Tuesday, February 28, 2006

3, 97 and Other Primary Numbers

Yesterday, a critic accused me of doing a "hatchet job" -- so I will try to hide behind the hard numbers today and go straight to your Chicago Sun-Times:

Just 3 percent of the campaign contributions that Democrat Tammy Duckworth raised last year came from the west suburban congressional district that the wounded Iraq war veteran hopes to represent. ***

Most of the cash all four Democratic and Republican candidates raised came from somewhere other than the 6th Congressional District.

But Duckworth's numbers were the most lopsided, with 97 percent of the $115,973 in itemized contributions she had in her fund Dec. 31 coming from outside the district's borders.
Jeepers, that sure doesn't look good. I guess the D.C. Dems better just keep their heads down and hope no one notices.
"It obviously shows that she's a candidate that is being fielded from outside the district," Democratic rival Christine Cegelis said. "She lives outside the district. And her support is from outside the district."
Darn that Cegelis... She and her supporters are always thinking a Congressional Representative should actually be from the district.
"Three percent is minuscule," said Jonathan Collegio, spokesman for the National Republican Campaign Committee. "She is raising money from Chicago Democrats and the Democratic Machine."

The Republicans noticed that the Emanuel candidate has shallow roots in the District. And Mr. Collegio was kind enough to give us a one sentence glimpse of Roskam's negative campaign theme should the out-of-district candidate represent the Democrats in November.

So 6th District Democratic primary voters now have something else to ask themselves before going to the polls: In November, will Dems be able to convince the ticket-spliting, independent swing voters of the 6th District that the out-of-district candidate with the out-of-district funding would be the district's best representative?

Cross-posted at the So-Called "Austin Mayor" blog


Anonymous,  3:52 PM  

Can Duckworth even vote for herself?

Who collected signatures for Duckworth's filing? Where did they live?

I have not seen one sign for Duckworth.

Anonymous,  3:54 PM  

So, I guess you'll be voting Roskam?


Windmill Chaser,  4:06 PM  

So by your rationale, Scott is the grassroots candidate for the primary, and Roskam is the grassroots candidate by the general?

Anonymous,  4:09 PM  

Is the red herring you try and serve up today the main course, or is it an appetizer to crow?

Yellow Dog Democrat 5:15 PM  

S-CAM, you've sunk from mere flakking for your candidate to bald-faced hypocrisy.

I don't recall Christine Cegelis saying that money from outside the district is bad when she was the one raising most of it. In fact, she issued a couple of press releases patting herself on the back -- raising money from nationwide websites and chicago labor unions. She also blew alot of local donors' money flying around the country chasing out-of-state dough, including the backing of the DCCC and Emily's list, both of which now support Duckworth. That is hypocrisy.


And you know the Cegelis campaign is desperate when they are quoting the National Republican Committee. But the quote tells us all something else: Republicans would rather face anyone but Duckworth in this race, that's why they are attacking her so early.

Let's face it. Republicans are scared of Duckworth, and they've got S-CAM and the whole Cegelis crew out there doing their dirty work for them. You know Cegelis can't win this March, but in order to make your point, you're doing everything you can to help Roskam in November, all in the hopes that on Election Day in November, you'll be able to say "I told you so."

The jokes on you though, S-CAM. If you think the DCCC is going to back Cegelis in 2008 if Roskam wins, you're crazier than Roskam. The DCCC just needs to pick up seats - they don't care if the seat is in Illinois or New Jersey or New Mexico. You'll be stuck with Roskam for a couple decades, and you'll deserve every minute of it.

Yellow Dog Democrat 5:17 PM  

P.S. I doubt Roskam wants to make the 2006 election about fundraising, what with his Tom DeLay fundraiser and all. You and your Republican allies better come up with a new schtick.

bored now,  5:37 PM  

the thought that republicans are scared of duckworth is laughable. i know that yellow dog hasn't talked to any republicans from the district, but i have. they're locked and loaded. they have their message down (part cegelis, part bush, part chambliss). roskam has a strong field operation; they are more than prepared. duckworth doesn't have a prayer.

perhaps she should withdraw now, right ydd?

Anonymous,  5:44 PM  

I'm awfully curious to know how this goes:

"part cegelis, part bush, part chambliss"

bored now,  5:55 PM  

well, i wouldn't want to repeat it in public; it's not very nice.

