huge money advantage Democrats should have and the Presidential turn-out advantage for Democrats, Democrats could pick up as many as half-a-dozen seats in the House and 1-2 more in the Senate in 2008.