Updated Numbers 11/3

Cross-posted from ICPR's blog, The Race is On:

Couple of new reports since yesterday and seeing as it's the final weekend, we thought we'd run a quick list of races. If totals are unchanged from yesterday, we wont' list them here; this is for new totals only. We're also listing some races we didn't list yesterday; there are a bunch of legislative races that aren't in the top five but are still getting a fair amount of media interest. For the first time, we're also posting numbers for the Cook County Board President's race.

Here're the updates, as of 2:30pm today. We'll mark candidates with new totals with an *asterix*.

Contested Appellate Court Races
(Fundraising totals from formation of the PAC through November 3 2:30pm)
3rd District Central IL = $484,000
Michael Powers* (R) $304,000
Vicki Wright (D) $180,000
5th District/ Southern IL = $3,199,000
Stephen McGlynn (R) $2,215,000
Bruce Stewart* (D) $984,000


In legislative races, the biggest gainers since yesterday are Michael Bond at $58K, Aaron Schock at $44K, and Kurt Granberg at $41K. Most of the big money at this point in the race comes in transfers from the legislative leaders.

Senate Races
(Cash on hand June 30 plus fundraising totals from July 1 through November 3 2:30pm)
22nd Senate - NW Suburbs = $1,061,000
Billie Roth (R) $475,000
Michael Noland (D) $577,000
31st Senate - N Suburbs = $788,000
Suzanne Simpson * (R) $412,000
Michael Bond * (D) $376,000
33rd Senate - NW Suburbs = $883,000
Cheryl Axley (R) $367,000
Dan Kotowski (D) $516,000
34th Senate - Rockford = $1,191,000
Dave Syverson * (R) $698,000
Dan Lewandowski * (D) $494,000
46th Senate - Central IL = $703,000
Ernie Russel * (R) $477,000
David Koehler (D) $225,000
49th Senate - Central IL = $1,646,000
Jeff Richey (R) $274,000
Deanna Demuzio * (D) $1,372,000
52nd Senate - Champaign/ Urbana = $1,893,000
Judith Myers * (R) $856,000
Michael Frerichs (D) $1,035,000
Joseph Parnarauskis (S) $1,000

House Races
(Cash on hand June 30 plus fundraising totals from July 1 through November 3 2:30pm)
44th House - W. Suburbs = $491,000
Terry Parke * (R) $386,000
Fred Crespo (D) $105,000
71st House - Quad Cities = $1,146,000
Steven Haring * (R) $387,000
Mike Boland * (D) $758,000
75th House - Eastern IL = $595,000
Jason Briscoe (R) $223,000
Careen Gordon (D) $372,000
92nd House - Peoria = $1,403,000
Aaron Schock * (R) $928,000
Bill Spears * (D) $475,000
101st House - Decatur = $966,000
Dick Cain * (R) $360,000
Robert Flider (D) $606,000
107th House - Centralia = $1,666,000
John Cavaletto * (R) $578,000
Kurt Granberg * (D) $1,087,000


Topinka reported $200K in transfers from the Party, while Blago reported $25K from the "Michael Bloomberg Org" of New York City. Rich Whitney isn't showing new income, but his running mate, Julie Samuels, activated her political committee yesterday.

Gubernatorial Candidates
(Cash on hand June 30 plus fundraising totals from July 1 through November 3, 2:30pm)
Governor = $22,569,000
Rod Blagojevich (D) $16,621,000
Judy Baar Topinka (R) $5,919,000
Rich Whitney (G) $29,000


Even on top of his apparently unsecured $500K loan, Todd Stroger continues to pull in large contributions, including $50K from DPI.

