The next governor may be a guy named Clayborne

Since local news organizations pretty much ignore state politics -- except trials and budget crises -- most Peorians probably have never heard of State Sen. James Clayborne. He's the Illinois Senate majority leader. And he's mulling over a run for governor.

Rich Miller predicts that Clayborn would make interesting candidate:

Sen. Clayborne is not the sort of Democrat that Chicago media types are accustomed to seeing. He’s a downstate attorney with a pretty solid pro-business voting record who is also regularly endorsed by organized labor.

He’s pro-gun, but he’s also pro-choice. He ran and lost for senate president last year, and the campaign exposed some rifts with his fellow black senators, partly over his strong rating from the National Rifle Association.

Gun owner rights are not usually very popular with Democratic primary voters, and particularly with Chicago blacks. Pro-gun southern white Glenn Poshard was able to win the Democratic nomination in 1998, although that issue was used against him in the fall by Republican George Ryan. Just about every likely Republican nominee strongly favors the National Rifle Association’s view of things, so that issue might not hurt Clayborne as much as it did Poshard if he manages to win the primary.

He would face the current holder of that office, Patrick Quinn, and Comptroller Dan Hynes.

How would Clayborne fair in Peoria in a primary? Quinn is liked as an honest guy. But he's been pretty ineffectual and voters really don't give a rat's ass about honesty, to be perfectly honest about it. Hynes is liked and respected. He picked up fans here due to his office's handing of the Springdale Cemetery mess, but that was many years ago. And Hynes' popularity didn't really help Allen Mayer, an attorney in Hynes' office, when Mayer ran for state house representative. He was beaten in the primary by Jehan Gordon.

While Peoria swings Democratic these days, it doesn't swing too far left. We sent Aaron Schock to Springfield twice, remember, before an Obama avalanche sent Gordan there to replace him. Remember, Schock positioned himself as a moderate then.

The pro gun thing will also really help Clayborne. So with the union support and so will the business support.

I predict Clayborne would do well in Peoria in the primary. If goes without saying that whoever wins the Democratic primary will win the governor's mansion. The Illinois GOP couldn't organize an ice cream social.

Cross posted to Peoria Pundit.

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Politics: Stunner in the 92nd

Talk about depressing.

I had been planning all day to go to the the John Morris victory party at the River Station. I like John (and I like the River Station) but the thought of spending the evening among people as they watch their favored candidate finish third in the three-person race just didn't appeal to me.

When I heard that Allen Mayer was holding his victory party at the Radison Hotel (a short jaunt by car from Randolph Avenue), I went over there to schmooze and watch people celebrate Allen Mayer's victory in the race for the Democratic nomination for the 92nd District seat in the State House of Representatives.

I why wouldn't I expect to see people celebrating? I thought at the beginning of the race for the his foe, Jehan Gordon, was the underdog. Mayer had it all over Jehan. He had the backing of powerful unions and the environment lobby, as well as a ton of local goodwill through his having served on the Peoria County board AND with being the staff attorney for Illinois Comptroller Dan Hynes. I found Gordon to be smart, likable, attractive, and because she was black, she would likely attract a sizable numbers of black voters to the polls. This was why Democratic party leaders recruited her to run back when they thought the opponent would be Aaron Schock.

Then stuff about Gordon started coming out. Turns out she never really completed her studies at the University of Illinois, contrary to the claim on some of her campaign materials. Then there was a dispute over whether or not she ever worked to encourage business to make use of the North American Free Trade Act. Late in her campaign, she held a press conference to reveal that she once was arrested for shoplifting. And in a development that was reported on C.J. Summer's site, but not in the mainstream media, she only paid the fines on the shoplifting charge seven years after the case was adjudicated ... three days before she told voters about the charges.

So, forgive me for thinking that Gordon had gone from being a slight underdog to a longshot.

There were plenty of clues that it wasn't quite going to play out that way. First, Mr. Mayer was late, and arrived with a nervous look on his face. He and his campaign people kept leaving to gather what info they could to piece together an accurate picture of the results beyond the rare updates the local media provided.

Second, it was not fun in that room. The very early results showed Gordon with a huge lead. We were assured that once votes started coming in from the county, the race would narrow. And it did. But shortly before 11 p.m., with just a few precincts left, the gap was too great to overcome. Mayer, informed of the numbers, walked over to his wife, took her aside and whispered in her ear. They left the room, and returned a few minutes later.

He stood at the podium and announced that he had called Jehan Gordon to congratulate her on her victory. He thanked his supporters, his wife (who seemed more upset that he was) and his young children, and urged everyone there to vote for Gordon and to work hard to support the entire Democratic ticket.

The final results? Jehan Gordon: 5,695; Allan Mayer: 5,332. That's a 363 vote difference.

The postmortem: I'm sure that experts wiser than I in matters political will have a more in-depth explanation. These are my immediate thoughts.

• Early voting was critical. A person close to the campaign told me that in the city of Peoria alone, some 500 early votes were cast for Gordon. The number was closer to 200 for Mayer. I have to think that some of those votes were cast before the revelations about the U of I degree and the shoplifting charge hit the paper, and that at least some of 500 votes would have gone to Mayer otherwise.


• Were campaign workers imported to get out the Gordon vote? Several people attending said that some 200 workers out of Chicago -- perhaps belonging to the Laborers International Union -- hit town today at the behest of Governor Rod Blagojevich.


• Voter turnout was huge this year. The Mayer camp believes that voting was heavy among black people who were eager to cast their ballots for Barack Obama. This tended to help Gordon.


• Mayer supporters were angry that Gordon ran ads in the final week decrying attacks on her. The Mayer's campaign had nothing to do with the revelations, they said. Indeed several people congratulated him after his concession speech for running a clean campaign that didn't resort to mud slinging. While there are those who will assume that the Mayer's camp tipped off the PJS, it's also true that not one single Mayer ad mentioned any of it.


• It's safe to assume that while Mayer didn't make hay of the degree controversy or the shoplifting conviction, it is a safe bet that House Minority Speaker Tom Cross will have no compunction against doing so on behalf of the Republican candidate.

Cross posted to Peoria Pundit.

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