Friday, April 14, 2006

Rod Rebounding in Polls, Conservatives Avoiding Topinka Like the Plague, and Three Wild Cards....What Does It Mean?

Blagojevich off life support and showing signs of recovery
As Rich Miller reported this morning, the latest SurveyUSA polls show that Governor Blagojevich's poll numbers have improved slightly over last month. But more important for the Governor is this trend, which shows his numbers improving pretty steadily over the past year.

Lovie's Leather got a little bent out of shape when I pointed out what I thought was pretty obvious: In a state where over 40% of voters identify themselves as Democrats and only 24% of voters call themselves Republicans, it will be next to impossible for Topinka to beat Blagojevich, especially if Blagojevich continues to consolidate his base and Topinka continues to struggle with hers. (P.S. Lovie, I'm sure not making any money off the Governor. In fact, I didn't even vote for him in the Primary, not that it makes what I said any more or less true).

Because the May '05 poll doesn't have full crosstabs, I've compared this month's crosstabs to July '05. Here's what I see:

- Overall job approval is up 11 points (47), including 16 points among Republicans and a more modest 5 points among Democrats, to 60% (BTW, Durbin is at 62% with Democrats);

- Blagojevich gained 12 points with pro-life voters and 6 points with pro-choice voters;

- Job approval shot up 16 points in the collar counties (45%) and 12 points downstate;

- Hispanic support is up 17 points, to 56%. Although Hispanics only make up 11% of registered voters, if immigration remains a hot federal issue and Latino leaders manage to leverage it into a voter registration and GOTV issue, their support could make the difference in an election that goes down to the wire;

- Job approval is up 11 points among conservatives and 11 points among moderates;

Granted, nine to twelve months ago Rod Blagojevich had nowhere to go but up, but given that he has steadily improved over the past nine months in every demographic crosstab, he holds a huge money advantage, and SurveyUSA shows that Illinois is now the bluest state in the Union -- with the possible exception of California (42% D v. 28% R) -- Topinka is staring up Mt. Everest.

The Big Question: Conservatives couldn't count on Judy, can she count on them?
With less than six months before Election Day, Topinka needs the political equivalent of a Perfect Storm in order to win. But rather than unite behind the GOP standardbearer, all signs indicate that Conservatives are poised to take the wind out of Topinka's sails:

- Tom Roeser says Conservatives would be better off re-electing Blagojevich than Topinka;
- Greg Blankenship's ultra-right Illinois Policy Institute says that Blagojevich is better than Topinka when it comes to tax policy;
- ISMIE, long the piggybank for GOP candidates, gave Rod Blagojevich an early Christmas present by cutting med mal insurance rates (think we won't see that t.v. ad in the Metro-East?), crediting the new cap on victims' compensation (which they previous said wouldn't have any benefit until the Supreme Court weighed in on the issue).

Will Conservative Republicans support Topinka next fall? Unlikely, if they remember how Topinka refused to support conservative Alan Keyes, excluding him from a state party mailer just two years ago.

The Wild Cards: Patrick Fitzgerald, the Economy and Sen. Meeks
Of course, Topinka won't need much help from conservatives if any of the several ongoing investigations into Gov. Blagojevich's office bear any real fruit. Fitzgerald will have to win the George Ryan trial first, of course. But any hopes from the Topinka camp that Fitzgerald will step up his timetable to boost her chances are in vain. In fact, he's more likely to let things cool of until after the election, since there's more or less an unwritten rule in Justice Department about not meddling with the outcome of an election. Also remember that it took dozens of low-level convictions to finally close the net around George Ryan, so if there is a prosecutorial path to Blagojevich, it is likely a long and winding road.

The Illinois Chamber of Commerce and Topinka were also hoping to make a major issue out of the economy this fall, but those hopes appear to be dimming. The Chamber's mantra has been that "200,000 manufacturing jobs lost over the last five years." Forget for a minute that 160,000 of those jobs were lost under George Ryan, and that no sane economist would blame George Ryan or any Governor for job losses that were a result of U.S. trade policy. When people are unemployed or scared, they lose all rationality, whatever the facts. Unfortunately for Topinka, the Chamber, and Republicans, Illinois' job creation numbers are finally beginning to catch up with the rest of the country, and Illinois unemployment rate has now fallen to it's lowest levels since 2000. Illinois' unemployment rate has fallen for 7 of the last 8 months, and assuming that rate continues, which seems pretty likely, the economy is unlikely to be much of an issue in this election. Still, if the economy suddenly turns south, it will be welcome news to Topinka, as Rich Miller hints in this link to National Journal coverage.

