Barack Obama is the only candidate in recent memory who was drafted to run and that's great for his odds
There have been a lot of campaigns to draft a candidate to run for the presidency. Colin Powell is the most vivid example. These are efforts that are driven by anyone else besides the candidate. Almost all of them are unsuccessful.
The hundreds of thousands of people who convinced Barack Obama to run for the presidency over the last year or so have pulled off the most successful draft campaign in recent memory.
What other presidential candidate includes the statement "I didn't expect to be here one year ago" as Barack did when he released his exploratory statement a month ago? No one! Who else wonders what role a presidential campaign might play in changing our political culture? Only a candidate who was drafted.
Usually it's the candidate's ambition and drive that is at the center of a presidential campaign -- or any other big campaign. But not this time.
I think it's extraordinary. I've never seen anyone else get drafted to run.
Don't get me wrong: at this point, I'm sure Senator Obama is fully invested in the campaign. And he was certainly the driving force behind all of his previous runs for office (as he disarmingly writes in his book). But a year ago -- and certainly two years ago when most candidates were already working on their campaigns (see Hillary or John Edwards or John McCain or Rudy Giuliani or just about every other candidate), I am absolutely convinced that Barack never seriously entertained the thought of running for president. And other people drafted him to do it.
Very, very cool. It means that he resonates with people. And when people look at him and see a President -- a level-headed, honest, progressive, pragmatic, candid, consensus-building President who appeals to our higher instincts -- it's something unique. That's more important to voters than having been working in Washington, D.C. for years and years. The skills he learned in the Illinois General Assembly to build a consensus for progressive public policies are among the most important any leader can employ. Especially after two terms of the rash, stubborn and arrogant approach from the Bush Administration, I sense voters are hungry for the type of consensus-building leadership that Barack brings. And that's the experience -- forged in Springfield -- that is far more important than having spent years hanging around in D.C.
This is going to be a great year.
[Cross-posted at djwinfo]
21 comments:
"voters are hungry for the type of consensus-building leadership that Barack brings"
Such a claim for the 4th most Partisan voter in the Senate. Since when is it "consensus" to vote along party lines, rather than weighing an issue?
I think voters like the thought that there might be some thoughtful non-partisan leadership. I don't know why voters would think that Obama is non-partisan given his partisan rhetoric and voting record.
JBP
Who drafted him? I like Obama but this seems all so media driven, fake and contrived. It disturbs me. How can he be the candidate of hope and change if he is the candidate of the establishment, money and the powers that be?
JBP -- his record in Springfield and in DC is clear. Senator Obama works for consensus solutions. But sometimes, legislators don't get that chance, and when it comes time for a vote, the Democrats usually have a better option for most people than the Republicans. Having a voting record like Joe Lieberman or Zell Miller doesn't make you a consensus-builder, it just makes you a conservative Democrat. And Abe, he's been drafted by hundreds of thousands of people who show up at his events and sign up at his website and demonstrate their support for him. It's palpable. But the establishment, to the extent there is one, is certainly not behind Barack. And if there is a monolithic establishment, they vote Republican nowadays.
Nonsense Dan,
A Partisan voting record is quantifiable. Obama is more partisan than Hillary Clinton (by a longshot) or Ted Kennedy. Two of the only times he stepped across party lines was to
1) Throw his support behind Republican Ted Stevens Bridge to Nowhere
2) Throw his support behind Republican Tom Coburns attempt to determine who was behind the Bridge to Nowhere.
The press has declined to report on Obamas voting record, his jet trips with ADM (coincident with his support for tariffs on Brazillian ethanol) support for the Stroger machine etc, preferring to campaign for the Senator by polishing his image via Eric Zorn and Lynn Sweet.
If the press would occasionally report the facts, rather than their constant PR for Obama, I wonder how many people would show up to cheer for the guy that adds 50 cents to each gallon of gas at the pump (see ethanol tariffs)?
JBP
Obama votes to confirm Gen Petraeus and won't defund Petraeus, but introduces a non-binding resolution of no confidenece in Petraeus's mission in Iraq.
Maybe that's how a Democrat builds unity in America.
Another word comes to my mind about the character behind that muddled behavior. Heroic Obama ain't.
A Partisan voting record is quantifiable. Obama is more partisan than Hillary Clinton (by a longshot) or Ted Kennedy.
