The next governor may be a guy named Clayborne

Since local news organizations pretty much ignore state politics -- except trials and budget crises -- most Peorians probably have never heard of State Sen. James Clayborne. He's the Illinois Senate majority leader. And he's mulling over a run for governor.

Rich Miller predicts that Clayborn would make interesting candidate:

Sen. Clayborne is not the sort of Democrat that Chicago media types are accustomed to seeing. He’s a downstate attorney with a pretty solid pro-business voting record who is also regularly endorsed by organized labor.

He’s pro-gun, but he’s also pro-choice. He ran and lost for senate president last year, and the campaign exposed some rifts with his fellow black senators, partly over his strong rating from the National Rifle Association.

Gun owner rights are not usually very popular with Democratic primary voters, and particularly with Chicago blacks. Pro-gun southern white Glenn Poshard was able to win the Democratic nomination in 1998, although that issue was used against him in the fall by Republican George Ryan. Just about every likely Republican nominee strongly favors the National Rifle Association’s view of things, so that issue might not hurt Clayborne as much as it did Poshard if he manages to win the primary.

He would face the current holder of that office, Patrick Quinn, and Comptroller Dan Hynes.

How would Clayborne fair in Peoria in a primary? Quinn is liked as an honest guy. But he's been pretty ineffectual and voters really don't give a rat's ass about honesty, to be perfectly honest about it. Hynes is liked and respected. He picked up fans here due to his office's handing of the Springdale Cemetery mess, but that was many years ago. And Hynes' popularity didn't really help Allen Mayer, an attorney in Hynes' office, when Mayer ran for state house representative. He was beaten in the primary by Jehan Gordon.

While Peoria swings Democratic these days, it doesn't swing too far left. We sent Aaron Schock to Springfield twice, remember, before an Obama avalanche sent Gordan there to replace him. Remember, Schock positioned himself as a moderate then.

The pro gun thing will also really help Clayborne. So with the union support and so will the business support.

I predict Clayborne would do well in Peoria in the primary. If goes without saying that whoever wins the Democratic primary will win the governor's mansion. The Illinois GOP couldn't organize an ice cream social.

Cross posted to Peoria Pundit.