Is Cook County going Dem?

Cross posted from ICPR's blog, The Race is On:

Cook County has long been a Dem stronghold. While the statewide and national trends appear to be favoring Republicans, it also looks like the Dems are making a serious run at picking up more seats on the Cook County board.

Races with the most money are those with a Republican incumbent and a Dem (and sometimes Green) challenger. In the 17th, incumbent Liz Gorman faces Democrat Patrick Maher and Green Matthew Ogean. Gorman shows $151K for the general, while Maher reports $128K. Ogean has not formed a committee. Money isn't the only factor; this is the part of Cook County where Democrat Brendan Houlihan won the traditional Republican seat on the Board of Review four years ago. Maybe there's a broader shift going on here.

In the neighboring 16th, incumbent Republican Tony Peraica shows just $45K for the general. His Democratic challenger, McCook mayor Jeff Tobolski, shows $255K, a better than 5:1 advantage. As in the 17th, the Green candidate, Alejandro Reyes, has not yet formed a committee. Here, too, one should remember that money is only one resource in a campaign, and there may be more happening than the campaign finance reports indicate.

The biggest race, if you call it that, is in the 9th, where incumbent Republican Peter Silvestri shows $317K. His sole challenger, Democrat Cary Capparelli, reports $26K. Incumbents often do not spend all that they have available, so it's hard to say just yet whether this one will see significant spending.

Other notes on Cook races:

Edwin Reyes is the Democratic nominee for the 8th District seat on the Cook County Board. He's running unopposed. But he is still on the ballot, which makes it odd that he filed non-participation for the November general. Until he files, we won't know how much he's raised since July 1, or from whom. Just because he has no opponent doesn't mean the public has no right to know about his campaign finances.

There's a neat stair-step thing with fundraising in the race for Cook County Board President. Toni Preckwinkle raised about as much in small donations from individuals as Republican Roger Keats raised in total, and Keats, in turn, raised about as much from small individual donors as Green Tom Tresser raised in total. Preckwinkle reports $25K in non-itemized receipts on her pre-election report, all told, she shows $1M for the General Election.. Republican Roger Keats shows $4K in individual non-itemized giving, and $31K total, while Green Tom Tresser reports just $4K in total. Significant non-itemized contributions can sometimes be taken as an early sign of voter support, assuming that they come from voters in the district. On that basis, Republican Bill Brady's $204K in non-itemized individual contributions compares favorably with Democrat Pat Quinn's $40K in non-itemized individual contributions.

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GOPUSA ILLINOIS Daily Clips - October 19, 2010

Articles of interest to Illinois Republicans recently posted by ABC7, NBC5, CBS2, Chicago Tribune, Chicago Sun-Times, Crain's Chicago Business, Daily Herald, Suburban Chicago News, Suburban Life, Pioneer Local, Southtown Star, Rockford Register Star, Bloomington Pantagraph, Peoria Journal Star, Springfield State Journal Register, Belleville News Democrat, Southern Illinoisan, Illinois Review, Public Affairs, Champion News, Illinois Family Institute, Americans For Truth, Chicago Daily Observer, Tom Roeser, Capitol Fax, etc. Since January 1, 2005, GOPUSA ILLINOIS has brought 75,286 such articles and information on many upcoming events to its subscribers' attention each morning, free of charge, and without any advertising. To view the October 19, 2010 GOPUSA ILLINOIS Daily Clips, please visit www.gopillinois.com or www.gopusa.com/state-news/IL/. Thanks

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Voters oppose major cuts and tax increases

By Jamey Dunn

New poll numbers from the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute show Illinois voters generally don’t support tax increases or substantial cuts to the state budget.

More than half of those surveyed in the poll of 1,000 registered voters said the state should cut the budget, and more than a quarter said cuts and new revenue are needed. Only 9 percent said a tax increase was the answer to balancing the budget.

When asked about sources for more revenue, an income tax increase had 40 percent support, with 56 percent opposed. Support on the issue has grown by 9 percentage points from a poll by the institute last year.

Only 24 percent were in favor of increasing the state sales tax, while 45 percent supported extending the sales tax to services. Increased gambling in the state had 49.9 percent support.