And there is nothing wrong with that except that at the national level, these positions lose; and probably lose again in 2008.
So Obama avoids being paristan for the comforts of muddle headedness disguised as unifiying, and the media and bloggers dish up is he black enough or his middle name, or his school in Indonesia... anything but his quantifiable record: which supports losing ideas. Ideas Americans won't unify around.
JB: I don't think you're hearing Barack's message. If you start from the premise that only votes on the Senate floor are what determines partisanship, then just like most legislators, Obama will vote with his party most of the time. The votes to look at to show his sincere attempts to "build a working consensus" are things like the Coburn-Obama federal database and the Lugar-Obama initiative to protect us from old chemical and nuclear weapons. Voting with the Dems while playing defense against a GOP majority isn't relevant to a critique of Senator Obama's narrative or approach to governing. The ways of Washington have to change. And Bill, I'll agree that the non-binding resolution is a little wimpy, and that we ought to just cut the funds for the escalation in Iraq. However, Senator Obama's got the strongest bill out there to pull back the troops on a date certain. Hard to call that equivocal. Finally, I doubt that progressive positions lose at the national level as Bill suggests. I just think we need a better spokesperson than John Kerry. And we just found one today in Springfield.
What does Barack Obama say about the Hispanic Democratic Organization and Victor Reyes? Is Obama truly a different type of politician who believes in the audacity of hope and a new and reforma and different politics OR is he just a politician influenced by money and power? You, Dan, work for HDO as an operative and literally for Senator Sandoval (who does have a decent voting record on many issues). But certainly even Rahm Emmanuel gave HDO Federal PAC money back and has distanced and criticized Victor Reyes and HDO.
Barack Obama was close friends and close politically and had early money from Tony Resko. Certainly Tony Resko may be involved in illegality (he was indicted although not convicted) and he certainly was not just giving money because he wanted better government, it seems obvious he wanted access and to make money off of government and influence government in a tangibles (as in getting tangibles) and not public policy. The Obama-Resko connection at least implies
The same for Alexi Giannoulious, while Alexi may be a great politician as John F. Kennedy or Bobby Kennedy or Dan Hynes or Lisa Madgian BECAME, even though they had no real experience and limited substance--but people grow into their offices--at the same time did Obama support Alexi because he really was so great at least potentially OR was it because he had a personal relationship with the Broadway Bank (which while legal had a lot of legitimate questions about ethical practices and was known in the Greek immigrant community as a cut throat bank) and that the Giannulious family raised money for him. Barack Obama did a political payback, that is not bad, but that is not being a different politician or not being influenced by money or power.
Relatively minor issues. BUT, Obama is supported by the establishment eg the Media (a lot of the coverage is GENERATED by the media NOT covered), Big Business (ADM as an example but also big lawyers, big corporations as well as Hollywood who get special tax breaks and have questionable cultural contributions although it is certainly cool to hang out with Matt Damon, George Clooney, Will Smith--but that is not the underdog, outsider, who is in touch with the grass roots), and certainly big politicians in the Democratic Party at least in Illinois Mayor Richard M. Daley, Corporate insider William Daley, Senate President Emil Jones (should we start talking about Big budgets, pensions, State jobs, deficit, debt, pension debt, mediocre education, power and money, and throw in ComEd), and Obama's support of Mayor Daley (uncritically) and Todd Stroger--do not represent reform, not being with the establishment, grass roots (except maybe the machine telling the grass roots what to do).
Obama voted for partial birth abortion (No doubt that majority of people are pro-choice at least in Illinois but more people have problems with post birth infanticide, partial birth abortion, government funding of abortion, late term abortions that are elective and not "necessary", and government funding--there are levels of pro-choice that do not include making abortion legal for whatever reason and whatever stage of pregnancy and a respect for religious and spiritual traditions--beyond rhetoric--and those who oppose abortion in society being demonized--even Hilary Clinton has oppossed partial birth abortion and called for a reaching out to those who oppose abortion and a discussion to decrease abortion) Most polls, most discussion groups, and most legislative votes at any level have a strong consensus of oppossition to partial birth abortion---Obama voted for it--this is not consensus building, reaching across the isle, or finding middle ground.
Obama has not criticized at all TODD STROGER, or MAYOR DALEY despite Federal indictments, convictions, investigations, guilty pleas, media stories.
