Wednesday, February 27, 2008

A Look at the Latino Vote in the Illinois Presidential Primary

In the immediate aftermath of the February 5th primary some in the press noticed that Hillary Clinton ran particularly strong in some of the wards that had strong ward organizations with politically powerful leaders who had pledged to support Obama. This was explained due to the strength of the Clinton campaign among women and Latinos, a notion supported by this vote total by congressional district breakdown that shows that Clinton ran strong in Illinois' 4th congressional district which is represented by Congressman Luis Gutierrez, a heavily Latino district.

I decided to try and gather some data to see if that proved out. Below is a table that shows all of the wards that had at least 30% Hispanic according to the 2000 census (data that is 8 years old). Additionally, I decided to see what percent of the turnout in these wards was female in 2004 and 2006 by adding up the totals from a voter file. While it's important to note that there is no margin of error on these two columns because this figure was determined from the entire universe instead of a sample, it is equally (if not more) important to note that just because the percentage of females among the turnout was some number in 2004 and/or 2006 it doesn't necessarily mean that the 2008 turnout had the same allocation. These numbers should only be used for reference purposes. Anyway, here's the table:

Ward% Hisp06Female04Female% Clinton% Obama
155.12%50.46%50.97%31.11%67.14%
1057.09%51.58%52.29%50.75%46.63%
1134.01%51.59%52.02%54.03%41.52%
1269.38%51.15%50.51%60.14%37.52%
1341.38%53.41%53.27%51.22%44.24%
1475.53%52.07%51.24%60.52%36.89%
2291.18%52.36%50.72%56.31%42.94%
2570.46%51.32%52.04%50.07%47.89%
2671.07%53.18%53.78%38.21%59.93%
3066.45%52.51%52.71%53.02%45.02%
3169.75%52.27%51.93%55.00%43.25%
3355.34%51.99%52.54%42.97%54.42%
3566.14%52.04%52.00%38.46%59.31%

The 11th ward is the Daley home ward, the 13th is Speaker Madigan's ward, the 14th is Ald. Burke's ward, the 25th is the home ward of then-Clinton campaign manager Patty Solis Doyle and the 33rd is Ald. Mell's ward.

If anything, the numbers look inconsistent. I don't see any obvious explanation for how these wards turned out.

Any theories?

5 comments:

Rich Miller 11:17 AM  

I think I'd like to see the voter file for this year before assuming anything for sure. Female vote statewide this year was 59 percent.

Hector Villagrana 1:48 PM  

It's also important to note that that "heavily Latino" refers to voting age population but because of the significant number of non-citizen and therefore non-eligible residents, the "heavily Latino" number of actual voters is lower.

Anonymous,  2:55 PM  

33
1
and 24
have significant yuppie

Resas peanut butter Johnny,  9:23 PM  

Co-Schemer A Victor Reyes and HDO got spanked and got a real 18th street ass whuppin.
They oppossed the only Hispanic elected countywide (why does HDO exist again) Commissioner Frank Avila.
They got spanked by Iris Martinez in their cynical move to elect Rich Bradley.
Mike Noonan was running Brookins campaign and lost bad.
Anita Alvarez won big and HDO was with Allen and Brookins playing all sides against the middle like usual.

Daley should eliminate HDO and the Feds should indict Co-Schemer A Victoria Reyes.

Anonymous,  7:01 PM  

Russ Stewart has a great article on the MWRD race and Hispanics.

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