That leaves Sen. James Meeks. I don't think he can make much of a dent in Blagojevich's numbers (let alone win), because you need money, staff, consultants, and your own political base to run statewide, and Meeks has none of those. But, if he gets in there is always a chance he'll tilt the election in Topinka's favor, which he wouldn't mind at all since she'll undoubtedly support some sort of income tax increase.

And since Meeks already has another fulltime gig and doesn't need a state pension, he has almost nothing to lose by running. I say "almost" because, if Meeks gets in and Blagojevich still wins, the election will be remembered as a referendum on the property tax swap idea just as 1994 was, and reform will be dead for another 12 years. Having said all that, I think there is a very good chance Meeks will throw his hat in the ring, especially if Deputy Governor Bradley Tusk keeps making in-your-face comments like these.

Predicting any election is tricky business, but right now I give Blagojevich 3-to-1 odds in a head-to-head match-up. But if Meeks gets in, all bets are off in a three-way race.

Update: Sorry about the broken Daily Southtown link. It's fixed now. Here's what Tusk called Kadner to say: "We are not changing our position on taxes. Let there be no misconception about that." Absolutely nothing reconciliatory about that. It's an invitation for Meeks to run.

23 comments:

Anonymous,  12:30 AM  

YDD... thanks for feeding my ego...

I have trouble believing that the conservatives will sit out and beat the Blago drum for the next 7 months. I think they will become what I have become... a Topinka lap dog. I didn't want her to win the primary... and I certainly didn't vote for her.... But she is evil of two lessers or something like that.... Even Oberweis thinks she is better than Blagojevich. This brings me back to why I don't consider myself a "conservative." I have basic conservative values... yet one thing makes me different from most conservatives... I am willing to compromise to make things a little better. Unfortunately, most conservatives will "refuse to sell-out their moral values" and vote for a third party candidate that has absolutely no chance to win. They will make things a lot worse instead of making things a little better. Isn't funny that the people that complain about the moral decline of our country, are the same people that cause it....

Anonymous,  2:03 AM  
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous,  6:54 AM  

I would quit tooting my own horn YDD.Time has a way of ruining the best plan of poor leaders like Blago.More studies are coming out on state finances and it isn't good for Blago.Hey if he such a leader wht can't him and the other Demwits put a budget together.The Demwit party controls the all three branches of government and still needs a road map to lead.

Anonymous,  8:20 AM  

Thank you for actually posting on Illinois politics rather than inane issues that I could go elsewhere if I wanted to read about like abortion in El Salvador, the gospel of Judas, and pointless internet manifestos

Anonymous,  9:22 AM  

YDD,

I have to agree with much of what you say on this, but you forgot Stufflebeam (C). He is working hard down south to get on the ballet and I wouldn't count out the chance he will get on. This will make it a four way race and he will hurt Topinka and Meeks because pro-lifers will have two options, not just one.

The problem with what Lovie's Leather says is that when we conservatives compromise our values and vote for someone like Topinka we end up legitimizing the liberal to moderate view and the Republican party begins to run nothing but people who are democrat light at best. Then if we run a conservative the same people stab us in the back and refuse to support us. (These are the majority of people screaming at us to get behind the party.)

People like Grand Old Partisan have probably made some of the best partisan arguments to vote for Topinka. Actually, GOP has made a better argument then Topinka has. However, after taking a second very hard look at her I find myself in the same place as before…I will not vote for her. I understand the political world enough to understand sometimes you have to lose one in order to win the next one. I honestly believe after 4 more years of democrat rule that Illinois will begin to shift back right some. Here are some reasons why:

I believe our governor will be investigated strong after the election.

The Child Health Care proposal will cripple our state financially.

George Ryan’s trail will finally be over and Republicans have a chance to move on.

2006 will probably be a bad year for National Republicans, however 2008 will provide a chance for Republicans to get their act together and the positive effects of that will filter somewhat to Illinois Republicans.

Gas Prices will continue to be a big problem over the next few years and by the next Gov. election it will hurt the incumbents.

The war in Iraq will be over and the negative backlash will no longer be a driving force for Democrats.

