Sunday, April 09, 2006

Topinka and the Democrats

Topinka gets Democrats. I took it for granted. Compare those who voted for Ryan in 2002 vs those who voted for her in suburban Cook.



I just took it for granted. So many Republicans tell me she's a Democrat anyways I just made an assumption. Knowing assumptions can make an ass-of-you-me, I pulled the numbers for suburban Cook and that's what it sure looks like.

What am I getting wrong?

Listen to Terry Cosgrove by the way and you'd think Topinka in Stanek's pocket.

Not only is Judy Baar Topinka’s record as a legislator anti-choice 84% of the time, including voting FOR spousal consent twice, she hand picked right wing anti-abortion darling Joe Birkett as her running mate----and by running mate that means you get ONLY ONE VOTE for Governor and Lt. Governor on the November ballot because, by law, they run as a team.

28 comments:

Anonymous,  9:00 AM  

what happened to the "four post per week" guideline? have you ever heard of self-discipline? (or considered being more selective about what you post on illinoize?)

Anonymous,  9:21 AM  

Birkett has no real power so the move is an empty one.

Topinka votes in favor on the margin of pro-life issues, because the polls show overwhelming support for issues like partial-birth abortion bans and parental consent.

This attempt to make Topinka out to be a pro-lifer is laughable and the social conservatives are not buying it.

I also find it interesting that the majority of people on here don't seem to think the Republicans don't need the social conservative vote to win, yet, every couple days another person comes out trying to sell us on how pro-life she really is. Funny, for a group the Republicans don't "need", there sure seems to be a near panic to get us on board!

Sorry, were not interested this time. Topinka is going to get blown away by Rod. Maybe after she gets beat the Republican party will finally be ready for reforms and ready to come back to the values that gave us the President, and both houses of Congress.

Anonymous,  10:27 AM  

Wow, what a bombshell. Dems vote for Topinka. Stop the presses!

Topinka's a Democrat. Not a RINO, not a moderate or liberal - she's a Democrat who once every 4 years appears on a Repub ballot.

So the Democrat got more votes in Democrat controlled Cook than Jim Ryan did in 2002. What's your point Bill?

Plus everyone knows Topinka made all sorts of deals with the Chicago Dems in 2002. Tom Dart was the odd man out and the Dem party went with the real liberal, Topinka. That hardly speaks well of Topinka in the minds of real Republicans.

A REAL story is the fact that Topinka got 48 thousand FEWER votes STATEWIDE last month, than the winner of the Cook County 3-way race for Sheriff!

That Sheriff nominee of course was Tom Dart.

Heck, Topinka only got 5,700 more votes than Eisendrath statewide!

Bill, make a fool of yourself all you want. To know Judy is to vote for someone else. Her numbers will keep dropping everyday.

grand old partisan 12:20 PM  

"Topinka is going to get blown away by Rod. Maybe after she gets beat the Republican party will finally be ready for reforms and ready to come back to the values that gave us the President, and both houses of Congress."

Excuse me? If Illinois alone decided the make-up of Congress, Dick Durbin would be the Majority leader of a one-party Senate and Rahm Emanuel would be Speaker.

Are you out of your mind, CP?

What part of the fact that there are many, many more registered Democrats and liberals in this state then there are registered Republicans and conservatives do you seem to have a hard time understanding? The GOP nominee MUST be able to take a significant number of Dem crossovers in order to win. That's a simple fact. Tell me which of the conservative GOP candidates could have done that and support that with polling data.

Anonymous,  1:09 PM  

I think your arithmetic is wrong. The numbers you have calculated are TOPINKA LESS RYAN. I have always voted for Judy Barr and will vote for her again. Any aggressive and assertive woman who wears the pants in state government can't be all bad, unlike Rod. What a mistake my vote for Rod was last time.

Bill Baar 2:00 PM  

right anon,

Topinkia less Ryan equals democrats who crossed over to vote for her.

I didn't think it was a bombshell eithter but when I suggested Dems would be crossing over to vote for her (again) I was shot down for ownly citing ancedotal evidence.

So I pulled the numbres.

Add up the absoute number of votes represented here, and compare to the number of Brady+Oberweis voters and you get the number of social conservatives.