While no revenue increase could garner majority support, participants were even less likely to support cuts to major areas of state spending. More than 80 percent were against cuts to services for residents with developmental or physical disabilities and K-12 education. More than 70 percent opposed cuts to police forces or corrections, and more than 60 percent did not back cuts to services for low-income residents. More than 50 percent of participants opposed cuts to higher education and spending on natural resources and conservation.

Public pension benefits garnered the lowest support, with only 47.3 percent opposed to cuts. However, cuts to pension benefits were not backed by a majority either — 45.5 percent were in favor, and 7.2 percent were undecided.

John Jackson, a visiting professor with the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute, said the results, coupled with studies such as a recent report from the Pew Center on the States, show that voters do not understand the budget, which leads to unrealistic expectations. He added politicians have not done enough to educate voters about budget realities. “People have been fed this line that there is ‘waste and fraud out there’ and that it will painlessly solve the problem,” he said.

Jackson said that both nationally and on the state level, politicians have listened to voters’ distaste for tax increases and cuts, and that has contributed to some dire budget troubles. “I think they’ve done what people want so long that we have wound up in this incredible morass that we’re in.”

He said voters dwell on cuts that may get them fired up but fail to do much to help the budget. He used the example of some voters arguing the legislature should cut its staff. “You could fire them all, and all the rest of us that work for the state, and the sum total would be about $3 billion.” Then Illinois would still be facing a $10 billion deficit with no state government left to sort it out.

However, Jackson said some symbolic “high profile sacrificial lamb” cuts, such as politicians’ salary and travel expenses, shouldn’t be ignored because they can help voters have more trust in their leaders. But he said voters need to know that “painless” cuts will not be enough.

Jackson said Quinn has claimed substantial budget cuts, but he needs to do more to illustrate the specifics. “It’s pretty muddy, even though he’s announced $3 billion [in cuts].”

Jackson is not singling out Quinn. He said no candidate running for state office has done a good job explaining the current budget crisis and laying out his or her plan for reform. “I think we’ve missed a good opportunity to have an enlightened conversation.”

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Quinn, Brady both out of step with voters on some social issues

By Jamey Dunn

Both Sen. Bill Brady and Gov. Pat Quinn hold positions on major social issues that do not align with the opinions of Illinois voters, according to one poll.

During last night’s debate at Elmhurst College, Brady said that as governor, he would lift the moratorium on the death penalty, which former Gov. George Ryan put in place in 2006 after DNA evidence exonerated prisoners on death row.

According to a recent poll of more than 750 likely voters by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute, residents intending to participate in the upcoming election agree with Brady. More than half of respondents, 56 percent, said Illinois should reinstate the death penalty. However, 36 percent said the moratorium should remain in place. The poll has a 3 percent margin of error.
“The people of Illinois have spoken, and they have said that this is the law of the land,” Brady said at the debate. He added that Illinois has the “utmost obligation to make sure that innocent people aren’t put to death.” But when Brady was asked how he would avoid such errors, he did not give any specifics.

Meanwhile Quinn — who does not want to abolish the death penalty but does want to keep the hold in place — said at the debate that he has Illinoisans' backing. “I think the people of Illinois really do support the moratorium and support me.”

He said more time is needed to see whether reforms that have been put in place are effective before the state starts using capital punishment again. “I think we should take a pause and make sure the reforms are working, so not one human being is wrongfully executed.”

“If you contrast the two governor candidates, Brady is on the side of public opinion on that one, and Quinn is on the side of public opinion when it comes to gay marriage and civil unions,” said John Jackson, a visiting professor with the public policy institute.

Brady’s stance on civil unions does not match up with poll numbers. Almost 68 percent of participants in the public policy institute poll supported some form of legal recognition from same-sex unions — with 33.6 percent supporting marriage, and 33.9 percent backing civil unions. About a quarter of respondents said there should be no legal recognition for same-sex couples.

But Brady said during the debate that he did not think he was out of step with Illinoisans when he backed a constitutional ban on civil unions. “My beliefs are what they are, and I believe a lot of people in Illinois respect those beliefs.” Brady then changed the subject to economic issues.

Jackson said Brady has “skillfully” avoided making social issues a substantial part of the campaign. “I agree that the budget is by far the bigger thing right now,” Jackson said. However, he said Brady has been “very, very vague” on his intentions regarding social issues if he is elected governor.

