Nursing Home Justice

Cross-posted from Illinois Deserves the Truth

With all of the recent talk around nursing homes in recent months (us included here, here)- much of it to do with the acquisition of Manor Care by the Carlyle Group and the quality of care loss that usually follows this type of business deal - it's a great thing to see that the Illinois House is looking at a bill (HB 5213) to help protect nursing home victims and hold nursing homes accountable for their wrongful actions.

In a nut shell, HB 5213 would require Illinois nursing homes to carry a minimum amount of liability insurance. Bruce Kohen, President of the Illinois Trial Lawyers Association, states that 20 percent of nursing homes go without any liability insurance at all. (Yikes, if I had to entrust the care of myself or a loved one to a nursing home, I would like to know if they carried liability insurance or not. I honestly assumed that they had to.) To add on to this shocking tidbit, as told in the NY Times article, many nursing homes add complex layers of corporate structure to insulate the money makers from being held accountable of wrongdoing. Because of this many victims have no way of getting redress from courts when they are injured.

Kudos to Representatives David E. Miller, Greg Harris and Mary E. Flowers for sponsoring this important legislation.

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County Insider John Daley Threatens Tony Peraica

Apparently Tony Peraica has a blip.tv account. And he uploaded the story about his Cook County Board meeting. I don't know when this story aired on CBS2Chicago, but it was a really interesting soundbite between Tony Peraica and his colleague John Daley. Daley in addition to being a Cook County Commissioner is also the 11th Ward Committeeman. So Peraica probably shouldn't take this too lightly. Although I have to admit if this was anywhere else in the nation Peraica could win it based off of this soundbite alone.

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An Insult to Drunken Sailors

As the state’s deficit continues to expand exponentially under Gov. Rod Blagojevich he now adds insult to injury. Wednesday he announced that the state will demolish Cole Hall at Northern Illinois University and replace it with a new building to be named Memorial Hall in honor of the students slain there in the shooting spree on Valentine’s Day this year. Though somewhat dated, nothing is reported to be wrong with Cole Hall other than that it was the site of a great tragedy.

The governor’s office did not initiate this proposal. It was developed by university officials and presented to him. It was like taking the opener to a can of tuna with a cat in the house. The governor gave it his immediate and full attention. He even took a little time off from proposing health care and transit plans he can’t pay for to glom onto this one. You have to give university officials some credit: they may not be particularly concerned with holding tuition costs down, but they sure know how to get the attention of their prime funding source. I wonder how enthused those officials would be for the plan if the money to pay for it had to be deducted from the other funds the state gives them each year. Oops, they might still be quite enthused – just pass it on in tuition increases. What a fitting way to memorialize the slain students; by making it more difficult for new students to afford college at all.

The site of tragedies are always sorrowfully evocative, even painfully so in the near aftermath. In each life there are places where a blow was suffered. We rarely visit them until time, that great palliative, has deadened the pain. But if we begin to go to the huge expense of tearing down sites of transient sorrow and rebuilding, we honor the dead by denying the living. It’s a bad plan and once begun, there will be no end of it.

Meantime the governor’s office has ceased to even bother to try to explain to the legislature how it is going to get the money to pay for Blagojevich’s grandiose schemes. The day before he announced that he would tear down the old and build the new at NIU, representatives of his office had no answer save, “Trust us,” when asked by a legislative committee how they were to get the money to pay for his health care expansion plan. This from a man who is making former Gov. George Ryan look like an archetype of fiscal fidelity.

Illinois does not pay Medicaid bills on time. There is sometimes a six month to a year lag in payments. Some pharmacies in the state ceased to accept Medicaid a few years ago, fearing that it was either that or go out of business. When a state pays its existing obligations by writing IOUs to medical professionals, throwing more IOUs around is not going to improve health care. It is going to reduce the number of medical professionals who will accept patients relying on the state to pay. Their refusal will not be from a lack of compassion, but from a need to survive.

Seniors in Chicago will soon be getting free rides on mass transit, thanks to the governor. And that plan guarantees that the transit funding crisis we dodged this year will be back in a few years. Call it “Son of Mass Transit Funding Crisis – Even Bigger and Scarier than before.”

We are routinely trying to sell the state’s assets; the Thompson Building, the toll roads, the lottery, not to pay for the governor’s plans, but to slow the growth of the exploding deficit. In his entire tenure Blagojevich has behaved like a reckless teenager given his parents’ credit card. Sooner or later, mom and dad will discover he has rung up some multiple of their annual income. We are all mom and dad here. If he keeps merrily charging away the time will come when we have to suffer truly draconian cuts just to pay for his public relations spending spree.

Won’t somebody cut up this governor’s credit card?

Cross-posted on Illinois Review

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The Choice in the 11th Could Boost All GOP Fortunes

In the classic movie, Jaws, while tossing chum out the back of a boat, Police Chief Brody catches his first sight of the monstrous size of the killer shark he and his two companions are hunting. Shrinking back in terror, he turns to Captain Quint and, in bewildered horror, says, “We’re going to need a bigger boat.” One suspects that New Lenox Mayor Tim Baldermann had much the same feeling as he realized just what was involved in running a competitive race for Congress these days.

After winning the Republican nomination to fill the open seat in Illinois 11th District, left by retiring Congressman Jerry Weller, Baldermann dropped out of the race last week. He cited the press of current obligations, including raising five children, serving as Mayor of New Lenox, and police chief of Chicago Ridge. Republican leaders are scrambling to come up with a replacement to face the popular and well-known Democrat, State Sen. Debbie Halvorson. National Democrats had already targeted the district as one of their best pick-up opportunities in the country. This blow is seen by many as emblematic of a coming Republican rout. Yet as disheartening as it seems at first glance it may actually enhance the chances of Republicans not only to hold the 11th, but in other Illinois districts as well.

By the account of all Republican leaders in the district, Baldermann is an estimable man of much accomplishment. The problem was he had little district-wide name recognition and less money going into a battle with a very well-known opponent. What he had going for him initially was that he was from Will County, which dominates the district. In the scramble now to replace him, residence in Will County is not going to be the prime asset it was earlier. Party leaders have to find someone who has the best means (name recognition, money, resume) of defending this seat. The truth is, privately Democrats had already counted this seat as won and Republicans were privately conceding it lost.

Some are touting State Rep. Rene Kozol as the best candidate. She is, after all, from Will County and has served 11 years in the state legislature. But again, she lacks the district-wide name recognition and the ability to put significant money of her own into the race. For Republicans this cycle it is optimal to have both – and critical to have at least one. Two other potential candidates have at least one of the components, though neither resides in Will County.

State Sen. Christine Radogno is fresh off a very credible run for State Treasurer in a very bad year. She and State Sen. Dan Rutherford (who ran for Secretary of State) were the two brightest spots for the GOP on the state ticket in that dismal cycle. She starts with great name recognition and a large fundraising base (besides her statewide run, her daughter served as scheduler to Weller). She is a moderate Republican who works to build bridges rather than trade insults with the conservative base of her party. In a normal year she would be the perfect candidate for this swing district. Despite long being held by Republicans, it is a swing district.
But this year, when Democrats are feeling their oats and all Illinois Republicans must prepare for what is likely to be a heavy Obama-surge of Democrats at the polls, sending a moderate Republican woman against a liberal Democratic woman may not be the best strategy. She is unlikely to pull enough moderate voters off the Democrat to tip the balance. She would need to excite the conservative Republican base to offset the advantages Halvorson starts with. Still, she starts with far more resources than Baldermann had.

Another potential candidate, though he does not live in the district, is State Sen. Chris Lauzen. He just came off the losing end of a bitter primary battle with Jim Oberweis for the Republican nomination to replace former Speaker of the House Denny Hastert in the 14th District. Calling it a primary battle doesn’t really do it justice. It was more akin to watching what would happen if you tossed two cats in a sack and tied it to a ceiling fan. Both men had been previously regarded as conservative champions. So the bitter infighting produced the ungainly spectacle of factions of the same faction bitterly denouncing each other, deeply dividing the base in the 14th District – and beyond. That bitterness was underscored by the initially ungracious behavior of Lauzen following his loss. So why even consider appointing a sore loser who helped divide the base? Practical politics, my friend.

Lauzen starts off with strong name recognition, even if it is not all positive, because of that high-profile race. He also carries some residual recognition from his race for Comptroller 10 years ago. From that race and the near proximity of his senate district to the 11th Lauzen would not start out a stranger to the district. He has some of his own money; not a lot, but some. He is a bona fide hero to most of the conservative base of the party. He would energize that base in the 11th District. In a cycle where moderates are most likely to go Democrat, that is an important asset. Once energized, he would deploy that base well, as he is one of the most gifted grass-roots politicians in the state.

Perhaps most importantly, naming Lauzen would give a real chance to heal the deep rifts in the Republican Party in the 14th and the 11th, allowing conservative partisans to quit fighting each other and get to the business of energetically fighting Democrats. The 14th is not the two-to-one bastion of Republicans that the media often make it out to be. But it is a good 58% baseline Republican District. The fallout from that ugly primary has made it suddenly competitive. Appointing Lauzen to the Republican nomination in the 11th could both make the 11th genuinely competitive and simultaneously deprive Democrats of a plausible chance for a ‘bonus’ pickup in the 14th. That scenario only holds if both Lauzen and Oberweis make a genuine and compelling show of unity with each other.

But either Lauzen or Radogno would make the 11th genuinely competitive, forcing Democrats to deploy resources and time there. That takes some pressure off the 14th and off of Congressman Mark Kirk’s seat in the 10th District. Democrats have been salivating; hoping things might get so bad they could even make a serious go again at Congressman Peter Roskam in the 6th District. As things stood a week ago, Democrats thought they were very likely to pick up two seats in Illinois; with a little break they could pick up three; and with strong prevailing winds, perhaps even pull off four.

If Republicans are shrewd in their selection in the 11th, they could utterly reverse those odds, taking Roskam’s seat out of serious Democratic calculations altogether. Both the 11th and the 10th become races on their own merits rather than potential casualties in a Democratic blitzkrieg and the 14th becomes much safer as a likely Republican hold.

In this case, Republican leaders in the 11th District are in the very unusual position of playing a huge role not only in who their candidate will be, but in how good Republican prospects in much of the rest of the state.

Cross-posted at Illinois Review

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Tenure Tit-for-Tat

CapitolFax reports on the back-and-forth between reporter Scott Reeder and the Illinois Federation of Teachers today. I think its useful to cut through all of the tit-for-tat about bias and get down to the central facts and arguments being advanced by Reeder.

On that point, I've got to agree with Comerford on what seems to be the central fact of Reeder's story, as opposed to all of the he said, she said stuff.

If Reeder is only counting the number of firings that are appealed, but is reporting that as the number of firings, he's gotten the central fact in his story wrong.
Reeder could set the record straight be redoing his census and asking the school districts how many tenured teachers they fired who did not appeal, and that seems to be in order.

However, I have to say that even then Reeder's story misses the big picture. Whether tenured teachers in-and-of themselves are getting fired proves nothing. In fact, it might prove that waiting four years to give teacher tenure weeds out teachers who aren't up to the task. In order to complete the picture, Reeder should report how many non-tenured teachers leave their school before reaching tenure.

Another big hole in Reeder's argument as I see it is the underlying assumption that tenure -- and tenure alone -- is the problem. After all, the University of Illinois, University of Chicago, DePaul, Northwestern ALL have teacher tenure, and they're considered flagship educational institutions. Even though we're talking about higher education here, I still think its highly relevant, and the bias here in Reeder's reporting is that he focuses in only on evidence that supports his hypothesis and ignores evidence that completely discounts it.

In fact, "tenure", whether de jure or de facto, is all pervasive in American society. There was plenty of incompetence in Enron, but how many people were fired there? Every week we hear of lead toys finding their way onto Wal-Mart's shelves, but I certainly haven't heard of any firings. One could even argue that incumbent elected officials are the beneficiaries of tenure. If tenure is broken, all of America is broken, and I think you can have a great discussion on that issue. However, it does beg the question of why Reeder is so narrowly focused on teachers.

Finally, and perhaps this is the most important point. Even if you think that the tenure system is broken and is protecting thousands of bad teachers who need to be fired, Reeder never answers the "What then?" question. Illinois, like every other state in the nation, is facing a labor shortage when it comes to hiring teachers, just to fill the vacancies created by retirement and teachers moving to other professions or other states. If we fire thousands of teachers, who does Reeder propose we replace them with? Will he drop out of journalism, invest his time and money in getting his certification so that he can dedicate himself to teaching the hardest-to-reach kids in our urban centers and struggling rural communities? The question I always ask of those who are so quick to criticize teachers is "Why are you standing here on the sidelines throwing stones instead of putting yourself in the game?" I still haven't gotten a straight answer.

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Public Official A

Crystal Laker Allan Showalter's Heck of a Guy blog has put the Tony Rezko trial in literary perspective. It's so good, I asked his permission to share it with you.

Here's the beginning.

Public Official A - A Comic Morality Play In The Illinois Style

Filed under: Local | By DrHGuy | February 28, 2008 at 8:31 am

Judge reveals Blagojevich is ‘Public Official A’
Rezko allegedly sought donations for governor

-Headline from February 26, 2008 Chicago Tribune

I guarantee you that the rest is worth reading.

Posted first on McHenry County Blog.

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Great Leaps

Cross posted from ICPR's blog, The Race is On:

Tomorrow is February 29th, that rare occasion when the shortest month of the year gets a little bit longer. Most of the time, Leap Years coincide with presidential elections and the Summer Olympics. They don't come every four years, exactly; centuries are not Leap Years, unless they're also divisible by 400, as 2000 was.

Even more rare than the Leap Year is the Bill With 47 Sponsors But No Hearing. HB 1 has been sitting in the Senate Rules Committee since last April. All but a dozen of the 59 members of the Senate have signed on as sponsors. That's more than enough to pass the bill; more than enough to override a veto; even enough to suspend the rules and move the bill directly to the floor. And yet, the bill sits in Rules, unheard, unvoted upon.

The Daily Herald ran a story talking with "Leapsters" or "Leaplings" about what it's like to have February 29th as their birthday. We feel like the 47 sponsors of HB 1 deserve some sympathy, too, for their unusual circumstance. So tomorrow, why not call them up and say you feel for them. Sometimes, it's lonely trying to do the right thing.

Also, according to some, February 29th doubles as Sadie Hawkins Day. On behalf of HB 1, why not take the initiative and ask the Senate President to dance?

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OUCH!!!

Heh, the last line in this post from Newsalert, "The GOP really doesn't exist in Cook County." Surely that stings to somebody doesn't it? This could beg that question, Why did Republicans abdicate Cook County to the Democrats?

Anyway the gist of the post shows the legal problems of the soon to be outgoing Cook County GOP Chair Liz Gorman and her husband. And she herself is looking for a "puppet" so she can maintain her influence. Yeah I suppose there really isn't a GOP in Cook.

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A Look at the Latino Vote in the Illinois Presidential Primary

In the immediate aftermath of the February 5th primary some in the press noticed that Hillary Clinton ran particularly strong in some of the wards that had strong ward organizations with politically powerful leaders who had pledged to support Obama. This was explained due to the strength of the Clinton campaign among women and Latinos, a notion supported by this vote total by congressional district breakdown that shows that Clinton ran strong in Illinois' 4th congressional district which is represented by Congressman Luis Gutierrez, a heavily Latino district.

I decided to try and gather some data to see if that proved out. Below is a table that shows all of the wards that had at least 30% Hispanic according to the 2000 census (data that is 8 years old). Additionally, I decided to see what percent of the turnout in these wards was female in 2004 and 2006 by adding up the totals from a voter file. While it's important to note that there is no margin of error on these two columns because this figure was determined from the entire universe instead of a sample, it is equally (if not more) important to note that just because the percentage of females among the turnout was some number in 2004 and/or 2006 it doesn't necessarily mean that the 2008 turnout had the same allocation. These numbers should only be used for reference purposes. Anyway, here's the table:

Ward	% Hisp	06Female	04Female	% Clinton	% Obama
1	55.12%	50.46%	50.97%	31.11%	67.14%
10	57.09%	51.58%	52.29%	50.75%	46.63%
11	34.01%	51.59%	52.02%	54.03%	41.52%
12	69.38%	51.15%	50.51%	60.14%	37.52%
13	41.38%	53.41%	53.27%	51.22%	44.24%
14	75.53%	52.07%	51.24%	60.52%	36.89%
22	91.18%	52.36%	50.72%	56.31%	42.94%
25	70.46%	51.32%	52.04%	50.07%	47.89%
26	71.07%	53.18%	53.78%	38.21%	59.93%
30	66.45%	52.51%	52.71%	53.02%	45.02%
31	69.75%	52.27%	51.93%	55.00%	43.25%
33	55.34%	51.99%	52.54%	42.97%	54.42%
35	66.14%	52.04%	52.00%	38.46%	59.31%

The 11th ward is the Daley home ward, the 13th is Speaker Madigan's ward, the 14th is Ald. Burke's ward, the 25th is the home ward of then-Clinton campaign manager Patty Solis Doyle and the 33rd is Ald. Mell's ward.

If anything, the numbers look inconsistent. I don't see any obvious explanation for how these wards turned out.

Any theories?

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A Look Back at February 5th

I wanted to take a look back at some of the more intriguing outcomes from the vote totals in the February 5th primary results. One of the more remarkable outcomes, to me anyway, was the lack of support that Howard Brookins received in his race for the Democratic nomination for Cook County States Attorney in Chicago's predominantly African American wards.

