Monday, April 17, 2006

What Me Worry? You Worry.

Rich Miller posted a very interesting piece last week on struggling Governors, which cast some light on how Illinois' gubernatorial race might be playing out on the national scene.

And of course, the Chair of the GOP Governor's Association, Governor Mitt Romney was in town last week, claiming Blagojevich was on their target list, along with four to seven other Democrats.

That sounded kosher to me, because I always thought Blagojevich was up there on the target list. That was until I read this piece, which ranks the Governors by popularity, based on the SurveyUSA poll.

Surprisingly, Blagojevich ranked smack-dab in the middle on job approval, at 47%.

Even more surprising was to find 7 GOP governors ranked below Blagojevich. They include:

Ohio's Bob Taft (R) is not seeking re-election this year. He's mired in scandal along with the entire GOP and sitting at 18%. Republicans could easily lose this open seat race.

Alaska's Frank Murkowski (R) is up this fall. He sits at 29%, and hasn't even announced whether he'll try for re-election.

Texas' Rick Perry is at 46%, and is facing challenges not only from a Democrat, but Independent candidacies from popular Country and Western singer Kinky Friedman and Carole Keeton Strayhorn, former GOP mayor of Austin. Perry's plan to expand business taxes to include doctors is coming under heavy, heavy fire, but is backed by real estate developers seeking property tax relief.

Unfortunately for Republicans, things look terminal for the Terminator, as California's Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) sits at 35% +/61% -, doomed by a major revolt among moderates. He's now running dead-even with multi-millionaire State Controller Steve Westly. You can bet immigration will end up a hot issue there, as Schwarzenegger tries to straddle the fence between his conservative GOP base and middle-class moderates, many of whom are Latino. (note to Arnold: we can't all come into the country on acting visas).

Florida's Jeb Bush is at 55%, but he's been term-limited out of his job, and two Republicans are fighting neck-and-neck to replace him this fall. Expect some bleed-over from the U.S. Senate race while Kathleen Harris (that Kathleen Harris) tanks in the U.S. Senate race.

Indiana's Mitch Daniels (R) and Missouri's Roy Blunt (R) have two years to turn their ship around, luckily for them. They sit at 35% and 37%. Kentucky's Ernie Fletcher (R) is up in 2007. He sits at 38%.

And of course Presidential hopeful George Pataki realized he had no hopes of holding on for Governor against Democrat Elliot Spitzer, dubbed "Obama '06", who is expected to walk away with New York this fall.

If the GOP has any brains left now that Karl Rove is busy with his own troubles, they'll be focused on trying to hold on to what they've got in California, Texas, and especially swing-states Ohio and Florida. Picking up just one of those four in addition to NY would be a major coup for Democrats.

My bet is that the National GOP is smart enough to figure that out though, and all this talk about going after Blagojevich is just talk.

P.S. Mitt Romney's job approval rating is point above Blagojevich, at 48%, although he's likely to get a boost from much-heralded health care legislation.

25 comments:

Anonymous,  9:23 AM  

Why do you care so much about a Party you don't support? What a waste of time.

Anonymous,  9:31 AM  

Note to YDD... Mitt Romney's approval rating is 1 point higher while he is a conservative in a drastically liberal state. Blago is a liberal in a liberal state and he is below 50%... way to go....

Yellow Dog Democrat 9:45 AM  

Mitt Romney is hardly a conservative -- they guy just passed a big government, universal health care bill. Here's Mitt Romney on abortion:

* Endorsed legalization of RU-486. (Mar 2002)
* Personally against abortion, but pro-choice as governor. (Mar 2002)
* For safe, legal abortion since relative's death from illegal. (Oct 1994)

According to SurveyUSA, 26% of Massachussetts voters identify themselves as Conservative and 19% liberal. In Illinois, 30% of voters identify themselves as conservatives, while only 21% identify themselves as liberals.

Please check your facts before saying anything so embarrassingly false again.

Yellow Dog Democrat 9:47 AM  

Sorry lovie, I just realized that was your post. I thought it was an anonymous post. You're still wrong though.

Anonymous,  9:53 AM  

I don't care how many people say they are conservative or liberal. The most common democrat I have run into calls themselves "independent," even though they have picked up a democratic ballot for the last 18 years and have voted for a democrat for governor for the last 30. I don't care what people label themselves. I care about what the state actually is, and it is a liberal state. Romney has pandered to the Massachusetts crowd, but if he runs for president, he will run on being more conservative than his record shows. And I don't care for your statistics either. There are three types of lies: lies, damnable lies, and statistics!

