Predictions on the Million Dollar question

Here we go. The two-week break is over. The death march begins.

As I pounce into the key stretch of my first ever Springfield session, I realize that I am confused and need help. Big-picture help.

Basically, I’m wondering what the potential end-game scenarios are for this thing? And by ‘thing’ I mean the budget mêlée? And by ‘mêlée’ I mean the attempt at compromise. And by ‘compromise’ I mean the specific plan that appeases all the players who matter.

I suppose it all starts with the stage that G-Rod set. A quick, rough recap of the familiar place we are at now:

5 pieces:

-Tax Fairness: GRT (1.95% services, .85% goods,) 3% payroll

-Healthcare: about $4 billion to start

-Education: $1.5 billion now, $10 billion over 4 years

-Pensions: $26 billion total (10 from lottery, 16 from bonds)

-Property Tax Relief: $1 billion

That’s the easy part. So now what? Three big scenarios: This plan is adopted in its entirety, nothing happens/no new money, the plan is molded into something in the middle. Scenario three it is, right?

And this is where the confusion sets in, because I’ve not heard or read much more than this. Few people have been tossing out possible end-points. What is a feasible plan that could ultimately be the golden ticket? Ideas? Anyone?

Things I think we know:

-Blagojevich has said that education and healthcare are a package deal. The exact details aren’t inflexible, but the notion of money gains to both seems cemented.

-Blagojevich will reject any ‘tax increase,’ (err…besides the GRT)

-Jones supports the GRT, but has previously supported other revenue raising plans. His focus is education funding, but will probably agree to whatever brings in the most dough overall.

-Madigan is the swingman, but admits that a tax increase is necessary.

Hmmm…so where does that leave us? I’d be fascinated to hear some predictions. I’m certain that there are experts here at Illinoize who can piece together at least potential final agreements.

My gut right now: A GRT that is vastly scaled down, with a lower rate and more exemptions. Healthcare and education plans scaled back, but given attention. Lottery and bonds go through for pensions. Property relief scraped.

No one is talking about the big-picture. I need something to chew on.