I'm guessing above represents a larger chunk of votes so if it becomes a trade off between social conservatives and cross over Dems, she goes for the Dems.

I guess that's her strategy.

Bill Baar 2:22 PM  

Your right about the col headings though... it's Topinka less Ryan.

I'm just used to looking at differences... the signs are irrelevant as long as consistent.

Topinka's percentages all far higher than Ryans telling me a lot of Blagojevich voters crossed over to vote for her when they got down the treasurers race between Dart and Topinka.

Anonymous,  6:11 PM  

Wow, these are the same kind of analyses that Russ Stewart likes to do, and he's usually really really wrong, so I don't know if this is the way to make a point Billiam.

Anonymous,  6:54 PM  

Some of those Topinka-but-not-JRyan voters are independents, not Democrats. Nevertheless, Grand Old Partisan has it right: in a general election, it's good to win over the votes of the opposing party.

On a different part of the post: as a pro-choicer, I have a fair amount of frustration with the antics of Terry Cosgrove and Personal PAC. Personal PAC will go out of its way to portray candidates whom it does not like as extremists, often without real proof.

On the other hand, the pro-lifers like Stanek are just as bad as Cosgrove. If you don't accept every single one their positions -- including the belief that the pill is an "abortifacient" -- you support baby-killing.

Fightforjustice has it essentially correct: Rod is the more pro-choice candidate. But Topinka's positions on abortion are not too far from Jim Edgar's, who remains pretty popular with swing voters.

Illinois voters, for the most part, don't buy the extremist positions on either side of the issue. Personal PAC stands to get some serious egg on its face if it continues to portray mostly-pro-choice candidates like Topinka and Mark Kirk as extremists.

Anonymous,  8:51 PM  

Bill, it's wrong to argue that Topinka got more votes than Jim Ryan because of Dem cross-overs. Yes, some probably were. But more were certainly Independents. The percentage of voters who affiliate with any one party is way down in IL just like everywhere else.

Topinka beat Dart in 2002 because she cut deals with Dems like Bobby Rush - got his endorsement and then right after the election hires Rush's wife into a big job in her State office. Just more pay to play.

Topinka was the Combine's candidate then, just like now. Dart was sacrificed.

Also recall the way she exploited herself on TV through the ads for Treasurer programs right before the 2002 election. Something that is now illegal.

Plus, Topinka was running for an office that no one really cares about. The Gov's race is a whole different ball game.

Dart lost in 2002, but last month got 48 thousand more votes in just one county than Judy did statewide.

Give us a break Bill. If Judy had such cross-over appeal, why didn't more Dems try to help her last month. Why did nearly 2 of 3 voters reject her?

Anonymous,  9:01 PM  

Cosgrove has no credibility

Anonymous,  10:15 PM  

Let me tell you this... if Topinka loses and Blago gets 4 more awful years, it will not be the fault of Topinka... but the fault of the so-called republicans out there that keep saying that she is gonna get creamed. You make that happen. This is our chance people, to take the gov mansion back. And all you can do is crap on Topinka instead of help her. The Tom Roeser crowd has unofficially left the party, and if they are going to act like the bastards that they are, good ridance. Don't do this, don't let the democrats keep the governorship with the help of the far right. Do what is best for the party and what is best for Illinois

Bill Baar 7:14 AM  

Anon 8:51

Some people saw them crossing over to help in the primary.

I know there are independents in here. Look at Oak Park and Evanston high up in the list.

My only point, and I don't think it's a surprize, was most people I know involved in politics are Regular Dems in the near west burbs. They've known Topinka for years and have donated to her this time.

I was called for not making a very scientific observation with that (it's not.. hardly) so I just pulled some numbers to show the obvious appeal JBT has accross lines.

Whether she sustains it I don't know.

On a related note, I saw Birkett and Quinn on CLTV this AM. That's great debate between these two guys. I'm looking forward to seeing more of them.