Cook County Board President
(Cash on hand June 30 plus fundraising totals from July 1 through November 3, 2:30pm)
Both Candidates = $2,829,000
Todd Stroger (D) $1,713,000
Tony Peraica (R) $1,116,000

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Blago on the Tube

Cross-posted from ICPR's blog, The Race is On:

Think you've seen a lot of TV ads lately for Gov. Blagojevich? You're not alone. Nielsen Media Research yesterday released a national survey that found that our governor has run more ads than most candidates for governor this year. He's #3 on the list, with 11,388 spots aired between August 1 and October 15, a time frame that ignores the 3,582 spots he ran last April, May, and June in Chicago, and any downstate Springtime ads that may have run. By contrast, Republican Topinka has run just 4,096 spots, according to Nielson, and none last Spring, according to our research.

As ICPR reported earlier, TV news stations have largely abdicated coverage of campaigns and elections, devoting less time to candidates than to intros and teasers in a typical half hour broadcast. TV ads fill that void, and Blagojevich has used his enormous campaign warchest to define the terms of the campaign with these spots.

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Downstate Judicial Races Leave Records in the Dust

Cross-posted from ICPR's blog, The Race is On:

Note - We put this release out earlier this morning, which is to say the numbers are a tad stale by now. Many of these candidates have since filed A1s, including Democratic Appellate Court candidate Bruce Stewart for $125K, Republican House candidate John Cavaletto for $20K, and Sen. Judy Myers and House candidate Dick Cain for $14K each. So it goes with moving targets! Check back to ilcampaign.org for regular updates.



Downstate Judicial Races Leave Records in the Dust
9 Legislative Contests Pass $1M Mark

With one weekend left in Campaign 2006, fundraising in judicial and legislative races is off the charts. Spending by two candidates battling to fill a vacancy on the 5th District Appellate Court in southern Illinois has obliterated the $567,000 record for General Election spending in an appellate court race in Illinois, and quite possibly the national record for appellate contests. The fight over one Circuit Court seat in the Metro East area also seems headed for record-breaking spending.

In addition, five Senate races and four House races have crossed the $1 million mark, and at least three others are poised to break that threshold. Large contributions from labor unions, especially teachers, and tort reform organizations are driving the totals. Previous election cycles have seen no more than 7 legislative races break the $1 million mark.

Among judicial races, two stand out for their fundraising: the 5th District Appellate race in southern Illinois and the race for the Kardis vacancy in Third Circuit, also in southern Illinois. Both look to be replays of the 2004 5th District Supreme Court race: a proxy war between tort reform advocates and trial lawyers. The race in this Appellate Court district, which stretches from the Metro East area to the Indiana border, already appears to have broken the record for spending in a state Appellate Court contest. Most of the money in the race is going for TV attack ads. Surveys taken right after the 2004 Supreme Court race in the same area found that judicial elections conducted this way do severe damage to popular confidence in the judiciary. (See ICPR’s website for the surveys)

Contested Appellate Court Races
(Fundraising totals from formation of the PAC through November 2 9am)
3rd District Central IL = $476,000
Michael Powers (R) $296,000
Vicki Wright (D) $180,000
5th District/ Southern IL = $3,063,000
Stephen McGlynn (R) $2,215,000
Bruce Stewart (D) $847,000

The Circuit Court race in Madison and Bond counties between Don Weber and David Hylla has surged past half a million and will likely break a record for Circuit Court races in Illinois. Circuit Court races rarely draw this kind of interest from financial donors. With no guarantee that the winner will even be assigned to hear personal injury cases, both candidates for the Kardis vacancy are drawing heavily from personal injury interests, plaintiffs for the Democrat and defendants for the Republican. The race for the Moran vacancy in the same Circuit is far more typical of Circuit Court races.


Third Circuit Court Races (Madison and Bond Counties)
(Fundraising totals from formation of the PAC through November 2 9am)
Kardis Vac / Madison & Bond Co. = $629,000
Don W. Weber (R) $233,000
David A. Hylla (D) $395,000
Moran Vac / Madison & Bond Co. = $210,000
James Hackett (R) $61,000
Barbara Crowder (D) $149,000


Some of the legislative races in the targeted districts are expected to break state records. What all of these expensive legislative races have in common is gigantic transfers from the legislative leaders. Indeed, the four legislative leaders have raised a combined $17.6 million for the General Election, and to date have transferred $11.2 million to aid their candidates. While these numbers are floating targets, ICPR estimates that Senate President Emil Jones retains the highest balance going into the final weekend, with $2.2 million in cash available; followed by Senate Republican Leader Frank Watson at $1.6 million; House Republican Leader Tom Cross at $1.4 million, and House Speaker and Democratic Party Chair Michael Madigan at $1 million.