I national economy will probably face a real economic downturn in the next few years. (Economies are cyclical and downturns are a natural phenomenon as failing businesses final go under and the economy naturally rebounds as new businesses rise to replace them) By the next governors race I predict we will have a 1 to 2 year downturn, and the despite the effects being for the most part naturally, incumbents will pay a price at the ballet box.

Finally I believe Rod will go back to making the same bad decision he has made the last couple of years and by the next elections everyone will be ready for new blood.

Topinka has democrat appeal, but lackluster support from her base at best. And I am tired of this argument that I have to vote for the lesser of two evils. Wrong. I can come out and support Republican candidates that are good and not support those who are bad. I actually expected many of my conservative friends to waver over time on this and support Topinka as the lesser of two evils. Instead, the conservatives I am talking to have begun moving farther away from her and looking hard at Meeks and Stufflebeam. Others say they will vote, but not in the governors race.

As much as it hurts this republican to admit it. I have to go with YDD on this. 3 to 1 odds in favor of Rod in a two way race. But I think he beats Topinka in either a three or four way race as well.

Anonymous,  9:41 AM  

Yeah... Judy is beating the incumbent in early polls... yet somehow everyone is pussing out and saying Rod is 3:1 to win. WTF?! He is in big trouble... but there are a lot of people out there that don't like Judy, so it suddenly becomes, "Oh gosh, Rod is gonna clean her clock." and crap like that. Get your head out of your butts and realize that Judy has a great chance of winning. Just wait and see....

Daniel Darling 11:29 AM  

I think that everyone is dismissing the effect Meeks will have on Topinka--I think he will steal more voters from her than from the Gov. Conservatives may not actively work for Meeks, but at the ballot box they will really think hard about voting for Meeks.

Yellow Dog Democrat 12:17 PM  

Anon 6:54 - I'm not tooting my own horn. As I said, I didn't vote for Blagojevich on March 21st, and I supported Vallas 4 years ago.

I agree that things can still change, but I wouldn't pin my hopes on economic forecasts of the state. Thanks to Bill Baar for pointing out the NIU study. It's a must-read, because they ask a lot of budget questions. You'll see that Central Illinois, where public employees are over-represented, is the only place where voters really care about these deeper policy issues, like balanced budgets and pension underfunding.

For the most part, voters want the government to be spending more on education and health care, they just don't want their taxes to go up to pay for it. Rod is giving the people what they want. Whether or not that's responsible or not is a whole 'nother debate. It certainly isn't bad politics.

And the budget issue cuts both ways. Read this response from Barry Miram. He points out that it is Topinka who has blocked short-term borrowing that would easy the Medicaid payment cycle, but that the current cycle is still much shorter than it was under Jim Edgar. That's pretty potent and straight-forward stuff.

And Conservative Proletariat, thanks for your input. I hadn't heard anythingabout Stufflebeam's candidacy, so I hope you'll post more.

I totally sympathize with conservatives. I remember how angry liberals were when Glen Poshard won the nomination in 1998. I disagreed with their decision at the time to dump Poshard, in part because I thought the focus on his conservative views was overblown and I believed Poshard was a man of great principle. But, give them credit, four years later liberals got a Democratic nominee they could live with.

And Lovie, I give Topinka some credit for having an early lead in the polls, but I don't think it means much. Remember, Topinka started the GOP primary at about 40% and ended at 40%. She has her core support in the Republican party, but the more Republicans got to know her, the more they wanted to vote for somebody else. She has negative momentum, exacerbated by GOP problems in D.C., while Rod has positive momentum at this point.

Anonymous,  2:56 PM  

YDD-Thanks for your insights, we should just cancel the election and maintain-things are really great here in Illinois. I don't know how we could possibly make things any better. I'm so happy now that I have you to think for me.

FightforJustice 3:01 PM  

Do I understand correctly that the Dem candidate promises not to raise taxes, while the Repub candidate won't take the pledge and is widely expected to raise taxes if elected? Yet Dems except for Meeks are backing the no-new-taxes candidate, while most Repubs who hate higher taxes are backing the candidate of higher taxes? Something is wrong here.

Yellow Dog Democrat 3:49 PM  

Anon 2:56 -- I'm just telling you what most voters want. Don't kill the messenger. I'm all for a change, and I think Topinka's support for a tax increase is the right way to go. Although I've never voted for a Republican before, I was leaning toward supporting her for that reason alone.

But then she went out and picked Joe Birkett as her running mate and made reinstating the death penalty one of the main planks in her campaign.

