Saturday, February 18, 2006

Governor's Race Heats Up

It's been a tempestuous week for the Illinois Republican Party. Gubernatorial hopeful Ron Gidwitz ran an ad that was mildly critical of rival Judy Baar Topinka. This gave many in the media and some of the establishment a bad case of the vapors.

Thus far Topinka has run a very shrewd campaign. She entered the field late, hoping to have a very condensed election cycle in which there could be little debate over the issues. Except for a single debate, she has refused to appear in any public forum in which she cannot tightly control the agenda. Judging from her performance in that debate, that has been a wise choice. Thus far her strategy has been to capitalize on her superior name recognition after 12 years as treasurer and avoid discussing issues. That is a reasonable approach given that she is far to the left of her competitors and does not match up well with Republican voters. Up to this point the only announcement of substance I have heard from her is that she, alone among the Republican candidates, will confirm Rod Blagojevich's order revoking the license of any pharmacist who, out of conscience, does not stock the 'morning after' pill if elected. Her best hope is to keep Republican voters from knowing where she stands until after the primary is over. Topinka and her supporters in the party are busy invoking Ronald Reagan's 11th Commandment and calling for nothing that would create disunity. That is a tad disingenuous from a woman who has supported Democrats when she didn't like the Republican nominee, routinely calls conservatives nutjobs and crazies both publicly and privately, and didn't bother to attempt to conceal her contempt for people in Illinois who share the same ideology as George Bush even when she was party chairman.

I think Andy McKenna has done a pretty good job as party chairman. When he took over both the finances and the programs of the party were in utter shambles. Many county chairmen, when contacted by the state party, would listen politely and then ignore it. Some were not so polite, overtly telling operatives not to call them again. Under McKenna's leadership, the party has returned to a sound financial condition and relations with county chairmen have been dramatically improved. Exec. Dir. John Tsarpalis has real-world political experience, a welcome change from young operatives who had lots of attitude, but little experience and no judgment. He actually consults with county chairmen to vet the party's programs so they have some chance of actually working. While not without some misteps, McKenna has a good case to make for a second term as chairman. That being said, I think he is mistaken to suggest that any candidate who does not cooperate with Topinka's effort to avoid the issues and run out the clock is in violation of a code of ethics. The 11th Comandment and party unity have been a notably one-way street where Topinka is concerned.

Now I know that many in the media who normally wax enthusiastic about Democrats consider Topinka to be the sole hope for the Republican Party. But most of these are disaffected with the severe ethically-challenged nature of the Blagojevich administration. For them, Topinka is certainly the best hope for obtaining a Democrat approach to the issues without actually voting Democrat.

Unless something significant happens Topinka will likely be the nominee. Once she wins, neither Blagojevich nor fellow Democrats will refrain from letting Republican voters know how deeply at odds she is with them on most of the issues they care about. Blagojevich's hope is that, once he suppresses the Republican vote, it will be a matter of whether the majority of Democrats prefer someone with a D by their name or an R.

Don't misread this. I believe in party unity and I have worked for it. I don't believe in sitting out a general election just because my preferred candidate doesn't win. And in fact, if Bill Brady, Ron Gidwitz or Jim Oberweis win the nomination I will work hard on their behalf (the names are in alphabetical order, if you're looking for some significance). I would like to be able to do the same with Topinka. I actually did for a while. As some readers know, former state party co-chairman Stephen McGlynn is one of my closest friends. I know intimately how loyally he worked with her to foster party unity without compromising his ideological integrity. So imagine my surprise, while driving through Chicago a little over a year ago, to hear her describe him on the radio as just another one of the "crazies." I felt like a cheap, naieve tramp for having tried to foster unity under her leadership.

No doubt some commenters will tell me I should not criticize Topinka, as she is the likely nominee and I work in party politics. I've already been there, defending Topinka for the good of the party - only to be dismissed as one of the nutjobs when unity would have benefitted someone other than Topinka. If I believed there was a chance Topinka would not use a nomination and a governorship to try to destroy half the Republican Party, I would be the loyal soldier to her I will be if Gidwitz wins the nomination. He, too, disagrees with me on many social issues, but he treats unity as a two-way street.

16 comments:

Anonymous,  6:24 AM  

Charlie, I hope you're not right about Judy being the nominee. This state can't take another four years of Blagojivech. She won't bring the conservative's with her and Blagojivech has positioned himself to keep his moderate democrat vote. The party also can't take lack of unity for four more years without leadership.