Top Legislative Races
(Cash on hand June 30 plus fundraising totals from July 1 through November 2 9am)
52nd Senate - Champaign/ Urbana = $1,879,000
Judith Myers (R) $843,000
Michael Frerichs (D) $1,035,000
Joseph Parnarauskis (S) $1,000
49th Senate - Central IL = $1,629,000
Jeff Richey (R) $274,000
Deanna Demuzio (D) $1,355,000
34th Senate - Rockford = $1,155,000
Dave Syverson (R) $682,000
Dan Lewandowski (D) $473,000
42nd Senate - Aurora/Plainfield = $1,111,000
Terri Wintermute (R) $501,000
Linda Holmes (D) $610,000
22nd Senate - NW Suburbs = $1,039,000
Billie Roth (R) $475,000
Michael Noland (D) $564,000
107th House - Centralia = $1,605,000
John Cavaletto (R) $558,000
Kurt Granberg (D) $1,047,000
92nd House - Peoria = $1,356,000
Aaron Schock (R) $884,000
Bill Spears (D) $471,000
91st House - Peoria = $1,329,000
Daryl Dagit (R) $482,000
Mike Smith (D) $847,000
71st House - Quad Cities = $1,101,000
Steven Haring (R) $368,000
Mike Boland (D) $773,000
101st House - Decatur = $952,000
Dick Cain (R) $347,000
Robert Flider (D) $606,000

In contrast to the hyper-expensive, targeted contests, most legislative races throughout the state are dominated by a single candidate who will far outspend any opponent they may have. Almost half of all House races are uncontested, meaning that voters have no choice when they arrive at the polling booth. Many of those that are contested are not seriously challenged, as Illinois’ legislative map, drawn by a partisan Commission, discourages competition. The vast majority of incumbent legislators will be returned to office with little or no opposition.

In statewide races, Democrats continue their financial dominance. Even as one poll shows the gubernatorial race to be a dead heat, Gov. Rod Blagojevich enjoys a three-to-one fundraising advantage. Most of the money raised by statewide candidates has come in very large increments from donors who gave more than $10,000. Contributions of this size are banned in most other states and for all federal candidates. Because Illinois law places no restrictions on giving, some candidates have become reliant on very large donors.

Statewide Candidates
(Cash on hand June 30 plus fundraising totals from July 1 through November 2 9am)
Governor = $22,315,000
Rod Blagojevich (D) $16,572,000
Judy Baar Topinka (R) $5,714,000
Rich Whitney (G) $29,000
Atty General = $3,029,000
Lisa Madigan (D) $2,935,000
Stewart Umholtz (R) $94,000
David Black (G) No committee
Secy of State = $3,335,000
Jesse White (D) $2,414,000
Dan Rutherford (R) $920,000
Karen “Young” Peterson (G) No committee
Comptroller = $1,445,000
Dan Hynes (D) $1,265,000
Carole Pankau (R) $179,000
Alicia Snyder (G) No committee
Treasurer = $3,678,000
Alexi Giannoulias (D) $2,808,000
Christine Radogno (R) $869,000
Dan Rodriguez Schlorff (G) No committee


The Illinois Campaign for Political Reform (ICPR) is a non-profit, non-partisan public interest organization conducting research and advocating reforms to promote public participation in government, address the role of money in politics and encourage integrity, accountability and transparency in government. The late U.S. Sen. Paul Simon founded ICPR in 1997.

The Sunshine Project is based at the University of Illinois at Springfield and is funded by the Joyce Foundation. Its goal is to increase public awareness and understanding of the role of money in Illinois politics.

