Snubbing the snubbers

There are unconfirmed reports that Topinka indicated earlier this spring she didn't need conservatives to win.

Whether or not that's true, we will likely find out, and this isn't just whiny saber-rattling by IL conservatives.

Nationally, conservatives are showing their displeasure with an aberrant president and legislature by walking and threatening to walk.

This week, in an unprecedented move, conservative leaders boycotted a Tuesday meeting at the White House with Karl Rove and Harriet Miers to discuss judicial nominees. These meetings are rare; this was the first in over a year. Typically, 60-70 attend. But this time WH and Senate staffers nearly outnumbered the 15-20 who showed.

(See my blog for posting of articles detailing this from The Hill and Congress Daily AM not available online.)

News watchers will not then wonder why the issue of judicial nominees suddenly rose in prominence the past few days on the GOP Senate and WH agenda.

Peggy Noonan addressed this issue on a larger scale in her piece, "Baseless confidence," in today's Wall Street Journal:

[T]he administration and the Congress are losing their base, and it isn't because of the media....

The Republicans talk about cutting spending, but they increase it--a lot. They stand for making government smaller, but they keep making it bigger. They say they're concerned about our borders, but they're not securing them. And they seem to think we're slobs for worrying. Republicans used to be sober and tough about foreign policy, but now they're sort of romantic and full of emotionalism. They talk about cutting taxes, and they have, but the cuts are provisional, temporary....

What's a voter to do? Maybe stay home, have the neighbors over for some barbecue....

Party leaders say they're aware they're in trouble, aware of a sense of stasis in the country. They are going to solve the problem, they say, by passing legislation. They're going to pass a budget. And they're going to pass an immigration bill, too. People will like that.

But no they won't. The American people are not going to say, "I am relieved and delighted our Congress passed a budget." They will be relieved and delighted if Congress cuts spending. They would be relieved and delighted if Congress finally took responsibility for the nation's borders. They won't be impressed if you just pass bills and call it progress.

Party leaders are showing a belief in process as opposed to a belief in, say, belief. But belief drives politics. It certainly drives each party's base.

One gets the impression party leaders, deep in their hearts, believe the base is... base. Unsophisticated. Primitive. Obsessed with its little issues. They're trying to educate the base. But if history is a guide, the base is about to teach them a lesson instead.

Certainly the ILGOP old guard goes so far as to taunt its base as base, unsophisticated, primitive, and obsessed with its little issues. How much more should it expect a boycott, at least in the governor's race.

The marriage amendment will bring conservatives out, but expect Judy to be snubbed, be it formally or organically driven. Social conservatives around the state tell me they physically will not be able to vote for her. Principles drive social conservatives to politics... and away.