Respondents to the poll also weighed in on a national issue that has made recent news. More than 70 percent favored openly gay and lesbian soldiers serving in the U.S. military, while 19 percent were opposed. Last week, a federal judge ruled the Pentagon’s “Don’t Ask Don’t Tell” policy on gay and lesbians serving in the military unconstitutional and ordered that it should no longer be enforced.

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Cross posted from ICPR's blog, The Race is On:

Retention-seeking Supreme Court Justice Tom Kilbride and his opponents reported receiving tens of thousands of dollars over the last three days.

Prominent Kilbride opponent JUSTPAC, the committee of the Illinois Civil Justice League, reported receiving an additional $80,000 from the American Justice Partnership. (JUSTPAC reported receiving $100,000 from the Partnership, last week.) The Partnership was founded by the National Association of Manufacturers and does not disclose the source of its funds.

The Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law, which tracks campaign contributions nationally, has identified AJP as a group which traditionally advocates for Republican judges. In that sense, it's not surprising that the group would seek to kick Kilbride, who was elected in 2000 as a Democrat, off the state's high court.

And this isn't the AJP's first venture in Illinois judicial campaigns. In 2006, State Board of Elections data shows that AJP contributed $305,000 directly to Illinois Appellate Court Republican incumbent Steve McGlynn, as part of a campaign that established a new bar for appellate court campaign funding. In addition to the money AJP sent directly to the candidate, the group gave JUSTPAC $300,000 and to the Illinois Chamber of Commerce's PAC, $100,000.

Kilbride's political committee disclosed receiving $25,000 from the Illinois Labors' Legislative Committee, and $40,000 from the Illinois Political Action Committee for Education on Oct. 15. Another report shows the Illinois Federation of Teachers has supported the justice's retention bid with a $1,059 worth of campaign assistance.

The education community's significant involvement in a judicial election is pretty curious.

A more comprehensive picture of the pro- and anti-Kilbride groups' supporters is just around the corner. By midnight today, committees must complete their pre-election reports, which covers campaign activity since the last report July 1 and Oct. 3.

Please check back with the blog tomorrow for an updates on the Kilbride election and other top state campaigns.

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GOPUSA ILLINOIS Daily Clips - October 18, 2010

Articles of interest to Illinois Republicans recently posted by ABC7, NBC5, CBS2, Chicago Tribune, Chicago Sun-Times, Crain's Chicago Business, Daily Herald, Suburban Chicago News, Suburban Life, Pioneer Local, Southtown Star, Rockford Register Star, Bloomington Pantagraph, Peoria Journal Star, Springfield State Journal Register, Belleville News Democrat, Southern Illinoisan, Illinois Review, Public Affairs, Champion News, Illinois Family Institute, Americans For Truth, Chicago Daily Observer, Tom Roeser, Capitol Fax, etc. Since January 1, 2005, GOPUSA ILLINOIS has brought 75,220 such articles and information on many upcoming events to its subscribers' attention each morning, free of charge, and without any advertising. To view the October 18, 2010 GOPUSA ILLINOIS Daily Clips, please visit www.gopillinois.com or www.gopusa.com/state-news/IL/. Thanks

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GOPUSA ILLINOIS Daily Clips - October 17, 2010

Articles of interest to Illinois Republicans recently posted by ABC7, NBC5, CBS2, Chicago Tribune, Chicago Sun-Times, Crain's Chicago Business, Daily Herald, Suburban Chicago News, Suburban Life, Pioneer Local, Southtown Star, Rockford Register Star, Bloomington Pantagraph, Peoria Journal Star, Springfield State Journal Register, Belleville News Democrat, Southern Illinoisan, Illinois Review, Public Affairs, Champion News, Illinois Family Institute, Americans For Truth, Chicago Daily Observer, Tom Roeser, Capitol Fax, etc. Since January 1, 2005, GOPUSA ILLINOIS has brought 75,168 such articles and information on many upcoming events to its subscribers' attention each morning, free of charge, and without any advertising. To view the October 17, 2010 GOPUSA ILLINOIS Daily Clips, please visit www.gopillinois.com or www.gopusa.com/state-news/IL/. Thanks

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GOPUSA ILLINOIS Daily Clips - October 16, 2010