There's a pretty consistent record of races where there was a single viable(1) African American candidate in a multi-candidate field where the African American candidate received consistently strong support from the community, with a notable exception of the mayoral candidates running against Richard Daley in recent cycles. However, Howard Brookins comes no where near those traditional numbers. Take a look at this table showing the Democratic primary results from Roland Burris in 1994, 1998 and 2002, plus Barack Obama in 2004 and John Stroger in 2006.

(1) In the 2004 Democratic primary for Senate, Joyce Washington, an African American candidate was also in the field, but was unable to get more than just a couple percentage points, therefore for our purposes being not viable.

Ward	%AA	Brookins	Stroger	Obama 04	Burris 02	Burris 98	Burris 94
2	65.37%	20.56%	67.32%	82.40%	68.13%	80.77%	77.79%
3	85.79%	39.77%	86.07%	87.82%	85.61%	89.06%	88.44%
4	77.81%	32.24%	76.02%	94.24%	73.30%	80.87%	73.05%
5	75.73%	34.31%	72.01%	93.84%	72.91%	79.31%	72.22%
6	97.84%	54.04%	88.87%	94.43%	85.77%	93.33%	91.82%
7	90.65%	44.52%	86.50%	90.63%	80.04%	89.72%	86.77%
8	97.27%	56.02%	88.76%	91.72%	83.63%	93.27%	91.74%
9	92.17%	44.93%	87.45%	89.60%	82.52%	91.95%	90.68%
15	65.65%	31.31%	84.73%	76.88%	77.80%	86.63%	81.70%
16	65.03%	32.52%	87.41%	71.41%	72.07%	82.62%	80.93%
17	97.86%	47.68%	88.93%	89.78%	85.56%	91.54%	90.98%
18	65.67%	44.98%	79.18%	76.53%	76.44%	59.79%	55.64%
20	74.75%	37.73%	86.52%	86.64%	84.60%	90.86%	89.46%
21	97.95%	61.27%	88.02%	92.66%	85.40%	92.64%	92.08%
24	91.27%	32.60%	88.52%	88.68%	86.64%	92.26%	90.74%
27	65.18%	18.78%	76.11%	80.44%	58.57%	73.85%	71.57%
28	86.01%	34.78%	86.73%	85.57%	85.54%	91.06%	90.86%
29	71.46%	44.77%	84.84%	87.70%	73.80%	83.24%	79.72%
34	97.55%	57.99%	89.04%	92.94%	83.40%	89.16%	92.63%
37	72.16%	33.12%	85.05%	84.63%	81.82%	89.50%	87.33%

Please note that the percentage African American comes from the 2000 census, so that data is eight years old, also the 1994 and 1998 Roland Burris results come before the remap that followed the 2000 census, so the demographics in those wards may not be exactly the same before and after redistricting, in particular the 18th ward was redrawn to include significantly more African Americans.

The difference is really striking. Brookins broke 50% only in wards 6, 8, 21 and 34. He is the incumbent Alderman in the 21st ward and yet he only took 61% in his own ward, at least 20 points below the performance of this peer group. I find this remarkable.

I'm not just surprised that Howard Brookins wasn't as strongly embraced by the community, I'm also surprised that it seemed to happen without those in the community having a preferred alternative. As you can see from this table, each of the other candidates was able to attract support in the community:

Ward	%AA	Allen	Alvarez	Suffredin	Milan	Brewer
2	65.37%	21.75%	23.39%	25.29%	4.31%	4.70%
3	85.79%	14.61%	19.43%	16.90%	3.44%	5.85%
4	77.81%	12.07%	19.04%	21.71%	2.90%	12.03%
5	75.73%	13.80%	18.07%	24.86%	3.10%	5.85%
6	97.84%	9.16%	13.00%	16.02%	2.34%	5.44%
7	90.65%	10.41%	14.80%	21.78%	2.53%	5.97%
8	97.27%	9.70%	12.21%	15.22%	2.00%	4.84%
9	92.17%	17.43%	14.45%	15.42%	2.94%	4.82%
15	65.65%	15.90%	26.55%	16.66%	4.26%	5.31%
16	65.03%	15.67%	26.14%	17.59%	3.86%	4.22%
17	97.86%	13.12%	14.67%	15.74%	3.11%	5.69%
18	65.67%	14.71%	17.57%	14.61%	3.64%	4.49%
20	74.75%	14.32%	21.69%	17.64%	3.22%	5.40%
21	97.95%	7.92%	10.16%	14.20%	1.85%	4.59%
24	91.27%	16.38%	18.44%	22.56%	3.56%	6.47%
27	65.18%	16.69%	23.59%	33.29%	3.89%	3.76%
28	86.01%	15.25%	20.79%	20.87%	3.45%	4.85%
29	71.46%	13.92%	20.65%	14.17%	2.66%	3.82%
34	97.55%	10.39%	11.57%	12.97%	2.49%	4.59%
37	72.16%	16.06%	24.10%	19.09%	3.30%	4.33%

The African American community has long maintained that they vote for who they each think is the best candidate regardless of race, gender, geography or other non-merit based characteristics. These vote totals make a strong case for that sentiment.

My question is, what was it about this election that produced such substantially different results relative to other recent Democratic primaries? Why was this election so different?

What role, if any, did the historic Presidential candidacy of Barack Obama have on this outcome?

How was this electorate affected by the endorsement of Larry Suffredin by Jesse Jackson Jr. and the strong labor support for Tom Allen?

In a year when national pundits have breathlessly professed to us a divide among the African American and Latino communities how do you explain the strong showing of Anita Alvarez in this community?

And what should we expect in future elections?

My theory: I honestly have no idea. Your thoughts?

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The new "tax swap"

Senate President Emil Jones Jr.’s name appears on the list of sponsors of a version of a “tax swap” that would reform the way Illinois pays for public education. His support is a reversal from the Democratic leaders’ alliance with the governor last year but consistent with Jones’ stances in years before that. Support from the chamber leader is a big boost for Sen. James Meeks and Sen. John Cullerton’s measure, but the bill has two main hurdles: 1) Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s expected veto of anything that increases state income taxes and 2) the curse of gaming legislation, or getting so weighed down by trying to please everyone that the bill implodes and goes nowhere.

The measure advanced today from the Senate Education Committee, the first of many public hearings planned for this legislation before it’s ready for a vote by the full Senate.

Senate Bill 2288 is the new Senate Bill 750, but it has major differences. (Some are mapped out by Senate Democrats here. The main difference is that the new version would raise a lot more revenue — $7.2 billion — to do a whole lot more, funding a statewide infrastructure program and paying down state debt. Specifically, highlights include $633 million for early childhood and primary education, $300 million for higher education, $2.9 billion for property tax relief adjusted for inflation each year, $600 million for a family tax credit adjusted for inflation each year, $1 billion for a road and school construction plan and more than $1 billion for state pension and Medicaid debt.

“The goal of this bill is to pay off our debts,” Cullerton said in the committee hearing. He later added, “Not one penny is going to the operations of state government.”

Some Republicans in the committee found that hard to believe, but Cullerton said the sponsors eagerly seek input from the GOP and the House to codify better language. The sponsors still have the same list of supporters and opponents as 750. Most education and labor groups support it. Opponents include business groups and the Illinois Department of Revenue. (One school board in Chicago’s northwest suburbs of Palatine and Schaumburg opposed the property tax relief portion and said schools across the state can’t trust Illinois government to deliver, but those witnesses also said they supported many funding reform ideas in the legislation.)

The way the measure would raise the money is by increasing the personal income tax rate from 3 percent to 5 percent and the corporate rate from 4.8 percent to 8 percent. It also could, although it doesn’t yet, take back $800 million from the portion of the state income tax revenue that local governments currently receive.

On the spending side, the measure lists general initiatives but doesn’t specify where the money would go. Also absent, so far, are “accountability” measures, or safeguards for how state and local governments spend the money as intended. That’s a necessary component for Democratic Sen. Susan Garrett of Lake Forest. She voted “present” in committee to symbolize her concerns. “There has to be oversight. It’s not going to happen with this magic wand. I could never support this, especially from my area, without some major, major reforms.”

Meeks said those reforms are going to be drafted after collecting ideas in a series of public hearings, which is particularly important when “nobody trusts us to do what we say we’re going to do.”

We’ll have more details as they unfold. In the meantime, it’s safe to say this version isn’t going to advance for a while, maybe months.

The governor’s response is, according to an e-mail from spokeswoman Rebecca Rausch: “The push for an income tax increase isn’t new in Springfield. The governor’s position hasn’t changed. He thinks we should cut taxes, not raise them — especially at a time when families are already dealing with higher gas bills, higher prices for goods and stagnant wages.”

Jones’ spokeswoman, Cindy Davidsmeyer, said the Senate president has said and continues to say that he will not call this type of controversial measure for a vote on the Senate floor unless it has enough votes to pass — that’s 30 to pass and 36 to override a governor’s veto. Considering all the work that needs to be done to complete the legislation and all the GOP recruiting that needs to happen before the measure has a veto-proof majority, it’s optimistic to think that the bill could be called for a vote before May 31, as Meeks would like.

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Informed Polling and Getting it Right

Cross Posted from Fako & Associates' Political Polling Blog.

Every pollster will tell you that political polls are a snapshot in time and at best consecutive polls can elicit trends, but should not be used to predict turnout or the outcome of an election.

While the national attention is on how the pollsters got it wrong in several contests with surveys taken only days before an election, few are talking about how early surveying often-times gets things right. We've occasionally written about the importance of informed trial heats in some of our past posts.

To refresh, an informed trial heat is designed to simulate the effects of an engaged campaign, presenting balanced positive and negative messages about each candidate (or multiple candidates). The end result of the election scenario tells a campaign what is possible with their messages and themes they plan to implement. Most importantly, this section will determine if the core message works in direct contrast to the opponent(s)' message and can identify movement among the various demographic and attitudinal groups -- helping refine strategy.

F&A recently conducted a benchmark survey for a client running in a Democratic primary for open seat in a multi-candidate open-seat race. The benchmark poll was designed to evaluate the political environment, determine voter’s top issue concerns, examine opinions of the candidates and other significant figures, and test messages in support and in opposition of various candidates. As we always do in comprehensive benchmark polls, we included an informed trial heat question in the survey. The client was on a tight budget and didn't want to include "minor" candidates in the informed trial heat. After some debate, we were able to convince the client to include the "minor" candidates in the question.

We accounted for the ability of the "minor" candidates to get their message out given their budget constraints. Their messages were curtailed in the informed scenario to a simple bio-statement, while "major" candidates received bio, supporting, and opposing information, simulating an engaged campaign.

In our poll, the results of the informed trial heat were unexpected; a "minor" candidate took a 22 percentage point lead above the assumed frontrunner in the informed scenario, an increase of 25% above the candidate's level of support in the initial trial heat (the uninformed horse race question). A "major" candidate jumped up 7% and the assumed frontrunner stalled with a gain within the margin of error. Undecided voters in the initial trial heat heavily sided with one of the "minor" candidates. The percentage of undecided voters was reduced by over 40% in the informed trial heat. At this point we recognized the minor candidate's growth potential and advised the client to pay close attention to this so-called "minor" candidate. We noted that this individual clearly had the basic background and simple message that would break through the clutter of a highly engaged multi-candidate race, despite an initial perception of not being viable.

As the campaign progressed, the so called minor candidate ended up raising some serious money and gained significant earned media attention in addition to their own paid activities. It became apparent that this minor candidate was not minor, something our polling has observed only three months before the election

The "minor" candidate ended up winning this election, slightly ahead of the "major" candidate that we also observed gaining traction through the informed trial heat. This highlighted the usefulness and importance of utilizing informed trial heat questions in polls and why clients should never ignore perceived "minor" opponents. Polls that include an informed trial heat are one of the most useful strategic planning tools available to a campaign. It gives campaigns the information needed to determine if their message works (in the above example, out client’s message was not working); provides detailed strategic planning information, particularly at the demographic sub-group level, and gives campaigns information to prepare and adjust strategy for unanticipated situation (such as an unexpectedly strong opponent).

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Update from Iraq

Take a break from what’s happening in Illinois — Public Official A, Democratic infighting, fiscal implosion — and think abroad. State Rep. Jim Watson, a Jacksonville Republican, reports to us from Iraq, where he’s expected to serve a nine-month tour of duty with the U.S. Marines. We received this e-mail from Ben Jackson in Watson’s legislative office:

Rep. Watson is currently stationed with the U.S. Marine Corps 3rd Civil Affairs Group in Fallujah, Iraq, working with local, tribal, and provincial governments. He is working long days reviewing local and provincial legislation, advising local officials, and assisting in the development of the modern Iraqi government. Tasks to date have included analyzing provincial powers laws (separation of powers) and assisting local government meetings and councils.

He is enjoying his work, and really feels that the Iraqi citizens want to succeed. He stated last week: “Governance is the key to victory, and I can personally attest that the Iraqis are working hard at implementing their own form of representative government.”

However, he is also able to communicate with his District on a regular basis. When he is not performing military duties, Rep. Watson is able to call into the office regularly, and we frequently correspond by e-mail regarding constituent issues, the budget, and his legislative agenda.

What’s in the bag? Watson said it held some of his gear. Jackson said Watson replied, “Hey, you have to work with what’s available around here!”

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Business Roundtable puts out excellent background material on the 2008 constitutional question

The Illinois Business Roundtable (a sort of Chamber of Commerce) released some really excellent research on the 2008 question as to whether we voters should exercise our option to improve our Constitution through calling a convention.

The full report is available from their website here.

Really great stuff on the previous three constitutions and the conventions that led to their successive replacements.

Their conclusion, however, is rather tepid, which is that they aren't interested in a convention. Their reasoning is that because the legislature could be solving big picture issues (like creating good schools in poor areas, or ending the reverse Robin Hood regressive taxes we impose, or modernizing our elections), we don't need to amend the constitution. We just need the legislature and the governor to get to work.

In my view there are structural deficiencies to state government (particularly the excessive authority vested in the Office of the Governor, regardless of who happens to hold the seat) that only a constitutional amendment can solve, and thus a convention is an excellent tool to get some amendments on the 2010 ballot.

But more to the point, the notion that simply because a convention isn't absolutely required due to a clearly deficient constitution, we ought to reject the opportunity that a convention provides to create another avenue to improving Illinois government is wrong-headed.

Any chance we get to improve Illinois government we ought to take.

Those chances don't come around very often.

And when we get a chance to change our government in fundamental ways -- to let the people be heard in another venue and a different context -- that's a chance we need to embrace.

It's the politics of hope over the politics of fear and cynicism.

The position of hope is to say yes, let us take this opportunity to make things better.

The position of cynicism and fear is to say no, it will never work or the special interests won't bend or, more fundamentally, we can't ever really change anyway. So just give up and give in.

We'll never get good schools for poor children in Illinois.

We'll never give more voice to regular people in our elections and in our legislature.

We'll never have the politics that is a model for the nation instead of a political liability for presidential candidates.

I reject that defeatist thinking.

I'm sorry the Roundtable embraces it.

And I hope the people of Illinois join the next President of the United States in saying yes, we can.

And voting yes for the chance to change.

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Jonah Goldberg in Chicago Wednesday

I cannot make it, but National Review writer Jonah Goldberg, who is the author of the best-selling book Liberal Fascism: The Secret History of the American Left, From Mussolini to the Politics of Meaning, will be in Chicago on Wednesday.

The event will be held at the Hunt Club, located at 1100 North State Street in Chicago. If you want to attend, please RSVP to kathleen@americasfuture.org. Copies of Liberal Fascism will be available for purchase and Jonah will be signing books. Jonah will begin his book talk at 7:00 p.m, cocktails begin at 6:00pm.

I'm reading the book now, it'll change the way you think about politics--I guarantee it.

Thank America's Future Foundation for bringing Goldberg to Chicago.

H/T to Jake at the Freedom Folks for the information.

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"My way"

I have Frank Sinatra’s “My Way” stuck in my head. It’s a reoccurring theme in the Statehouse, especially on days like today. Two House Democrats are trying to take a different route than the governor to expand state-sponsored health insurance to 147,000 adults. They’re using legislation, something Gov. Rod Blagojevich tried to do last year but got nowhere. When that didn’t work, he tried using his administrative authority. He repeatedly got blocked there, too. It happened again this morning, but the administration is moving ahead, anyway, stating that it can afford the expansions and that it expects federal approval and matching funds to come through.

This morning, the Joint Committee on Administrative Rules, a bipartisan legislative panel that reviews executive rules, again rejected and suspended the Department of Healthcare and Family Service’s effort to expand a health insurance program to two groups of people: 1) up to 20,000 individuals making up to 185 percent of the federal poverty level who were covered under the State Children’s Health Care Program; and 2) a new group of 147,000 adults who make up to 400 percent of the federal poverty level.

Background resources: See the administration’s original proposal in the November 26, 2007, Illinois Register, and scroll down to No. 15854. You can read more about the governor’s attempt to expand health care in my February column of Illinois Issues magazine and in a November blog.

Rep. Lou Lang, a Skokie Democrat and JCAR member, summed up his constitutional concerns and frustrations during the hearing. “Under what chutzpah do you come to this body and ask us to approve a rule that we already rejected when you had the unmitigated gall to put 3,300 people on a program that you ask us to approve that we did not approve? Why are we here?”

“To have an open forum, to hear comment, to participate, to try to make sure that we’re implementing, to listen to concerns,” replied Tamara Hoffman, chief of staff for the Department of Healthcare and Family Services.

