Stirring the pot ...
It seems to me that some of the posters and political analysts (I use that term very loosely) on this site are totally missing the point when trying to factor in all the different possibilities that will shake out in the Republican gubernatorial primary and also in next November's general election.
Let me toss out something for the masses to chew on this evening and also hopefully stir the pot a little on this subject.
All the speculation I've heard thus far seems to be centered on who will win the conservative vote, how moderates will fair and who is 'anti-this' and 'pro-that' on social issues.
I've yet to see anything about how Blagojevich is going to turn around a 36 percent approval rating. Keep in mind that if 36 percent approve that means, factoring in a margin for error, that 60-plus percent disapprove. And a good portion of that 60 percent are longtime Democrats.
So, one of the biggest questions to be answered is how Blago can reel these voters back in to the fold before next November. A $20 million campaign war chest is good if you are trying to establish name recognition throughout the state but a $200 million war chest cannot reverse a negative approval rating.
Also, for anybody to compare Candidate Blagojevich with Gov. Blagojevich is a classic case of comparing apples to oranges.
In 2001 Blagojevich was running against Jim Ryan and campaigning against corruption in the George Ryan administration. He also had a solid base of Dems who were desperate to regain the governor's mansion after a 30 year absence. Remember his battle cry, 'no more business as usual.' He'll eat those words many times during the next year.
In 2005 Blagojevich is running on his record ... and it ain't that good of a record. He also will have to defend many decisions he made ... and some of them, once again ... ain't that good.
I believe social issues are vitally important on the national level, but I really don't know how important they are in a statewide election. I see this election being decided on whether or not Blagojevich can find a way to reverse his dismal numbers. A six-week full-court press with All Kid's all the time didn't do it. But, I'm sure there's more to come.
Here's the questions I'd like to see some of you scribes tackle:
What can Blago do to turn around his 36 percent approval rating?
Will his $$$$Zillions help turn his popularity around?
How important will issues like abortion be in this election?
12 comments:
shhhh...do you hear that?? it's silence from the blagomaniacs.
Yea he can about the same time Pelosi gets on Fox news and tell us how much she likes Bush.
Well he could resign.
I'd think much more of him if did.
Finally move to Srpingfield maybe... that's the Capital of Illinois where most Illinois Governors have lived to stay close to the business of running our state.
This is easy. How does Blagojevich get his approval rating up?
Have the Republicans put Topinka on the the ticket to run against him.
Topinka is pro-gay rights, pro-abortion, anti gun.
I can see lots of Southern Illinois Republicans getting out to support her. Ha Ha.
with a $20 million (and growing) warchest, it's kind of hard to see how he gets beat. the jesse helms-jim hunt campaign is an appropriate analogy (i know, i know, it wasn't illinois; illinois is different; illinois is all that matters). but the obvious explanation is that if your favorables are low and your unfavorables are high, you increase the negatives of the other guy.
of course, those who think the governor is destined to lose also overlook the fact that he is polling strong in cook (survey usa/region: cook). he can literally focus all his attention on one other region (collar counties or downstate) -- somehow i think it unlikely he'll focus on downstate! -- to put together a winning coalition. sure, media is expensive in this area, but he's the one candidate who can afford it.
never underestimate the importance of a huge warchest in an expensive media state...
(and, no, i didn't vote for rod last time around!)
He does not have to do anything.
He can, and will, point to the extremist the ILGOP is going to run against him and say: "I believe in God, and I believe in science, and unlike my opponent I believe that churches should teach about God and schools should teach about science."
Of course, if some moderate emerges as an opponent, then that argument goes out the window. Luckily that will not happen.
Muir, you do not even deserve to be a reporter.
I am glad to see that some of your readers are calling you out as a Republinan operative (see letter to the editor in todays Southern).
You and your paper should be ashamed.
hmmm, anon, that's a bit tart, isn't it?
(obviously, i don't see muir's reportage, but:) personally, i'd rather see the media have a counter-incumbency slant, if they have one. that's the whole point of the press being the fourth estate, to keep an eye on power, and speak truth to it!
and i would have thought the purpose of blogging would be to allow one to express one's thoughts and feelings freely, without being held up to the standards of objectivity that one expects from the press.
maybe it's just me...
Anon 9:02:
Isn't it really great that one can read these blogs and say whatever they want to about anybody? I personally know Jim Muir, he is not a republican, nor is he a die hard democrat. He writes to make readers think, open dialog, respond and it worked on you! Free speech is available to all of us in America.
Anons 8:05 and 7:57 pretty much nailed it.
Against Topinka, Blago Wins the race to the bottom with Topinka costing Republicans 2-3 seats in each chamber.
The Dude raises good points. I'm a pro-life conservative R, and I appreciate his not caving on fake tax swaps. (he will next term though) He's as likable as Clinton with out the assaults on women. I don't like his politics, but I can't bring myself to hate him. He does what Democrats are expected to do (and very good at) - buy votes with patronage, pork, and pandering.
Still, he's beatable by anyone save Topinka, who he beats easily.
Skeeter. Our public schools don't teach science, nor much of anything else. They pretend to teach as they spend IL into oblivion. That is why we are left with choices like Rod & Topinka.
Jim, you asked a great question, but the answer is that you only need an opponent with higher negatives to win.
$20 million buys an awful lot of negative ads.
Gidwitz, Obie and Brady have a 50/50 chance beating Blago - but only by running near perfect race and every conservative & moderate vote turning out for them.
Republicans Nominate Topinka, and the hole they are in gets twice as deep and starts filling with sludge.
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