Anonymous,  6:50 AM  

Charlie -

My gut refuses to believe that Topinka is going to be the canidate. The central committee whine over the Gidwitz ad has made a lot of party people very unhappy and they are not mad at Gidwitz. In fact, I know a couty chairperson that wasn't a Gidwitz supporter who called and asked the Gidwitz campaign for yard signs.

Bill Baar 8:25 AM  

I agree with anon 6:50. My gut tells me she won't be nominee either. There is too much resentment against anyone connected to the past.

Anonymous,  9:20 AM  

I think Charlie does great work, and his thoughts are usually dead on, but I'd like more analysis, less on how this whole thing affects him.

cheers

Anonymous,  9:35 AM  

where does judy stand on gun control.

Levois 10:26 AM  

I was certainly done with her thanks to her role in that whole Jack Ryan debacle. She wanted him gone.

Anonymous,  11:30 AM  

It doesn’t matter which candidate wins the Republican primary, there’s not one that can beat Rod.

However, I’ve said it before; I hope her faithful are correct. Judy would be an easy win for Rod. A, me instead of him, campaign isn’t going to get her very far. There’s not a whole lot that she can throw his way that he can’t throw back. A letter from Andy or Nancy isn’t going to help her with Rod.

Ron, Bill, and even Jimmy could campaign with a whole different message. They could bring up stuff that the anointed one can’t.

Just my opinion.

Anonymous,  1:22 PM  

Didn't Charlie predict that Oby would get over 40 percent a few weeks ago?

Anonymous,  3:11 PM  

Charlie, before you provide this "commentary, you should disclose every time who is paying you and who is not. How's the weather on Ice Cream Drive?

Am I the only one noticing that Oberweis and Brady can't get a lick of press these days thanks to Gidwitz, and Judy's moves to react? Don't you see that Judy is not worried about Gidwitz, and the days are flying by?

Charlie Johnston 3:35 PM  

I always disclose who's paying me. And no one involved in the governor's race is. Why don't you try criticizing the commentary instead of bringing up a smug ad hominem comment?

Anonymous,  3:52 PM  

Legitimate criticism? Why? The whole piece is a whining ad hominem on Topkina, with a little cover of commentary, throwing out come praise for McKenna and Tsarpalas before you given them the anti-Topinka knife. So get over yourself.

Anonymous,  4:30 PM  

Charlie & Judy I don't think so. The only thing Judy has is that because of polling the party can say she can beat Blagojivech. Which really isn't true. The truth is that the moderates just want a moderate candidate and they are using the party to get one. Nothing changes unless people see though the lie and change it.

steve schnorf 8:24 PM  

Some argue that Judy doesn't stand in the mainstream of the Republican voters of Illinois. I, for one, do not think that acceptance of the humanity of gay people, acceptance of the reality of abortion in this country and supporting restictions on it, and opposing gun control puts her outside the Republican mainstream. But I can assure you she doesn't stand outside the mainstream of the 50% of Illinois voters who consider themselves members of neither political party and who will decide this upcoming election like they have decided so many others. They will choose the one who seems most reasonable, least the demogague, most able to govern instead of fighting partisan ideological wars, and least wacky. They are looking for a Governor, not a theologian nor a nag.

Anonymous,  12:42 PM  

Steve, you need to change the party platform then. To do that win elections and change the delegates to people who represent what you say the republican party beleives so they can change the platform until then I don't think I agree with your thinking. As far as the state goes it took many years and a vote in the dead of night in a overwhelming democrat assembly and G. Ryan corruption to put Blago in office to get gay rights passed with alot of arm twisting so I don't even agree with you on gay rights or abortion. try again.

Anonymous,  10:15 PM  

Steve,

Hasn't the IL GOP suffered enough with "good enough" candidates who fail to energize the GOP base in Illinois? In case you haven't been watching, there is nothing in Judy Topinka's background that suggests she has a shred of a chance of solving this state's many problems. She has been in office for 25 years, and has done precious little to solve any problem of note. Her ideology is far out of touch with the mainstream when it isn't simply Judy Judy Judy.
I am sick and tired of liberals masquerading as Republicans. They are easily flushed out with the slightest mention of an issue. Since thay cannot address the issues with a majority opinion, they almost always resort to name-calling and temper tantrums.
As Newt Gingrich has ably demonstrated, the Center-Right holds the majority opinions on most major issues, not the liberals. When Republicans stick to issues, support the party platform, and offer voters a clear choice, they win.

Anonymous,  7:31 AM  

Anon 10:15 written much better then I.

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