The legislation proposed by the two House Democrats would do exactly the same thing to cover 147,000 more adults. The difference is that it would require the full General Assembly to approve the money allocated to the program every single year, allowing them to adjust for budget shortfalls.

“If it’s going to happen, this is how it should happen,” said Rep. John Fritchey, a Chicago Democrat sponsoring the measure with fellow Democratic Rep. David Miller of Lynwood, in a Statehouse news conference.

Both said they hope legislative hearings would be more successful in getting answers from the administration. Hearings could vet out the details so the full General Assembly, rather than a 12-member panel, could decide whom to cover, at what level to cover them and how to pay for it in the long run. “Going through the legislative process I think empowers the voters,” Miller said. He added that maybe 400 percent of the federal poverty level isn’t the threshold. Maybe it’s less, but that’s what the hearings would aim to figure out.

Fritchey added that the legislation could buffer 3,300 new enrollees, a number given by the administration today. Those people potentially could lose FamilyCare benefits if a judge rules that the governor violated his constitutional authority to expand a health care program without legislative approval. Read background of the lawsuit filed against the administration here. If a judge did rule against the administration, however, Rep. Rosemary Mulligan, a Des Plaines Republican and JCAR member, said it’s more likely that the Department of Healthcare and Family Services wouldn’t kick anyone off of the health insurance program; it simply would eat the cost and make up for it elsewhere. Hoffman said the department won't speculate about what would happen if the lawsuit overturns the administration’s authority to expand the program.

Department officials also said it has the money in its current budget to cover the expansions, but they didn’t specify. The General Assembly never approved spending authority specifically to cover the expanded health care programs. Department heads left without answering questions after the vote.

Eight JCAR members rejected the administration’s rule. Two Republican members went against the grain. Mulligan and Rep. Brent Hassert of Romeoville said they’re not happy with the administration’s lack of answers and don’t believe it has the money to cover the expansions, but they do believe the department has the authority to do expand FamilyCare. That’s because, Mulligan said, the General Assembly approved that authority in 2006. Hassert added that the JCAR hearings on the governor’s health care plans are symptomatic of the ongoing game of politics between the governor and House Speaker Michael Madigan.

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The possibilty of seventeen-year olds voting

* Representative Lou Lang's proposed Illinois Constitutional Amendment, HJRCA0029, was discussed at the Ethics and Campaign Reform Committee today. There was a considerable amount of press there, seeing as how this has ground-breaking potential if it hits the House floor for a vote. The proposal did in fact pass 5 to 3.

* The details of the proposal are still fuzzy, but if in fact enacted Illinois will be the first state in the Union to allow 17 year olds the right to vote in a general election. Rep. Lang said that he believes the issue to be especially relevant with arrival of the information age:

"Some seventeen-year olds are more knowledgeable about politics than many sixty-year olds who only vote on the last sound-byte that they hear."

* There are currently eleven states that allow seventeen-year olds to vote in the primary election if they will be eligible by the general election, but none that allow them to vote in the general if they are not eighteen.

Representative McCarthy got a round of laughter from the room when he added:

"Representative Lang, I know people from your generation had to wait until they were twenty-one."

* The discussion mostly hinged around the difficulty of having a hypothetical separate ballot for seventeen-year olds, since they would not be allowed to vote for federal candidates unless the U.S. Constitution was also amended. Some representatives feared the added costs of creating such a system, or the bureaucratic nightmares that could follow.

It is hard to speculate as to the chances of Rep. Lang's bill passing in the future, especially with so many unanswered questions surrounding the idea. But there is a strong likelihood that even if the bill does not pass Illinois could become the 12th state to allow seventeen-year olds who aren't eighteen by the primary but will be in the general, the right to vote. Representative McCarthy hinted as to the likelihood of support for a compromise like this, even though he voted "no" because of his constituency's objections. Only time will tell, but with the recent surge of young participation in the Illinois primary, the iron definitely seems hot to strike.

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Adeline Geo-Karis: Role Model and Cautionary Tale

With the passing of former State Sen. Adeline Geo-Karis of Zion a few weeks ago a host of glowing tributes were offered to that pioneering woman. Though well-deserved, Geo-Karis’ story was a lot more complicated than the tributes indicated. If Geo-Karis showed the way for many Republican leaders, particularly women, she also became an object lesson in how not to pass on the torch without damaging a life’s work.

I was in high school when she was first elected to the Illinois Legislature. Right from the start she cast a large shadow in politics in Lake County. In the late 70’s a couple friends of mine and I took an extended trip meandering about the country. It was a marvelous experience, but for all the adventure involved, one still gets a little homesick. One crisp fall night we were all feeling a bit melancholy, wandering the streets of Bar Harbor, Maine. Coming around a corner we were startled to see an old Buick plastered with stickers urging us to re-elect Adeline Geo-Karis. “Good God, the woman’s everywhere,” one friend exclaimed as we all busted out in laughter. It was the secret to her success.

As she rose Geo (as everyone called her) served as mentor to a whole generation of politicians and activists in Lake County. From the mid-80’s through the early 90’s I was one of them. I drove her around, wrote some one-liners for her and plotted strategy with her. Traveling with her was astonishing. We would hit a couple of events – and that would be the shortest part of the day. She knew about every funeral, every christening, every wedding and every bar mitzvah that went on in her district. We would stop by unannounced at three to seven such events every time I accompanied her. There was no room for any sort of life beyond politics for her. It was an electoral strength, but I began to think the woman was terribly lonely sometimes, even amidst the crowds in which she was the constant center of attention.

There was a joke in those days that the most dangerous place to be was between Geo and a microphone or a TV camera. During the Bears great Super Bowl season, we even joked that the real test for the offensive line would be to try to block her out from a public microphone. I benefitted from that trait in 1988 as Ronald Reagan was making his valedictory tour around the country. He threw out the first pitch at a Cubs game and gave a speech that evening at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Geo asked me if I wanted to take her there. Gosh, the chance to listen to Reagan at the end of his great presidency; that was a no-brainer. When we arrived, Geo had ordinary tickets. But she was Geo and bulled her way right to the front row, dead center. So I got to watch and hear Reagan from a distance of 15 yards.

Geo was not particularly ideologically motivated; constituent service was her hallmark. She was very good at it, doggedly working to solve any problem a constituent brought her. In her heyday, she was the one I would go to when anyone brought me a problem they were having with government. Whether they were in her district or not she would almost always get action – and always cared to make it happen. She had no family of her own. In a very real way, the people she served became her surrogate family.

Sometime in the early to mid-90’s something began to change. Geo did become far more ideologically driven on certain matters. One evening we went to dinner after a series of events and she told me earnestly that the party had to get off this pro-life stuff. I was a bit taken aback and told her that for many of us, including me, it was a key principle and one of the main reasons we were Republican. She told me it was a loser and we really needed to drop it. I don’t know who was more shocked; me, to hear her say this or her, to hear me say I would cease to be a Republican before I would cease to be pro-life. From that time on I don’t think I ever saw her without her earnestly trying to convince me to drop the pro-life business. It was the classic divide in politics: some choose issues to advance their party while others choose their party to advance their issues. Both are a little bewildered by the other.

Without adopting the fringe politics of the feminist movement, Geo became very decidedly feminist in political practice. She began to reflexively support any woman running against any man, while candidly saying she thought we needed more women in office. It was the one form of identity politics she unabashedly supported. Some of her old alliances became strained, even broken as it continued. Former Illinois House Majority Leader Bob Churchill had been one of her closest protégés as he rose in politics. I never knew exactly what happened, but the relationship between them did not just get strained, it got broken. Though a dramatic break, it was not an aberration. It was symptomatic of an undercurrent that was developing between Geo and a lot of her old comrades.

For much of her career Geo was a pioneer, storming the barricades of country club Republicanism. She was the first woman this, the first woman that…so many firsts you couldn’t keep up with it all. She was the pride of the very large Greek community in Lake County. If you ever spend time there and note that there are quite a lot of Greek office-holders and judges, Geo had a lot to do with it. In the 70’s, 80’s and into the early 90’s she played a huge role in building the Republican Party and bringing in a host of new people who had either not been in before or, despite great talent, had been shut out.

Throughout her career her constituents adored her. Heaven knows, she had danced at most of their weddings, mourned at their funerals, prayed at their baptisms – she was one of the family for almost every family in Lake County. My own children still speak of her as Auntie Geo. But the tensions from internal feuds began taking their toll in the last 15 years. Though the feuds rarely entered into public view, more and more frequently colleagues and Geo found themselves working at cross purposes in muffled battles over both issues and political predominance. Some became irritated at what they considered a sense of entitlement growing in her. They would complain that Geo more frequently expected people to do things her way because it was she who wanted it rather than to advocate on the merits.

As illness and age took their toll, many political leaders began worrying that her Senate seat was beginning to look vulnerable. When longtime Congressman Phil Crane was unexpectedly toppled by Melissa Bean in 2004, local leaders sat up and took notice. Crane had been a local hero in the 60’s, 70’s and 80’s. But his seat got progressively more vulnerable as he stayed on long past the period when he had had impact. Many Republicans began to fear that in Geo, they had a Crane scenario in the making if they didn’t do something. They feared, though, that Geo wouldn’t have it. It was a terrible irony: she who had successfully stormed so many barricades in building the Republican Party was now considered to be the main barricade by many who sought to continue that work.

But Geo surprised them. She, too, understood the toll that age and illness was taking. She had groomed a longtime protégé, Warren Twp. Supervisor Sue Simpson to replace her and was clearing the field for Simpson. Many insiders breathed a deep sigh of relief. Lake County Dem. Chairman and State Sen. Terry Link was obviously targeting that seat. Few, even among those who loved Geo best, believed the seat could be held under sustained assault if Geo were to run again. In public she often nodded off, traveled with an oxygen tank in tow, and more than occasionally lost track of what the subject at hand was in public debate. The best hope to retain the seat was to have a younger, vigorous successor supported by Geo. Everyone believed that was what had happened.

Something went wrong, though. Somewhere along the line Geo decided it was not time to move on, after all. But her designated successor, Sue Simpson, did not bow out. After spending several decades as Geo’s protégé, Simpson was now treated as her bitterest enemy. A deep, new feud burst into public view. An already divided Republican Party in Lake County became even more divided as good people settled on either Geo or Simpson. I will confess that I thought Geo was going to win the primary going away, that her surrogate family was going to give her one more tour of duty. It didn’t happen that way. Though her constituents still loved her, they sent her the painful message as gently as they could – that they loved her but it was time. Geo was hurt. Sadly, the pain of rejection morphed into a bitter repudiation of all that she had stood for in her long career. She, who stormed the barricades, who expanded and grew the party, who put service first, now threw her support to the Democrat, Michael Bond, doing everything she could to defeat her old protégé, Simpson, and, in the process, shrink and divide the local party she had done so much to grow and unite. While her old constituents had told her it was time to go, they still loved her and honored her by making the Democrat she supported into their new state senator.

There are still some Republicans in Lake County who bear each other ill will because of that bitter election. Those who loyally supported Geo to the end did not act dishonorably. Those who thought it time to move on did not, either. Most likely the only way the seat could have been held was with a successor who had her support. It was an impossible situation for Republican leaders.

I loved and admired Geo. The first 20 years of her career serve as a real lesson in how to build and grow a strong organization. The last few serve as a cautionary tale to leaders on how easy it is to damage what they have spent a lifetime building. She was an archetype of politician as noble servant to her constituents. May all remember that as her enduring legacy – and remember that when it ceases to be about service and begins to be about entitlement, it is time to move on, lest you mar the best work of your own hands.

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Chicago is Barack Obama's kind of town

A pretty good article from this past January about the political environment that allows black politicians to move ahead in the system. This article from Salon.com says that if Sen. Obama had stayed in New York no one would have heard from him. He might have won an office but we may not have gone beyond for example, the New York State Assembly. I suppose a question to ask here is what would account for this? Why would Obama have never been heard from had he stayed in New York or also California or Hawaii?

Here's an excerpt. There is a lot about black history in Chicago. From Republican Oscar DePriest who was during the early 20th Century the only black man in Congress to William Dawson who operated a mostly black political machine until he was co-opted by the first Mayor Daley, or even some of the other black politicians of today including Harold Washington, Carol Moseley Braun or Sen. Obama himself...

For the hundreds of thousands of poor Southern blacks who made the trek north in the early 20th century, Chicago was literally known as the promised land. It promised prosperity, relative freedom -- and also, incredibly, political power. When the sharecroppers of Alabama and Mississippi passed around copies of the nation's biggest black newspaper, the Chicago Defender, in the 1920s and '30s, they read about a city with something unheard of in the rest of America: a black representative in the U.S. House. Oscar S. De Priest was a Republican, loyal to the party of Lincoln, and as the lone black man in Congress, he ended discrimination in the Civilian Conservation Corps, filed anti-lynching bills, and integrated the Senate Dining Room, over the physical objections of an Alabama senator.

De Priest was defeated in 1934, after the New Deal converted blacks to the Democratic faith, but his seat has remained in African-American hands ever since. It's currently held by Bobby Rush, a former minister of defense for the Black Panther Party.

When Barack Obama was 22 years old, just out of Columbia University, he took a $10,000-a-year job as a community organizer on the South Side of Chicago. It was a shrewd move for a young black man with an interest in politics. Had he stayed in New York, "you would never have heard of him," says Lou Ransom, the Defender's current executive editor. "He may have been a very good lawyer and maybe got elected to some office, but if he hadn't come to Chicago, he would not have had the kind of support to push him where he is now."

His home state of Hawaii is more diverse, the California of his early college days is more tolerant, New York is more sophisticated. But only in Illinois could Obama have become a senator and a presidential candidate. Going all the way back to Oscar De Priest (and in some ways to Abraham Lincoln), Illinois has led the nation in black political empowerment. It has elected two of the three black senators since Reconstruction -- Obama and Carol Moseley Braun. It's had a black attorney general, and its black secretary of state is setting a new standard for that office by not taking bribes (or at least not getting caught). The only other black candidate to win a presidential primary was Jesse Jackson, who came to Chicago from the South as a seminary student and stuck around to build his own political machine.

Ironically, Chicago became the political capital of black America because it was so racist. For most of the 20th century, it was the most segregated city in America. Blacks used to have a saying: "In the South, the white man doesn't care how close you get, as long as you don't get too high; in the North, he doesn't care how high you get, as long as you don't get too close." During the Great Migration, the refugees who rode up from Mississippi on the Illinois Central Railroad were crowded into the Black Belt, the South Side ghetto portrayed in Richard Wright's "Native Son." Because the black population was so concentrated, white politicians couldn't gerrymander it out of a congressional seat. One of De Priest's successors, William Dawson, was the most powerful black politician in America. He helped boot out the predecessor to Mayor Richard J. Daley, the current mayor's father, who bossed Chicago from 1955 to 1976. In return, Daley's machine rewarded Dawson with control of the entire South Side.

Consider this Illinoize's only black history month entry for this year!

Oh BTW, the book An Autobiography of Black Politics written by Chicago real estate developer Dempsey J. Travis is a good book to look at the history black politics in Chicago. It starts with the founder of Chicago Jean Baptist Pointe du Sable some black politicians during the 19th century then the developments over the 20th Century and ultimately concludes with the election as mayor of Harold Washington in 1983. You should check it if it's of your interest especially if it's available at your local bookstore or at Amazon.com.

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Clarification

Last week, I reported about revenue ideas, specifically mentioning an income tax increase. Thanks to commenters, I realize the need to clarify two things:

First, such business groups as the Taxpayers Federation of Illinois and the Civic Committee of the Commercial Club of Chicago said last year they could swallow a state income tax increase if Illinois also — or first — enacted reforms to control such costs as public employee pensions and retiree health care benefits. In last week's post, I mentioned the portion about the Taxpayers' Federation of Illinois willing to support an income tax increase but did not mention the other side of the equation – its belief in the need to take steps to address the structural deficit. See David Eldridge's comments at the bottom of this post. (I also wrote about both sides of the equation last spring.) And more background can be found in the Civic Committee's full December 2006 report that suggests raising money by increasing income taxes and expanding sales taxes while also cutting costs and reforming the education funding system.

Second, both groups recommended increasing the personal income tax rate from 3 percent to 4 percent, which is not the same thing as a 1 percent increase. See Cal Skinner's comment at the bottom of this post. (More context: The Civic Committee's report also recommended increasing the corporate income tax rate from 4.8 percent to 6.4 percent and expanding the state sales tax to apply to consumer services.)

Be specific, please
State legislators would have to be more specific in the state budget when they requested money for projects within their districts under a measure that sailed out of the House today. They would have to spell out who requested the money, what it's for and whom it would benefit. Sponsor Rep. Patricia Reid Lindner, an Aurora Republican, called it a good government measure aimed to make the budget-making process more transparent, as opposed to the common practice of slipping in vague descriptions of rather hefty grants for local projects, a.k.a. pork.

The measure received 99 supporting votes and one in opposition, but a few members voiced concerns about whether the rules would actually work as intended. Rep. David Leitch, a Peoria Republican, was the lone “no” vote because the requirement could draw out the process if simple errors were made in the state budget, he said. For instance, a drafting error prevented the state from awarding a grant to a cancer center in his district even though it had received legislative approval. “You're absolutely correct. We should provide a description. We should provide transparency. But this would be a very impractical way to accomplish your worthwhile goal.”

The measure now goes to the Senate, where lawmakers predict it will have a tougher time getting approved.

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Moment of silence returns

By Patrick O’Brien
The controversial law mandating a moment of silence or prayer in state schools will face a challenge at the Statehouse after a House committee on Thursday approved a proposal by one vote to make the moment of silence optional.

