Monday, November 06, 2006

Marathon Pundit Ill. gubernatorial race prediction: A win by Topinka

First of all, if you want a good rundown on predictions in other races, I recommend Richard Baehr's prognostications in the American Thinker.

Baehr made no prediction in the Ill. gubernatorial race.

I'm going out on a limb--although I admit I'm biased--by predicting a narrow victory by Republican Judy Baar Topinka and her running mate, Joe Birkett. Why? After all, only one poll, by Copley, has Judy reasonably close, trailing incumbent Rod Blagojevich and his running mate, Patrick Quinn, by four percentage points.

In some polls, but not the Copley one, Green Party candidate Rich Whitney has crossed the double-digit threshold of poll support. But that was before this weekend's revelation that Whitney was less than forthcoming about his past leadership role in the Socialist Labor Party. Look for Whitney's election day support--the only one that counts--to trickle down to about five percent.

Where will that protest vote--and really, that's what's Whitney's support has been--go to? To Topinka. Some voters may hold their nose while doing it, but Judy will get the majority of the former Green vote. After all, the recent news stories with the names of disgraced Blagojevich fundraisers such as Stuart Levine and Tony Rezko are still bouncing around the heads of Illinois voters.

The last words I'll leave to Blagojevich--from his 2003 inaugural address:

I will govern as a reformer.

Blagojevich lied, and Illinoisans will hold him accountable.

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