IL GOP Congress Critters Run Scared

the reality is setting in. barack obama is going to be the democratic presidential nominee, and he will have *long coattails* here in illinois. how long? well, we read that county commission candidates are worried:

"I could lose to Barack Obama," the board member whispered.

and they would be several slots down on the ballot. who's next, after the presidential nominees? yep, those congressional races. and the collar counties -- those counties that surround cook -- will be the places where an excited democratic activist and voter base will be felt the most.

the gallup polls graphic of the voter segments that are excited by obama the most tells it all:



we are not just talking about boosting turnout here -- which will undoubtedly happen, as well. obama is demonstrating exceptional appeal to men, voters with post-graduate degrees, and people who have monthly incomes in excess of $5,000. people we used to call the republican base.

they will be voting for barack and then looking at that next race on their ballot. why not a democrat?

so you can understand why mark kirk went absolutely ballistic that dan seals is making news. now we can all understand why kirk was apoplectic at this. kirk has led a charmed existence since his election in 2000. no one has held him to account for his votes to invade iraq, to trust george bush, to carry bush's water in the suburbs. kirk has been a good little soldier these last few years, leaving no impact on congress (or the north shore) -- so he's probably confused that people want to hold him accountable.

dan seals has done just that. gas was, seals reminds us, a mere $1.85 a gallon when kirk went to congress. $1.85 before we invaded iraq (immorally for those of us -- like our soldiers -- who take the just war tradition seriously). $1.85 before george bush started shutting out the international community and building his coalition of the bribed and the insignificant (was micronesia really willing?). $1.85 before abu ghraib, before gitmo, before the dollar fell to it's lowest point in my memory.

but mark kirk doesn't want anyone to hold him accountable! kirk takes money from big oil, but points to his meaningless votes to "reduce gas prices." mark kirk thinks voters are stupid.

wait, wait, don't step on my line!

two years ago, kirk kept saying that seals didn't matter, that he didn't pose a real threat. kirk said this over and over, pointing to the fact that the dccc wasn't supporting seals as proof. but seals proved more of a threat than kirk wanted, in a year when the democratic ticket was headed up by one of the nation's most unpopular governor.

this year, seals and his fellow democratic congressional candidates won't have the drag of rod blagojevich pulling them down. instead, an appealing democratic ticket will be lead by our favorite son.

If Obama beats Hillary Clinton for the nomination, Illinois voters likely will turn out in bigger-than-usual numbers to support the home-state candidate, said Wayne Steger, associate professor of political science at DePaul University.

Although voters in many Chicago suburbs often split tickets on Election Day, the enthusiasm Obama has generated could trickle down to lower-level races, Steger said.

"The potential for impact is huge," he said.

And it's not just Democratic turnout that could be affected. If John McCain cedes Illinois and focuses on other states, as the GOP did in 2000 and 2004, Republican volunteer and fundraising efforts might dry up in some areas, said Kent Redfield, a political science professor at the University of Illinois' Springfield campus.

That could lead to lower Republican voter turnout on Election Day, Redfield said.

"It will be more difficult to generate Republican activity and excitement at the state legislative and local level," he said. "You have the potential in the fall for another 2006-style wipeout."

so don't blame mark kirk for acting childish. he's looking at dan seals and sees the face of his successor. poor kirk. he never did anything to anyone!

if mark kirk can't see the connection between high gas prices and our invasion of iraq, he's the only one. if kirk doesn't understand the connection between high gas prices and the failed bush economic policy, he doesn't deserve to be in washington. if kirk can't believe that he should be held responsible for his votes in support of george w. bush, then he's in the wrong job.

but mark kirk isn't the only person who's feeling the heat. jerry weller is basically fleeing the scene (and, perhaps, the country). jim oberweis is being criticized by his own republican congressional leadership as a "weak candidate." and judy biggert is having trouble supporting mom and our veterans.

biggert's missteps (although, understandable, she was following the republican congressional leadership) has given scott harper a big enough opportunity that you could drive a truck through it (if you could afford the gas!). harper is only the latest democratic congressional candidate in illinois to have been put on the dccc's support list.

harper has been putting together a serious campaign, one the likes that biggert hasn't seen since she defeated peter roskam. he is helped greatly by the enthusiasm for the democratic party that has sprouted in dupage county (once the center of republicanism in illinois). it is a fact that biggert has never seen a serious field effort run against her. it is likely that she will try to ignore harper for as long as possible -- just as kirk made every effort to ignore seals in 2006. that kind of "rose garden" strategy worked in the last election cycle, when blago tempered democratic enthusiasm of their ticket. this year, barack obama excites illinois democrats.

harper, too, is taking biggert to task for her votes supporting the oil companies. there seems to be a theme here. take your frustration for the pain at the pump out on your republican congressman or woman. how's that for a democratic theme? frustrated by high gas prices? vote democratic. it's gaining local traction. if the petulant response of mark kirk is any indication, it's got republicans running scared...