Pundits overestimate Obama’s effect on a potential primary day special election in the 14th
The conventional wisdom seems to be that if Hastert retires early, and Blagojevich schedules the special election for February 5th, the presence of Obama on the primary ballot will increase turnout and give the Dem candidate in the 14th an advantage. I think that conclusion is wrong. Here’s why:
In the 2004 primary, voters in DeKalb, Kane and Kendall counties pulled Republican ballots by margins of 62%, 61% and 67%, respectively. And even in one of the worst Republican years since Watergate, the incumbent (who had just endured a good six months of negative media), still won those counties with margins of 58%, 59% and 66%, respectively. Bottom line: it’s still a solidly Republican district. Any increase in Democratic turnout will only, at best, affect the margins, not the outcome.
Also, let's not forget that Republicans in Illinois will have another incentive to come out on Feb 5th that will blunt the effects of any increase in Dem turnout in the 14th: they will have a competitive Presidential primary as well, which will give them something they haven’t had in a long time: a real chance to actually have some say in who becomes President.
7 comments:
You clearly don't know the pulse of this state politically. The sooner the GOP realizes they need to break free of their right wing base the better off they'll be in elections. Until that break takes place, good luck.
curt -
Are suggesting that the 14th Congressional District is representative of the entire state?
I don't think the right wing base has ever had much of a hold on the Illinois GOP.
The Illinois GOP is dealing with the legacies of Jim Thompson, Jim Edgar, George Ryan, Pate Phillips, not a hangover from any right wingers.
Last time I looked the 14th District was an almost perfectly proportional with the rest of the state in terms of ethnicity, and maybe income distribution.
I think one of the best describtions of it was found back in the Economist in 2003.
Helped by the state Republican Party's corruption and incompetence, the Democrats are plainly in full contention.
But if the Democratic Party as a whole is not necessarily doomed in suburban America, the San Francisco version of the party assuredly is. Democrats can survive in the land of mega malls only if they make their peace with mainstream America—if, that is, they adjust to the priorities of people who own their own homes and go to church on Sunday.
It is possible to imagine voters in districts such as Mr Hastert's returning a Democrat. But it is impossible to imagine them sending their sympathies to the French consulate during the recent row between America and France, or tolerating an invasion of beggars. Whether America becomes more Republican is debatable; there seems little doubt that it will become more conservative, and less cosmopolitan. In the long term that may have more profound implications for America's relations with the rest of the world than any little disagreement about Iraq.
"Last time I looked the 14th District was an almost perfectly proportional with the rest of the state in terms of ethnicity, and maybe income distribution"
What?!?!
Here's the 14th's 2000 census data:
White - 83%
Black - 4.65%
Hispanic - 18.4&
Avg. Income - $56k
Here's IL's data:
White - 67%
Black - 15%
Hispanic - 12.3%
Avg. Income - $32k
It's just not the monolith it looked from when we lived in Oak Park.
You can go from the river cities on the Fox accross to Dixon and Phrophetstown on the Rock and you get this Urban to Rural contrast I don't think you find in any other Illinos District.
In that sense it's representative of the whole state.
We're growing too. Maybe not as fast as we once were... in that sense I don't know how representative we are of Illinois.
The 11th has that same rural to urban contrast, and the suburban growth, too.
And the 14th district is changing. Yorkville and Montgomery have Democratic woman mayors, which would have been unthinkable in the 1970's. And that 18% Hispanic percentage is just gonna get bigger and bigger, and will be a force to be reckoned with if they vote as a bloc.
Can someone tell me what the right wing in this state has ever accomplished? I know you love to take credit for that disaster that was Peter Fitzgerald, but seriously, what have you ever done besides bitch and moan and blame others for your ills?
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