JBT lost the general election on November 29
Cross posted at JillStanek.com.
The ILGOP thought Judy Baar Topinka’s entrance into the gubernatorial primary would "dramatically recast" the GOP’s prospects for recapturing the mansion.
But the ILGOP apparently did not consider that abortion proponents would oppose JBT in the general, thereby sealing the deal for Blagojevich.
Carole Marin agreed with that potential, saying Blagojevich’s flagging poll numbers mean he "has to draw a clear distinction between himself and Topinka… and one of the ways to do that is abortion."
Actually, Personal PAC and Planned Parenthood will do all that for him, having already begun painting Topinka as a pro-life extremist, if you can believe that, at a November 29 press conference.
The Windy City Times reported that Personal PAC CEO Terry Cosgrove said Topinka has "intentionally misrepresent[ed] her abortion position as 'pro-choice'" by voting to "[allow] husbands of domestic violence victims to have a say, [which is] out of step with the mainstream." There will be much more of that.
Yellow Dog Democrat incompletely reported the results of the Tribune poll to make his case that any abortion debate will only take place in the Republican primary.
In actuality the Tribune/WGN-TV poll indicated a total of 42% of IL voters think there should be more or complete restrictions on abortion and 49% think restrictions should be lessened or remain the same. Thus, the divide is actually close, and abortion proponents, motivated to reelect a governor who gives them carte blanche, will work hard to sway swingers to their side.
(And while gays love Judy, signs point to gays ultimately lining up with Blagojevich.)
Here’s the point. The Trib’s Pearson reported the thinking of the ILGOP re: conservatives: "'I think grudgingly they may go along,' said one GOP leader. 'They badly, badly want to beat Blagojevich.'"
How badly? The ILGOP always counts on conservatives ultimately agreeing to vote for the lesser of two evils. But even if so, "going along" certainly does not indicate motivation. Because the left would be motivated for Blagojevich and the trickle-down election of other Democrats - since most pro-abort/pro-gay candidates are Dems - JBT and the ILGOP would critically need the right’s motivation as well.
Thus, the ILGOP may win the primary battle but will lose the general election war, and JBT’s positions on abortion and special gay rights will be why. Even if JBT gets conservative votes, the right will not be there to volunteer at phone banks, walk precincts, and stuff envelopes – to provide the umph needed to push JBT to victory.
JBT is an enigma. She and the ILGOP have only two ways to promote her, either as someone who can out-Democrat Blagojevich, or as someone who is a right-moderate. Since neither the left nor the right believes either persona, JBT will lose.
12 comments:
...or since IL is generally a democrat/liberal leaning state which still maintains its midwestern values Judy's pro-choice position with sensible proposals such as parental notification will only bother both rabid pro-lifers and rabid pro-choicers allowing JBT's campaign to label Blago as an extremist as he attempts to curry favor from the far left abortion rights advocates. the majority of IL voters would fall closer to JBT's line of thinking.
Jill is so amazing. Illinois Republicans would rather stay home then work for JBT?
You guys are the best! Without you, Blago might actually have a real opponent.
The Illinois Republican way: Point gun at foot, pull trigger.
It is exactly what we have come to expect from people who thought Alan Keyes was a good idea.
let's face it Jill, if the IL GOP can't put up a decent fight against the biggest doofus to sit in the Governor's chair in several decades, they deserve to be banished to the trash heap, and the residents of IL resigned to a one party system run from Chicago controlling the state for several decades to come. The midgets appear to be more interested in tearing each other apart and boosting their little egos than actually accomplishing anything. Speaker Madigan, you have inherited the keys to the state.
Jill,
I can understand why you think of abortion is an issue. I hate it too, but we have to win some victories on this issue. We probably won't be able to ban it in Illinois altogether, but we can impose limitations and save the lives of a lot of unborn babies if we play our cards right. The Rockefeller Republicans need to let the conservatives have seats at the table of leadership, but as conservatives we have to show that we can belong there as well. The first step is to emphasize the economic issues - how about cutting taxes instead of raising them, fighting for economic freedom, and rolling back the Blago tax hikes and business regulation? That is where we can create the real damage here.
Jill -
I don't think I painted an incomplete picture at all. My point was that few folks are in the middle with Judy. Sure, if you want to lump those who want a complete ban in with those who want more restrictions, it totals 42%.
But my point was that only 24% share JBT's view that abortion should be legal but more restricted.
Glad you picked up on the Windy City Times article.
Maybe conservatives will fall in line behind JBT, but I still think there's time for conservatives to get behind one candidate, and my bet is on Brady (Oberweis's flip-flops and Rauschenberger's position on contraception are most likely deal breakers in the end), but you guys always seem to form your firing squad in a circle.
Maybe under Brady, Oberweis gets to be DCEO Director and Rauschenberger gets DHS?
Time will tell.
Jill, why didn't you listen to Paul Caprio and try to get a consensus conservative candidate.
Jill, where you one of the lemmings that followed Penny Pullen and conservative con Fran Eaton off the cliff with George Lyin Ryan.
Jill brings nothing to the debate, or to the political process...which is why she's stuck posting on a blog no one reads (not yours Rich).
Her and Fran are in the political wilderness, and they're going to be left in the cold for a long, long, long time...
I keep thinking that Jill has hit bottom, but she keeps talking.
Now she is claiming that the Pro-Choice movement is simply a money-making operation? That Planned Parenthood just wants the cash?
Jill, do you take a salary for your work? Do you contribute to political causes? I KNEW IT. You are just in it for the money, right?
Answering further, when you speak of the ILGOP backing a "pro-choice" candidate, your statement does not have much credibility, since I assume that you would consider somebody who believes in abortion in the case of rape or incest or where the mother's health is at risk to be "pro-choice." Of course the ILGOP backs candidates that you dislike. 99% of the people are in your view, pro-abortion extremists.
Ultimately, I am glad that people like you are part of the ILGOP. You make it easy for candidates that I support to win elections.
Fraydog, you have no business in the ILGOP. You seem to make sense, that is not allowed in the party. You must not be from around here.
The point that I believe is always missed in these debates, is that most people in Illinois don't base their vote on the abortion issue. It's an issue for true believers on one side or the other, but not for the average Illinoisan. I am pro-life, but for most people that issue ranks 4th or 5th in their mind when it comes to reasons to a)vote and b)for whom. I know, people will ask, how can a decision of life or death be 4th or 5th and that's a valid question, but it's the reality of where we are at. The abort issue will not win or lose an election of this magnitude. JRyan was prolife without exceptions... How did that fare? Most people dont base their vote on that issue, plain and simple.
The more Jill posts, the more she will be seen as less than knowledgeable about politics. Jill knows her issues, but is less than apt to relate that to the political landscape.
Jill, you claim to desire rational conversation and then claim that all your opponents are motivated by money. That tends to show a complete lack of awareness of reality on your part.
In fact, Planned Parenthood is doing a great job of lowering abortion rates by providing birth control (something I'm sure you find offensive). Planned Parenthood provides education to women as to how to prevent conception and in so doing, stop unwanted pregnancies before aboriton. In fact, Planned Parenthood does a better job of lowering abortion rates than you do, since they actually reach out and help people.
Of course, you come from a side that thinks it is rational to shoot a doctor or to blow up a clinic.
You would not know rational conversation if it bit you.
Don't try and lecture me about rational conversation while you make outrageous claims about your opponents.
Convert yourself first. Act rationally yourself. Then lecture somebody else.
Better Headline: JILL STANEK LOST HER MIND TWO YEARS AGO
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