Articles of interest to Illinois Republicans recently posted by ABC7, NBC5, CBS2, Chicago Tribune, Chicago Sun-Times, Crain's Chicago Business, Daily Herald, Suburban Chicago News, Suburban Life, Pioneer Local, Southtown Star, Rockford Register Star, Bloomington Pantagraph, Peoria Journal Star, Springfield State Journal Register, Belleville News Democrat, Southern Illinoisan, Illinois Review, Public Affairs, Champion News, Illinois Family Institute, Americans For Truth, Chicago Daily Observer, Tom Roeser, Capitol Fax, etc. Since January 1, 2005, GOPUSA ILLINOIS has brought 75.105 such articles and information on many upcoming events to its subscribers' attention each morning, free of charge, and without any advertising. To view the October 16, 2010 GOPUSA ILLINOIS Daily Clips, please visit www.gopillinois.com or www.gopusa.com/state-news/IL/. Thanks

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Debate includes third-party candidate

By Jamey Dunn

During last night’s gubernatorial debate, Gov. Pat Quinn and Republican candidate for governor Sen. Bill Brady took shots at each other, while Green Party candidate Rich Whitney advocated for free higher education.

Much of what Quinn and Brady focused on was a rehash of their talking points from previous debates and campaign events.

Quinn criticized Brady for wanting to eliminate the Put Illinois to Work program. Meanwhile, Quinn said that he has “taken on the crisis of state government with a heart.”

Brady, who was leading the race in a recent poll, called the program a cynical election ploy and characterized the work it has created for residents as “temporary tax jobs.” He said as governor, he would grow the public sector by being “business friendly” and create more permanent jobs.

Whitney took a swipe at Brady’s economic plan calling it “warmed over Reaganomics.” He added: “It didn’t work then. It doesn’t work now.”

Whitney's plan for recovery involved free public higher education for all. Whitney said it would create jobs at universities, which are, “well-distributed geographically around the state.” Whitney said the money students and parents would save by not paying tuition could provide economic stimulus and not having to take out loans to get an education would help residents avoid debt.

Brady took the opportunity to again slam Quinn’s deal with American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, which guarantees no layoffs until 2012 in exchange for $50 million in savings. The union endorsed Quinn shortly before the deal was signed, and Brady accused Quinn of making a trade to get the organization’s support. “Gov. Quinn has an endorsement. The union has a deal that will tie the hands of the next governor.”

However Quinn played up the fact that the union plans to make cutbacks under a contract that has already been negotiated. “I’ve been able to get concession from the unions … under the existing union contracts.” He also touted cost-saving pension reforms that he signed last spring.

Quinn and Brady both focused on the economic state of the state. Quinn highlighted manufacturing jobs that are new to Illinois in recent months. However, Brady said Illinois’ unfriendly business policies are running jobs out of the state. “Gov. Quinn’s the job governor all right, but it just happens to be for Indiana, Missouri, Kentucky and other states.”

Whitney said that until state government can pay its bills and “perform its most basic functions,” Illinois does not look like a good bet to the business sector. “What business wants to come to or stay in a state whose public sector is falling apart, whose schools are falling apart — the cost of higher education going through the roof. … Where the infrastructure is falling apart where health care vendors aren’t being paid on time. Where people dependent on social services aren’t being paid on time. Social services are crumbling. What business wants to stay in a state like that?”

The debate, held on Southern Illinois University’s Carbondale campus, was Whitney’s chance for exposure before three upcoming debates in which he will likely not participate. Sponsors in those debates did not extend an invitation to the Green Party candidate, citing his low numbers in recent polls.

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Kilbride opponent JUSTPAC reports $165,000 in business, hospital group money

Cross posted from ICPR's blog, The Race is On:

Opponents of a retention-seeking Supreme Court justice from Rock Island have netted another $165,000, according to campaign reports filed this afternoon.

JUSTPAC, the political committee of the Illinois Civil Justice League, a pro-business/tort-reform organization, reported receiving $150,000 from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and another $15,000 from the Illinois Hospital Association.

JUSTPAC is working to oust Democrat Tom Kilbride, a Supreme Court Justice from the 3rd Judicial District who needs 60 percent of the vote in order to hold another a 10-year term.

The six-figure checks we’ve reported over the last two days suggests there’s going to be a lot of activity on both the pro- and anti-Kilbride sides in the final weeks before the election.

The Kilbride retention election has drawn the interest of business groups and medical malpractice reform interests in part because of the justice’s participation on a 4-2 majority decision that struck down laws establishing some caps on jury awards for victims.

