Capitol capital strategy for smoking out the loyal opposition

[I had posted this one on www.DJWInfo.blogspot.com yesterday, but since Rich's post noting the complaints about a lack of liberal blogs, I thought I'd re-post it here, in all its long-winded glory so Illinoize can be more 'fair and balanced.' And liberal bloggers -- especially all you smart lobbyists and staffers -- start some anonymous blogs. We need to tell the story about what's happening here in the capital of Blue America. It's good news.]

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Let's say that you are the Speaker of the House or the President of the Senate.

Let's also say that you think the State ought to issue some bonds to finance roads, transit and schools for the first time in three years. This requires a 3/5 vote, so Republicans must vote for the bond.

Finally, let's say that the growing specter of the gubernatorial election leads to increasing calculation by Republican strategists to vote against any bond, based on the hope that a Republican candidate will beat the Democratic incumbent.

What can you do to either (a) put the pressure on Republicans to vote for the bond or (b) educate the electorate that the Republicans are to blame for the lack of a bond?

That's the dilemna facing Speaker Madigan, President Jones, their respective staffers and strategists and Governor Blagojevich and his team.

On the policy side, it's almost certainly the right thing to do to issue a bond and finance some transit, school and road projects. Governor Blagojevich tends to frame the debate in terms of generating construction jobs, but I think the more compelling policy reason for the bond is the investment in our infrastructure that benefits all of us. I'd say there's a rather strong consensus that the State should (putting 'politics' aside) implement a capital plan this year.

So, how can the Democrats leverage that very strong consensus on the need for a capital plan to either force Republicans to support one or successfully assign blame to them for the lack of a capital plan emerging?

There's a tremendous amount of civic education that accompanies any attempt to cast blame on the GOP. The requirement for a 3/5 legislative vote in both chambers for any capital bill is not widely known, so it isn't widely known (among the electorate) that Republicans have a veto over any capital bill. That suggests that the average voter will likely blame the incumbent governor just as much as the Republican legislators for the lack of a capital bill -- to the extent any average voter is moved by the lack of a capital bill.

However, the best way to explain that dynamic to voters is to force a vote on a capital bill and give Republican legislators an opportunity to either implement a bill or vote against it.

'No' votes are crucial for any Democratic attempt to blame the Republicans for the lack of a capital bill. If there is no vote on a capital bill, it's very hard to make the case that the Republicans are at fault. If there is a roll call, it's a bit easier.

With a roll call, Republicans must calculate the extent to which they will be blamed by presumably unhappy voters with the roads not paved, the transit not expanded and the schools not built. And with the message discipline that the Blagojevich campaign has shown, it's certainly conceivable that they will figure out how to successfully pin blame on the 'do-nothing Republicans.'

I think that's why the Blagojevich Administration is so energetically selling the projects in the proposed capital plan -- if they can successfully convey to voters that the Republican legislators are denying them something they want (this road, this particular bridge, that particular school), then the legislators might need to defer to the governor's Democratic-friendly plan in order to avoid a local backlash. It's hard to do, because they are trying to make people feel like the Republicans might take something away from them that they don't actually already have.

It reminds me of an old psychological trick. Let's say you've got a 100 dollar bill in your pocket. Someone approaches you and offers to flip a coin -- if you win, you get $100 from him, and if you lose, you have to give him your $100. Generally, people shy away from those 50-50 odds, because they feel like they at risk of losing something.

Now, imagine you are walking down the street and you find a $100 bill on the street. Before you pick it up, someone else steps on it, and offers to flip a coin -- if you win, you get the $100 bill on the street plus $100 in his pocket, but and if you lose, he gets the $100 on the street and you get nothing. Generally, people are more open to that game, because they don't feel they are at risk of losing something they have.

It's illogical, since the odds are the same, but people are not fully rational. In other words, people are more averse to losing something of value than they are attracted to the possibility of winning something, even when the odds are exactly the same. It just depends on how people perceive the game -- possible losing something important (very bad) or possibly gaining something important (pretty good, but not nearly as bad as losing something).

Somehow, Blagojevich and the Dems must convey to people that they are at risk of losing something of value -- the specific projects in the capital plan -- in order to bring Republicans on board or generate a base of angry voters who blame the legislators who voted no to take away their projects, and not just convey to people that if this capital bill passes, then they will gain something of value.

And I think it's easier to do that with roll call votes on a clearly-defined and fully-articulated capital plan. Maybe calling for votes that come up short because of GOP no votes makes the Democrats appear weak or unable to deliver, but I don't think so. I think it's better to lose a capital bill because of Republican opposition (especially on a party-line vote) and attempt to make that issue a significant part of the general election debate.

And who knows? Maybe a good-government consensus will emerge to float some more pension obligation bonds (a no-brainer way to save hundreds of millions, if not a billion or two, in lower interest rates on the massive unfunded pension obligations), that is absolutely the right thing to do, but seems to Republican strategists as an unattractive way of letting the Democrats off the hook on not fully funding the pensions. Maybe, faced with the prospect of explaining a no vote all summer and fall, some Republican legislators will vote yes, unwilling to 'take away' the projects in the bill from their constituents. I hope some consensus emerges. I liked all the new CTA buses and streets that Illinois FIRST bought.