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Racist Bashing of Perry Moy

While McHenry County Board member Perry Moy was attacked obliquely in a Democratic Party door-to-door piece and newspaper insert I am analyzing in 3-part series entitled, “Picking on Perry,” a direct mail piece that arrived yesterday deserves the light of day now.

It is from Moy’s county board opponent James Kennedy, an 11-year trustee of Lake in the Hills and a policeman for 26 years (16 as a supervisor), according to the McHenry County Democratic Party web site. (Photo of Kennedy is from the same web site.)

Here’s what I know about Perry Moy. He and his mother immigrated to the United States from China. She bought a restaurant in McHenry. I asked for her vote in 1966 when I was running for County Treasurer. Perry developed an interest in public affairs and contributed amounts big enough to catch the attention of the Northwest Herald. The restaurant had apparently been quite successful.

In 1992 Perry strongly supported congressional candidate Don Manzullo, whose family also owned a restaurant. In 1994 Perry and his then-wife Mimi hosted soon-to-be House Speaker Newt Gingrich in a reception at their home.

At that time I discussed with Mimi how Perry ought to run for public office.

I disagreed.

Perry did run for county board in 2002 and won. He has sided with the Establishment on pretty much everything policy and political. Some criticize him for that.

But, he had the boldness to run against Jack Franks before the divorce proceedings were completed. The divorce publicity certainly did not enhance Perry’s prospects for victory.

That challenge probably earned him the honor of being a bull’s eye in this year’s campaign, however.

But, as I looked at Kennedy’s “hit” piece I thought back to Mimi’s comment about racial prejudice in McHenry County.

Look at Perry’s face. He’s frowning. He looks more threatening than the most evil Chinese villain you’ve ever seen on a “B” movie. Maybe it's the villain from the next installment of "24."

“Is this guy a member of the Chinese mafia?” casual voters might ask themselves.

The demonizing picture makes me think that the Democrats don’t have strong enough issues to take him down. They need to demonize him and are using his race to help do so.

Plain and simple, this is a hate campaign.

Under the unflattering photo are the words,

Reckless
Careless
Insulting

Now, those who know Perry know that he is usually smiling.

He’s the guy behind the counter of his Plum Garden booth throughout McHenry County.

The Democrats do attack his county board record with regard to the animal shelter purchase, but all the other policy attacks are on the county board in general, not on Perry.

Here’s what they say:

Perry Moy is the author of the shoddy report that led to the $3.5 million animal shelter fiasco in Crystal Lake. Taxpayers and neighbors of the proposed facility are outraged. Moy’s own Republican allies call his behavior “insulting.”

The only other policy attack is against a $146,000 loan from county-controlled economic development money that went belly up.

“I wasn’t even on the board when the loan was made,” Perry told me.

The third major item points to an IRS lien on the Moy residence because “$88,500” was not paid in a timely fashion. A tiny reproduction of the lien is reproduced on the address side of the mailing.

“The taxes are paid,” Perry told me.

Oh yes, this immigrant American is also criticized for urging “the Federal Government to loosen oversight of aliens coming into this country to make it easier for his restaurant to earn even more profits.”

I wonder if this pamphleteer is bold enough to say that Perry is not paying the minimum wage to his employees.

Perry’s reaction:

They are attacking me with blatant lies and they link me--which is very disturbing--to the darkest day that this country has ever faced and that’s 9-11. They tie in the immigration concerns we have as a nation and this hints of profiling and could be defined as a hate crime.

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John Laesch on Republican Torture Politics

Eating lunch today and saw Laesch's second commercial .

My first thought was if Republican Torture Politics are creating more terrorists, then it seems to me like an immediate pull out from Iraq is the order of the day.

Next was to wonder if Laesch, in his time as an Intelligence Officer, used intelligence obtained coercively? If he thought terrorists fighting outside the Geneva Concention's rules-of-war were entitled to give just the name, rank, and serial number required by the Convention?

Or would he have drawn a line further out on what could be coerced and how during interrogation? He must have some thoughts based from his MI training here.

