Sunday, February 05, 2006

Mangieri versus Giannoulias primary a fascinating look at the Democratic Party

Statewide primaries are fascinating exercises. They illuminate the different types of people who define the party. Elected officials, who usually have a finely-tuned sense of the political consensus in their area, as well as a very good read on the wishes of the higher-ups in the party, are great symbols for how different parts of the state are thinking.

The only vigorously-contested statewide primary Democrats have this year is the open seat for Treasurer. Judy Baar Topinka, the Republican with the most cross-over appeal, is running for Governor. Her heir apparent is another suburban woman legislator, Christine Radogno, who managed to clear the GOP field. She'll be a formidable candidate for whichever Democrat survives the primary.

The two men competing for the slot are Knox County State's Attorney Paul Mangieri (campaign website here) and Chicago banker Alexi Giannoulias (campaign website here).

The best thing one can say about Mangieri's campaign is that he is backed quite strongly by Speaker Michael Madigan. The second best thing one can say is that he had the fortitude to run for the office early when the Republicans were flirting with Jim Edgar and conventional wisdom suggested that Judy Baar Topinka was likely to run for re-election (along with every single other statewide official). A run for Treasurer against Topinka was considered about as much of a kamikaze mission as running against Jesse White or Dan Hynes or Lisa Madigan (at least, that's my view of conventional wisdom last summer), and Mangieri was essentially the only elected official willing to campaign for the job.

Once the Republican ticket shook itself out and Topinka relinquished her seat, progressives found themselves a bit out of sorts. Mangieri has been a pro-life official, and after Barack Obama's stunning 53% plus victory in the last statewide primary (a race he wasn't supposed to win), these was a lingering sense that another progressive ought to get the seat -- or at least, not just concede that precious post to a pro-lifer without a primary.

Populist Representative Mike Boland and blogging Representative John Fritchey (both of whom would be considered progressive) flirted with a run, but Speaker Madigan convinced Boland to run for re-election in his increasingly Republican district and Fritchey, for a number of reasons, decided he didn't want to run either.

That left....no one.

Into the void stepped an unlikely candidate: Alexi Giannoulias. The son of Greek immigrants who started the very successful Broadway Bank in Chicago, a young, good-looking former semi-pro basketball player and a bit of a man about town, Giannoulias had the money and connections to put together a fairly impressive campaign in short notice. One very important connection: Barack Obama's political man in Illinois, Dan Shomon, who played a crucial role in creating the candidacy. (At least, I credit Dan, but I'm just a third-hand observer, and not a participant in the campaign).

Speaker Madigan's main motivation in supporting Mangieri, according to press accounts, is the desire to avoid a Chicago-only ticket. All statewide Democrats live in Chicago. That's not a great message to send to Downstaters, who tend to place a higher degree of importance to a candidate's domicile than people from the city. (One quick anecdote: a College Republican from Champaign County told me in 1996 that he'd be happy with the Salvi-Durbin U.S. Senate race no matter what, because either the Republican would win or a the Downstater Dick Durbin would win. This is from a fairly partisan guy.) I recall seeing faxes in 2002 showing a map of Chicago with the residences of all the Democratic statewide candidates (including Tom Dart), calling for an end to Chicago dominance of Illinois politics. I'd imagine that message resonated a bit Downstate.

Sensing a possible problem for the 2006 re-election campaign, Speaker Madigan moved to fill the gap by supporting a Downstater.

Progressives (however defined) are far less motivated by the risk of a Chicago-only ticket. The endorsers of Giannoulias (read them here) are essentially the base of the Obama coalition: white north side progressives and south side blacks. Pro-choicers and the gay community are early supporters as well.

Because Mangieri doesn't have a campaign website that lists his endorsements (symptomatic, I think, of his supporters, who value a hard-working precinct campaign far more than a fancy website), it's hard to say exactly who his endorses are. But I do know that Speaker Madigan has made it a point to work on collecting supporter for his primary campaign, so it's safe to say that there are far more elected officials who support Mangieri than Giannoulias, as Obama certainly inspires affection and devotion from the electorate, but Speaker Madigan earns more political deference from elected officials.