So-Called Austin Mayor 9:30 PM  


I believe you have missed my point, so let me spell it out for you: The Duckworth campaign is funded almost exclusively by people who live outside the district. I am suggesting that that may not play well in the general election.

And, because I generally agree with your politics, I hope that when you discuss politics with people face-to-face, you do so in a more civil manner.

Anonymous,  10:00 AM  

YDD, you moon over Tammy Emanuel--oops, I mean Duckworth!--so much, you're giving Bushbots a run for the gold medal in syncophancy. You're doing pretty well in the disloyalty department too: You'll be stuck with Roskam for a couple decades, and you'll deserve every minute of it. Those sure are the words of a team player! I may not favor Duckworth now, but even though I'm almost certain she'll lose hopelessly to Roskam in November, you can be damn sure I will circle the wagons and support her anyway.

Oh, and thanks for inspiring me to go donate more money to Cegelis just now. I'm very much looking forward to repudiating Rahm Emanuel and his top-down, finger-in-the-wind, stand-for-nothing, let's-just-be-slightly-less-of-a-corporate-whore-party-than-the-GOP strategy.

Conservative Republican with 6th D roots,  10:29 AM  

Boy, I am loving this so-o-o-o much, I hope it continues long after the general election as a west suburban Demo blame-fest when the Dem primary winner (whoever) loses in November. (If nominee Cegelis loses, Emanualworth was to blame; if nominee Duckwalk loses, Dean/Cegelis to blame, etc, etc)Great chuckles with my morning coffee!

SenorAnon,  10:40 AM  

"you're giving Bushbots a run for the gold medal in syncophancy."

Really, now. Pot. Kettle. Kettle. Pot.

Anonymous,  2:51 PM  

I. Am. So. Sick. Of. People. Using. Periods. Like This.

Duckworth (that's her name and try to show a little more respect for a war hero 'conservative wanker with roots') or Cegelis, doesn't matter. Either one of em is going to lick your DeLay toadie, Roskam, and you can sip on it.

SenorAnon,  3:28 PM  

FWIW - The periods in my above post are to denote one-word sentences - not to add to the increasingly-used imitation of the Simpsons' Comic Book guy.

Worst. Example. Ever.

Anonymous,  4:23 PM  

I disagree about Duckworth being the better candidate in the General.

Roskam is a local product. He has deep ties to the community. He actually has a very well oiled and connected grass roots organization in place. He will run on his local status vs. Duckworth's 'outsider' status. Her fundraising, regardless whether it is good or bad, reinforces his argument. Her lack of ties to the district reinforces his arugment. Her ties to Emanuel and Chicago Democrats reinforces his argument.

As long as he can keep this on this argument, he gets to side-step his record and extreme views. If Duckworth tries to cry "he's tied to DeLay and DC insiders" he will just turn around and say "You are too." If she tries to say "look at my bio" he will say "yes, look at the outsider. Now look at my home town bio." If Duckworth tries to out mail or media him, he will just spend the wad he's already sitting on.

The only way this gets won for Democrats is if the race is won on the ground and on issues. Cegelis has the ground game to compete with Roskam's ground game. Duckworth doesn't. Cegelis can't be pegged as an outsider. Duckworth can. If Roskam tries to paint Cegelis as too liberal, as he certainly will, Cegelis can say "You are right Pete, let's take a look at where we both stand on the issues." Cegelis is more in line with the district and the nation than Roskam is, and he loses a battle on issues that never even begins if Duckworth somehow wins the primary.

SenorAnon,  5:17 PM  

That is a well-written post that shows a great deal of thought but very little understanding of how this thing works.

Bill Baar 7:43 PM  

Any Republican not scared of going one-on-one against Duckworth is nuts.

Anonymous,  10:53 PM  

You have got to be kidding. Duckworth waffles on the issues. For example, look at CAFTA (first she was against it, then she didn't know enough about it to give an opinion. That doesn't sound very good for a candidate who has a masters degree in international economics and who lives in Melissa Bean's district). Does her opinion on CAFTA depend on whose endorsement she's trying to get? It's obvious that Scott would be the toughest candidate for any Republican to handle. He would not lose any Democratic votes and he would definitely pull the swing voters plus the immigrant vote. You should see his Latino support in my town.
Michael in Bensenville

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