Anonymous,  9:55 AM  

Why do you care so much about a Party you don't support?

why would a loyal democrat want to expose the feint that national republicans make *every* election year in illinois? could it be to demoralize the opposition? or expose their hypocrisy? maybe it's to take the wind of of topinka's sails, as she seeks to use karl rove's and the rga's support as a basis for the prodigious fund-raising that's required. one could go on.

i won't pretend to know why ydd does anything, but the possible reasons should be obvious. illinois republicans have problems, at least on the state level. i would think that exposing their weaknesses would thrill a partisan like ydd (who seems mostly interested in state politics), but i'm just guessing...

Anonymous,  10:02 AM  

Sounds like a fun way to spend time, bored now.

grand old partisan 10:15 AM  

YDD, due respect, but lovie is right.

Directly asking people if they are conservative or liberal is, by far, the least accurate way to assess where they actually are on the political spectrum. I literally learned that back in a 100 level poli sci class.

The vast majority of people in both Illinois and Massachusetts are liberal – despite how they may identify themselves to a pollster. I think, as lovie pointed out, their voting record speaks to that. Any state where the proportion of conservative to liberal voters actually was similar to those polling figures would NOT elect Ted Kennedy, John Kerry, or Dick Durbin.

Now, as to whether Romney is “conservative” or not – I’d definitely call him right-of-center. His healthcare policy is hardly “big government,” since the financial responsibility for coverage still, in most cases, falls to individuals and their employers, not the government. It is by and large a universal healthcare mandate, not a universal healthcare program like AllKids. And as for abortion – well, I don’t believe that a staunch pro-life position is necessary to be considered a “conservative.”

Bill Baar 10:36 AM  

Not having been a close follower of him, Romeny seems creative and effective.

I don't think anyone would say that about Blagojevich.

Anonymous,  10:45 AM  

I think Blagojevich is very creative... especially with numbers... like job creation numbers... and budget numbers... Blagomath, you must admit Bill, is very creative... but maybe not so effective....

Anonymous,  10:48 AM  

By the way... George Ryan verdict at 11. Be there or be square....

Yellow Dog Democrat 10:58 AM  

More Mitt Romney:

- Supports benefits for gay partners, but not gay marriage. (Sep 2002)
- Sexual orientation should not preclude being a Scout. (Oct 1994)
- Schools can teach family values, not religion or prayer. (Aug 1994)
- Will support assault weapons bill and Brady Bill. (Aug 1994)
- #8 on Human Events' list of Top Ten RINOs. (Dec 2005)

I hope we can all agree that a Governor who supports abortion rights, gay rights, universal health care and gun control is not a conservative, especially if they also oppose prayer in schools.

I'm happy to debate you guys on what states are liberal and which are conservative, as soon as you tell me what objective criteria you'd like to use. I've offered one. I agree it's not the best one, but if you've got a better one, let us know.

Anonymous,  11:10 AM  

Blago is NOT in the middle of the pack as you state. His ranking is tied for 36th. You must be using Blagomath.

The average as listed at the bottom of the article is 47% but this in no way means Blago is in the middle of the pack. The cold hard fact is that he is tied for 36th out of 50 states and this is not a fact either he or the State of Illinois should be proud of.

To quote the average percentage and then extrapolate that figure into stating Blago is in the middle of the pack is a major fundamental flaw in reasoning.

grand old partisan 11:57 AM  

YDD,

I admire your desire to find an objective barometer for a state’s ideological tilt. It is undeniably hard to find one. But what about the one that I have suggested – the Senate delegation of the state? Conservative groups and liberal groups have found common ground on the understanding that Kerry and Kennedy are sworn enemies of the former and loyal friends of the later. Why would those two receive such high vote margins and approval ratings in that state if it weren’t predominantly liberal?

Conversely, why do you think Romeny’s approvals are so low? Think about it: there are no allegations of scandals. He is a personally affable and respectable figure. Seems to me that the only reason people would have a problem with him is over policy. And it seems to me that, based on the ratings given to Kennedy and Kerry (considering their positions on the various issues in question), there is a strong argument to be made that Romney is less popular because his positions are not liberal enough, not because they are not conservative enough.

