Horserace Emerging in 14th
Two months ago I rated Jim Oberweis’ odds of winning the Republican Primary in Illinois 14th Dist. at about 99 percent. A perennial conservative favorite, he now had the backing of much of the establishment – including the tacit support of the former Speaker of the House he sought to replace. His personal wealth could cover whatever holes were left.
Last month, after talking with a couple handfuls of party and elected officials in the district, I dropped those odds to about 85 percent. State Sen. Chris Lauzen was holding on to all his strength in the population-rich eastern end of the district and making surprising inroads in the western end where Oberweis is well-known and Lauzen almost unknown. In his last two statewide races Oberweis had a superior field operation. But Lauzen, who has had to win his senate seat repeatedly over establishment opposition, has one of the finest local grassroots organizations in the state. Clearly, Lauzen’s organization was outdistancing Oberweis in the early going. But money would weigh in soon enough, I thought.
This week it did. Now I am rating Oberweis as a 65% favorite – and one who can’t afford much more discouraging news. Not counting money the candidates have put in themselves, Lauzen raised almost twice ($211,000) what Oberweis did ($122,000) in this last quarter. A key element in having as powerful a figure as the former Speaker whispering in your ear is the fundraising prowess he brings to the table. I’m not sure whether these figures are an insult to Oberweis or to retiring Congressman Denny Hastert or to both. Even when you add in what the candidates put in themselves Lauzen still retains over a $100,000 advantage.
Each district has a floor level of money required to run a complete campaign. Reach that level and the impact of any more money put in is marginal. Generally I consider every dollar raised after the floor has been reached to have about 10 cents of impact compared to the dollars needed to reach the floor. I consider the floor in the 14th to be around $1.1 million. With $536,000 total raised, Lauzen is halfway there. He is already organizationally outdoing Oberweis: if he hits the floor mark, he robs Oberweis of much of the financial advantage. Each campaign eventually takes on a story line, too. If the Oberweis campaign does not act with a certain prudent boldness sometime soon the story line of this campaign will make Lauzen into “the little train that could” and the early advantage vanishes entirely.
Meantime on the Democratic side, Geneva businessman Bill Foster raised $409,000 including $200,000 of his own money. Democrats clearly believe that this seat could be in play, particularly if conservatives Oberweis and Lauzen so badly bruise each other in the primary that divisions carry over into the general election campaign.
Do not be surprised if the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) quietly gets into play sometime soon. If they do, it will be on behalf of Oberweis. It’s nothing personal; just follow the math. The NRCC was spread thin in 2006 and will be spread much thinner in 2008. They probably have twice as many seats they need to target as they have money to target them with. Regardless of how the Republican Primary turns out this seat is likely to become a Democratic target. While Lauzen may very well have the fundraising ability to make up for what he lacks in personal wealth to compete in the primary, he would assuredly need significant national help if the general was targeted by the Democrats. The decision-makers at the NRCC aren’t geniuses. But you don’t have to be a genius to figure out that, if Oberweis wins, money that would have to be used to prop up Lauzen in a general could be used elsewhere, relieving a little of the pressure on the very tight national NRCC budget.
It has been surprising how cautious and lackluster the Oberweis campaign has been to this point. Without a renewal of vigor, Oberweis risks repeating the results of his first statewide race when little-known, underfunded State Rep. Jim Durkin swept to victory in the U.S. Senate Primary. Anything other than a decisive win will almost certainly lead the Democrats to target the seat, making the cost of the general election campaign
11 comments:
The only evidence I have to run with is local community folks I talk too who will mention Lauzen has helped them with this or that. There is much goodwill towards him.
Oberweis is known as the guy who bashed immigrants. I know a few folks who would find that stance appealing but none of them live in the 14th.
I was looking at all the GOP candidate's webpages and Lauzen was the only one I thought talked about substantive local issues.
He discussed the additional developement to be generated by the prairie parkway. I live close to RT 47 and people would be up in arms against the parkway I think.
I thought Lauzen deserved some credit for talking about something significant to us out here instead of some of the other issues that seize headlines in a campaign.
