Blagojevich Polling Analysis
(Cross-posted from IlliniPundit.com.)
The latest Survey USA polling for Illinois with approval/disapproval results for Governor Rod Blagojevich is out, and overall he's at 38 percent approval and 57 percent disapproval, which ain't good.
More significant, to me, is his 41 percent disapproval rating amongst Democrats, even after enacting a give-away-the-store health insurance program for every kid in the state, and refusing to cut any spending whatsoever over the past three years. Such a high disapproval rating among Democrats means that any Democratic Primary challenger will appear, in initial polling, to be a weak candidate, due to miniscule name recognition. But as the opposition becomes better known, their numbers will rise meteorically. The most obvious way for Blagojevich to stop them is to spend lots of money early to attack the opponent, before anyone takes them seriously. But doing so will also raise the opponents name recognition, which will in turn increase their numbers and their credibility. And such a strategy will also deplete Blagojevich's campaign account and negate his strongest advantage against the eventual GOP nominee. Strategically, if Eisendrath actually runs and secures some funding, Blagojevich is in a bit of pickle.
In addition, Blagojevich has been working furiously for months to correct his abysmal polling numbers, passing a budget with massive spending increases based on a pension raid, passing AllKids in a week, and doing everything in his power to promote his accomplishments. That they've not improved is indicative of a serious credibility problem - that voters and the media regard him and his accomplishments cynically, no matter how meritorious - that is going to be very, very hard to overcome.
(Hat tip: Rich Miller at Capitol Fax.)
11 comments:
About the same polling numbers as your Republican buddy President Bush.
Bush isn't running for re-election again, let alone in 12 months. Silly anon.
About the same polling numbers as your Republican buddy President Bush.
Actually, according to this, in 11/2003 (one year before his re-election), Bush had a 50/47 approval/disapproval rating, a number that remained largely unchanged through the 2004 election. Blagojevich is in much, much worse shape than Bush was at the same time in their respective election cycles.
But thanks for commenting!
The voters know that Blagojevich is a liar and a hypocrite. His nightmare/dream team of greedy Tony Resko and Chris Kelly, and underlings former press secretary whiz kid Brad Tusk and Californian Long Monk and Brian Daly will lead him to electoral destruction and maybe jail.
You guys rally do miss the Illinois Leader, don't you.
Actually, I was thrilled when the Leader shut down. I never cared for their brand of venom.
The numbers will improve once voters see what their choices are. Blagojevich has done many good things for this state, and once the campaign starts in earnest, and voters focus on the candidates and their positions on the issues, his numbers will rebound and he will be reelected.
Blago's problem is that many voters won't even consider his positions on the issues. He's a known quantity, and disliked.
Remember that nobody campaigns like Blagojevich. He connects with voters on a very real level. To the person who called him a hypocrite, you are wrong. But, one could criticize him for not getting around the state enough. He is genuine and people who meet him know that. He will be able to make up whatever ground he has lost. Republicans better start thinking of what thye stand for. Not being Blagojevich will not be enough to get int othe mansion.
True, and good points. The GOP candidate will need to campaign well, and have an agenda. But Blago's large policy snafus have provided an easy-to-read roadmap, and corruption will be the biggest issue regardless of agendas, and the best that Blagojevich can hope for on the corruption issue is a draw. Not being Blago will not be enough to win the election, but at this point it's enough to start out at least neck-and-neck in the bluest state in America. And that's remarkable on its own.
Passing All Kids in a week is part of the problem: you have a series of nagging corruption scandals percolating into people's minds for months. He needed to be fighting for All Kids for weeks, rather than pushing it through quickly. Nobody heard about it.
So he's a good campaigner. But, don't you get it, he has no substance and no soul. He robs one group after another to push through his policies and feels no shame. He is a creature of modern society, much like Paris Hilton (I bet she's smarter) - all flash,looks and talk but has nothing to back it up. He has good hair - so what? He's a good hand-shaker - so what? What has he done to change the cult of corruption in the state except to escalate it? He keeps proposing new "initiatives" which keep his name in the press but we are over our heads in debt in this state and he has no concrete way of paying for any of this, except maybe to contribute his war chest which we all know he will never do, if he doesn't spend it all on re-election. I guess when you're a "C" student in law school, the only way to make some real money is to run for the Statehouse, for Congress and then for governor and pray no one looks too deeply into your actions.
He had a golden opportunity to do some good in the world but his ego and his sychophants got in the way. What a waste.
Oops, that's "synchophants."
Have Rod McCullogh do a poll
The numbers will improve once voters see what their choices are.
When voters see what their choices are, many might elect to stay home. Crazy things sometimes happen in low turnout elections.
Not being Blagojevich will not be enough to get into the mansion.
In an election year where anti-incumbent fever may be combined with "party regular" disgust and apathy, I wouldn't bet the family farm on it.
I'm putting my prediction chit in for AllKids not happening on schedule. It's the bureaucratic equivalent of getting a truck to NOLA 3 days after Katrina - logistical nightmare.
Federal backing for this will take longer than 6-7 months. It will either come in in an abbreviated, 'beta' form while they work behind the scenes to get the rest of the details framed out, or be slightly posponed.
FWIW, for this thing to be a boon to RB's reelection, he should have been pushing it from day one.
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