Anonymous,  12:03 PM  

Don't buy the Kinky Friedman nonsense in Texas. Kinky has run for office before as a Republican. Kinky has voted only once in the past 12 years, and it was for Bush/Cheney in '04 (interestingly, Kinky lied about voting in '00, but records confirm he skipped that election). Kinky's position on immigration is to the right of fellow Republicans Strayhorn or Perry. Kinky's petition drive is supported by many Perry supporters.

The net effect of Kinky's campaign is to divide the anti-cumbent vote to the point that the Republican incumbent is re-elected.

Anonymous,  12:21 PM  

Thank you, Stop Kinky. I know how much Kinky Friedman relates to Illinois politics. We appreciate your relevant comments and wish you would further make such comments. We here in Illinois will do all we can to make sure Kinky does not get on the ballot in Texas. Thank you, Stop Kinky, I look forward to your future thoughtful comments.

Anonymous,  2:35 PM  

You're welcome, Lovie. Your analysis of Mitt Romney and Massachusetts politics was really, really near the mark. Perhaps you are unaware of this, Lovie (although that seems unlikely), but Kinky's efforts in Texas are funded in large part from out-of-state supporters.

Yellow Dog Democrat 2:44 PM  

Sound reasoning -- you're right, I should've been more clear. His job approval is average for the nation. I wasn't extrapolating anything though. His job approval is average, or the mean, but you are correct, it is not the median.

GOP -- The truest way to ascertain whether or not a state is liberal or conservative is to poll them on actual ideological questions. First, of course, we would have to agree what defines each. I think it's a tough question because of the schism between economic conservatism and social conservatism, as well as the schism between authoritarian and libertarian conservatives.

Lovie - Stop Kinky just wants to make sure that Friedman doesn't get any votes hear in Illinois. No doubt a paid consultant for the current Texas Governor who does nothing but blog all day.

How do I get one of those jobs? :-)

grand old partisan 4:31 PM  

YDD - I agree that would be a pretty accurate test. And I agree that it would be difficult to settle on an objective set of issues, since there are so many schisms within the conservative movement - of course that is no doubt the inevitable result of a movement being so broad in appeal and deep in thoughtful intra-party, debate and intellectualism (sorry, couldn’t resist. I am in no way trying to imply that liberalism is shallow in thought or narrow in appeal).

But I still think you’re points are somewhat contradictory. If Massachusetts isn’t a liberal state, then why hasn’t it ever elected a truly conservative Governor?

I think Romney is center/slightly-right. I think the state of Mass. Is decidedly left of center. I think that is a reasonable statement of “fact” (to the extent that such exists in politics) and that it is also a reasonable explanation of why Romney has a relatively low approval rating.

Yellow Dog Democrat 11:53 PM  

Rastaman2 -- I never said Blagojevich was great. I never bragged. I just said that with all of the problems Republicans are having in key states, it's highly unlikely that their promise to dedicate large resources to Topinka is anything more than a bluff.

Just because I think Blagojevich is likely to win doesn't mean I think he's the better person for the job. Heck, if the better person for the job always won, alot of people I know would be out of a job.

GOP -- It's Massachussetts. I surrender. Back to my original point, what's the over/under on how much money Topinka raises? Who thinks she'll top $8 million?

grand old partisan 9:48 AM  

YDD - well played, old friend.

I'll venture to say that Topinka will raise more than Jim and less than George. Which is right where she needs to be.

I honestly don't want her to raise more than Blago....or anywhere near as much. Blago's excessively large warchest is just one more thing to help make the case that he actually has more in common with George Ryan than Judy.

Anonymous,  3:03 PM  

BTW YDD, when most bloggers borrow other material, they cite it...just and FYI for your future posts :)

Myclob 9:11 PM  

Mitt Romney is clearly a conservative. I told my wife I was going to study, so I need to hitt the books, but I'll write more later. Until then, get the facts here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitt_Romney

Myclob 8:41 AM  

Yellow Dog Democrat:

If all it takes to be president is having the right beliefs, and passing your litmus test, why aren’t you president? Or why don’t you run?

You see presidential candidates often try to be “accomplished”. Mitt Romney is fricken accomplished. He walked away from Harvard after 5 years with a law and business degree, as the valedictorian cum-laude and all that crap. He chose business instead of law. He started businesses, turned around old ones, and came back and turned around the ones he started, and that failed after he left.

Well, any ways he offers more than just the ability to check your box of saying he agrees with you.