Anonymous,  12:00 PM  

I think the real point is being missed here: Abortion is not the real dividing line for Repubs in Illinois and never has been. Gay Marriage is the real issue today. Not to downplay the importance of the abortion issue -- it's just that polls show a huge majority of people in IL (and in almost every other state) are dead set against gay marriage, but not abortion. If JBT were pro-choice but anti-gay marriage, she'd have a much better chance. But as she is not, unless Blago really really screws up I don't see how she is going to get in.

Anonymous,  12:44 PM  

GOP wrote:

...The GOP nominee MUST be able to take a significant number of Dem crossovers in order to win. That's a simple fact. Tell me which of the conservative GOP candidates could have done that and support that with polling data.

My Reply:

This is undoubtedly true, but too many Republicans seem to forget another simple fact. Any "Appeal" to Dem crossovers that results in a loss of votes from the right is either a loss or a wash at best.

I'm not voting for Topinka (she'd have to really show me something to get me to change my mind)

The cross-overs that a Republican needs probably fall under the old rubric of "Reagan Democrats". Why would any of these folks vote for Topinka? She'll raise taxes as faster than Rod, and spend them just as fast.

Frankly GOP, the candidates that get the most "crossover" nationally are the more conservatives ones. Though IL is nominally more liberal than the nation, there is no reason to think the model is that different.

It's pretty obvious that Brady would have been the candidate that would have been the toughest for Rod. He'd have gotten crossovers from the so-called "Reagan Democrats" without destroying the turnout of the base. (would that winning was his intent?)

Topinka may yet win, but it will be from left crossovers convinced that she's a) to the left of Rod on most issues or b) even more able to be bought.

grand old partisan 1:13 PM  

extrawise,

I'm sorry, I don't buy the idea that Judy is more likely than Rod to raise taxes or would be as generous with spending.

I also think that saying Illinois is only "nominally" more liberal than the rest of the nation is like saying Utah is "nominally" more conservative.

I agree that perhaps Brady could have mounted a serious challenge to Rod. I like him, and I hope he runs again one day. But right now we have two choices: Blago or Judy. And I just don't buy into the notion that she's no better than he on the issues that matter most to Republicans.

Extreme Wisdom 2:16 PM  

GOP,

Let's not ignore the obvious. First, waiting in the wings here in IL is a monstrosity called HB750.

It is a massive tax hike that is wrapped in a lie called "Property tax relief." The "relief" will disappear in about 1.5 year, and the structure of the bill is such that most people won't even see a reduction of their property tax bill.

The backlash from its passage will be substantial, particularly as more and more light is shed on the massive pension waste that both parties have showered on protected interests.

It will pass in 2007 no matter who wins because virtually all Democrats and about half of the Republicans want to pay back the poltical class that funds their campaigns.

Blago will veto it and have it overridden while JBT will sign it and twist Republican arms to make it "bipartisan." Once again, a massive tax hike for Illinois will be "Republican tax hike."

Next, the idea that JBT will get anything like "parental notification" or gun owner friendly legislation passed is laughable. What ever gets past Madigan will be hopelessly watered down.

Lastly, it is not outside the realm of reason to believe that Topinka, should she win, will do all she can to undermine conservatives in OUR party before she does ANYTHING to undermine Democrat clout in IL.

Let's make no mistake. Many Republicans tell us that one reason we need a Rep. governor is so that once a again a Republican will control the day-to-day apparatus of appointments, jobs, patronage, and such.

As a conservative, is this in my interest? Gee, Thompson, Edgar and Ryan had control of that apparatus for 2.5 decades. They did wonders, right?

Sorry. This is one conservative who is more than happy to see Rod ride out the next four years. I'd rather be looking in front of me watching for Rod's punches than watching my back for Topinka's knives.

grand old partisan 2:42 PM  

Extreme,

Your assertion that Judy will sign 750 says volumes about how much of your posturing against her is based on your pre-conceived opposition to a moderate and how much is actually based on an objective analysis.

750 is terrible for the business community. Judy has always, always, always been pro-business. Saying that she will definitely raise taxes or sign any legislation that does raise taxes just because she won’t take a hollow pledge like Rod is an insulting distortion of the truth.

And if she won’t be able to pass parental notification or pro-gun bills through Madigan’s House, what made you think Oberweis or Brady could have? Aren’t you just admitting what practical conservatives like myself have been saying for years now – that abortion politics are a pointlessly destructive feature of our primary battles?