All the Liberals I know out here were for Laesch. He's not precieved as the goof by the Dems I know who maybe are a little more liberal then the regular Dems you would find closer to Aurora and Elgin.
Obie has a real talent for blowing elections. Maybe after this we'll be done with him for good.
Lauzen has been all over the place on Prairie Parkway, he was noticeably silent while Hastert had his speakership (imagine that), calling the widening of RT 47 and Prairie Parkway both good projects. Then he went to a position where he thought 10% of the Prairie Parkway money should be spent on RT 47. Now he supports a plan to widen several roads including RT 47 (now that won't cause any sprawl, will it?) and to use all the money that Hastert obtained for Prairie Parkway for that purpose. Lauzen knows that Hastert has collected many favors on both sides of the aisle and that there is a snowball's chance in he** he will get that funding. After all, Tip O'Neill got $14 billion for the Big Dig project in Boston, and the Parkway is a mere $1 billion project. Former Speakers tend to get their way when push comes to shove, especially considering Lauzen's freshman status and lack of allies in Congress should he win.
Still, it's probably a good political position for now, since the anti-Parkway folks are highly emotional on the issue and the pro-Parkway folks are pretty tepid on it.
The Prairie Parkway project would probably be a lot more popular 20 years from now, when a widened RT 47 is clogged with cars, trucks, stoplights and strip malls. Just like I-355, IDOT should just buy the land, widen RT 47, and wait for the results.
I have met John Laesch and, yes, he is the goof that many people think he is.
Charlie, please keep shilling for Obie. It's a great help to Lauzen. It's good for Republicans to know which team they don't want to be on, so thanks!
Lauzen seems to be the only Republican candidate that won't play all the political games that are expected here in Illinois. I think he's respected because he tells you what he believes, and sticks to it, regardless of whether it wins political points. That, on top of actually showing he cares about his constituents is why he'll win.
Charlie, you have no idea what's going on the district, admit it.
Aren't you living in the 8th District anyway? How are sales going for you at Libertyville GMC?
I look forward to the D2's coming out so we can see where Chas gets his money...pathetic.
Lauzen's appeal goes far beyond his election district. And, that explains his successful fundraising. He represents a man who is willing to stand solid on that which he believes is good for the people and is ethical and honorable. That appeal carries well beyond his particular election district. Hence, Lauzen has campaign contributions being sent to him from Illinois voters that don't even reside in his election district.
Oberweis may receive the financial support of the NRC but Lauzen will receive the needed votes from the Illinois voters. Hmmm, which would I rather have, financial support or the votes necessary to get elected? It isn't a tough question to answer!
Lauzen is getting the publicity that is needed in the western section of his district via the coffee shop talk and by word-of-mouth from his supporters in the eastern segment of his district. They call friends, family members, and neighbors in the western section to tell them to cast their votes and support for Lauzen. It is extremely effective and doesn't cost Lauzen a dime.
I don't reside in Lauzen's district nor do I always agree with his stance on the issues. However, several of my Democrat friends have told me that they would even consider casting a vote for him if they resided in his district because they respect him as a man of conscience with a sense of integrity and a code of honor. That gives me a clue as to how Lauzen would do in a general election whether Lauzen had the NRC's support or not.
Oberweis is a nice guy but he has an extremely formidible opponent in Lauzen. Lauzen is "the little train that could." He is tireless when he believes in a cause. His family members (wife and sons)are also unbelievable in their support for Lauzen. Good luck Jim. You are going to need it.
Having followed Oberweis' campaigns very closely, I can't say that I agree with the comment that "In his last two statewide races Oberweis had a superior field operation". I'm also not sure about the logic behind the NRC support, though one can never tell until the dollars actually arrive.
I can't put my finger on it (and I have to state that I really like Oberweis), but Oberweis' campaigns are always a bit "odd" no matter who runs them. I don't think that this one's going to be any different unless someome's been able to identify exactly what the problem is.
...but Oberweis' campaigns are always a bit "odd" no matter who runs them.
My exact thought
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