The best political shorthand for the pre-primary battle is Obama versus Madigan. I'm not suggesting there's any sort of a fight between these two men, but they are both good symbols of the wings of the party that are backing each candidate. I have heard that Obama's endorsement (his first really high-profile endorsement since his election to the Senate) has been worth its weight in gold (and the web designer for Giannoulias certainly thinks so). So this will be a really interesting six weeks.

Perhaps the most interesting question for progressives is whether it's a smarter move to back a Downstater in order to help solidify the Democratic Party's standing Downstate generally (and perhaps marginally improve Blagojevich's re-election chances) or to support a Chicago progressive who can help escalate the progressive wing's internal clout in the party, but perhaps marginally hurt the other statewide's relection chances.

After seeing the inspiring litany of bills that the Democratic majority in the General Assembly have been able to pass in the last three years, I'm growing more sympathetic to the Speaker's sense of strategy. I might be over-valuing the importance of a non-Chicago-only ticket (or put another way, I might be overestimating the risk of a Downstate backlash to a Chicago-only ticket), but I'd like to dampen the potential for a Chicago-only ticket backlash any way possible.

9 comments:

Anonymous,  3:09 PM  

Can someone tell me why the heck the abortion issue would matter at all in the TREASURER'S Primary? The State Treasurer has no say on this issue, and if this could be a way to give pro-life democrats some representation in state wide office, I'm all for that (although I admittedly don't know Pat Quinn's position on the issue).

Also, What do you think of Giannoulias's strategy of having the full name "Alexander" rather than "Alexi" on the ballot. On the one hand, I'll admit, even as a Greek myself, that "Alexi Giannoulias" could sound way too ethnic which could hurt in a primary, but then again, a lot of people who really didn't know anything about either candidate, which will be a large proportion of the electorate, might think "Alexi" is a female name and thus he could have gotten the votes of a lot of women who thought that they were voting for a woman. Interesting strategy question.

Anonymous,  3:56 PM  

I'll admit that I haven't been over inspired by the litany of bills the Dems passed.

Anonymous,  5:21 PM  

Dan,
a couple of corrections. Durbin ran in 1996 not 98. Obama only received about 53% of the vote in the primary. He saved the 70% he received for the general.
Otherwise I agree with your analysis of this race.

Dan Johnson 9:21 PM  

(In reverse order): Thanks anonymous. Of course, you're right. I'll edit my post to reflect those. To 'half white citizen': I think we Dems need to do a better job promoting the litany of bills passed in the last three years. There have been a lot of great laws that improve the quality of life of most people. Somehow, we have to talk about all of these bills better than we do. And to lh, I think abortion matters in every race for the people that care about abortion. There's no such thing as a race that doesn't count for an issue that people care about. The Treasurer might end up running for Governor some day (see: Judy Baar Topinka), so supporting a pro-choice or anti-choice candidates matters a lot to the pro- and anti-choicers. I think that's legit. I think it's better to go with Alexander than Alexi.

Anonymous,  10:27 PM  

Both of these guys are uninspiring, Fritchey should have run, or even Schoenberg, or Clayborne.

Anonymous,  10:54 PM  

Frichey has corruption problems with clout peddling with his uncle on a bunch of real estate deals.

Anonymous,  11:13 PM  

Ha. Larry Horse, that's funny. Everyone in Chicago knows Banks and Fritchey have peddled clout on real estate deals for a long time. Google it!

Anonymous,  4:16 AM  

Mangieri is out of the party mainstream, and his recent flip-flops on the issues that cause him to be (abortion, civil unions) give the republicans a valuable weapon. Yet this also takes away the big-tent argument that the party is running an anti-choice candidate.

The endorsement list on Giannoulias's website is an interesting study in the party dynamics you mention. While a few endorsing officials have actually rescinded their endorsements and were once but no longer listed, because, despite having made public endorsements that presumably tell us where their hearts are, they've been bullied by Madigan and his forces, the list of township, ethnic and other organizations (incuding the IVI-IPO)has grown significantly, suggesting the campaign has picked up a lot of steam at the grass-roots level.

Anonymous,  8:46 AM  

Why did no Hispanic candidates enter this primary? Was it Madigan's doing?

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