Barack Obama went to private schools his whole life including elite schools in Hawaii. Has Barack Obama reached across the isle or talked with people of faith to keep the Catholic schools in the African American (and Hispanic community) open while many are closing and overcrowding public schools? Has Barack Obama supported Sen Meeks when he wanted the funding shift? Or has he visited the Meeks private school so low income parents can have the same choice that he did with his wealthy white parents? Or keep the now closed St. Martin de Porres/Gregor Mendel, or the suffering Hales Franciscan, or Leo, or Providence St. Mel--some who served his senatorial district. Has Obama taken on the Teachers union, fought for Charter Schools or School Choice or at least tuition credit or tax breaks for private non governmental schools to give students the same choice and opportunities that he had?
How do your Senator Sandoval's Hispanic specifically Mexican consituency think about the Wall that Obama wanted to build on the border of Mexico or his support of the immigration bill? Maybe Obama did the right thing but maybe he also reached across the isle because of polls and lied to people on forms like Velazquez but you can talk to her.
What has Obama done for Hispanics?
Dan, How is Obama not with the establishment? Because he is not the Bush/Cheney War Industrial Project Establishment, but he is the AIPEC, Tribune, Sun Times, Emil Jones, Rich Daley, big business, anti-immigrant establishment? The Highland Park donors are the dispossed and politically unheard? The Bill Daley investment banking friends are not establishment? John Rogers and Ariel and the politically connected but underperforming funds are outsiders with grass roots understanding of urban issues?
Polls indicate more African Americans support Hilary than Obama nationwide. Does that mean Hilary is being drafted?
What about drafting of McCain, or Guliani or anyone else popular. Dean had millions going on his website also.
Edwards was drafted by Lawyers, and Bill Lipinski.
Obama has lived a lucky and charmed life. It was not a life of difficulty or challenge. It is sad he did not know his father but that is typical unfortunately. He was raised in affluence, with white parents, he had a Indonesian businessman stepfather and got to travel internationally, he went to elite Hawaiian private schools, had white parents and grandparents raise him in a safe, loving, wealthy, educated environment. There were no meals that he went without. He was not forced into a bad Chicago Public School. He did not walk dangerous Chicago streets being forced into gangs. He did not ever deal with Black people. He had support from wealthy Jewish donors very early on in, and Tony Resko early. He never ran a business. He never was in the military. His community organizing was with questionable political groups like UNO. He went to Harvard--clearly is bright and articulate--but so are many Ivy League graduates and he is not the only one and so is much of the Senate. This is not a unique pedigree (except maybe the partial Black blood although until recently NO Black culture), and not a compelling story like Democratic or Republic POW's or War Heros like McCain, or Hagel or even Kerry. No imprisonment, No loss of limb, No financial crisis, No personal business involvement or wealth creation.
What policies that Obama pushes (besides the wall with Mexico and the more Republican immigration controls) are not liberal? or not Democrat? or have consensus?
certainly not partial birth abortion
certainly not his justifiable state business interests
Why is Obama not with the establishment? Why does he give hope?
Do you think most low income African Americans have the same hope to be raised by White people and go to private schools in Hawaii and go to Harvard and never have to deal with racism of Whites in Chicago or dysfunctionality of Blacks? Can African American children REALLY identify with Obama? Obama reminds me of that movie CB something with Chris Rock where the gangsta rappers were really bougious Black wealthy kids trying to be gangsta.
Obama does not identify with Blacks and low income have no real identification or role model in him?
Obama travels by corporate jet, like Rich Daley and his Super Bowl and European trips. He gets PAC money.
He supports clearly corrupt incompetents like Todd Stroger.
Again, there are reasons for this and it does not make him bad, but it does not make him something great or different it makes him a politician and typical.
The media has been uncritical. There is no drafting of Obama. There may have been drafting (or maybe it was contrived) of Grant, Teddy Roosevelt, Eisenhower, Reagan--and this day of the internet Howard Dean, or Guiliani or McCain, and no doubt many thousands of people signed up on the internet and will be at a media hyped event with Matt Damon and George Clooney BUT to say there is massive grass roots support flies in the face of the polls and the support Hilary has. ALSO, Obama's stands are fairly typical, his political support and favors for political donors like Alexi Gianullious or Tony Resko are not illegal but again just politics as usual not helping that poor kid on the South Side that Obama says we are connected too. Because it is not the poor kid on the South Side who is going on the internet or drafting Obama or who is now going to Harvard because of the years he was in the State Senate or any bill that Obama supported in the US Senate--it is the money, establishment and media people who want to use the great image of Obama to exploit hope and give us politics as usual.
