Tricky Decision
cross-posted from Dome-icile
So in light of Mike Quigley's (incredibly difficult and honorable) announcement not to seek the Cook County Board Presidency, I was thinking about the dynamics of the race and the big quandary that it poses for the Governor's campaign.Why the Governor's race you ask? Well, here's how I see it. Obviously, the two remaining candidates in the Democratic Primary are the incumbent, John Stroger and Commissioner Forrest Claypool. With Quigley not only out of the race, but fully supporting the Claypool campaign, this race will be positioned clearly as the reformer taking on the old way of doing business. Sound familiar?
So here's where it get interesting. Stroger has not been shy about playing the race card in the past, and will subtly (or not so subtly) use it now in order to get voters to the polls. Similarly, the Governor's re-election strategy, to a certain extent in the Primary, but much more so in the General Election, is going to be very dependent upon not only a big plurality of the African-American vote, but also upon a big, fat turnout in the African-American community. In order to get that result, come November, he needs...Stroger on the ticket.
As I see it, this puts our reform and renewal Governor in a serious trick box. If he openly backs Stroger over Claypool, he will significantly damage his credibility among reform voters, not only in Cook County, but around the state. If you are for 'changing the old way of doing business', that has to be a position of principle, not convenience.
If he takes the opposite position, he alienates some of the powerful organizations that are already on the fence with him, plus he may very well shoot himself in the foot with a constituency that does not easily forgive and forget.
It is virtually impossible for him to 'stay neutral' in the race. Even if he doesn't formally take a position, which is the likely case, the efforts of his supporters and those close to him will be justifiably attributed to him.
One can point out the presence of SOS Jesse White on the ticket. But to Jesse's credit, the guy is so well-liked across the state, that I don't envision a rallying cry to get the vote turnout in order to put him back in office.
Accordingly, I think that the Governor finds himself in a very untenable position. Based on a number of things, I have a strong sense of what the Governor is going to do, but I thought that it would be more interesting just to put this out there for all of you to ponder and share your thoughts on. Have at it.
4 comments:
Representative Fritchey, any voter who would believe a "I'm being picked on because I'm black" line by the likes of John Stroger is either on his payroll, a favored contractor, a relative or someone who has be living under a rock for up to 40 years. That is how long John Stroger has been loyally kissing the Daley family "Mistletoe" (as the old man put it).
Attention, young African-American voters of Cook County! Stroger was named Democratic Committeeman of the 8th Ward back in 1968 because Richard J. Daley found Stroger to be a loyal and subservient follower who could be relied on to provide huge vote pluralities and follow orders. While the other African-American pols put in by the senior Mayor Daley in wards (as their population shifted from white to black) have retired or died, Stroger has hung around, a relic of the "Silent Six" era of the 1960s.
Stroger was the only black committeeman to support Daley family ally George Dunne for county chairman in 1982. He was the only black committeeman to endorse Richard M. Daley for Mayor in 1983. As recently as last yeas, Stroger tried to get the votes in his ward out for Dan Hynes for U.S. Senator, not Barack Obama.
But now, when the voters of Cook County are (in the words of Dr. King) examining the conduct of John Stroger's character in office (and finding it wanting), Stroger expects African-American voters to forget all he did to help the Daleys at the expense of his people, and vote for him because he has the same color skin as they do.
I hope those voters are ready to teach Stroger and the Daley family that still calls the shots for him that they are not about to be fooled this time.
RANDALL SHERMAN
Secretary/Treasurer, Illinois Committee for Honest Government
Unfortunately, you're the only fool here...
The real question in this race is not about race. It's about the Mayor. The Mayor is on all sides of this election, hedging his bets if Claypool catches fire, by having Axelrod et al run the campaign. Before Quigley dropped, he had Giangreco (Strategy Group fame with Wilhelm) ready to roll with him. Of course, his brother is his chip with Stroger.
Someone needs to find out where Mayor Daley really is in this race. Will he repay the loyalty John Stroger has shown him? Or will he think that he has already done that for three elections going?
What Stroger heeds to do is get a sense asearly as possible where the Mayor stands and then do his own bit of hedging--line up with the Gutierrez and Jackson anti-Daley forces, even if in secret. Give them the dollars needed to get their political operations up and running on his behalf (and so they can practice their wares for 2007).
Stroger needs big black turnout, at least a Hispanic split and 30% of the white vote.
BTW Honorable Fritchey, don't think that the same political calculations Stroger makes about race weren't made by Quigley and Claypool today. This wasn't just about splitting the reform vote. This was also about slitting the WHITE vote. They're not above playing their version of the race card either.
The Governor will remain officially neutral.
The Governor will unofficially give the nod to Stroger.
I am hard pressed to see an incumbent under seige for numerous scandals that occured on his watch and challenged by a reformer giving his support to a challenger laying siege to an incumbent for numerous scandals that occured on his watch.
In terms of the Mayor, big deal. The Daley concept of loyalty is one way, to him. Stroger and all the other Chicago area politicians know that. I don't like it, but nobody has ever challenged him on it, including Stroger.
The Mayor humilated Stroger on relocating the Domestic Violence Court. I felt bad for Stroger because the Mayor cut his legs out from underneath him at the last moment after it was clear what Stroger's preference was. Nevertheless, Stroger didn't say anything publicly that was critical of the Mayor's meddling.
I don't like that Claypool is considered some type of reformer. Here is a guy, as Daley's Chief of Staff, helped set up much of the hired truck and illegal hiring processes. Went to the park district and slashed and burned the district-then fixed the hiring to load it with his cronies whom new nothing about park programs. Dumped his wife for his secratary and is generally considered to be a weasel. We would have been better off with Quigley.
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