Friday, July 06, 2007

An early analysis of the 14 District GOP Primary.

From Eric Krol, in today’s Daily Herald:

A Hastert retirement would set up a likely Republican primary pitting Oberweis against Aurora state Sen. Chris Lauzen. The two conservatives would battle it out for their party’s base of support
If that's what the field looks like heading into Februrary, my prediction is that Lauzen wins.

In the 2006 Republican primary, Kane County represented 58% of the total votes in the 14th District. Kendall represented 17%. Obviously those two counties, Kane in particular, are must wins for the nomination. Oberweis' poorest showing in Kane was in 2004 (29%, compared to 56% and 40% in ’02 and ’06, respectively) when the race included a State Senator from Kane (Rauschenberger). I think the same dynamic will play out in ’08, and Lauzen will beat Oberweis in Kane.

In Kendall, Lauzen already has a base (his district includes part of the county), while Oberweis has seen his number go down from 61% in ’02 to 42% and 37% in ’06 and ’04, respectively, even though no “favorite son” was in the picture in the later two cycles. Once again, I predict a Lauzen win in Kendall. Lauzen also won most of the western counties in the district when he ran for Comptroller in '98.

If Oberweis is willing to set his sights lower than Governor and U.S. Senator in order to get elected, maybe he should skip Congress and run for Lauzen's State Senate seat.

14 comments:

fedup dem,  2:17 PM  

Of course, should Hastert retire early (forcing a special election in 2007), them the political dynamics shift greatly, as candidates could run for the seat without risking their current office. However, that window is closing rapidly, as barely a month remains before the start of petition circulation for the February 5, 2008 Primary.

Anonymous,  3:25 PM  

Are you also predicting that Tim Schmitz won't run?

grand old partisan 3:52 PM  

I’m not ready to climb out on that particular limb just yet. My analysis (and perhaps I should make this clear in the post) is merely of the match-up proposed in Krol’s article.

The Other Side,  4:37 PM  

AB news says he's not running.

http://www.suburbanchicagonews.com/beaconnews/news/433633,2_1_AU19_BURNS_S1.article

"State Rep. Tim Schmitz, R-Batavia, has said he is not interested in seeking the federal office. Before announcing formation of his committee, Burns said he talked with Schmitz and Kane County Board Chairman Karen McConnaughay, who also has said she is not interested in running for the U.S. House."

Anonymous,  6:26 PM  

Hastert runs and keeps his seat for 2 more years. Gets additional projects in 2009 federal transportation bill. Retires in 2010.

DuPage Saint,  7:53 AM  

Hastert runs and keeps his seat for 2 more years. Gets additional projects in 2009 federal transportation bill. Retires in 2010. And then sells off all his farmland for gas stations at the intersections to all the roads he had built.

Anonymous,  3:07 AM  

Hastert is going to retire. Look for the announcement at his picnic in Sandwich on Friday the 13th.

His political web site has been down for weeks. He has laid off most of his political staff for months.

Anonymous,  9:39 AM  

Okay, so two conservative juggernauts battle that base, does the moderate, younger and unknown Mayor Burns have a shot ala Carol Braun when Holfield and Dixon split their base allowing her victory? Dixon=Lauzen(multiple terms in office) Holfield=Obie (multiple millions) Braun=Burns (low office holder w/poor name ID outside his town) hmmmm?

Anonymous,  11:52 AM  

I predict that Hastert will run again, win renomination and then announce his retirement for personal reasons (ill health, family matters, the feds are gettin close, whatever), then the Party (County Chairmen I believe, or maybe Precinct Committeemen, I'm not sure) choose a replacement to run in the General Election.

That replacement will be State Rep. Pat Linder, daughter of the previous Congressman (and it's Congressman, not Congresswoman)from the district, and all around get-along, go-along nebbish.

Anonymous,  12:23 PM  

Just wondering: who is Pat Linder's dad?

Anonymous,  1:07 PM  

Hey "anon 11:52" didn't know that "Patsy" blogged on this site ;) Pat aren't you supposed to be in Springfield workin on the budget and not promoting yourself for Denny's seat?

Anonymous,  11:21 PM  

Pat Linder's mother was the CongressMAN from that district for years, and now I, uh I mean she, wants to finish up one term sitting in the same seat :D

Anonymous,  8:47 PM  

McConnaughay's numbers were not that impressive in her last campaign.

She spent over $200,000 against a no name Democrat that spent $4000.

Rumor has it Steve Rauschenberger is considering a run for Kane County Board Chairman. He has had many people urging him to run.

The pay to play politics and the direct link from contribution to contract is becoming well known in Kane County. The contining reliance on one consultant after another to study this and that is exhausting the already overwhelmed taxpayer.

A candidate with the background of saying no the the George Ryan regime and telling the truth in regard to real budget concerns in the future may be just what Kane County Needs, not to mention and end to cozy land transactions!

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