Will the 18th District go Democratic like the 14th?

The answer: Maybe. But if it does, it won't be for the same reasons.

For those Peorians who don't follow state politics (thanks in no small part to the local media's general disinterest in the subject) were was some huge news Saturday. Democrat Bill Foster, a political unknown, defeated millionaire GOP foe Jim Oberweis in a special election to replace Dennis Hastert as Congressman from the 14th District.

Foster will serve the remainder of Hastert's term, and will have to face re-election in the November general election. His foe then will likely be Oberweis again. Which, in my opinion, is good news for Foster.

Consider the implications o the win. The far-west suburban district has been considered a Republican stronghold. But changing demographics and a general dissatisfaction with the GOP has tilted the district more Democratic.

There's speculation that this might mean trouble for another Congressional district that's traditionally been a sure win for the GOP -- the 18th District. After all, incumbent Congressman Ray LaHood is retiring.

My advice to the Dems is to not get cocky. A lot of factors played out in the 14th that don't affect the 18th.

First, I doubt that 18th's demographics have changed all that much since last election. Maybe there's some data bearing this out. There's been a lot of overall growth in that district as working class folks from Chicago are moving in. Not so much here in central Illinois.

Second, Aaron Schock is no Jim Oberweis. Love him or hate him, Schock has proven himself capable of winning elections. Oberweis has proven nothing, except that voters don't like him. The millionaire dairyman has been able to buy his way past the primaries a couple of times, but in the end has been rejected by voters four times in the last six years.

For reasons I have expressed before, I don't think Schock is as strong as his supporters think he is. And I also do not think opponent Colleen Callahan is a weak candidate in the least. And I agree that if Barack Obama heads the ticket, Callahan is is really good shape in November.

The importance of Foster's victory in the 14th is that it's red meat to the troops. The last Democrat who came close to winning was G. Douglas Stephens back when he first ran against Bob Michael. And he did it with the support of rank-and-file Democrats who felt tossed to the side of the road by the economy. They didn't get a lot of help from the national party, and I would advise them to not count on any help this time around, either.