Dan,
Actually I do hear Obama's message and recognize it for the snake oil that it is. If it is not backed up by votes, then it remains just rhetoric.
I cannot imagine someone who was State Senator for some (most?) of the worst school districts in the State being described as "progressive" as his constituents schoolchildren are more likely to be shuttled to prison than to College.
I cannot imagine anyone supporting John Stroger over Forest Claypool being described as "progressive".
Ignore the media. Check the facts.
JBP
Ask Carmen Velazquez or numerous Latino organizations about his lies, change of positions and voting for a wall with Mexico.
He did not believe in his anti-immigrant vote, he believed in polls.
When asked about this he arrogantly said he has done more for Latinos than anyone. Like what? Like who?
Most Latinos work hard and it has nothing to do with Barack Obama. Barack Obama is arrogant, his answers are lies, and he has no compassion or connection with Latinos.
Dan,
All the candidates claimed they were drafted.
I do not know any significant bipartisan work he did.
I am tired of the Obamamania, it is hyped, it is overexaggerated.
It is akin to following OJ or the way the media followed the death
of Anna Nichole Smith. It is tabloid garbage and nonsense
No substance, no criticism, all hype, no reality
no reporting, all based on a snake oil race image
that is not real and will help no one
One thing I like Obama is that he was against the war and parts of the Patriot Act early. Now everyone is against the war but Kerry and Clinton did not start out that way. Obama is right on Iraq.
Obama does not appear as negative and cynical as many if not most politicians. I agree there is a tendency to Deify him and make him someone he is not, as he may well be a statesman and well intentioned but he is also a politician.
Besides Iraq, which is possibly the most important issue, I am probably more conservative than Barack Obama but I think his so called more restrictive immigration stance is right and prudent whatever his motivation(s) are.
I like his support for Faith Based Initiatives and his not demonizing people of faith even if some of it is rhetoric, Reagan proved that rhetoric and symbol is important.
I liken Obama to Reagan, and I liked Reagan too. Reagan did substantive things like the Kemp Roth tax cuts and oversaw economic growth, lower inflation, lower interest rates, and an end to communism. But primarily he gave people hope and did not depress them like the Carter malaise (a term he did not use despite mythology). His image and words were motivating and comforting and that is important. Bush II lost an opportunity as he also had the intangibles of leadership and a subjective sense of things. People liked and trusted Bush II for unknown reasons. Obama has the same thing. He might symbolize a racially healed America that has been divided. He might personify bi-cultural or diversity. Like Reagan he may be more optimistic or positive, a symbol a leader a comforting figure. Reagan also had some lack of substance and so does Obama. But Obama has that intangible and subjective something that is missing for most politicians and is certainly not resonating with people.
Big announcements are not always the best things, although with Obama it seems more real, the clearly phony Rod Blagojevich had over 10,000 people at his announcement for governor (and not President and it wasn't as promoted in the media as Obama) although most of those people were probably from Dick Mell, and Blagojevich probably let down most of those people. Obama, by virtue of being a US Senator and now Presidential candidate, merely through words and promotion can have a bully pulpit like Reagan and teach and preach like few politicians can.
Congratulations to Barack Obama and good luck. Thank you for helping us believe and hope again. I do not know if Obama will be the next President, but we could do worse, and him being in the race alone is a positive sign of debate, discourse and discussion and a different approach to politics.
Almost 20,000 people showed up in freezing weather to support Barack's campaign today. That's not media hype. That's real spontaneously-generated support. Tomorrow, I'm sure the UIC Pavilion will be full of people (including me) to support Barack. That's not media-driven hype. That's the independent judgment of thousands of people that Barack's call for consensus for progressive public policies is worth echoing and joining. I happen to think his vote on the border wall was wrong. And I think it's evident that he's been working hard on improving the lives of children in public schools. He was an early and successful advocate of expanding KidCare (before it became AllKids). He was an early and successful advocate of expanding the state's earned income tax credit which is the best anti-poverty program we've got. He was an early and successful advocate of a better criminal justice system, particularly as it relates to the death penalty. You know, good state legislators like Barack forge more than a dozen bills every year. With two years in the majority, he's got a great record as a State Senator that proves the case. That's one great thing about the General Assembly, particularly compared to Congress, where the pace can be glacial.