Which took my mind to the image of Mr. Faleh in Laesch's ad. The hooded prisoner with fake electrodes attached to him. Back when a Mr. Qaissi was posing as Mr. Faleh, the NYT's told us the real prisoner had been released and disappeared,

Meanwhile, it is not clear what happened to the real hooded man, Mr. Faleh. An Army spokesman said he was released from American custody in January 2004. Tribal leaders, and the manager of a brick factory next to the address where prison records say he lived, said they had never heard the name. Besides, they said, detainees often make up identities when they are imprisoned. Mr. Qaissi's attorneys said they have not attempted to search for him.

Finally I recalled one of the most impressive things I saw working in the Army. It was the Spec 4 in charge of the GIs in my computer room leading them in training on Wednesday afternoons. Once they went through exercises on ethics using case-studies like: you're a sole American Military Advisor to Commandte X in the jungle. The Commandte proceeds to slice off the ear of a prisoner. What do you do? You have no authority here, your just an advisor, and a lonely one at that among the Commandte's men.

These guys would discuss the cases and it was impressive to see them work solutions to this stuff. Almost embarrassing really because they looked up to me as the college educated computer programmer.

When the Taguba report came out and I read this citation at the end, I knew the Army was still doing the training.

4. (U) The individual Soldiers and Sailors that we observed and believe should be favorably noted include:

a. (U) Master-at-Arms First Class William J. Kimbro, US Navy Dog Handler, knew his duties and refused to participate in improper interrogations despite significant pressure from the MI personnel at Abu Ghraib.

b. (U) SPC Joseph M. Darby, 372nd MP Company discovered evidence of abuse and turned it over to military law enforcement.

c. (U) 1LT David O. Sutton, 229th MP Company, took immediate action and stopped an abuse, then reported the incident to the chain of command.

These guys are real heros to me. They knew the Army rules. They knew the moral boundaries. They saw line crossed and they acted. They're pretty impressive Americans Soldiers.

That's where Laesch's images on Republican Torture Politics took me.

xp at Bill Baar's West Side

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Obama and Rezko

Kass and Brown today on Obama's connection with Rezko.

It's hard to understand why Obama thought this would go unnoticed.

The books, his wife's six figure job with U of C Hospitals, now this... tell me it ain't so, because it's looking like plain greed now.

Greed is something I understand, but I'm baffled Obama would have associated with Rezko; even just casual contact. The guy is political-poison and we've known it for years.

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Why the TV Attacks on Pelosi?

Wasting money or planting seeds?

That’s the question that ran through my mind as I watched the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee spend oodles of dollars bashing House Democratic Party Leader Nancy Pelosi.

Such few people in the 8th congressional district must know who Pelosi is.

So, why waste money on a “guilt by association” campaign against Melissa Bean, if most voters don’t even know who Pelosi is?

All I can come up with is that the national congressional GOP folks are using David McSweeney’s campaign to build negative name identification for Pelosi, so that, just in case she becomes House Speaker, they can do real damage in 2008 in their comeback attempt.

McHenry County Blog also discusses the Democrats' assault on the county board.

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Three public questions that I saw on a ballot...

1) For the health and saftey of children and the entire community, shall the state of Illinois enact a comprehensive ban on the manufacture, sale, delievery, and possession of military style assault weapons and .50 caliber rifles?

2) Shall Illinois enact legislation in 2007 to increase the minimum wage for Illinois workers from $6.50/hr to $7.50/hr?

3) Shall the United States Government immediately begin an orderly and rapid withdrawal of all its military personnel from Iraq, beginning with the National Guard and Reserves?

Interesting. Perhaps with the exception of the second one these quesitons are ideologically loaded.

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Mayor Daley to Kerry: Apologize

John Kerry won all fifty of Chicago's wards in the 2004 presidential election. The city's mayor, Richard M. Daley, is a Democrat. And he's another Democrat calling for Senator John Kerry to apologize to apologize for his "botched joke" comments.

From the Chicago "Free registration required" Tribune:

Mayor Richard Daley, whose son is a soldier, said today that Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) should say he is sorry for telling students that they will "get stuck in Iraq" if they don't make the most of their educational opportunities.