If you are content to see Rod “ride out the next four years,” should we expect that every post or comment you make during those 4 years that is critical of the Governor and his policies will be accompanied with the reminder of how key you were in helping re-elect him, right?

Extreme Wisdom 2:59 PM  

GOP,

Your point about the Business Community is an interesting one. So, if they were so dead set against 750, where were they when it was up last year? I was down in Springfield and testifying at Madigan's dog & pony shows, and I didn't see any evidence of an anti750 business presence.

It could have been based upon their certainty that it wouldn't pass, but that may mean they are just waiting for a better deal.

So if Judy can swing a 750 that buys off the Business community, then it's off to the races? That appears to be how things are in IL. Reading Crains is all one needs to do to see that the business community isn't "conservative." They are for sale as well.
__

Your question about OB and Brady is a good one too. Here is how I see it. The governor sets a certain tone. S/he also has the bully pulpit. This has a pretty large impact. Judy's tone will be "business as usual" (c'mon, admit it) and OB, Gidwitz or Brady would probably have set a better one.

Further, OB or Brady would have brought out more of the conservative vote, which would have at least kept the numbers in the GA the same as they are now.

I'm still betting Topinka costs us 2-4 seats per chamber. (I'd be glad to be wrong.)

___

Lastly, I will be happy to critique Rod with out feeling the least bit guilty about dissing JBT. The moment you persuade me she would do anything different than Rod, I'll change my mind.

BTW, don't try such persuasion by pointing me to anything she's said. I don't trust her. You, OTOH, still have some credibilty.

grand old partisan 3:22 PM  

extreme:

I can tell you that last session I was working for a large local chamber, and your guess that the lack of activity regarding 750 was based on the certainty that it woudn't pass is absolutely the case. The business community wants nothing to do with anything that will increase the corporate income tax. Period.


Now, I would like to take you up on your challenge to persuade you to change your mind about JBT:

Difference #1:
Pay to play cronyism vs. all open bidding - Rod does the former, Judy the latter when it comes to contracts.

Difference #2:
NRA Rating - Rod, F; Judy, A

Difference #3:
Parental Notification - Rod is opposed, Judy in favor (oh, wait....I forgot that you don't take her word for things. Not sure how else I can prove it, though).

Difference #4:
Minimum Wage Hike - Rod is in favor, Judy is opposed (damn, see above)

Difference #5:
Dedicated funds - Rod has expressed an interest in putting all of the money into the general fund, where there is no way to ensure that it is spent on the purpose for which it was collected, while Judy favors preserving the integrity of those funds. (Man, I guess I can't really cite that either....)

I could go on listing difference, but what's the point if you'll be working under the assumption that everything she says is a lie?

My question is, what has she every done to deserve such skeptism. She has run for elective office some 1/2 dozen times over the past 15 or so years. Has she ever broken a promise, or gone back on something she said during one of those campaigns?

I see no reason to assume that what she tells the public on the campaign trail will be tossed out the window once she moves into the mansion.

Extreme Wisdom 3:33 PM  

GOP,

Good questions. Will do some research and get back to you.

Gotta do a radio show.

Extreme Wisdom 8:53 AM  

GOP,

After some thought and a little blogging, I have the following comments.

Generally, I see these points as struggles to create large differentiation where there is actually very little.

Both Topinka and Blago follow pork, patronage, pay-to-play philosophy of government.

Most attempts to differentiate could be filed in the "Yeah, and G. Ryan said he was pro-life" file.

You and I both know that should Topinka win, she will owe center-left crossovers much more than she would owe any center-right block of voters. That is who will get what they want from her.



That said...

iDifference #1:
Pay to play cronyism vs. all open bidding.

EW writes:

Come now. In her debate with three millinaires, she as much admitted she needed Illinois's version of legalized graft to compete.

Banks, Cellini, Hotel...ring any bells? Were "Cash Dash" and "Bright Start" open bid? By what definition?