Chicago Democratic Rep. John Fritchey proposed taking the word “prayer” out of the law’s name. Gov. Rod Blagojevich vetoed the law last year but was overridden by legislators. Classrooms are now mandated to observe the moment at the beginning of each school day, although there are no penalties for not complying.

Fritchey insists that the issue isn’t prayer in schools, rather the wording of the original law. He said after the committee hearing that he would prefer to repeal the moment of silence mandate but would compromise by reverting back to the intent of the original 1969 law allowing it.

A federal judge in the Northern District of Illinois is considering whether the mandate is constitutional. James Ferg-Cadima, a representative of the American Civil Liberties Union, told the committee that the court indicated that a challenge is likely to succeed.

Rev. Bob Vanden Bosch of Concerned Christian Americans said similar laws in Virginia and Texas survived multiple court challenges. Other supporters of the original law say that 32 states have similar laws, and 14 of them make the moment of silence mandatory.

Rep. Karen Yarbrough, a Maywood Democrat, said the law is about prayer. “In people’s hearts and minds, that is the underlying issue here.”

Other lawmakers think the mandate harms schools’ bottom lines. Rep. Bill Black, a Danville Republican and former teacher, said the law takes more control from local school districts and gives it to Springfield. “It’s not about God, it’s not about my faith.”

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Budget breakdown

Old contents, new package
Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s grandiose budget proposals of the past made this year’s speech — his sixth since taking office — seem tame, almost conciliatory after last year’s political turmoil and gridlock. His new proposals remain focused on benefiting the middle class, this time with a one-time tax credit for families and businesses to help stimulate the economy, in addition to expanded health care. But Blagojevich’s overall package faces widespread skepticism about whether the funding sources for those tax credits and health care, along with other revenue ideas for education, pensions and infrastructure could fly in the legislature — let alone be good for the state down the road.

House Republican Leader Tom Cross of Oswego said if someone in the audience were from Mars and visiting Illinois for the first time, it might seem appealing — tax credits, health care and road and school construction projects. “It sounded good, and there may be something to it, but as you dive into the details, you’re going to see one-time revenues, you’re going to see borrowing, you’re going to see maybe a pension bond deal, you’re going to see a tax increase, you’re going to see corporate loopholes. More of the same, but talk about the devil in the details, it won’t be good.”

Overall support
Few, if any, came out in support of the entire package, although some aspects did receive positive feedback. Cross, for one, said he and the House GOP Caucus appreciate the governor’s proposals to further streamline government and to cut costs, but Cross said that alone wouldn’t solve the deep-rooted budget problems. The governor also has support from the Campaign for Better Health Care for the concept of universal health care. The Champaign-based nonprofit group backed the governor’s similar plan last year and issued a statement today that blames the General Assembly for failing to enact affordable, quality health care for all. The Chicago-based Illinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights also issued a statement in support of the governor’s plan to dedicate significant amounts of money to citizenship services, English programs and other immigration-related initiatives.

Critics
The main argument among critics, including Republicans and business groups, is that the one-time tax breaks for families and businesses would be counteracted by a laundry list of other tax credits that the governor wants to erase. A lot of businesses also would be subject to a so-called payroll tax to pay for expanded health care. The GOP and the Illinois Chamber of Commerce lump those together to say the governor proposes more than $1 billion in tax increases for businesses.

Chamber president and chief executive officer Doug Whitley summed it up this way: “I’m glad that he’s finally recognizing that he needs to pay a little bit of attention to business, but as far as I’m concerned, he can keep that business tax credit, which is a one-time proposal. While on the other hand, he’s trying to raise over $1 billion annually from employers. That doesn’t make a lot of sense to me.”

Tone
Many agreed, however, that the governor seemed to adjust his tone for this speech. He even made fun of his extremely unpopular idea last year to enact a gross receipts tax on businesses by saying he had a better appreciation of Hank Williams’ lyrics, “I’m so lonesome I could cry.” While seeming to blame the House for not sending him a capital construction plan that passed the Senate last year, Blagojevich repeatedly called for lawmakers and the Democratic leaders, in particular, to put side their differences and nix the “poison pills.”

“A Republican president and a Democrat-controlled congress put aside their differences and came together to act quickly,” he said relating to federal tax cuts. “If Washington can do it, we can do it.”

An amiable tone is necessary if there’s any chance to avoid last year’s legislative purgatory that stretched 12 months. But, as Cross pointed out, lawmakers’ frustration isn’t just directed at the governor. They feel “hand cuffed” and angered by Democratic infighting among House Speaker Michael Madigan and Senate President Emil Jones Jr. that entangled numerous legislative agendas.

Today could have set the stage for a potentially shorter and smoother session. Yet there’s a lot to work out, considering that the governor’s budget proposal lacked details and failed to define exactly how he would divvy up new revenue. Comptroller Dan Hynes pointed out that while the governor’s not quite proposing another bombshell like a gross-receipts-tax, he still wants a major health care expansion, a $1.2 billion tax relief plan and a $16 billion pension bond scheme that increases the state’s debt by the same amount. Hynes’ question: How do we fund all these programs when even the governor acknowledges revenues are slowing, the economy is teetering on recession and the state already suffers from a structural deficit?

4 top legislative leaders

• House Speaker Michael Madigan: Wants to prevent the “prolonged, acrimonious encore of last year.” He intends to vet the budget process more with a series of regional hearings, but he also has potential to slow down legislative progress with a new rule that all legislation needs additional language to spell out how to implement the new laws. Jones said that’s blatantly unconstitutional and problematic for the passage of legislation in his chamber.
  
• Senate President Emil Jones Jr.: Supports the governor’s general plans but says he’s open to an income tax increase or a gaming expansion if lawmakers shore up enough support. He said his priority, interestingly, was to keep his caucus together, a huge problem last year.
  
• House Minority Leader Tom Cross: Likes the notion of considering ways to cut government spending. But he’s skeptical of the long-term effect of selling a portion of the state lottery and losing an estimated $700 million each year. He says all members want a capital bill, and some still support gaming expansion as a funding source.
  
• Senate Minority Leader Frank Watson: The governor can’t have it both ways by offering tax cuts and then increasing spending related to health care and Medicaid. Watson points to a potential revenue source of selling the state’s 10th casino license as a way to fund a state capital program. He’s wary of any tax policies that would further damage the state’s business climate.

What’s still out there

• Gaming: The typical advocates of gaming expansions are still pushing for last year’s proposal to build two new riverboats and one new casino in Chicago, but as Democratic Sen. John Cullerton of Chicago said, “Gambling is like a Christmas tree. You keep on putting ornaments on there, and finally, it just falls over. It’s just so complicated.”
  
• Income tax increase: The idea to change the way Illinois funds public education by increasing the state’s income tax and decreasing local property taxes is still breathing. It has new life in Sen. James Meeks’ legislation that also would use some of that money to pay for a capital plan. But the governor repeats his pledge not to sign an income tax increase.
  

Budget basics
Details are slim, but here’s the skeleton of Blagojevich’s general proposals:

• Child tax credits: $300 tax credit per child for Illinois taxpayers who qualify for the federal tax break. Funding source: “Securitization” of state assets, or selling an existing revenue source to investors for a one-time influx of cash. The only specific example provided by the administration: Get an up-front payment from investors who buy the state’s portion of national tobacco settlement funds. The justification is that those funds are likely to decrease because the state has fewer smokers and has a statewide smoking ban.
• Business tax breaks: $300 million in tax breaks — amounting to a 20 percent break — for businesses that filed corporate income taxes in Illinois for 2007 and that maintained employment levels. Funding source: Partially be paid for by “securitization” of a dwindling revenue source.
  
• Health care: $417 million “Illinois Covered” health care plan. Funding source: 3 percent payroll tax on businesses with more than 10 employees (this is very similar to his proposal last year).
  
• Education: $300 million increase for education, but it would be up to the legislature to hash out where the money would go in the education system. Funding source: Selling 80 percent of the Illinois Lottery for $7 billion.
  
• Infrastructure: $25 billion capital plan with money for schools, roads, bridges, mass transit, airports, railways, energy and technology, economic development and state buildings. Funding source: selling 80 percent of the Illinois Lottery and by issuing $3.8 billion in bonds. The debt service would come from annual transfers from the Road Fund.
  
• Pensions: $16 billion pension obligations bonds (borrowing/refinancing debt) to pay down pensions and to save money from a lower interest rate. Funding source: Partially by selling the Illinois Lottery and by transferring $300 million each year from the Road Fund and other sources.

Other revenue proposals

• Gaming tax: Increase gaming tax rates (on riverboats) on a sliding scale, generating $300 million
  
• New casino/riverboat: Accept bids on the dormant 10th gaming license for an up-front $575 million; once online, the new casino also would generate money for the state each year.
  
• Fund transfers: Take back excess money from special purpose funds and “charge” them for cost of administering those funds, generating $95 million.
  
• Corporate “loopholes”: End a laundry list of tax breaks for businesses, generating $140 million.
  
• State employee head count/streamline: Don’t replace employees who retire or quit, and continue to consolidate administrative functions.
  
• Sell more state assets: Sell state buildings that are or will be vacant, generating $40 million.
  

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Blagojevich a control freak with state budget

When Gov. Rod Blagojevich gives his budget address Wednesday, he’s going to elicit a combination of emotions – boredom and anger.

Legislators, lobbyists and other Statehouse Scene observers are going to struggle to stay awake due to the governor’s whiny voice and less-than-exciting public speaking skills. But those same people are going to enter the Illinois House chambers for the speech totally upset.

Blagojevich, in his desire to exert complete oversight of the process of presenting a budget proposal for the upcoming Illinois government fiscal year, is showing himself to be a control freak.

That kind of attitude is going to mess with the attitudes of the people the governor will ultimately need to approve a state budget. So we can forget about any notion that lawmakers will “play nice” this year and not do anything as embarrassing as last year’s behavior – where a funding resolution for Chicago mass transit dragged into the early weeks of this year.

What has Statehouse people upset is the idea that Blagojevich is being extra secretive about the details of the government spending plan he will present Wednesday at noon.

Gubernatorial aides, particularly those who work with the Bureau of the Budget, have spent the past few months putting together a spending plan for the upcoming fiscal year that would in theory allow Illinois government to not be deeper in debt on June 30, 2009.

Their work culminates with the governor’s budget address, which is one of the ceremonial rituals that defines the Statehouse Scene. After Wednesday, the budget process gets handed off to the General Assembly, which will spend the next few months reviewing and amending a budget plan until taking a final vote before adjourning for the summer.

The governor’s budget address is one of the ceremonial moments of the state government academic year. It’s almost like Homecoming at a college campus, where a lot of people come out of the woodwork to see what the old place looks like. Wednesday in Springfield will be a madhouse with politicos and their observers all making sure to be at the Statehouse so they can see for themselves just what Blagojevich has in mind.

To accommodate those people with differing interests, the governor’s staff usually conducts briefings the day before the budget address to provide a summary of what is in the spending plan.

The General Assembly’s leaders and the state constitutional officers (attorney general, secretary of state, etc.) all are given a presentation, and they in turn provide a review for their key aides.

In the case of the state Legislature’s members, they receive briefings from their respective partisan leaders, which means Republican senators and representatives are told of all the budget’s shortcomings, and the Democrats in theory are told of its strengths.

Even reporters who work regularly at the Statehouse are given a pair of briefings. From my experience covering state government under governors James R. Thompson, Jim Edgar and George H. Ryan, one briefing would occur in the afternoon – with the state budget director prepared to take detailed questions about the governor’s spending priorities.

The second briefing would come in the evening, and would be held by the governor himself to allow him the chance to influence the way reporters perceived the budget.

Under the agreement, reporters would not actually write or broadcast anything about the budget proposal until the governor’s budget address began. The advantage to reporters is they had something of a clue as to what was in the several-hundreds-of-pages budget book and could write a more intelligent story or two after the afternoon budget speech.

It also meant that an enterprising reporter could have the bulk of the story written, and could spend their after-speech time gaining intelligent reaction to the spending plan.

What made reactions somewhat intelligent was that lawmakers who were commenting on the proposal actually had an idea what was in the budget even before the speech began. They actually knew what they were talking about.

Not this year. The budgetary briefings are being held in the final hours of Wednesday morning just prior to the speech. Blagojevich himself is not participating. With that little lead time, the concept of briefings that are worth anything is a joke.

Blagojevich, as I said before, is being a control freak.

He's not allowing anyone outside of his immediate circle to know what is in the Illinois government spending proposal until the absolute last possible minute. I would imagine any of his staff who actually talked to a legislator, lobbyist or reporter would wind up losing his or her job.

It also means Blagojevich is needlessly ticking off the Legislature, which in theory is controlled by his politically partisan allies. A Democrat-run Illinois House and state Senate ought to be prepared to give Chicago Democrat Blagojevich whatever he wants.

Fat chance. The Chicago White Sox have a better chance this year of winning the World Series than Blagojevich has of achieving détente with the General Assembly.

I can’t understand why Blagojevich, who has threatened to pull similar tactics in the past, is so willing to antagonize the pols, unless he seriously believes the Illinois electorate is so stupid that they will automatically believe “it’s the Legislature’s fault” for whatever problems arise in state government this spring.

It is because of moments like this that I find it ridiculous when people complain Chicago Democrats are taking over Illinois politics and will run everything with strong-arm tactics.

“The Three Stooges” is a more appropriate image. The constant tensions and backstabbing are going to prevent any politically partisan agenda from being imposed on the people of Illinois.

In fact, the only reason Blagojevich may get away with this is because the current status of the Republican Party in Illinois is brain-dead. There are no signs the GOP in Illinois will be able to put together a credible candidate to challenge the second-term governor who has made it clear he expects to be elected to Term Number Three come the 2010 elections.

So if you are one of those people who feel a need to watch the broadcasts of the budget address that likely will air on public television stations across Illinois, keep in mind that the governor is not just a bumbling speaker who historically takes up to two hours to deliver the same type of speech that his predecessors could give in 40 minutes.

He's a conniving politico who is facing a potentially angry mob.

Because he’s governor, he thinks he can get away with it. There’s just one lesson Blagojevich should heed, and it comes from Illinois political history.

In their book “The Glory and the Tragedy,” former Statehouse reporters Taylor Pensoneau and Bob Ellis wrote that former Gov. Dan Walker pulled the exact same stunt – nobody was allowed to see his first budget proposal until he literally started speaking for his first budget address in 1973.

Walker, who had gone through a tenuous campaign against the Democratic organization in Chicago to become Illinois governor, cemented a reputation among his alleged political allies as a political pain in the derriere.

His budget stunt was just one of several reasons that built up into the Democratic Party challenging his desire for re-election in 1976. Even though the challenge ultimately resulted in a Republican winning that election cycle and starting a streak of 26 years with GOP governors, many Democrats of that era thought that dumping Dan Walker made the elections that year a complete success.

If he’s not careful, Rod Blagojevich could find himself in the same position two years from now.

-30-

Originally posted at http://www.chicagoargus.blogspot.com/.

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One Version of the Budget Address

Rich is pointing out that there was not an off the record budget briefing from the governors office this year.

However here at OneMan central we have gotten a preview copy...

Dear Citizens of Illinois, in the past I have tried to do big things for you, health care, better school funding all without raising income taxes. I have failed you, due to the lack of vision of the people in front of me, they have didn't have the vision to approve the GRT, they didn't have the vision to lease the lottery or toll road. They didn't embrace Kino, they have asked questions about what I have wanted to do for you and all around meddled in my plans.

No more....

We are going to buy the Chicago Cubs and I will serve as GM along with being the coolest governor.

How we are going to pay for this. Simple, I am going to sweep every single fund down to 0 and we are not going to pay any bills for 6 months.

That's it, if you don't approve it I will have more special sessions than you can shake a bat at. I will veto anything and everything you do until this happens. I will end up seeing you in court. While you guys are dealing with all of that I will be enjoying the summer at Blago Field opps I mean Wrigley Field.

Go Cubs, I have to catch a Hannah Montana episode I think he secret identity is going to be revealed to the world.

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New names

In preparing for Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s annual budget address this week, it might help to have a list of new names in state government. You can keep track of personnel changes as well as other newsy “People” items in the print version of our magazine every month. Note that the following information is attributed to the administration.

OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
• Kelley Quinn, spokeswoman for the Office of Management and Budget since January, previously worked in Cook County Clerk David Orr’s office. Before that, she was a reporter for a newspaper in upstate New York and a court reporter for the Chicago Daily Law Bulletin. She replaces Justin DeJong, who is now spokesman for the Chicagoland Chamber of Commerce.

GOVERNOR’S PRESS OFFICE
• David Rudduck became a press secretary for the governor after working 17 years in communications, most recently as regional director of communication and government relations for the American Red Cross.

CENTRAL MANAGEMENT SERVICES
• Cybil Rose is spokeswoman for Central Management Services. She has a decade of experience working behind the scenes in local news, including as executive news producer for CLTV News. She relieves Susan Hofer, who was serving double duty as spokeswoman for CMS and for the Department of Financial and Professional Regulation.

COMMUNICATION AND INFORMATION
• Bob Arya became deputy director of the Office of Communication and Information. He previously was a senior adviser to the governor. Before joining the state, he spent 11 years as a news anchor and reporter for Chicagoland’s Television.
• Rikeesha Cannon was spokeswoman of the Department of Human Services and now is senior communications manager of the Office of Communication and Information. She used to be a spokeswoman for the Sargent Shriver National Center on Poverty Law in Chicago. She replaces Chris Herbert.