You mentioned his stance on abortion to say he is not conservative. So according to you, a presidential candidate must not only agree with you on every issue but must have always agreed with you sense childhood? There is no room for someone to change even one opinion ever so slightly even if they had a family member DIE of a botched back-alley abortion?

Mitt Romney always said he was pro-choice but believed that states should be able to make up their own minds. He understood that Massachusetts was clearly pro-choice and he said he wasn’t going to force his opinions on those who disagree with him! What would you have done if you were running for Governor of Massachusetts? What would you have said if you were running against Ted Kennedy. In my opinion, Mitt Romney is the only creditable politician who can be president during a time when Row vs. Wade is over turned, and each state can choose for themselves. He respects the rule of law, and respected Massachusetts right to be pro-choice.

America will not elect someone who promises to make abortions illegal, however they might elect someone who puts in judges who let the states decide.

Mitt Romney knew in Massachusetts when to fight and when to move onto other issues. So now I’m moving on to other issues.

Mitt Romney is the John Roberts of presidential candidates. Squickey clean of controversy. Fully vetted. He didn’t take a pay check for the Olympics or as Governor. Compare this to Hillary and her cattle futures, and all the other unresolved issues of the Clinton presidency that focused on Hillary. Didn’t she make off with a lot of furniture from the white house. Mitt Romney is the only person that can run against Hillary. People want a solution to the health care problem. We have two options. Hillary-care 2008 or Romney-Care 2008. They can have Hillary and her cronies give us trail-lawyer care or we can have a market based solution from Mitt. OK maybe I’m over simplifying it. Mitt doesn’t even say that his program should be scaled nationwide. That it is a market based program that worked for Massachusetts, but you have your facts all wrong. It is going to cost government less to give the poorest of the poor health insurance with preventative care, than to deal with them in the ER.

Mitt Romney fixed a similar problem in Massachusetts that doesn’t get much press. Homeless were staying in hotels if shelters were full. Mitt Romney changed it so that it was a first in first out, instead of a last in first out, and saved the government billions. All this is doing is re-arranging the money that the government already spends so that it will motivate people to do the right thing, naturally, such as buy their own health insurance, stop going to the ER room for a headache because you know the government will pay for it. Mitt Romney is a conservative. He eliminated agencies, government jobs, cut the deficit without raising taxes. He is fascinated with efficiency. He is amazing at cutting fat. W agrees with you on all your litmus test issues that you give, but would you call him a conservative? He is spending like a drunken sailor, but because he said some nice things to the religius right, everyone says that he is ultra-conservative. I can make the case, and will do it latter than George Bush is a moderate, and that Mitt Romney is more conservative than Bush. This can easily be done, and you can do it yourself by looking at their records, if you don’t want to wait for me.

I’ve got to take my kid to the Dr’s he has pink eye, and I think I have it too now. But let me start one more issue: If Mitt Romney is not conservative, who is? You know after Keys, you might want someone who is fully vetted, and can win. Is Rudy fully vetted? There are so many skeletons in his closet. And although Bill Clinton was from the right religion (Baptist) republicans would look stupid after saying that someone that maybe we should try and pick someone for the highest office of the country that doesn’t go around having terrible affairs—and then we pick someone with one of the weirdest affairs to ever hit the tabloids. And don’t even get me started with the Geezer from Arizona. He has agreed with the democrats on all the wrong issues. Gomer-pile (from Virginal) might be the only “conservator” in your books who is running in 08, but he is trying his hardest just to win a re-election. But why the heck am I ripping on Rudy? He is an American hero, but he doesn’t meet your litmus test. It shouldn’t be my responsibility to prove that Mitt is more vetted than other candidates. You are the one who said he is not conservative enough, who is a better candidate in your eyes?

Myclob 12:14 PM  

It is very easy to figure out if Massachussetts is Liberal. From wikipedia:

Massachusetts's two U.S. senators (since 1985) are Edward Kennedy (Democrat) and John Kerry (Democrat); as of the 2001 redistricting, Massachusetts has ten seats in the United States House of Representatives (all Democrats), giving Massachusetts the largest one-party delegation in Congress (i.e. twelve Democrats). The state legislature is formally styled the "Great and General Court" and is manned mostly by Democrats: the Democrats currently maintain a 138-21 advantage over the Republicans in the State House (with one vacancy), and a 34-6 advantage in the State Senate.

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