Demography and the future
Reid Wilson today in Real Clear Politics,
Update: More demographics in yesterday's Deaily Herald. I'm too tired to try and make sense of it tonight but throwing it out there for you.The ten fastest-shrinking districts, with percentage of population lost between 2000 and 2005:
1. Ohio 11 -- Jones (-9.1%)
2. Michigan 13 -- Kilpatrick (-7.9%)
3. Illinois 09 -- Schakowsky (-7.9%)
4. Pennsylvania 02 -- Fattah (-7.4%)
5. Pennsylvania 14 -- Doyle (-7.4%)
6. New York 28 -- Slaughter (-7.1%)
7. Michigan 14 -- Conyers (-6.7%)
8. Illinois 05 -- Emanuel (-5.1%)
9. California 08 -- Pelosi (-5.1%)
10. Indiana 07 -- Carson (-5.0%)
11 comments:
Where did they go?
Are they dead?
I will merely note that we heard of similar reputed declines in population throughout the City of Chicago in various Census Bureau estimates announced during the last decade. However, the official 2000 census data told a rather different story, a population increase within the City of Chicago and in these Congressional Districts.
crash-dev: Some are. Others moved out of the district to another district or out of the US. More are estimated to have done those 3 things than were born in the district, moved into the district from another district in the US, or moved from another country into the district.
fedup dem: You can wish in one hand, and poo in the other, and see which gets filled up first. The trend is real, I talk to private demographers who look at things the US Census doesn't, and they confirm what is happening in these areas. From a dem standpoint, you can take heart that some of the movers are moving into high growth districts like the 11th and 14th, turning them a shade bluer.
Here's an analysis I found two months ago. The first number for each district is the population relative to the US average population for a district in 2006. The second number is the district population in 2006 compared to the US average assuming a new apportionment. The last number is the 2006 population compared to the statewide 2006 average. With so many districts less than 1, it is quite likely the the state will lose a seat in the 2010 apportionment.
IL-1 0.94 0.95 0.95
IL-2 0.93 0.95 0.95
IL-3 0.95 0.96 0.96
IL-4 0.88 0.89 0.89
IL-5 0.97 0.98 0.98
IL-6 0.96 0.98 0.98
IL-7 0.91 0.93 0.93
IL-8 1.07 1.09 1.09
IL-9 0.93 0.94 0.94
IL-10 0.95 0.96 0.96
IL-11 1.09 1.10 1.10
IL-12 0.95 0.96 0.96
IL-13 1.14 1.16 1.16
IL-14 1.16 1.18 1.18
IL-15 0.96 0.98 0.98
IL-16 1.05 1.07 1.07
IL-17 0.92 0.94 0.94
IL-18 0.95 0.97 0.97
IL-19 0.97 0.99 0.99
Since Illinois will lose a seat in the next census, it's only fair Schakowksy's gets deleted. I'll take my chances with anyone else representing me--site unseen.
Schakowsky's district isn't disappearing - have you seen the development going on in Evanston and the North side of Chicago?
Anon 12:03-
Teardowns don't usually add population, at best they hold their own in the neighborhood. And if the area gentrifies, it's usually lower income larger families moving out, and higher income small families, couples and singles moving in. More development and money does not always = more people, and often means the opposite.
With the Democrats in charge of EVERYTHING in this state including the Supreme Court, the Democrats will not loose a seat in any redistricting. I will predict, there will no longer be any Republicans elected anywhere in this state for a generation. DuPage and other stronholds will be cut to pieces.
Anon 1203 was talking about massive new high-density construction, not replacing old homes with others. If the City of Chicago is smart, it will encourage similar development near transit.
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Wait till those folks in the Evanston Condo's read their property tax bill for a few years, coupled with botched public schools, and miserable City services..a good portion will learn leftist economics the hard way or move.
JBP
My point is that if someone moves from a Blue district to a Red district, do they vote differently?
Illinois results:
Voting for Bush - 2,346,608
Voting for Kerry - 2,891,989
So Kerry wins 55% of the vote, and Dems hold 52.5% of the congressional seats. Now you could say something about the senate...
About redistricting, an interesting diary by dreaminonempty argues that Republican redistricting efforts is now backfiring.
ETHS is failing wikipedia article?
New Trier is also in Cook County? There is also the terrible CTA which provides 1.5 million rides per day to area residents. Myself being one of them, when I'm not biking the 8 mile commute from the city to Evanston.
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