HEALTHCARE AND FAMILY SERVICES
• Ruth Igoe replaces Amy Rosenband as spokeswoman for the Department of Healthcare and Family Services. Igoe is the former communications director for the Greater Chicago Food Depository.
• Annie Thompson is the new Springfield spokeswoman for the Illinois Department of Healthcare and Family Services. She most recently was a press assistant with the governor’s press office. She replaces Teresa Kurtenbach, who now works in the Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity.

HUMAN SERVICES
• Marielle Sainvilus switched from a press officer with the governor’s office to a spokeswoman of Department of Human Services and director of the governor’s Multicultural Media Affairs. She replaces Rikeesha Cannon, who moved to the governor’s Office of Information and Communication.

COMMERCE AND ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
• Ashley Cross, former spokeswoman for Allstate Insurance Co., joined the state as a spokeswoman of the Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity in Chicago. She replaces Andrew Ross, who returned to the private sector.
• Marcelyn Love switched from the spokeswoman for the departments of Agriculture and Natural Resources to the Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity. She replaces Mark Harris, who left to work for the University of Chicago.
• Kim Luckey is policy director. She previously served as director of government affairs for Tew Cardenas LLP and, before that, as a legislative assistant for a member of Congress.
• Teresa Kurtenbach is the northwest regional manager for Opportunity Returns. She previously served as communications manager for the Illinois Department of Healthcare and Family Services.
• Jeff Polsean is the Opportunity Returns regional manager for northern Illinois. He previously served as regional administrator for human capital development for the Illinois Department of Human Services.
• Sam Sandoval is now deputy general counsel. He previously served in the state procurement office for the Department of Revenue.

AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES
• Paris Ervin, former reporter for WICS News Channel 20 in Springfield, is a spokeswoman for the departments of Agriculture and Natural Resources. She replaces Marcelyn Love, who joined the Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity.

NATURAL HISTORY SURVEY
• Illinois Natural History Survey chief David Thomas will retire February 29.

TREASURER’S OFFICE
• Sara Wojcicki is based in the treasurer’s Statehouse office as deputy communications director for downstate and central Illinois, vacant since Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias took office. Wojcicki was a reporter and anchor for WICS News Channel 20 and most recently covered the Statehouse.

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Another Whack at NIU Pres' and Police Chief's Friday Statements

Saturday I repeated a bit of what NIU's president and police chief said at their morning after the massacre press conference:

The president of Northern Illinois University is “pleased at the professionalism of the response.”

“We did everything we could.”

The campus police chief said, “...was not anything we could have done differently...”

I caught some heat for my criticism of these NIU officials praising themselves for succeeding in process (notifying students quickly, getting to the murder room quickly), while ignoring that they failed in their goal to prevent their students from being killed by a satanically tattooed former student, off his Prozac, it turns out.

Finally reading Sunday's Chicago Sun-Times Monday, I see columnist Neil Steinberg and I are in agreement...at least on the “crowing about how competent they are.”

”...watching a parade of officials over and over praise their own response, emphasizing how extremely proud they are of themselves and their organizations, cite what a good job everybody did—there's something unseemly about it.

“With six dead students and more gravely injured, perhaps they should save the infomercial for another day....”

The Steinberg column may be enlarged by clicking on it.

Posted first at McHenry County Blog, where you know what my answer would be.

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Gov Considering Fees for State Parks

Lee Enterprise's Kurt Erickson is reporting that Gov. Rod Blagojevich may push entry fees for state parks in Wednesday's budget address.

Although the final touches are still being made to the governor’s latest spending proposal, officials acknowledge they’ve considered imposing entrance fees at state parks as a way to balance the budget in tough financial times.

Details of what those fees might be were not available Monday and it’s not clear whether they would affect users of all of the state’s more than 100 state parks, forests and natural areas, most of which are located in downstate Illinois.

That may not actually be a bad thing, depending on the details.

Our system of state parks and historic sites are in crisis. Staffing levels at the various sites are at the lowest levels in decades. The Historic Sites Division of the Illinois Historic Preservation Agency has lost around 40 percent of its staff in the last six or seven years. A number of sites are simply mothballed and barricaded off from the public.

I understand the desire of keeping free admissions so that everyone can participate regardless of income, but it's becoming increasingly clear that free access equals no access when there's no money.

In Southern Illinois in the counties along the Ohio River there are five IHPA sites and absolutely no state employees.

The Department of Natural Resources faces similar struggles with state parks though not as severe.

Like the current proposals from the U.S. Forest Service for fees on the Shawnee National Forest it's not the overall concept that's worrisome, it will be in the details.

I made this argument a decade ago and have repeated it ever since now through three governors: It's ridiculous to take a site such as the Old Slave House (which was once privately operated with admissions) and keep it closed because there's no money for staffing yet while there's enough interest to draw large crowds that would pay to enter the facility.

The same admission price wouldn't work for all sites. A market driven approach based on interest and operating costs much like California's approach should be used. There it costs much more to visit major sites such as the 115-room Hearst Castle ($20 to $30 for adults depending on the tour and the season) than it does to visit the Gold Rush museum at Sutter's Fort historic site ($4 for adults).

In Illinois there could be one price for Lincoln sites in Springfield, or one ticket for parks and sites in other tightly knit areas.

If the governor moves forward with this it's also time to look at merging the Historic Sites Division of IHPA with the Division of Land Management in DNR as well as the state museums into one site-based agency.

This may be brought about due to budgetary constraints, but there's larger problems out there that could be solved at this time if a big picture approach was taken.

Maybe we'll be surprised Wednesday. I just hope the issues of parks and historic sites will finally be addressed.

Cross posted on the Illinois History blog at IllinoisHistory.com and the Williamson County Tourism News blog.

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Phyliss Schlafly at DePaul on Tuesday

Conservative icon, and onetime Illinois Congressional candidate, Phyllis Shlafly will be speaking at DePaul University on Tuesday. Little Marathon Pundit has a 4:00pm doctor's check up in Glenview, after that's over, I'm heading down to DePaul's Lincoln Park campus to listen in.

Mrs. Schlafly is best known for her leadership of the Eagle Forum, and of course, her successful opposition to the Equal Rights Amendment in the 1970s and 1980s.

The event begins at 7:00pm, and will be held at the Cortelyou Commons is located at 2342 N. Fremont Street, on Chicago's North Side.

After the presentation, Schlafly will sign copies of her books, and she's written a lot of them, that will be available for purchase.

Schafly's appearance is courtesy of the DePaul Conservative Alliance, and coincides with the annual performance at DePaul (this is getting real old) of "The Vagina Monologues."

To comment on this post, or join in with the liberals heckling me, please visit Marathon Pundit.

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Grand Old Partisan: Setting the Obama Record Straight

Earlier this week, Grand Old Partisan issued what I'm sure is to be a continued party of the Clinton-McCain attacks on Barack Obama: "Where's the beef?"

GOP charged that Obama was all talk, no action on education, health care, transportation and government reform.

Before I respond, let me offer a counter challenge to GOP: What have Hillary Clinton and John McCain ACCOMPLISHED to improve education, health care, transportation and government ethics?

OBAMA ON EDUCATION:

- SB 19 (LAW) enacted school reforms backed by Mayor Daley

- SB 533 (law) expanded teacher training;

- SB 903 (LAW) expanded early childhood education;

- SB 1369 (LAW) created Illinois' first statewide capital needs assessment for schools;

ON HEALTH CARE:

- HB 2268 (LAW) Created the Health Care Justice Act, creating a bipartisan committee of experts to develop a universal health care plan for Illinois;

- SB 59 (LAW) created safety report cards for hospitals;

- SB 130 (LAW) Extended the children's health insurance program;

- SB 263 (LAW) HIV counselling and testing for pregnant women;

- SB 989 (LAW) expand health coverage for the developmentally disabled;

- SB 1417 (LAW) require insurance companies to cover colorectal cancer;

- SB 1418 (LAW) banned the sale of diet pill ephedra, linked to deaths in IL;

- HB 6 (LAW) expanded disaster preparedness programs to include hospitals and first responders;

ON TRANSPORTATION

- SB 1408 (LAW) Bipartisan measure to expand tranportation programs in Illinois;

- SB 46 (LAW) Extended tax credits for bio-fuels;

ON GOVERNMENT REFORM:

- SB 15 (LAW) Required videotaping of homocide interrogations;

- SB 30 (LAW) Cracked down on racial profiling by police;

- SB 1586 (LAW) Strengthened IL Open Meetings Act;

- SB 702 (LAW) Banned solicitation of state employees for campaign contributions, created the IL Inspector General's Office, and made other sweeping changes;

- SB 706 (LAW) Creates an Inspector General's office for the IL SOS to investigate corruption;

GOP uses the same-old attacks that have always been used against advocates of campaign finance reform. George Ryan used them very effectively against Glenn Poshard.

The argument goes something like this: Barack Obama says that Hillary Clinton has raised more money from lobbyists and PACs than any candidate, Democrat or Republican. But Barack Obama used to take money from lobbyists and PACs, so if Hillary Clinton is doing something wrong now, Barack Obama must have been doing something wrong then.

Well, as a State Senator, Obama did raise $93,000 in contributions of more than $1,000. The largest was $10,000 from Gold Coast philanthropist Abby O'Neil.

But he raised $379,000 from donors giving $150 to $1,000 (77%).

Given Illinois "Wild West" campaign finance laws, that's not too shabby.

Compare that to Illinois House GOP Leader Tom Cross:

Contributions of more than $1,000: $5.5 million (66%)

Contributions of $150 to $1,000: $2.2 million (33%)

Or Tom Cross' #2 man, Brent Hassert:

More than $1000: $806,000 (45%)

$150 to $1,000: $1 million (55%)

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You've been Sinclaired

Over the weekend, the Internet Death Eaters swarmed over Larry Sinclair, adopting him as their Messiah.

Larry, an admitted former drug abuser, alleges that he engaged in felonious activity with Barack Obama back in 1999.

Frustrated that the traditional media ignored his fairy tale, Larry uploaded his accusations to You Tube, although it might have been more appropriate for You Porn.

While the Death Eaters continued to push and prod this non-existent sex scandal, WhiteHouse.com offered Larry $10,000.00 to take a polygraph regarding his allegations—Larry, who apparently lives in HUD assisted housing, quickly accepted.

The holes in Sinclair’s story are too numerous to list. The irony is that Larry may actually believe the encounter happened—but that does not make it true.

While the main stream media has rightly ignore this feckless story, the Death Eaters are quietly pushing this crap to every Democratic Super Delegate on the planet

Although Sinclair’s myth is not enough for Obama's Super Delegates to switch allegiance to Clinton, the salaciousness may be enough to give Clinton's Super Delegates pause in switching allegiance to Obama.

And with the nomination hanging by a chad, that pause is quite damaging to Obama.

Sadly, based upon Sinclair’s one minute and forty-two second “confession”, a new definition of poli-sleaziness may have been born:

Sinclaired, to be, verb: A politically motivated, false and malicious statement posted on the Internet to prevent Super Delegates from changing their allegiance.

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Sneaking Up On the Outside: It's Con-Con 2008

If you thought the 2008 presidential election, certain to have at least one candidate with strong Illinois, was the most important issue facing our state in 2008 -- you were wrong. Despite the fact that Hillary Clinton was born here, and Barack Obama lives here and represents us, the presidential election is not the important event on our calendar.

And if you thought the recently re-convened Illinois General Assembly with all of its antics and sideshows and false promises and lawsuits was the most important issue, you'd be wrong again. (You might be amused and frustrated but you'd be wrong).

What is the most important event on the 2008 Illinois calendar is one that few people (if a recent poll can be believed) are aware of: the statewide referendum asking Illinois residents if a convention ought to be called in 2009 to re-write the Illinois Constitution.

Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton and Dick Durbin and Steve Sauerberg (he's the Republican running against Durbin) aren't likely to talk about the con-con referendum, even though it could have a major impact on their state (of former state, in the case of the Illinois => Arkansas => New York resident. John McCain -- almost certain to be the Republican candidate for President -- gets a pass on this one as he's never had a strong (or residential) connection to Illinois. (Someone will correct that quickly if it's in error).

The reason why the constitutional convention (con-con) referendum is so important is that if approved, the entire Illinois Constitution could be re-written and some of the looney forces in Illinois in 2008 could be the delegates who write a new constitution.

True, a new constitution would have to be approved by voters in a statewide referendum but those same voters elected the current government leaders in our state and it's not certain that they can be trusted. Some of them can, but certainly not all.

The con-con referendum will be on the ballot in November because the current Illinois Constitution requires that voters have the opportunity to call a convention every 20 years. This is the year.

In the shadow of presidential politics and the other news-grabbing events in Illinois, it's not surprising that few Illinois voters are aware that the referendum is on the ballot. A recent (very current) statewide poll shows that fewer than 10 percent of Illinois voters were aware of the upcoming referendum.

While that is not surprising, it's a dangerous thought because it means that 90 percent of the voters could be influenced one way or another on the issue between now and November. If voters are convinced that things aren't so good in Illinois (THEY'RE NOT!), they could be convinced that the way to fix the problem is with a new Constitution (IT'S NOT!) instead of electing better representatives and leaders.

There is likely to be a lot written about the con-con referendum and early indications are that some very diverse groups of interests are opposed to the con-con call. It's too early to call them a "coalition" because many are REALLY diverse -- but maybe they'll all work together for the good of the state.

One of the leaders in the early "information" stage is the Illinois Business Roundtable.

(Full Disclosure: IBRT is a member of the Illinois Civil Justice League and was, in fact, the founder of the ICJL).

IBRT is releasing a comprehensive research paper on Con-Con today. While it is the first of many analyses of the past, present and future of the Illinois Constitution, it is worth a look because it includes a thorough history of previous Illinois constitutions and amendments to the constitution and previous referenda.

You Can Find It Here. (.pdf)

-- Ed Murnane
Illinois Civil Justice League
February 18, 2008

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NIU and taxes

Shooting lingers over Capitol
By Patrick O’Brien
Thursday’s shooting rampage at Northern Illinois University in DeKalb cast a pall over the Statehouse today. Legislative action led off with condolences and a moment of silence on the House floor. (The Senate was not in session today.)

A group of lawmakers also received a private briefing by Michael Chamness,
chairman of the Illinois Terrorism Task Force and adviser to the Illinois Emergency Management Agency. Chamness praised the efforts of university officials and first responders in DeKalb, saying that an alert about the shootings was issued through text messages and other means less than 20 minutes after the incident occurred. “From our standpoint, NIU did everything correct,” he said.

Comparisons between Virginia Tech and NIU were inevitable. Chamness said reports confirm it took two hours for word of the shooting to reach students at last year’s Virginia Tech shootings. In the case of NIU, students were given specific instructions shortly after the incident to stay away from the area of campus where the shootings occurred.

Chamness said it’s unlikely the DeKalb shootings could have been prevented. “There didn’t seem to be the flags there were at Virginia Tech” that may have alerted authorities.

And Illinois state universities learned from the Virginia Tech tragedy through training in school safety. NIU Police Chief Donald Grady and officials from 95 other state schools attended.

Further, a statewide Campus Safety Task Force is conducting a mental health survey to identify potential problem individuals, but there’s no clear-cut answer about how to prevent such incidents, Chamness said. The task force’s report, including the study, will be available April 1.

Tax talk
By Bethany Jaeger
Anticipate a battle between ideas for raising revenue and for stimulating the economy. There’s more talk about Gov. Rod Blagojevich seeking to garner revenue through a so-called carbon tax, which the Illinois Chamber of Commerce already is prepared to oppose if it appears in his annual budget address February 20. At the same time, even typical proponents of tax credits say the state should avoid anything that could further cut into a revenue shortfall.

If the governor does propose a form of tax on carbon dioxide emissions, expect vocal opposition from the agribusiness and coal industries. We’ll have more on the carbon tax later if it is indeed proposed. The chamber suggests http://www.carbontax.org/ to learn more in the meantime.

In addition, the Taxpayers’ Federation of Illinois said it will oppose all legislative proposals for tax credits, exemptions and deductions this year. “There’s no money,” said David Eldridge, legislative director for the group and former assistant counsel to House Speaker Michael Madigan.

Eldridge testified before a House Revenue Committee Friday and said the state faces a deficit ranging from $600 million to $750 million. The state needs all the revenue it can get for the upcoming fiscal year (that starts July 1). (See our previous blog for background.)

To generate money, the federation repeats an earlier position that it could support an increase in the personal income tax by 1 percent. The Commercial Club of Chicago’s Civic Committee recommended that last year, and increasing the rate from 3 percent to 4 percent already is proposed in a measure sponsored by Rep. Annazette Collins, a Chicago Democrat.

Rep. Frank Mautino, a Spring Valley Democrat and Revenue Committee member, said the federation’s statement is significant given the timing. “Normally, the members of the Taxpayers’ Federation are the large manufacturers who would be looking for the tax credits. But given the Chicago Civic Committee’s report from last year — and many of their members are members of the Taxpayers’ Federation — they came out in favor of an income tax with a corresponding corporate income tax increase.”

Rep. Bob Biggins, an Elmhurst Republican and committee member, said it’s a reasonable position, even for lawmakers such as him who like to propose tax cuts. A former township assessor, he said local governments saw enormous revenue growth as property values increased during the past 30 years. Now that property values are flat, particularly in the Chicago area, local governments aren’t collecting as much money.

