Claypool, Quigley and the "Tribune Primary"

Frequently in party politics, there is a primary within a primary -- a phenomenon that occurs when two or more candidates share the same ideological, geographic, or ethnic base. That's happening right now in the Illinois GOP, as a handful of conservatives try to out-flank each other on the right and emerge as the most credible conservative standard-bearer to take on Judy Baar Topinka. In the past, Chicago mayoral elections often had racial primaries within the Democratic primary, (Daley v. Byrne, Sawyer v. Evans, etc.)

Today in Cook County, a primary within the primary is being waged by Forrest Claypool and Mike Quigley, as they fight to emerge as the most viable "reform" candidate to defeat John Stroger for county board president. But their battle right now isn't so much about who can win the hearts and minds of independent Democrats on Chicago's north lakefront -- though that's part of it. Their real battle is over who can win the hearts and minds of the Chicago Tribune editorial board.

More than any other Chicago media outlet, the Tribune has taken a keen interest in the Cook County Board during the past four or five years. Their editorials regularly hammer Stroger and praise the board's anti-Stroger members. During the 2002 elections, they printed several editorials individually targeting pro-Stroger commissioners. When five incumbent board members lost re-election efforts that year, the Tribune editorial board gleefully and repeatedly declared victory -- even though only one of those contests (Claypool v. Ted Lechowicz,) was a true referendum on reform. The other four races were decided by local political rivalries, not the candidate's affiliation to John Stroger.

Expect more of the same from the Tribune over the next four months. The folks in the tower are determined to drive Stroger from office. They've been so far out on a limb in their criticism of him that another Stroger victory could almost be interpreted as a defeat of the Trib editorial board.

The folks at the Tribune know their prestige is on the line. And they can do the political math. They know Stroger can not lose as long as his opposition is divided. That is why some time soon, the Trib will begin beating the drum for either Quigley or Claypool to step aside and unite behind the other.

But who will they pick? Who will win the Tribune Primary? Quigley, the self proclaimed leader of the "revolution", who has been the editorial board's hero for years. Or Claypool, the relative newcomer with the more impressive resume. Odds are, the Tribune's candidate of choice will gain momentum, donations, and independent support and emerge as Stroger's main rival.

It seems the Trib's heart is with Quigley. He's quick with a pithy quote and has provided Trib reporters with plenty of juicy leaks. But the Tribsters know Quigley is abrasive and not well liked among his colleagues, and also not very good at raising money. So while their hearts might be with Quigley, their heads are probably with Claypool, who has more polish, more connections, and more money. Claypool's perceived electability might give him the edge in the "Tribune Primary."

Whether or not the Trib is successful in forcing one of the "reformers" out of the race will go a long way in determining whether Stroger wins. The betting here is both Claypool and Quigley will stay put and Stroger will get re-elected. In that case, the Trib will hope Claypool and Quigley can at least combine to deny Stroger a majority of the vote.

If that happens, the Trib can save face and brag that a majority of the voters see things their way. And best of all, they'll still have John Stroger to kick around.