The remark was "uncalled for," Daley asserted. "I think he should apologize." Kerry suggested that "they are dumb and they are stupid and that is why they went into the military, and they are over in Iraq," the mayor said. "He owes them an apology (and) all their families."

If the comment was meant as a joke, it was "a sad joke," he said.

To comment on this post, please visit Marathon Pundit.

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Duckworth, Bean & AARP Dance the Social Security Two-Step

One of my favorite lines from post-Sorkin West Wing comes in an episode about the policy and politics surrounding Social Security. In a one-on-one conversation, Bartlet tells Toby:

“you can't save Social Security without cutting benefits or raising taxes, and this is the largest meeting in Washington where anyone's ever admitted it."

Though the show is fiction, that statement couldn’t be any truer. The only other option is to reform Social Security, and fundamentally change the structure of the program, as President Bush proposed doing last year.

If only today’s real Democrats were as honest in public as their fictional standard-bearers are in private. Tammy Duckworth is vehemently opposed to reforming or structuring the program; and, according to a recent press release, she is also opposed to raising taxes or cutting benefits. So how exactly does she plan to save it? According to her website, by “solving the nation’s exploding federal budget deficit.”

I’m sorry, but can someone please explain how that – as unquestionably worthy and necessary a step as that may be – will solve the fundamental problem facing Social Security, which is that more money will soon be going out than will be coming in to replace it. Yes, we must pay back the money borrowed from the Trust Fund. But that is an oversimplified, temporary solution that only delays the inevitable.

Given that, I’m inclined to say that, when the AARP asked in their candidate questionnaire "will you support a balanced Social Security plan to continue the program's guaranteed benefits for future generations?” Tammy Duckworth lied by answering yes. She doesn’t seem to support any such plan.

You would think that the AARP might be angered by a candidate answering yes and then renouncing any plan that resembles their own stated definition of “balanced” (which according to their website, includes “additional contributions from high income workers with modest adjustments in future benefits can maintain guaranteed Social Security benefits for future generations"). Instead, they have assisted Duckworth, and her 6th District counterpart, Rep. Melissa Bean, in backpedaling their responses - explaining how answering yes to that question doesn’t necessarily mean that they support raising taxes or reducing benefits.

With their own positions sufficiently mirky, both Duckworth and Bean, with the help of AARP are hoping that they can shout "we're for saving it and the Republicans are for dismantling it" loud and often enough to avoid giving the voters of the 6th and 8th District the straight answers they deserve before Election Day.

Cross Posted at Grand Old Partisanship

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Dennis Byrne - The Instincts of a Newsman and the Heart of a Voter

I miss the real newsmen of Chicago - Ray Coffey, Nick Von Hoffman, Jack Mabley and Bill Gleason. These were the reporters who had real instincts for where the story would surface.

Ray Coffey is the only journalist who reported from Khe Sahn who actually stayed at Khe Sahn and he is a member of the Khe Sahn Society. Ray went there because he knew something was up. Self effacing and professional - never a swash-buckling blow-hard, like Mike Royko, Ray Coffey broke the news and moved on; in fact, Ray Coffey once confronted Mr. Royko after being Hectored by the later day Hecht and Mr. Royko's bowels turned to water. True story - it's in a current Royko biography.

Another great one, Dennis Byrne still keeps his oars in the water over at the
Chicago Tribune . Today, Mr. Byrne breaks the story on the very long and obnoxious Campaigns by a group of political activists in Rahm Emanuel's stable. They have been applying their talents and treasure to various campaigns outside of Chicago. Mr. Byrne, great news work! Ray and the other giants are missed. Nice to still have you around.

Hey, Remember when Chicago had a newspaper?

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/chi-0610300224oct30,0,1845121.story?coll=chi-newsopinioncommentary-hed

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Regrets, I have a few.

You ever wonder if Sen. Meeks looks in the mirror or sees Whitney's numbers and thinks. "I could have pulled it off". I think he could have created a true three-way race.

OneMan

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