It's fair to criticize Blagojevich for political grandstanding at times, but Rod's flaws are minor compared to Judy's willingness to embrace a terribly flawed system that destroys innocent lives just to throw some red meat to the GOP base.

Anonymous,  3:59 PM  

So tell me, what terribly flawed system would Topinka use that Blago isn't already using????

Anonymous,  4:28 PM  

Topinka is nothing great. But people just don't like Rod. Rod doesn't seem real or sincere.
Some of his programs sound good but who is going to pay for them?

Anonymous,  7:31 PM  

Who is going to pay for it?! That is the question that everyone needs to be asking. So Blago hasn't raised taxes on individuals... who cares? He has raised taxes on the businesses in Illinois. Businesses in turn, raise the cost of their good to pay their taxes. Rod makes businesses seem like the evil... as opposed to himself... who is the evil....

Yellow Dog Democrat 11:49 PM  

Lovie -- Blagojevich has placed a moratorium on the death penalty, since only 17 of the 85 or so recommendations of the Ryan Commission have been re-enacted.

If Topinka is elected, she says she will lift the moratorium.

Yellow Dog Democrat 11:55 PM  

Lovie -- I would argue that eliminating loopholes for certain targeted businesses is more fair to the other businesses that ARE paying their fair share.

The Governor has had plenty of dumb ideas, like selling the Thompson Center, policing video game content, and renaming our state parks for Coca-Cola. As someone who pays my fair share of business taxes, I'm glad the Governor wants to end the free ride for the political insiders.

Jonah 8:34 AM  

What were Tusk's comments? Your link gets me a comic article on the exploits of suburban man.
Meeks is going to make it to the ballot, so predictions for what will happen if he doesn't are moot point.

Anonymous,  8:35 AM  

Once again, your obsession with conservatives is great, keep it up, I enjoy your posts.

Anonymous,  9:30 AM  

The wild card is the federal investigations and pending indictments. The sleaze factor will destroy Rod.

Anonymous,  7:07 AM  

So the Guv wants to end the free ride for political insiders, huh? Well, how come at HFS, a friend of a person who was canned for unsavory conduct has been appointed to fill that place? If you work for an insider and your friends are all insiders, how does your appointment end the free ride? It's just that the political leanings of the insiders has changed. Now the insiders don't have to know anything except how to give money and support to the Guv.

And regarding the Guv's popularity, it will be interesting to see the public's reaction when he starts up programs that have no monetary backing and they fall flat. The reimbursement rate for providers from the state is now 120 days out and climbing and the special accounts raids are beginning. They are even trying to grab money that isn't from state or federal coffers. I guess if you have your flunkies scream your praises loud enough, you'll fool someone, but you can't fool your creditors. This state is broke, in more ways than one.

Bill 9:06 AM  

The Gov and GA Dems will craft a budget that does exactly what a large majority of citizens want... fund education, health care for children, veterans, and the elderly.
There will be no indictments because Rod has never done anything illegal.
Education has been funded at unprecedented levels since the Gov took office and he will increase funding as much as is fiscally possible without raising sales or income taxes.
Pension reform will eliminate many of the abuses that have occurred in the past while saving the plans over 40 million dollars in the out years.
While this may upset state employees and some right-wingers, the vast majority of voters will show their approval in November.
It took 30 years for our state's fiscal problems to develop. The gov has taken great strides toward fixing them. He needs another term to continue his plan to make the state work for its citizens instead of the citizens working for the state.
The best is yet to come!

Anonymous,  12:13 PM  

GRod may not have done anything illegal (although I am not sure how you know) but Kelly and Resko certainly did as did Obadale and Roberson. Public indictments, investigations and plea agreements indicate that.
GRod is PUBLIC OFFICIAL A.

Anonymous,  5:46 AM  

There's something both YDD and Proletariat are not realizing. There is actually a possibility of there being 5 candidates on ballot. Rich Whitney of the Green party is doing the same thing as Stufflebeam in having to acquire 25,000 signatures to get on ballot, which is the same thing that Meeks has to do if he is going to get on ballot.

Things could get VERY interesting in this.
If Meeks get's on ballot, he will be polls are already showing that he will pull votes from both Topinka and Blagojevich, thought about 50% more from Blagojevich. Whitney will be pulling liberal votes from Blagojevich and if conservatives got behind Stufflebeam..... Let's just say that realistically, Stufflebeam could come away with a victory with as little as 25% of the votes.

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