Swinging in Illinois

After a while, it's easy to become somewhat numbed to the same banter going back and forth between the same local prognosticators of Illinois politics. So in the interest of expanding horizons, I decided to check out various out of state takes on Illinois politics.

Suffice it to say that I was surprised to find the following on a very pro-Democratic site. While somewhat hedging its bets, the Swing State Project expresses concern and disappointment about the latest poll numbers in the Illinois Governor's race.

IL-Gov: Yikes! Blago Looking Weak

Posted by DavidNYC

A new poll from Rasmussen (likely voters, no trendlines):

Blagojevich: 37
Topinka: 48
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Judy Baar Topinka is the GOP's strongest candidate, but she still has to weather a primary before she takes on incumbent Dem Gov. Rod Blagojevich. Nonetheless, this poll looks very bad for Blago. Of course, it's just one survey and we don't have trendlines, so I'm not about to start wigging out. But given how devastated the IL GOP is, it's sad to think that this seat might be in any danger at all. (Empasis added)

I'm curious to see how concern about this race, and the impact that it might have on other races, affects those in D.C. and elsewhere and whether it motivates them to get involved. If the Republicans retake the Mansion in November, Illinois, by all accounts a Blue State, suddenly becomes a swing state, and that has a host of implications indeed.

The Republicans may use it to signal to their supporters that there is 'blood in the water' in Illinois and that their party is back in play in Illinois years sooner than anybody thought that they would be. Or the Governor could try to use it to his advantage by trying to appeal to Democrats around the country to rally to his (and ostensibly) their aid, while at the same time (albeit in a less than optimal situation) increasing his national visibility. It's going to be an interesting countdown to November.

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