Go-Bama: Illinois History Repeats Itself In Iowa
Who would have thought that Barack Obama could defy pundits and not just beat, but bury, a slurry of challengers that included the anointed Machine Candidate and a multi-millionaire turned Economic Populist? And that he would do it by appealing to a broad coalition of voters young and old, black and white, liberal and conservative, driving record turn-out?
Flashback to 2004:
Barack Obama: 53%
Blair "$400 Haircut" Hull: 11%
Dan "The Machine" Hynes: 24%
Increased Democratic Turn-Out: 43%
Flash Forward to 2008:
Barack Obama: 38%
John Edwards: 30%
Hillary Clinton: 29%
Increased Democratic Turn-Out: 82%
Give John Edwards and Hillary Clinton credit: they're much better campaigners than Blair Hull or Dan Hynes. But as Hynes and Hull can tell you, the Obama Factor is impossible to counter. And unlike most black candidates, unlike most progressive candidates, unlike most outsiders, unlike most reformers, Obama can raise enough money to be competitive.
Occasionally he'll make a mistake, like Rezko, but rarely can his opponents capitalize on them. Most hope to put together a superior organization, but if anecdotal reports from Iowa are correct, Obama put together a much better organization than Clinton or Edwards.
Yesterday I predicted that Obama would sweep Iowa and New Hampshire, while Huckabee and McCain would split the doubleheader.
Polls showed Obama nipping at Clinton's heels in New Hampshire a week ago, and the bump from Iowa is sure to help. Clinton didn't help herself last night after the polls closed. Her concession speech appealed to traditional, hyper-partisan Democratic base voters, while Obama painted broad strokes that talked about bipartisanship and repeatedly thanked independents and moderates for their support.
Expect most independents in New Hampshire to skip the GOP primary and vote Democratic, resulting in record turn-out and handing Obama another solid victory and McCain a narrow one.
And don't be surprised if toss-out-the-mold conservative Mike Huckabee pulls a JACK! Ryan.
12 comments:
Who would have thought that Barack Obama could defy pundits and not just beat, but bury....
The same people who betted on Huckabee....
Mike Huckabee pulling a Jack Ryan? Let's be fair to Huckabee; for all his many shortcomings (which I won't waste time reciting here), he would be the last person I can imagine ever setting foot in one of those sex clubs that doomed Ryan.
"he'll make a mistake, like Rezko, but rarely can his opponents capitalize on them" just wait..one of these days someone in the national media is going to read the SunTimes, then all hell is going to break loose about Rezko, Blagojevich and Obama.
JBP
"But as Hynes and Hull can tell you, the Obama Factor is impossible to counter."
My goodness. What seeming adult people will say.
The issue that could surprise people about Barack Obama is his silence and lack of courage on torture of African American males in Chicago, Illinois (not Iraq, Guantanamo, Gitmo etc) in Area 2 and Area 3 in Chicago. This included electrocution of testicles. It is spreading among the African American community nationwide and Hilary may use it as an issue.
The movement of Barack Obama was initially more media driven and top down rather than bottom up (at least nationwide maybe less so in Illinois). The media crowned Obama after he won in 2004 and he was a relative unknown in most of the country. This was not a national grass roots movement.
What happened in 2004 was that one very rich man married bad and hit his wife's shins after she supposedly hit him. This allegation of spousal "abuse" destroyed Blair Hull. Than Jack Ryan and his movie star wife liked to have kinky sex and Jack was embarassed. Jack Ryan should of stayed in but unlike Rod Blagojevich lacked the intestinal fortitude. Maybe there was more to the Jack Ryan story but as it was reported it was not adultery nor illegal. Barack Obama admitted to smoking crack and smack but mostly marijuana and that did not hurt him. If I looked as good as Jack I would let you watch me with Geri Ryan in a Star Trek android suit.
So Barack Obama was the beneficiary of 2 rich men having bad wives or at least bad divorces.
He got lucky. It was a perfect storm. After he won in 2004, the media promoted Barack uncritically and almost ridicously.
After he won in 2004, the media promoted Barack uncritically and almost ridicously.
Save Allen Keyes, I don't think Obama's ever debated anyone on the right.
He's represented an ultra Liberal district in a Liberal state. When he spoke at Carl Davidson's anti war Demo he was speaking to them from the right.
I don't think a guy as nuanced as Obama is going to hold up well against a McCain or Giuliani. Put him against Huckabee a different story.
Huckabee showed debates can count for a lot, and I think it would have been helpful to mix up the Ds and Rs in some of these. Obama is going to need the experience.
like Rezko, but rarely can his opponents capitalize on them.
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Have they? Or other Harold Ford Jr. "wispers"
Iowa is for the amateurs.
What's with all of the Obama envy on this site? Barack is a fine person, bright and thoughtful, not nearly as partisan as many members of our GA. He only won because he has never run against anyone tough? He can't hold his own in a debate? He's too nuanced? He only wins because he's from a liberal district in a liberal state? Give me a break! Out of fairness to you all, I will listen to any of you who have ever been elected to...no, even ever been a major party nominee for, the Illinois GA, or the US Senate. The rest of you go measure against each other, not against Obama.
I do envy his book royalties...otherwise, he's a Chicago Pol...
He's going to prove a risky bet as candidate...I'd stick with HRC.
OK Steve,
The national media should continue to ignore the seamier side of Obama, then everything will be OK.
Why does one have to be a major party nominee to measure up against Obama? I can guarantee you that very few people that post here were able to get Tony Rezko to buy the lot next door. Yes, the average citizen most likely has less ethical baggage than our audacious favored son.
How about a tiny bit of scrutiny before annointing Obama?
JBP
A loan is an issue of Government paper which entails an obligation to pay interest amounting to a percentage of the total sum of the borrowed money. If a loan is at 5%, then in 20 years the Government would have unnecessarily paid out a sum equal to that of the loan in order to cover the percentage. In 40 years it will have paid twice; and in 60 thrice that amount, but the loan will still remain as an unpaid debt.
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