“There’s a natural stoppage of increases in revenue from the real estate being flat to the economy in the state — people aren’t spending as much. We’re not going to have enough money. Let’s be prudent here, and let’s not make it worse.”

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Change, like charity, begins at home

“We are the ones we’ve been waiting for. We are the change that we seek.”

On the night that Barack Obama spoke those words, February 5, 2008, he had been a United States Senator for a little more than 3 years. Prior to that, and perhaps more importantly, he had been an Illinois State Senator for just shy of 8 years. That’s a combined total of 11 years that Mr. Obama has been an elected official. The question one should ask, now that he is posed to become his party’s national standard bearer and a finalist for the world’s most powerful office, is: why has he waited until now to seek change?

He says that he doesn’t “want to send another generation of American children to failing schools.” But can anyone cite a significant proposal he championed to improve Illinois schools?

He claims to have a healthcare plan that will cover every American. Where was his plan to cover every Illinoisan?

He promises to “make strengthening our transportation systems, including our roads and bridges, a top priority.” But when Governor Blagojevich effectively killed the Illinois FIRST program, what were Obama’s priorities?

He boasts that lobbyists have not funded his Presidential campaign, and thus will not set the agenda of his administration. But what about his previous 4 campaigns? Did all the lobbyist money he took in them influence his votes in Springfield and Washington?

Chicago’s transportation and education systems are broken, and broke. And yet Mr. Obama endorsed the man who presided over them for the past 2 decades.

Cook County’s patronage system is an crushing burden on its residents. And yet Mr. Obama campaigned for the scion of its reigning family.

Pundits and political observers marvel at how Mr. Obama managed to escape Springfield without any serious ethical baggage. But such amazement is an explicit recognition of our state’s embarrassing culture of corruption – a culture that went wholly unchallenged by the man who now seeks to change Washington.

The truth is, the only real change that Mr. Obama has brought to either Illinois or Washington is the partisan balance of our state’s U.S. Senate representation. How ironic that he might win the White House by claiming the legacy of the man he replaced.

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Middle East online: Auchi's win win for Chicago

British tycoon remains bullish on Chicago development
Auchi: Riverside Park project to create 10,000 new construction jobs; it is a win-win for Chicago.

When Rezko contacted him about a potential land deal in one of America’s greatest cities, Auchi says the idea piqued his interest.

Auchi was impressed by Rezko who, in 2004, appeared to have the confidence of the business and public leadership in Illinois. During Auchi’s brief visit to Chicago, Rezko introduced him to prominent business leaders and elected officials as Auchi familiarized himself with the marketplace first-hand.

[***]

In addition to his success as a global businessman, Auchi is widely lauded as a distinguished civic and charitable leader. In fact, when traveling to any given country, he is typically invited to meet the head of state. As a result, he was surprised that some in the press took issue that he had met with the Illinois governor during his 2004 visit to the United States.

Darn Rezko suckers everybody, even an Iraqi Donald Trump.

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Stormy start to session

A week before Gov. Rod Blagojevich's annual budget address, the state's economy already casts a cloud over the Statehouse.

Amid national news that a full-blown recession is looming, President George W. Bush signed an economic stimulus package. It's supposed to send checks in late spring and summer to singles who made less than $75,000 and couples who earned less than $150,000 in 2007. (People qualify by filing their federal income taxes.)

If the national economy tanks, Illinois won't be far behind. That's the message of a report requested by the state General Assembly's Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability. The agency's January briefing says, “Illinois will most certainly succumb if the economy sinks into a recession - if it has not done so already.”

Moody's Economy.com also said in a report for the commission that the odds of a recession increased from 40 percent to 60 percent last month.

Those reports couple with the Illinois comptroller's recent warning that state government is unprepared for a recession. His office released a report to the General Assembly. In his Statehouse office Wednesday, Comptroller Dan Hynes said, “The bottom line is that the state of Illinois, unlike many other states, has not taken advantage of our five years of economic growth. And now as we face a recession, our financial problems are daunting.”

He said the state accumulated “tremendous revenue growth” of $5.5 billion during the past five years. But lawmakers spent it on new programs rather than putting it toward compounding, long-term obligations. While the state devoted more money to pensions, Medicaid, health care, higher education and general education in that time, Hynes said it hasn't necessarily made a difference or addressed a structural deficit that the Blagojevich Administration often misrepresents.

“Each year, the governor has made his budget presentation and has declared that the deficit has been eliminated -- each and every year. And each and every year, that has been proven untrue when the final numbers come out. And that's a problem in and of itself, but it's especially problematic when the economy slows down," Hynes said. (For more information about whether the budget is balanced, see Charlie Wheeler's Illinois Issues column about the governor's 2006 budget address.)

Stormy Smoke Free Illinois debate
Rep. Bill Black, a Danville Republican and vocal GOP leader, blew his top in a House committee, later calling the chairwoman an “idiot” for not acting on her own and instead relying on behind-the-scenes staffers to tell her what to do.

Black threw a tantrum because the committee chair didn't call for his amendment to be attached to the Smoke Free Illinois Act, which went into effect January 1 but doesn't have all rules in place. Committee chairwoman Rep. Karen May of Highland Park said leadership told her that other amendments weren't ready and that they're expected to be called for debate next week.

This could happen a lot this session. New measures will have extra amendments that spell out the rules for implementing them. That's a direct shot at the governor, who publicly stated that the Joint Committee on Administrative Rules - which reviews such rules - doesn't matter. Blagojevich's office previously suggested the bipartisan legislative panel plays only an advisory role after the panel denied his rules for expanding health care to more low- and middle-income adults.

Black's measure, by the way, would change wording in the definition of private clubs. It would allow veterans' halls to vote on whether they want to allow smoking in their halls.

That's just one proposed exemption. A more sweeping measure sponsored by Rep. Harry Ramey, a Carol Stream Republican, would allow smoking in bars, bowling alleys, veterans' halls, strip clubs and casinos. In other words, restaurants would be one of the only mandated smoke-free facilities. Some Illinois veterans testified at the House committee. One urged lawmakers to retain the ban on smoking in all public places for the sake of public health. Another urged them to let veterans, many of whom started smoking while serving in World War II and Vietnam, smoke in their own halls.

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New perspective on Schock's link to the NRCC scandal

A GOP friend with experience helping run a Congressional campaign doubts very much that the Aaron Schock 18th District campaign -- or any Congressional candidate -- benefited from any of the financial irregularities being investigated at the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Last week, the Schock campaign (as well as other candidates) fired its campaign treasurer Christopher J Ward after news reports identified him as the central figure in an investigation into irregularities at the NRCC.

Steve Schearer told the press that he not only never met Ward (he was hired on his reputation alone), Ward never touched the money that had been donated to Schock.

I found that odd, and speculated that Shearer was trying to establish plausible deniability should the scandal reach the Schock campaign.

I just got off the phone with a GOP friend. This person was deeply involved at a high level in different GOP Congressional campaign during a previous election cycle . This campaign also hired Ward. While Ward was on record as their campaign treasurer, Ward never met high ranking campaign officials, nor did he have any access to the funds. Ward was sent copies of checks and invoices and bills, then used them to compile financial reports that were electronically fired with the Federal Election Commission. Ward charged them $2,000 quarterly.

Why hire Ward, a former NRCC staffer who worked as a vendor out of NRCC offices? My source says that most people just do not realize how "painful" the FEC financial reporting process is. He doubts there is anyone in Peoria who could do it.

Because of Ward's lack of access to that campaign's funds, my source is not worried that they lost any money, or that money was funneled into that campaign. The source says it's foolish to even try, because not only is the FEC ruthless in demanding documentation, the FEC reports are poured over by the local and national media looking for discrepancies.

My two cents: Several days ago, I thought this story had legs and would turn into an investigation into the candidates whose campaigns hired ward. After this conversation, Shearer's statements seem much more plausible to me.

Nevertheless, I must remind myself of something that is true of people who break the rules: They think they can get away with it. I wouldn't want to tangle with the FEC. But hubris is a common trait among those who dabble in politics.

I don't think this will go far beyond Ward. But you never know.

Cross posted to Peoria Pundit.

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What's wrong with Super-Delegates?

Perhaps it is because I am a political junkie who finds fascinating the mechanics of government, but I really don’t understand why people are getting all bent out of shape about the concept of un-pledged delegates making the final decision for the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee.

“It’s unfair.” “It ignores the will of the people.” “It sounds like a Communist/Fascist/(insert immoral political philosophy of your choice here) plot.”

“It's Un-American.”

Those are the thoughts being expressed by the Professional Political Pontificators these days about the “super-delegates” who may wind up casting the final votes and deciding whether Barack Obama or Hillary R. Clinton will be the Democrat who gets to tangle with likely GOP nominee John McCain come the Nov. 4 general election.

Those people (many of whom are professional pundits who prostitute their viewpoints for money) want to think it is wrong for several classifications of delegates to be included this year in Denver at the Democratic National Convention.

While most of those delegates were either allocated to supporters of whichever candidate won the popular vote in each congressional district or which candidate took the popular vote across the state, some delegates have a different status.

The delegates who were allocated based on elections results are obligated to go to the nominating convention and support (at least initially) the candidate for whom they declared support early on.

When former Illinois Attorney General and state Comptroller Roland Burris (one of the delegates I voted for in a district that solidly went for Obama) travels to Denver, he is required to remain true to Barack. Only if the convention turns into a free-for-all with no candidate being able to take a majority would he be allowed to consider changing his mind.

Then, there are the un-pledged delegates, also known as the “super-delegates.” They do not have to declare a preference, and they can vote at the nominating convention for whichever candidate they choose.

The triple-P’s of the world would have you think that all these “super-delegates” are craven individuals who are going to ignore the will of the people in their respective states and pick a presidential nominee based on which one is willing to offer them personally the best perks.

They also state these “super-delegates” are, “elected by no one” and are, “accountable to nobody.” They want to believe this is the equivalent of the days of old when Tammany Hall and Chicago Machine politicos would cut political deals that did not have the interests of the public in mind.

I don’t buy it.

For one thing, it is not true that the “super delegates” are un-elected. In reality, they are elected government officials – they just weren’t elected specifically to be “super-delegates.”

In each of the 50 states, the “super-delegates” include every member of Congress (including the two senators). Also included are the governors and other high-ranking state officials. There also are a few slots in each state that are filled at the last minute, and party officials usually pick people who are reliable when it comes to voting along with the mood of the political party.

In Illinois, there are 35 super-delegate slots among the delegates at the convention. Of those, 32 are set and the other three will be filled some time in May.

Some choices are likely to be made based on the desires of the Democratic Party to have a convention of presidential nominators that bears some resemblance to the overall racial and ethnic makeup of the United States of America. There also are party rules that require the delegations from each state to consist of an equal number of women and men.

The bottom line is that for those of us from Illinois, the Democratic “super-delegates” are going to be people like Sen. Richard Durbin, Gov. Rod Blagojevich, Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan, D-Chicago, and Rep. Rahm Emanuel, D-Ill.

I expect Mayor Richard M. Daley also will be a “super-delegate,” unless Rich decides he doesn’t feel like spending a week in Denver this summer. In which case, he will probably arrange for one of his brothers (former Commerce Secretary William or Cook County Board member John) to fill the slot.

These people were elected to their positions of influence in large part because they know how to reflect the moods of the people who live in their respective districts. If they really behave in a manner as reprehensible as the triple-P commentators would have us believe, we can always take it out on them come Election Day.

Would Sen. Durbin (who probably is a shoo-in for re-election to his third term in the U.S. Senate) really be willing to risk the wrath of the voter and give his token Republican opponent a legitimate campaign issue to use against him? Does Blagojevich want to stir up the wrath of Democrats even more than he already has by cutting a sleazy presidential deal?

There is another factor to consider.

The “super-delegate” issue only comes into play if the regularly chosen delegates who are publicly bound to a specific candidate cannot reach a decision on their own as to who the presidential nominee should be.

The critics would have you think that the “will of the people” was being ignored by the super-delegates. In reality, the “will” is uncertainty. If the will of the people was as strong for one candidate as these pundits want us to believe, then one of the candidates would wind up with a majority of the elected delegates.

There would be no need for the next step of “super-delegates,” whose purpose would be to serve as a tiebreaker mechanism used by the political party if the majority of declared delegates become hopelessly deadlocked and cannot choose a candidate.

Insofar as political mechanisms are concerned, “super-delegates” sounds to me like a reasonable way to break ties. At least those individuals have to put themselves on the record, and their political legacies (always a priority with elected officials) would be at stake if they truly voted for someone the locals hated.

I always hate it when government matters are decided on something that is the equivalent of a coin toss. For those who think I’m exaggerating, all too many decisions with great effects on public policy were made by dumb luck.

Had then-Illinois Secretary of State George H. Ryan reached into the antique glass bowl once used by Abraham Lincoln and picked out the name of a Democrat in 1991, Republicans likely NEVER would have gained control of the state Legislature in the 1990s.

But Ryan picked out the Republican name, and the commission that drew political boundaries for the decade used their influence to favor their political party. Likewise, Democrats gained control in the 1980s and in the current decade because that same random drawing ended in their favor.

Would you really want the Democratic Party’s nominee being chosen by putting the names of Obama and Clinton into a hat (perhaps one once worn by Franklin D. Roosevelt), and picking one out at random?

What I find ironic is that both Clinton and Obama (in their roles as U.S. senators from New York and Illinois respectively) are “super-delegates” themselves. Both will get the chance in Denver to personally try to sway their “super-delegate” colleagues over to their side. It’s not like either one of them will be at a disadvantage due to access.

Besides, the concept of political party officials getting together to decide who should represent their party for president is a good thing, particularly if the convention turns into a debate.

The last thing that a healthy Democracy needs is a nominating convention that is a pre-set schedule of events intended to be a candidate coronation or an over-glorified political pep rally.

Regardless of the celebration that one campaign will do at convention’s end, the other side will wind up the loser. Then, the winner has to reach out to the losing faction and remind them of the issues they have in common (which in the case of Obama and Clinton is most everything). If the winning Democrat can’t do that, then we the people of the United States of America get President McCain.

It will be messy to watch the politicos at work while they figure out whether we are better off with Obama or Clinton at the top of the ballot. But the “mess” IS Democracy at work.

Democracy is often rambunctious and raucous. It is not neat and pretty. As far as I’m concerned, anybody who would want “neat and pretty” politics is asking for something that is really and truly Un-American.

-30-

Originally posted at www.ChicagoArgus.blogspot.com

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Democratic Party Rules on indicted super delegates

Anyone know what the rules are for super delegates under indictments at the convention?

I understand they might be asked to contact Illinois for McCain's Jim Durkin to volunteer for this opening.

Per yesterday's JG-TC online on the now a McCain delegate Kirk Dillard's ads for Obama,

Last summer, McCain cracked, "Maybe we'll ask (Dillard) to cut a spot for us, although I don't have quite as much money as Sen. Obama does."

McCain's Illinois campaign chief, state Rep. Jim Durkin, R-Western Springs, said more recently he won't be cutting commercials with Dillard "anytime soon."

"I think at the appropriate time, I'll find a suitable Democrat to make suitable comments about Sen. McCain," he said. "Democrats for McCain, I am going to work on that."

Democrats for McCain...I think that's how Democrats will try to unload the indicted....good luck with that.

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Laski on Mayor Daley: a paranoid politician

Laski's convinced me to buy,

Laski described Daley as a "paranoid," one-way-street of a politician who "blows hot and cold" with other elected officials and is "always thinking somebody's out to get him, somebody's out to run against him."

"He never trusted anybody," the clerk said.

Mayoral press secretary Jacquelyn Heard countered:

"What is the motivation for saying these things now? And where is the proof?" She added, "I know it takes intrigue, scandal and/or controversy to sell books. And I wholeheartedly believe that's what Mr. Laski is trying to do."

Laski, 54, pleaded guilty in 2006 to accepting $48,000 in bribes in exchange for steering Hired Truck business to lifelong friend Mike Jones. He also admitted that he coached a witness to lie to a grand jury. Laski's self-published book is titled My Fall From Grace: City Hall to Prison Walls.

Mark Pera should have been handing out advanced copies instead of advocating Fed Funds for embryonic stem cell research.

The former clerk also implicated former Congressman Bill Lipinski, Laski's mentor-turned-nemesis, even more deeply in the ghost payrolling that went on during Laski's days as 23rd Ward alderman.

Laski said he hired a handful of employees at the congressmen's direction who did remodeling work at Lipinski's home and congressional office.

Also Levois's earlier post: Mayor Daley, Personal Buffer, Illegal Activities

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Plausibility Deniability for Schock in the growing NRCC scandal?

I'm trying to not be incredulous here. I suppose it's possible. It just seems damn reckless to me. But Aaron Schock's campaign manager Steve Shearer tells the State Journal-Register's Bernie Schoenburg that he's never met the man they hired as campaign treasurer. This is the same guy who is considered a central figure into a federal investigation into the finances into the National Republican Congressional Committee:

Steve Shearer, campaign manager for Schock, said the campaign replaced Christopher J. Ward as soon as officials heard of the questions. A Schock staffer, Rachel Honegger, was named the new treasurer, Shearer said.

Shearer said he has never met Ward, but Ward was a long-time comptroller of the NRCC, which helps GOP candidates for the U.S. House nationwide. Ward's association with that group, and the fact that he has been associated with perhaps more than 100 House and Senate campaigns nationwide, indicated he had impeccable credentials, Shearer said.

It's a good breaking news story, and by the time most people read this post, a full version might be up at the SJ-R Website.