Both the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Illinois Hospital Association were large contributors to 2004 Republican State Supreme Court candidate Lloyd Karmeier in what became the nation’s most expensive judicial contest in history. The Karmeier-Maag contest set a new record for the most expensive State Supreme Court campaign, as the two candidates, combined, raised more than $9.3 million.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce was noted as one of the nation’s “Super Spenders” in judicial campaigns in a report analyzing campaign money over the last 10 years from the Brennan Center for Justice, Justice At Stake, and the National Institute on Money in State Politics. The report noted the Chamber’s involvement in campaigns in Alabama, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Mississippi and West Virginia.

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AFSCME reports $650K, Stand for Children, Griffin Family Close Behind

Cross posted from ICPR's blog, The Race is On:

AFSCME filed their pre-election report, showing $640K in receipts since July 1. What won't get press is how much of that they gave to Gov. Quinn. So far? None. Quinn took flak for extending a union agreement at the same time (and with the same staff) that the union was considering its endorsement. Of course, there's still time for the money to flow.

The House Republicans sent $25K to Dwight Kay. And took in $10K from Dave Lenkowski. Lenkowski is running for state House against incumbent Democrat Sara Feigenholtz in a Chicago district. Lenkowski previously reported $25K from Ken Griffin and less than $3K in other fundraising.

Koch Industries gave the Manufacturers PAC $10K today, on top of $3K last July. Koch was the subject of a New Yorker profile a few weeks ago, and many Democratic groups have used the family as a counter-point to Republican jabs at George Soros.

ActBlue continues to report receipts of money from individuals, even though it's those individuals, and not ActBlue, who determine who gets the money. Money from ActBlue is often listed as if it's from ActBlue, not the actual donors.

Bill Brady reports $25K from J&J Ventures. The donation ties for largest from the Central Illinois food vending company; in April, they gave $25K to the Senate Democratic Victory Fund.

Ken and Anna Griffin showed up again yesterday with $50K each to Bill Brady. So far, they've given about $500K in the last two weeks. Stand for Children haven't appeared in a few days, but net of internal transfers and mistaken reports, they're at almost $600K this month. We'll compile a list of the top donors in the next coming days.

For people who complain that the candidates at the top of the ticket don’t' inspire much confidence, know that there is a political committee called Leadership 2011 in Illinois. They filed today that they will not be participating in the November election. More's the pity.

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Illinois Federation of Teachers puts $350,000 into Kilbride retention effort

Cross posted from ICPR's blog, The Race is On:

The Illinois Federation of Teachers has a keen interest in the retention campaign of Supreme Court Justice Tom Kilbride.

Just how keen, you might ask?

$350,000 keen.

Two campaign finance disclosure reports filed with the State Board of Elections (here and here) show that over the last two months, teacher’s union has given the Rock Island justice $350,000.

Kilbride was elected to the state’s high court from the 3rd Judicial District as a Democrat in 2000. Now at the end of his 10-year term, Kilbride must receive at least 60 percent of the vote in his district on this November’s ballot in a retention election in order to hold the office for another term.

The Illinois Federation of Teachers primarily supports Democratic candidates for General Assembly and statewide office, so it’s a little peculiar that the group is putting so much money – $350,000, its largest aggregate contribution to any one candidate this election cycle reported, by far – into a judicial campaign.

The IFT's endorsement note on Kilbride may shed some light on why the union is so involved in this election: the Supreme Court "makes critical decisions on matters that often directly impact IFT members and their families, including pension protections and the scheduled statewide legislative remap."

On Aug. 25, 2010, the Illinois Federation of Teachers transferred $100,000 to Kilbride’s committee for what the union noted was a fundraiser, according to IFT’s D-2 semi-annual report, which details contributions and expenditures between July 1 and Oct. 3.

A few weeks later, on Sept. 21, the IFT gave Kilbride $150,000, according to that same report.

And in the evening yesterday, Kilbride’s committee filed a notice that the justice received another $100,000 from the IFT. (That Kilbride contribution was disclosed the same day that a major opponent, the tort reform group JUSTPAC, reported receiving $100,000.)

Tort reform and business/medical interest groups have said they want to knock Kilbride off the bench in this election. Judicial observers have said the campaign has the potential to be one of the country’s most bitter and expensive judicial retention elections this year.

To learn more about judicial elections, retention elections and the Kilbride race, visit ICPR’s Retention Watch page.

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