The Great Chicago Exodus Is Actually The Cook County Exodus
From the times:
I guess I hadn't really considered the city's well known problem with large quantities of people heading for 'the burbs'. Black folks have been heading south to the far south burbs for quite some time, folks from the SW side of the city have long been white flighting for perceived whiter pastures of Orland Park and Lamont. Who doesn't have a friend or two who made their post college transition from Lakeview to Schaumburg or Naperville?
Population loss in Chicago? Unsurprising. But real meaningful loss to the entire county? It comes as sort of a shocker to me. I had always assumed that at least half of those relocating to the Will County house farms were coming north from middle Illinois, and that for every family who leaves Chicago to seek less busy streets and more retail is replaced by a family seeking to live in the city.
Apparently, not the case. 88,000 people leaving Cook County to head further away from Chicago is bad. Officials will always be at least decent in dealing with budding populaces. Dealing with declining ones is where things always get ugly.
Things to consider:
1. With such a pool of potential employees and the fact that it's infinitely cheaper to set up shop, will more upstart businesses steer for Will County?
2. If not, and businesses continue to set up in Cook, does this trend reflect even worse situations in terms of traffic on the commute?
3. What will Pace and Metra have to do to keep up with the transfer of the population from one place to another?
Census population estimates released today show Cook County posted the third biggest decline in the nation, losing 88,000 residents since 2000.
Only counties surrounding New Orleans, ravaged by a hurricane, and Detroit, clobbered by a declining auto industry, lost more.
In the same period, however, Kendall County, about 40 miles southwest of Chicago, added nearly 34,000 residents and had the second-fastest growth rate in the nation -- 61.7 percent. Will County, south of Chicago, also made the top 100 fastest-growing counties. It came in 36th and grew 33 percent.
I guess I hadn't really considered the city's well known problem with large quantities of people heading for 'the burbs'. Black folks have been heading south to the far south burbs for quite some time, folks from the SW side of the city have long been white flighting for perceived whiter pastures of Orland Park and Lamont. Who doesn't have a friend or two who made their post college transition from Lakeview to Schaumburg or Naperville?
Population loss in Chicago? Unsurprising. But real meaningful loss to the entire county? It comes as sort of a shocker to me. I had always assumed that at least half of those relocating to the Will County house farms were coming north from middle Illinois, and that for every family who leaves Chicago to seek less busy streets and more retail is replaced by a family seeking to live in the city.
Apparently, not the case. 88,000 people leaving Cook County to head further away from Chicago is bad. Officials will always be at least decent in dealing with budding populaces. Dealing with declining ones is where things always get ugly.
Things to consider:
1. With such a pool of potential employees and the fact that it's infinitely cheaper to set up shop, will more upstart businesses steer for Will County?
2. If not, and businesses continue to set up in Cook, does this trend reflect even worse situations in terms of traffic on the commute?
3. What will Pace and Metra have to do to keep up with the transfer of the population from one place to another?
8 comments:
Todd Stroger is DuPage, Will and Lake's best friend.
Taxes and bad schools are pushing people out. The good Chicago schools, the best ones, are only for the elite. To live in Chicago and many parts of Cook is not worth the cost.
All I can say at this point is that the Census estimates during the late 1990s all pointed to a population decline for the city of Chicago. But when the formal 2000 Census was taken, Chicago had registered a population increase over the 1990 figures. Therefore, I would not place all that much faith in these estimated figures, as far as Chicago and suburban Cook County are concerned.
Census estimates have a difficult time gauging immigration. That was definititely a factor leading up to 2000. I would think that after last decade, they would have better models of immigration in Chicagoland, so they might do a better job this decade.
In any case, the losses are not only in the city of Chicago, but also from some of the inner townships according to the data released last summer.
Randall,
The Census has better tools now than in the 1990's and they are getting better all the time. My sources on the ground say that immigrants are less likely to land in Cook and are increasingly landing in the outer burbs like Joliet, Waukegan and Aurora, completely bypassing Cook.
I wouldn't be surprised if the estimates are missing some Cook inmmigrants, but I still expect to see an overall decline in the tens of thousands barring some late-decade reversal of the trend.
And the 88,000 loss just indicates the net loss. There are actually hundreds of thousands who left Cook in the last 6 years, who were replaced in part by internal migration, international migration, and "births minus deaths". The important trends, which will not be verified until 2010, will be "who left" and "who showed up". As any demographer knows, the characteristics of those who are coming and going is just as important as the raw numbers.
The Census estimates are not particularly accurate and not "getting better all the time".
Their metrics do a good job of estimating white and white collar migration. The margin of error for minorities and those in the gray economy are substantially higher.
The State of California is claiming a disparity of close to a million persons.
Another state scratching their heads:
"It's a definitely a concern for Utah, because the divergence between the estimates produced by our local experts and the estimates produced by the Census Bureau are not only different, but the divergence is increasing," said Robert Spendlove, Utah's state demographer."
It's about steering federal funds that rely on the estimates.
Why Will county? Are people buying land for an investment hoping the Peotone airport goes in? Will extention of 355 increase property values? Are there really a lot of jobs out there? Maybe this area will be like Boilingbrook was after 355 came through, and it was accessable and property values went up.
But isn't Will county tornado alley?
Why Will County? Are you kidding? Will and Kendal counties have a lot to offer. They are indeed making a transition from rural to suburban. Growth is incredible out here.
The I-355 extension will certainly increase the growth as our clogged north south routes get much needed relief. In fact the growth of will county now that I-355 is going through should make the growth of Dupage county look rather slow.
I am running for Trustee of Joliet Junior College ( collegetrustee.org ) and the affect and costs of planning for the growth are hitting all the institutions from the grade school and park districts on up. There will need to be creative solutions to these problems. I hope to make my contribution.
Thanks
Scott Leturno
Candidate for Trustee
Joliet Junior College
9:47
The estimates aren't much more inaccurate than the actual census itself, which overcounts and undercounts various localities and groups in an estimated range of ±2% or so. When you're counting over 300 million people you're bound to miss a few and double count a few. It behooves the local agencies to get off their duff and do something instead of complaining about the undercount (I have yet to hear a complaint about an overcount-the cities usually hush up if they think they've been overcounted).
AAMOF, Illinois is a leader in municipalities doing partial and full Special Censuses (certified by the US Census) which allow them to take better advantage of tax apportionments, etc.
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