Speaking of Fact-Checking: 700,000 jobs from Capital Bill?

Over at CapitalFax, Rich Miller details one example of how Governor Blagojevich likes to just invent facts.

I've been thinking alot about another Blagojevich fabrication since I made my seasonal visit to the websites of the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Team Blagojevich claims that Rod's $25 Billion capital plan will create 700,000 new jobs.

That will be an interesting feat, to say the least.

According to the BLS, there are currently 265,000 people working in the construction industry. That's down from a peak of 280,000 in 2002, although the number of people working in the industry nearly hit that peak again in 2006 and 2007.

Here's a chart and the data for your amusement:

Series Id: SMS1700000200000001 Seasonally Adjusted State: Illinois Area: Statewide Supersector: Construction Industry: Construction Data Type: All Employees, In Thousands
Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Annual
1998	238.7	239.2	233.9	240.5	242.8	242.5	246.6	247.5	249.0	249.7	250.5	256.3
1999	248.2	252.8	251.4	253.2	252.2	254.9	256.6	257.0	258.1	260.4	261.4	264.4
2000	266.1	268.0	272.7	271.6	271.3	270.6	269.1	270.3	270.6	270.5	270.7	264.8
2001	270.3	275.1	276.9	277.9	279.7	278.9	277.5	278.3	276.6	276.6	279.8	279.5
2002	278.1	278.0	276.1	274.5	274.1	275.5	277.2	279.1	280.0	280.4	279.6	277.5
2003	278.8	274.8	273.5	274.7	275.5	275.8	277.5	278.5	277.3	271.3	269.0	270.6
2004	271.2	268.0	270.7	269.9	270.0	269.7	270.1	268.3	269.2	269.4	270.1	274.3
2005	269.6	270.3	268.6	269.6	268.7	267.0	267.4	266.9	268.8	268.7	269.6	267.7
2006	278.5	279.4	278.3	278.2	276.2	277.1	274.6	274.9	273.3	272.1	270.9	270.5
2007	278.0	268.4	275.0	271.9	273.4	272.5	270.9	269.8	268.7	269.7	269.7	267.7
2008	272.9	264.4	265.8	264.4	264.8	265.3(p)
p : Preliminary

What do the numbers mean?

Well, the numbers suggest that there are roughly 15,000 people who are unemployed in the construction trades in Illinois. So if - and I stress IF - the Governor's capital plan actually creates 700,000 jobs, Illinois taxpayers are going to be spending a heckuva lot of money to provide jobs for people who live in Indiana, Missouri, Kentucky, Wisconsin and Iowa.

A Bigger Problem For Blagojevich's Numbers

There's even a bigger problem for Rod's claim that his capital plan will create 700,000 jobs though. Launched in 1999, Gov. Ryan's five-year, $12 billion Illinois FIRST program created at most 32,000 construction jobs. And that's only if you assume that every single new construction job in Illinois was a result of Illinois FIRST. Which of course is stupid to believe.

But even if you want to make that assumption, that means that every $1 billion the state spends creates 2,667 construction jobs. That means a much more modest capital plan now, of only $5.6 billion, would employ every single construction worker in Illinois.

Of course, Rod's bondhouse friends get a much better commission selling $25 billion worth of bonds than $5.6 billion. But I'm sure that's got nothing to do with it. Nothing at all.