Obama voted to confirm Petreaus and introduced a non-binding vote of no confidence in Petreaus's mission.
It's a real profile in political cowardice.
Dan,
Look at the Public Schools in Obama's State Senate district, and tell me again what a great job he did. The best anti-poverty program we could get would be providing a minimal education to our youth, which Obama has steadfastly opposed in favor of pandering to the education monopoly.
The media has been hyping Obama ever since his 2004 Convention yarn. If I recall, the announcer/analysts at that time were openly cheering his speech. Three years of media hype gets him 20,000 on a cold day in Springfield, which is a pretty good showing, but has been a lot of work for Lynn Sweet, Eric Zorn, Time magazine etc to drum up support for their favored candidate.
JBP
Daniel Johnson Weinberger, How can you say that he was an advocate of reform of the criminal justice system when he has said nothing about police torture in Area 2 and Area 3 under detectives John Burge, Boffo, McDermott, Madigan, Byrne, Riley, McSweeney--most from the 19th ward--the ward and people who supported him against Bobby Rush the Black Panther informant Congressman. When Barack Obama was meeting with Richie Daley did he discuss Police torture? law suits? cover ups? racism?
Didn't Hilary Clinton do something more expansive (or try to do) 15 years earlier than KidCare or AllKids?
Obama wasn't even in the Senate for AllKids.
Wasn't the earned income tax credit in Illinois a Republican inspired idea? The State income tax is miniscule and the amount of the credit will not combat poverty.
Thousands of people showing up to an event hyped by the media for months, a false anticipation, media adulation, and promotion and planning is NOT a drafting. Howard Dean got big crowds. I am old enough to remember the big crowds for Mondale and Dukakis. Conservatives have big crowds as do abortion people, home school people--and I am not voting for them. The media started this, not the average people.
Also not a lot of minorities in Springfield in the footage I saw. Probably will be different at UIC but this is run by North Shore liberals, many of them hypocrites and exclude minorities--just look at the numbers.
I used to live in Obama's district. Kids in CPS have a lot of choice already. There should be more. I'm not convinced that religious schools should be part of the mix, but there's a lot more to getting better education than fully privatizing our schools. It's easy to say 'vouchers' and assume that will solve our problems. One reason why people are so excited about Obama (I think) is that a significant factor that drags down African-American academic achievement is some cultural hostility to academic achievement. That's something we all need to wrestle with, and Senator Obama is clearly in the best position to attack that cultural cancer. Eradicating that culture (I think he used that phrase a while back, come to think of it) is one of the best weapons in the fight against poverty. The EITC is a great tool, and $250 bucks to a struggling family (that's the maximum amount of the value of the state EITC) is very significant. Further, Senator Obama pushed hard successfully (with Senator Berman) to double the personal exemption from $1000 to $2000 which translates to an extra $60 in low-income tax relief. It helps, particularly for those making minimum wage. Finally, I understand Senator Obama believes in a separation of powers where the Senate allows the President wide latitude in selecting his team. I wouldn't call that political cowardice but a difference in views of the proper role of the legislative branch and the executive branch. Perhaps calling his vote "political cowardice" is the type of slash-and-burn politics that we ought to move beyond....OK, I've got to get to the rally.
I liken Obama to Reagan...
Reagan was a celebrity turned politician.
Obama is a politican turned celebrity.
There is a difference.
"It's easy to say 'vouchers' and assume that will solve our problems"
If it is so easy to say, then why does Obama refuse to even experiment with any break in the education monopoly?
The Senator, and hell, most politicians, are much more concerned about getting votes in primaries from teachers than in education.
How many years are we going to go on with this wretched system before a Democrat takes a stand in favor of education?
JBP
Is your boss Senator Sandoval going to support Barack Obama when he supports the immigration restrictions, the fortress military wall with Mexico, yet claims he has done more for Hispanics than anyone else?
Appealing to an anti-immigrant mentality does not appeal to our higher instincts but to economic insecurity and nativism based on popular appeal. Obama has no history with Hispanics.
Anyone who wants to exploit anti-immigrant fears and build a wall on the border is not someone I would vote for. I doubt if it is someone that Sandoval would vote for.
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