Difference #2:
NRA Rating - Rod, F; Judy, A

EW Response:

I see this as grasping at any straw to convince people there of some conservative credential. Is an NRA rating differential something I'd vote on? Sure. Enough to support Topinka? Not hardly. If she gets in, I will enjoy watching the flood of pro-gun legislation, though.

Difference #3:
Parental Notification - Rod is opposed, Judy in favor

EW Response:

Again, If she gets in, I will enjoy watching the flood of pro-life legislation. Let me go one further. Should a parental notification bill ever get to her desk, she will find some reason to veto it.

Difference #4:
Minimum Wage Hike - Rod is in favor, Judy is opposed

EW Response: Nice to know this. (see below)


Difference #5:
Dedicated funds - Rod has expressed an interest in putting all of the money into the general fund, ...

EW Response:

The problem in IL has very little to do with General v Dedicated funds. It has to do with a culture of what I continue to call "legalized corruption." Both parties live that culture, and both of their voters are complicit.

Look GOP, we are just going to disagree here. To the extent that the items above are actual differentiations, they aren't enough to convince me to "take one for the team."

It is time for the "Thompson, Edgar, Ryan, Topinka" party to die. If I could be convinced that Republican/Conservative fortunes would be served by keeping them around, I suppose I might change my mind.

For my part, I think Republican/Conservative fortunes are better served with them gone.

grand old partisan 9:21 AM  

EW, I am content to respectfully agree to disagree, as long as we stick to the facts and not your ungrouded assumptions. Case in point: on what are you basing your assertion that Judy would fine some pretext to veto any parental notification law that actually made it to her desk? Not liking or agreeing with her on other issues is not a sufficient enough reason to assume she will go back on her word once elected. If you have another reason, if there is some history of here going back on campaign promises or changing positions on issues once elected, I'd like to hear it. Because it would be news to me.

As for the idea that the IL GOP would be better served by "principled conservatives" (not a quote from you, but I think that's what you are getting at), I have seen no evidence to support that, but plenty to debunk it. Every poll showed Democrats and independants rallying around Blago when he was pitted against conservatives like Oberweis or Brady, and no amount of mobilization of the conservative base can overcome that give Illinois's partisan and ideological demographics . Do you really think that just another four years will change that?

Again, I will reiterate that I am personally very much to the right of Judy on almost every issue. But, as a "political scientist" (one with both formal education on the subject and field experience in Illinois and other states), I have concluded that our best bet for winning is to stick with the Thompson/Edgar/Ryan/Topinka formula. Jim Ryan's defeat to Blago was caused by both the tainting of Ryan's name and the rather unhelpful emphasis placed on his pro-life position during both the primary and general. We need to regroup and return to what we know works, if we ever want to get Chicago Democrats out of the mansion. And yes, there is a difference between having a Chicago Democrat and a moderate Republican who can make some deals in order to get things done when needed.

But I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

Extreme Wisdom 10:15 AM  

GOP,

You are right about the difference between Democrats and moderate Republicans.

Dems (Walker & Blago) don't increase Income and Sales taxes and Moderate Republicans do. (note that I believe taxes will be hiked next year regardless)

It's really this simple. I trust Rod to act like a Democrat much more than I trust Judy to act like a Republican.

Further, your description of IL, when one reads between the lines, is akin to saying "there is nothing we can do, so we have to surrender the issues, the policy, and the future to whatever scraps we can get from the table.

To me, accepting a Topinka in our party is a surrender of sorts. Maybe I'm overly idealistic and belong in Idaho or Arizona, but why should we surrender such a fine state to a culture of political hacks and bankrupt public pension pigs.

Your answer seems to be "because we have to." I guess I disagree.

Bill Baar 3:04 PM  

EW,

Is your issue with JBT distrust on cronyism,

or,

she's too moderate on social issues?

b

Anonymous,  4:12 AM  

The two are not mutually exclusive.

Bill Baar 7:28 AM  

I know TJ, but they're two vastly different sets of issues.

Extreme Wisdom 9:57 AM  

Bill,

80% trust & cronyism. 20% Social Issues.

I'm way right of Gidwitz, but I'd have voted for him over Blago.

Topinka? I'll sit that out, and I'll try to convince as many as I can to do the same.

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