The gist of the story is that the Ward fellow never touched Schock's campaign money, just made sure the campaign was in compliance with federal laws. Or so Shearer says now.

Here are my observations:

• The purpose of the NRCC is to make sure Republicans get elected to Congress, and once they get there, stay there. Making sure they have huge campaign war chests is one way they do that.


• If there were any financial shenanigans, they were shenanigans designed put money into he hands of Congressional candidates.


• Aaron Schock is a Congressional candidate.


• The "central figure" in this alleged attempt to illegally put money into the hands of Congressional candidates was, until recently, employed by Aaron Schock's campaign.


• Schock outspent and outraised his two primary opponents in the 18th District race, one of whom is a millionaire and one of whom is a professional fundraiser.

You do the math.

And I'll make this observation, too. Shearer is a master of finding the line between what is legal and what is not. He comes very close, and according to come, he crosses it on occasion, then feigns innocence when called on it. This was true of Shearer back when he was running Schock's state house campaign as it is the Congressional campaign. Look at his early attempt to illegally operate out of Peoria County Republican Party offices during the early weeks of the campaign.

The one guy who Shearer hired as campaign treasurer just happens to be the central figure in s financial scandal at the NRCC. And when news hits the paper, Shearer says he never met the guy, and he never touched the money anyway.

I'm just not buying it.

Remember, Nixon never met the Watergate plumbers. He wouldn't know who they were had they met him on the street.

And don't waste your time sending me emails defending Steve Shearer's honor. This is a man who had no problems working for Jerry Weller, the 11th District Republican who is figuratively and literally in bed with Central American genocidal dictators. Being involved in some financial slight of hand would be a step up on the morality scale.

Cross posted to Peoria Pundit.

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Equal Time

In the interest of being fair and balanced, since I posted the Barack video, I've been asked to post the unofficial McCain version of the "Yes We Can" video. Take a look, you won't be disappointed. Well, you might be. Who knows?

To see the video, visit Open House

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Foster's decade over Iraqi Kurdistan

From Foster's current position on Iraq,

The deep religious conflicts in Iraq have led many to believe that the most promising strategy for the Iraqis is to partition their country into separate religious and tribal enclaves. Should the Iraqis embrace this strategy of separating the religious groups, the U.S. could play a supportive role - much as the American lead NATO effort did successfully in Bosnia, or the "no-fly zone" that protected the Kurds for the decade [Baar's emphasis] between Gulf Wars . Under all circumstances, American ground forces must begin the process of coming home as soon as possible.

Except for the Air Force over Kurdistan I guess, but go ahead and read the full position though, and compare it with this exchange between Laesch and Foster during the election (HT Illinois Review)

"'John, you believe wrong. I am fully committed to getting our troops out of Iraq, and I am fully committed to using the power of the purse intelligently to accomplish it. And the way you do it is to put a bill on President Bush's desk, the next time a supplemental comes through, would have explicit, rifle-shot language, that says, 'these, this money is not to be used for ongoing combat operations, patrolling the street of Iraq, getting our kids blown up, day in and day out.' You can attach very specific language to an appropriations bill, and we should do it. And we certainly, that will be what I vote for, and I will support, when I am in Congress four months from now.' [1]

[1] Kane County Democrat Forum, October 23, 2007. Available at: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoFaP_iUugE

Compare the positions, then and now, and I think you'll find Foster, as Carl Davidson wrote of Barack O'Bomb 'em: a triangulator par excellence.

Colonel Morgenthaler wrote,

The men who did terrible things to the Kuwaitis, especially the Kuwaiti women are very similar to the men we are fighting. As people get upset about Abu Ghraib, one thing that should never be forgotten: these are men who have murdered Americans and would continue to murder Americans if given the opportunity.

I'm not convinced the men abused at Abu Ghraib were terrorists, but I'm convinced we fight a foe in Iraq who will continue to murder Americans if given the opportunity.

Bill Poscoe's quoted over at IR condemning the early Foster position for raising the white flag just as General Petraeus's new strategy is working.

Triangulation is worse than raising the white flag though. If the war is the wrong stratgy, the only sane solution is get out now. That's an honorable stand.

But if Morgenthaler right, and we face a murderous foe committed to our destruction, than too triangulate as Foster does now, is not worthy of an America at war. It plays politics about an enemy we can't redeploy from to safety behind our shores..

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RezkoWatch: Terrorist donations to Obama campaign?

Great work again by RezkoWatch's B Merry:

Did former Weather Undeground Terrorist William Ayers, pictured in the 1960s, donate to the Obama campaign?

From Peter Hitchens in the Daily Mail:

It suggests very bad judgment, as do strong, persistent suggestions that Obama also accepted quite small contributions from extreme Left-wing veterans of the terrorist Weather Underground now living in Chicago.

His list of contributions shows one for $200 from a certain William Ayers. Can this possibly be the same William Ayers, now a Chicago professor, who used to plant bombs in the Seventies and has said: "I don't regret setting bombs. I feel we didn't do enough"? His partner, Bernardine Dohrn, once "declared war" on the US government.

It wouldn't be surprising. Those (like me) who know the Left-wing codes notice things about Obama that suggest he is far more radical than he would like us to know.

From RezkoWatch:

To be perfectly clear, the $200 campaign contribution cited by Hitchens is yet to be located. Ayers' name does not appear on any of Obama's political action committee reports—Obama for Illinois, Obama for Congress 2000, Obama 2010, or Obama for America—filed with the Federal Election Commission .

Ayers is married to Bernardine Dohrn, also a former Weather Underground terrorist. Both are tenured professors. Dohrn is a law professor (even though she has no license to practice law) at Northwestern University. Ayers is an education professor at the University of Illinois-Chicago.

During his terror salad days, Ayers said this, "Kill all the rich people. ... Bring the revolution home. Kill your parents." Yes, this man is an education professor.

Of the Charles Manson killings, Dohrn emitted this ghastly comment shortly after the crime, "Dig it! First they killed those pigs, then they ate dinner in the same room with them. They even shoved a fork into the victim's stomach! Wild!" And she is a law professor.

RezkoWatch discovers that Obama and the terrorist-twosome have appeared together:

In November 1997, Ayers and Obama participated in a panel at the University of Chicago entitled Should a child ever be called a "super predator?" to debate "the merits of the juvenile justice system".

In April 2002, Ayers, Dohrn, and Obama, then an Illinois state senator, participated together at a conference entitled "Intellectuals: Who Needs Them?" sponsored by The Center for Public Intellectuals and the University of Illinois-Chicago. Ayers and Obama were two of the six members of the "Intellectuals in Times of Crisis" panel.

Ayers, "who in the 1960s was a member of the terrorist group Weatherman and a wanted fugitive for over a decade as a result of the group's bombing campaign," is currently the Board Chairman of the Woods Fund of Chicago and Obama is a former Board member.

Although they've been professors for over a decade, it still angers me that academia opened their arms to these thugs.

That's not all from that blog to report this afternoon:

Thankfully, the RW tipster provided the NYT link as well as information that led to the following:

The RezkoWatch Confidential Tips email inbox brought a chilling surprise posed in the form of a question: Was the Khaleel Ahmed who donated to Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.)'s campaign in 2004 the same Khaleel Ahmed who was arrested in February 2007 with his cousin on terrorism charges?

On June 16, 2004, Khaleel Ahmed, 215 Orchard Avenue, Bensenville, Illinois, contributed $2,000 to Obama for Illinois. This was Ahmed's first and only political contribution.

Additionally, a search for his cousin's name, Zubair Ahmed, found this as well: On June 16, 2004, Zubair Ahmed, 907 Polo Lane, Oak Brook, Illinois, contributed $500 to Obama for Illinois. This likewise was Zubair's first and only political contribution.

More on this pair, from the New York Times:

Two cousins were arrested here Wednesday on charges of conspiring to commit terrorist acts against American military personnel in Iraq, as well as others abroad, in an Islamic holy war against the United States and its allies.

The defendants, Zubair A. Ahmed, 27, and Khaleel Ahmed, 26, were taken into custody at their Chicago homes after a federal grand jury in Cleveland returned a fresh indictment in a pending terrorism case in which three Ohio men are already awaiting trial in Toledo.

The new indictment accuses the two Chicago men of plotting with the Ohioans "to kill or maim persons in locations outside of the United States," including members of the armed forces serving in Iraq.

It says the cousins, both United States citizens, sought training in firearms and countersurveillance from a person with an American military background. The indictment identified that person only as the Trainer. It describes the Trainer as an American citizen who communicated extensively with the three original defendants about paramilitary training but who was not engaged in the conspiracy.

This is not the kind of change that I can believe in.

Related Marathon Pundit posts:

University of Illinois at Chicago's Bill Ayers: Not a jarhead

The Weather Underground and Ward Churchill-UPDATED!
Bernardine Dohrn watch
David Horowitz says you should know about Bernardine Dohrn and William Ayers
Moron Professor Bill Ayers
More on Bill Ayers' wife, Bernadine Dohrn
SDS' 1968 Tragical History Tour
Update on another campus radical: Bill Ayers of the Weather Underground

To comment on this post, please visit Marathon Pundit.

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General Assembly Returns; ICJL's Election Year Agenda:

1. Venue Reform
2. Venue Reform
3. Venue Reform

After the Circus that was the 2007 session of the Illinois General Assembly, it's hard to treat the formal beginning of the 2008 term with much seriousness. After all, neither the ringmaster nor the clowns have changed.

But they return this week for the first of a scheduled 45 days of service to the people of Illinois. With some luck the adults, most notably the Speaker of the House and the Republican leaders in both chambers, will be able to run the show.

The adjournment date of May 29 is, of course, a joke, not to be taken seriously by any of the leaders or members of the General Assembly. Last year had a similar "adjournment" date and the members of the General Assembly kept meeting -- not every day -- throughout the summer and fall and an Illinois citizen would be hard pressed to name one thing they did.

This year -- or was it last year? -- they managed to agree on a funding proposal to bail out the public transportation system in the Chicago area and it apparently is going into effect, but only after the Governor of Illinois insisted that all senior citizens in the state should be able to ride public transportation at no charge.

It's hard to predict what "solutions" they'll find for Illinois problems in 2008, or how long they'll stay in session. This is an Election Year and the entire Illinois House of Representatives and 40 (of 59) Senate seats are on the ballot.

As most incumbents are seeking re-election, there will be a desire to get out of Springfield and get back home as quick as possible to start pressing flesh. The anxiety may be somewhat higher this year because (1) it is a Presidential year, and that always generates greater interest; (2) the Democratic candidate for President (regardless of which) is going to have Illinois ties and thus interest will be higher; and (3) the early Illinois primary (it was last week, if you've been sleeping) has put the whole process in motion already so the juices are flowing.

Some lucky souls (not legislators) are finished with the 2008 Election test already: the 37 candidates for judge who are unopposed in the General Election. If they made it through the primary and there was no opposition, they should plan to stay healthy and begin measuring the windows in their new offices for drapes. (There are some remote exceptions to this free ride for unopposed judicial candidates but they are too remote to spend ink (or band-width) explaining.)

(Note: Not counting retention, 61 judicial positions are on the Illinois ballot in 2008. Only 24 of them involve Democrat vs. Republican candidates in November. The other 37 were determined last week in primary elections. They included one Supreme Court race and three Appellate Court races.)

The election year means there will be a lot of posturing in the General Assembly -- and maybe an opportunity for some causes to turn voter interest into legislative action.

That's our goal: while the current General Assembly remains generally hostile to the cause of civil justice reform, we will continue to pursue a broad reform agenda and we'll attempt to make the cause of civil justice reform an important issue in selected legislative races.

Highest on our list is venue reform. ICJL has introduced and supported venue reform legislation annually for the past six years (HB 1892 and SB 1571 in 2007.

The simple -- it is simple -- reason for this reform is this: lawsuits should be filed in the jurisdiction (the venue) in which it makes sense. That means they should be filed where the wrongdoing took place, or where the injured party resides, or where the offender resides or is based. Period. There are three possibilities and each of them makes sense.

But lawsuits should NOT be filed in a jurisdiction selected by the plaintiffs' attorney based on the attorney's guess of where the plaintiff has the best chance to prevail. This kind of "forum shopping" (and the complicity by legal jurisdictions) has brought scorn upon the legal system in some areas of the country, including several in Illinois.

As Steve Schneider, Midwest vice president for the American Insurance Association indicates in the news item below, AIA "will continue to push for some form of venue reform in Illinois that would help to codify two recent state Supreme Court decisions that clearly recognized out of state cases, involving non-residents, have no business in Illinois' courts."

That's right. Twice within the past four years the Illinois Supreme Court has ruled against forum shopping. One of the rulings came on the same day that the Illinois Civil Justice League released a report, "Litigation Imbalance," and presented it to a hearing of the Illinois Senate Judiciary Committee. It fell, for the most part, on deaf ears. The report pointed out -- and documented -- that there are problems in certain Illinois jurisdictions.

Ironically -- and to their credit -- the jurisdiction in Illinois that has had the worst reputation -- Madison County -- has taken steps to correct the problem within their own borders and limit or reject out of venue lawsuits.

Most of the other 101 jurisdictions in Illinois have not had the same serious problem as Madison or Cook Counties so there is no need for local court systems to enact internal policies to correct problems that don't exist.

But the problem has been widespread enough to call for the General Assembly to enact a law -- such as HB 1892 or SB 1571 -- to make law out of what seems to be common sense.

If the legislators can't figure out what HB 1892 or SB 1571 do, or why, they can consult with the judges in Madison County. They have figured it out.

*

(Note: ICJL's complete legislative agenda will be fully described in coming weeks and is available on our web site, www.ICJL.org.)

-- Ed Murnane
Illinois Civil Justice League
February 11, 2008

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Mayor Daley, Personal Buffer, Illegal Activities

I saw this on Newsalert tonight. From a book by disgraced city clerk James Laski. Here's a brief excerpt from Michael Sneed...

• • Daley schmooze: In his book, Laski claims Daley invited him into his private City Hall conference room and asked if he'd heard "from anybody down the street." -- Hizzoner's reference to the feds -- during a probe of alleged time-sheet fraud at City Hall.

• • The upshot: When Laski said, "No!" Daley offered to give him some advice.

• • Quoth Laski: "He spoke quietly as if we were being bugged. He told me, in a very serious tone of voice, that, in order to survive in this business, I had to have a buffer.

"At that point, he reminded me of Captain Queeg in The Caine Mutiny, when he warned me that everyone would be trying to get me, especially the press.

"He basically told me that I needed someone to protect me, and that where the buck would stop, everything would end there with that person.

"In my opinion, Daley was forever surrounding himself with his own personal buffers.

"Even today, I still hear the Mayor, over and over, pleading ignorance about the latest Chicago political scandal.

"I was in government service for about twenty-seven years, sixteen of those as an elected official, and, in my opinion, the mayor knows everything that goes on in City Hall."

Check out these websites from Sneed's column with regards to Laski's book.

From the publisher, Author House. And Laski's website, My Fall From Grace. The book itself is titled, My Fall from Grace: City Hall to Prison Walls.

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Rezkowatch gets a letter from Nadhmi Auchi's lawyer (Updated with Sun Times on expected John Thomas testimony)

Rezkowatch writes

Today, RezkoWatch received an emailed 3-page letter from media lawyer Alasdair Pepper of London's Carter-Ruck which stated that Nadhmi Auchi is a client. The letter enumerated a list of cited material from RezkoWatch which Pepper, on behalf of his client, said,

..."contains numerous highly defamatory and false allegations, in addition to other false claims about our client" and that it makes "very serious allegations and claims without making any real attempt to check the truth of them.......

That said, any characterization of Nahdmi Auchi as "corrupt" or involved with "corruption" have been removed from RezkoWatch unless they are contained within cited source material.

Additionally, RezkoWatch articles containing information about Nadhmi Auchi from questionable sources have been archived while those sources and information contained therein are verified.

Cheers I guess....I'm sure it's still talley-ho with Patrick Fitzgerald.

Update: Today's Sun Times: My life as an FBI mole

For the first time, the FBI "mole" who's expected to be a key prosecution witness against indicted developer and political fund-raiser Tony Rezko is talking.

In an exclusive interview with the Sun-Times, John Thomas said his life became frantic as he amassed hundreds of hours of recorded conversations for federal investigators while trying to maintain the real estate business he built on pluck and hustle.

[***]

Thomas wouldn't discuss details of his work for the FBI.

But sources said that, for more than two years when he was giving information to agents, Thomas provided a fly-on-the-wall look inside Rezko's real estate operations and his desperate attempts to keep his projects afloat.

Sources said Thomas also logged frequent visits to Rezko from Gov. Blagojevich and U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.). [my emphasis] Blagojevich and Obama were among the many politicians for whom Rezko raised campaign cash. Neither has been charged with any wrongdoing.

I don't have a crystal ball. I just have a hard time believing this isn't going to be big trouble for Obama and Democrats over all.

I guess only the sources can say.

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Foster Misses an Oportunity...

How Bill Foster could have really reached out to Laesch's supporters....

Before Laesch's press conference yesterday he could have shown up and said something like this...

Since the founding of the Democratic Party, we have stood for the notion of making every vote count, and counting every vote. We fought for women's suffrage, and we fought for African Americans to vote. We fought for the Voting Rights Act, and we fought to count every vote in Florida. With so much at stake in THIS election, we cannot afford to allow any doubt as to the true intent of the voters so I'm going to ask for a recount. And because I understand that this involves the expenditure of funds, and my good friend John Laesch hasn't been blessed with my financial resources, I'm going to offer to pay for the recount personally.

Further I pledge until this is resolved I am only running and campaigning for the special election, not for the regular election in November. John is right we should make sure the voters decided this and that every vote is counted...

Thank You.

Then all Laesch can do is say thank you and his supporters are going to be more motivated to get behind Foster.

OneMan

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Daily Herald: Fight still left in Laesch

Daily Herald with this and then Downtowner over at PSB on Laesch's press conference yesterday. From the Herald,

Among those encouraging Laesch to keep fighting was state Sen. Mike Noland. The Elgin Democrat, who referred to Laesch as "Cinderella Man" and compared him to presidential hopeful Barack Obama, lost two state legislative races by close margins before finally winning in 2006.

"It's so close, we have to do it," Noland said. "The fight goes on. No matter what the result, young man, you have an extremely bright future."

All the energy and money devoted to Pera running in the southwest side as pro-abortion and pro-embryonic stem cell research, when you could have betted on running Laesch against Oberweis in Elgin and Aurora on immigration.

A lot of progressives underestimated their own lured by a guy with money and slim experience. Read Lisa Smith: Group questions Foster's experience

Highlighting a Foster campaign mailer describing how Foster was "serving on Murphy's congressional staff" before deciding to run for office himself, the Washington-based Majority Accountability Project claimed that House payroll records don't list Foster's name anywhere on Murphy's staff. Foster's news release clarified that Foster "was an unpaid staffer after Murphy's election." But working for free for a member of Congress could be considered a violation of House ethics rules, Majority Accountability Project pointed out Friday.

Laesch may have some quirks, but compared to Oberweis's own quirks; that'll be a wash. Foster's puffing will be tougher to shake.

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First Lady to attend Tuesday's Lincoln bicentennial kickoff

First Lady Laura will attend the kickoff of the Abraham Lincoln bicentennial celebration Tuesday at the Lincoln birhplace site in Hodgenville, Kentucky. The president was invited too, but he will not be attending.

Lincoln was born on February 12, 1809--he shares the birthdate with Charles Darwin.

The bicentennial events will last two years, which is why it begins this year.

To comment on this post, or to vote in the Pajamas Media presidential straw poll, click here.

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Beacon News: Shake-up in Kendall GOP

I don't have any special insights on this one. Someone wants to share how this squares with Kay Hatcher's win, I'm open to some enlightenment. Is it displeasure with Hastert and throw the rascals out?

Three-decade GOP leaders Dallas Ingemunson and Terry Peshia lost their seats on the Kendall County Republican Central Committee Tuesday to first-time candidates with apparent ties to an upstart political group.

Residents linked to the year-old Kendall County Republican Candidate Support Committee captured 18 of the 75 precinct committeeman positions that make up the GOP rank and file. At least one KCRCSC boss is eyeing a leadership bid when the Central Committee elects new party bosses next month.

"They're going to find that (party work) is not as easy a job as they think," said Ingemunson, who no longer belongs to the Central Committee he led for three decades, helping to launch the careers of former U.S. House Speaker Dennis Hastert and Illinois House Minority Leader Tom Cross.

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The Hypocritical Right

I've been feeling a little sorry for John McCain today. McCain, as we know, was bullied into offering a mea culpa of sorts to conservatives over his stand on a few issues that they take big issue with.

What is it about John McCain that has the Right Wing of his party so angry?

• McCain supports bipartisan immigration reform;
• McCain supported campaign finance reform;
• McCain recognizes the need to act on global warming;
• McCain has indicated in the past that he wants moderates on the Supreme Court.

What's so hypocritical about the Right Wing?

• George Bush supports bipartisan immigration reform;
• George Bush signed campaign finance reform into law;
• George Bush now recognizes that global warming is a problem that needs to be addressed;
• George Bush attempted to appoint moderate Harriet Meirs to the Supreme Court.

Instead of kissing the rears of the Right Wing, John McCain should simply tell them the truth: I'll be a president like George Bush. Just like George Bush.

BTW, all the puckering up by McCain isn't really paying off. Today, conservative leader and former presidential candidate James Dobson (head of Focus on the Family) endorsed Mike Huckabee.

A Huckabee VP spot appears inevitable.

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Bill Foster's Iraq ad

Here's Fosters first ad against Oberweis on Iraq.



How does this square with Illinois Democrats getting loans from an Iraqi ex-Baathist implicated in the Food for Oil Scandal? The AP's Exclusive: Indicted Blagojevich fundraiser got loan from Iraqi

And a photo of our Gov sitting between that Iraqi billionaire and Iraq's Minister of Electricity, convicted of looting Iraq, and --alleged by PM Maliki-- to have been sprung from Jail in the Green Zone by Blackwater now with a campus in Illinois?

Now wonder why Congress is investigating Drugs in Baseball instead of following through with Waxman's call for investigating corruption in Iraq?

Today the House with a vote of 395-21 passed the Iraq Corruption Resolution, introduced on Friday, October 12, 2007, by Chairmen Waxman and Tierney. In his statement on the House floor, Chairman Waxman called the State Department abuses of the classification system “outrageous” and demanded answers to questions about corruption in Iraq.

Tin Foil hat stuff?

I don't think so.

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Westboro Baptist Church to protest Lane Bryant victims' funerals this weekend

The Westboro Baptist Church, better known as the scumbags who protest fallen soldiers' funerals with "God Hates Fags" signs, are coming to Illinois this Saturday to protest the funerals of two victims who died in the Lane Bryant shootings in Tinley Park last weekend.

They'll be at the funerals of Sarah T. Szafranski and Connie R. Woolfolk in Oak Forest and Country Club Hills respectively.

Part of me is outraged that people can still be consciously so cruel for absolutely no good reason, but another part of me feels pity that they'll never be able to show human compassion.

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Rezko redux?

By Patrick O’Brien
As the presidential race remains heated across the country, Tony Rezko’s federal corruption trial still could play a role in determining the Democratic nominee. U.S. Sen. Barack Obama is still trying to distance himself from Rezko. He even returned direct and indirect campaign contributions from or related to the political networker to shed a real or perceived relation.

Rezko is scheduled to go to trial March 3, the day before large primaries in four states, including Texas and Ohio, that should go a long way in determining the presidential nominee.

Former Gov. Jim Edgar says he doesn’t think the Rezko affair will hurt Obama as much as it will plague embattled Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich. Rezko has been a longtime friend and adviser to Blagojevich.

Edgar says he hasn’t seen anything that he would consider a “smoking gun” between Obama and Rezko, adding Rezko has donated to a lot of politicians. “I took a campaign contribution from Tony Rezko, and I don’t remember him ever asking for anything,” Edgar said Thursday after sitting on a post-election panel sponsored by the Institute of Government and Public Affairs and the Center for State Policy and Leadership in Springfield.

“We all have acquaintances and friends where they’ve done something we wished they didn’t do, but that doesn’t mean we’re in the same boat as them,” Edgar said.

Pundits believe the upcoming primary schedule is much more favorable to Obama than to his opponent, Sen. Hillary Clinton, but as the trial date nears, Obama’s links to Rezko are sure to be scrutinized again by the national press. In addition to being a campaign contributor, Rezko also sold land to Obama adjacent to his Chicago home, a deal Obama later admitted was a mistake. The deal occurred while U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald was investigating Rezko for fraud and extortion.

Democratic Sen. John Sullivan of Rushville, who has worked on Obama’s behalf in Iowa, Minnesota and South Carolina during the primaries, also spoke on the panel and said he didn’t think the Rezko story would mean anything to voters from out of state. Sullivan said the “average person out there” doesn’t know who Rezko is and that media attention to the case has exceeded the public’s interest.

Kent Redfield, director of the Sunshine Project and interim director of the Institute for Legislative Studies at the University of Illinois at Springfield, has another perspective. He says the incident “raises some doubts nationally because they don't have the context.” He adds that Illinois voters are more used to “rough and tumble politics” than voters in other states.

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OW'-chee! AP Exclusive: Indicted Blagojevich fundraiser got loan from Iraqi

The AP today.

Governor Rod Blagojevich's chief fundraiser has arranged to get a loan from the same Iraqi billionaire whose $3.5 million payment got another member of the governor's inner circle thrown in jail.

Christopher Kelly headed Blagojevich's campaign fund in both of his races for governor and is now under federal indictment.

State records reviewed by The Associated Press show that Kelly pledged all of his shares in a Nevada land partnership as collateral for a loan from a company headed by Nadhmi Auchi (OW'-chee).

Ok, I'll skip the obvious speculation... but just tell me with Romney talking like this today, how this mess from Illinois isn't going to ruin Democrats in 2008.

I disagree with Senator McCain on a number of issues, as you know. But I agree with him on doing whatever it takes to be successful in Iraq, on finding and executing Osama bin Laden, and on eliminating Al Qaeda and terror. If I fight on in my campaign, all the way to the convention, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign and make it more likely that Senator Clinton or Obama would win. And in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign, be a part of aiding a surrender to terror.

What an albatross Illinois politics has become.

Update: more here.

Update 2 even more: Gov insiders to testify at Rezko trial.

Insiders from Gov. Blagojevich’s administration will testify in the upcoming fraud trial of political fund-raiser Tony Rezko that Rezko was “one of a handful of extremely powerful political leaders” who had “significant influence” on gubernatorial appointments, according to a new federal court filing.

The document shows in the most detail yet how deeply federal investigators are probing into the inner workings of the governor’s office.
[***]
The case has drawn national attention because of Rezko’s fund-raising ties to Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama, who was involved in a real estate transaction with Rezko’s wife at a time in 2006 when Rezko was widely known to be under federal investigation.

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Zorn: Obama's Rezkopportunity knocks

Zorn's post that should be nailed to the door at Obama's campaign office.

I didn’t expect Barack Obama to interrupt his Super Tuesday campaigning last week and heed the suggestion in my column that he answer in detail the questions that keep coming up about his entanglements with Tony Rezko, the fundraiser who’s now facing trial on federal corruption charges.

He was very busy and had to stay on message. I get that. But with only nine primaries the whole rest of the month, he now has the chance—a Rezkopportunity if you will—to grant a sit-down interview to Tribune investigative reporters Ray Gibson and David Jackson and try to make this story go away before it inevitably burbles up again at a less convenient time.

I belonged to my college listserv about this time in 2004 and remember the disappointed Dean supporters reconciling themselves to Kerry with the consolation Kerry's war record would make him such a winner compared to Bush.

We had all been anti-War in College and my response was go back and look at the Winter Soldier hearings, and Kerry's testimony before congress. I remembered it all vividly. It was one of the most painful times in our history and it was not going to do Kerry any favors played back in the campaign.

No one agreed with me.

I have the same feeling now with Obama and the issues around Rezko. Zorn's giving the strategy to get ahead of it all. Let's see if Obama takes the advice.

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Going back into the vault

One of the stories mentioned in this article was of then Comptroller Roland Burris who said that the state won't be able to pay it bills for the following month and suggest that perhaps we could pay it with cheese. The state requests 3 1/2 million pounds of federal surplus for the poor. Then after that an ad for Brown's Chicken.

Found at YouTube under FuzzyMemoriesTV and the website is FuzzyMemories.tv.

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Illinois Dems Wrong Again

Remember how moving the primary election from the third week of March to the first week of February was going to increase the significance of Illinois in national politics?

Well, it didn’t happen.

Very little money was spent here.

If there were any TV ads, I missed them. That would have been easy, since the television screen isn’t the one I sit in front of.

In any event, Time online came up with this observation that fits like a glove:

But one thing is a surprise for the Democrats:

all the big states that rushed into the void to hold early primaries may turn out to have spoken too soon. Instead of making themselves kingmakers, their divided result has abdicated the power to the states that waited their turn.”

Here are my predictions of a year ago. Some actually turned out to be correct.

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Mark Pera's campaign

Considering the energy posting for Pera here and here, you have to wonder if it was time really misspent due to a badly flawed understanding of the issues and voters in Illinois's 3rd district.

Take a look at some of the postings on why Pera's campaign made so much sense and you really have to wonder if Pera's supporters aren't way out-of-touch.

Compare their disconnect in the third with many of these same folk's abandonment of John Laesch in the 14th --a guy who I think would stand a chance against a widely disliked Oberweis especially with Obama at the top of the ticket in November-- and you really have to wonder about their political horse-sense.

The silence on Pera, or worse: WestsideGirl in Kos, doesn't auger well for progressivism.

So seduced by a millionaire's money as the path to power, they'll dump their political principles. That McCain doing just the opposite and winning should tell us something about 2008.

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Wrap-up Wednesday

By Bethany Jaeger and Patrick O'Brien
The surprise on Super Duper Tuesday in Illinois was at the state level, not the national level. Illinois still played a significant role February 5 by doling out more than 200 presidential delegates to the Democratic and Republican candidates, but the state got lost in the mix of 22 states that held primaries that day. I’ll repeat this point made by Kent Redfield, political scientist at the University of Illinois at Springfield, for a previous blog. “There’s a certain irony in the fact that we moved our primary up so we could be a major player, and now states that didn’t move actually may be more important than Illinois. If we’d have stuck to mid-March, we might have been this huge battleground all by ourselves instead of one of all of these other states.”

National view
Illinois Democrats were predictable in electing Barack Obama, former state senator and current U.S. senator of Chicago. But Obama is still in a tight race against U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York to win enough delegates nationwide to secure the Party nomination. (See more at the Associated Press’s “Delegate Tracker” here.) By Wednesday morning, Clinton had fewer than 100 delegates more than Obama, heightening the importance of the next round of primary elections throughout this month and next (other states have primaries scheduled through June for Democrats and July for Republicans).

Republicans in a dozen states nominated U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona. He already has half of the GOP delegates needed to win the nomination over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

State view
The state-level surprise was that Senate Democrats fared better than expected, and Gov. Rod Blagojevich could still have some allies to replace those who vacated their seats to work for him.

Senate Democratic incumbents — particularly assistant majority leaders Iris Martinez and Ricky Hendon, both of Chicago — withstood challenges that had potential to significantly alter the chamber.

Martinez’s leadership position sparked controversy within the Latino Caucus because Senate President Emil Jones Jr. selected her over fellow Latino Sen. Tony Munoz to serve in Jones’ cabinet. The disagreement affected the entire chamber, sometimes preventing such major legislation as the governor’s health care plan from advancing.

Martinez received a lot of money from Senate Democrats, including four separate $40,000 donations and a $100,000 check from the Illinois Senate Democratic Fund. (We're having a hard time with the State Board of Elections Web site linking to the wrong page. I hope it works for you.) She ended up winning more than half the vote over state Rep. Rich Bradley, who vacated his House seat so Chicago Ald. Dick Mell’s daughter, Deborah Mell, who also is the governor’s sister-in-law, could run. Mell is uncontested in that race.

Martinez’s likelihood of staying put won’t change the Senate dynamic much, but it will deepen tensions that likely will affect this spring’s negotiations or lack thereof.

Hendon, a former West Side Chicago alderman and Party committeeman, is a rather outspoken senator called “Hollywood Hendon” because of his flashy suits and quick quips. He’s also a licensed producer and writer. He’s become a point person on gaming negotiations and gained a last-minute sponsorship of the Chicago-area mass transit legislation because he was in an intense race against Chicago Democrat AmySue Mertens, an experienced community advocate who had the backing of AFSCME Council 31. A third candidate, Jonathan Singh Bedi, had potential to be a spoiler if it turned out to be a close race. That wasn’t the case. Hendon won more than 60 percent of the vote, according to the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners. The $17,000 donation January 31 from the Senate president probably didn’t hurt.

In the Illinois House, two successful candidates backed by Blagojevich could place more emphasis on the dynamics of the governor’s relationship with House Speaker Michael Madigan, as the governor held onto the seat of a former ally and gained another probable supporter.

Blagojevich ally Patti Hahn of Centralia won the democratic primary for Rep. Kurt Granberg’s seat in the 107th District. Granberg, a Carlyle Democrat, vacated his seat and could pop up in the Blagojevich Administration. Hahn defeated Travis Loyd by twenty points in the historically Democratic district. Democratic Rep. Jay Hoffman, a key Blagojevich ally in the House, contributed to Hahn’s campaign.

Will Burns, a former aide to the Senate president, won the primary in the 26th District on Chicago’s South Side with 33 percent of the vote in a five-way race. Incumbent Rep. Elga Jeffries, who was appointed to the seat in 2007, finished a distant fourth with 12 percent. Burns also was an Obama staffer at one point, and Obama won more than 90 percent of the vote in that district in 2004. The victory means another potential supporter to the Blagojevich-Jones alliance next year. Burns received significant financial support from Senate Democrats allied with Jones and from contributors with strong ties to Jones, including utility giant Commonwealth Edison.

Preview
(And follow-up from January)
House District 44 Democratic incumbent Rep. Fred Crespo will face Republican Margaret “Peggy” Brothman in November to serve the northwest suburbs of Chicago.

House District 56 Schaumburg Rep. Paul Froehlich, who switched from a Republican to a Democrat last year, won the Democratic nomination despite fierce opposition from John Moynihan. He’ll now face Schaumburg Republican Anita Forte-Scott, who was unopposed in the primary.

House District 92 Because Republican state Rep. Aaron Schock vacated his seat to run — and ultimately win — a GOP nomination for Congress, the west-central Illinois seat was vacant. Now Peoria Democrat Jehan Gordon will face Peoria Republican Cindy Ardis Jenkins. Gordon won the primary with financial help from Senate Democrats and Hoffman despite a controversy regarding whether she actually graduated from the University of Illinois as stated in campaign literature. The district leaned Republican by fewer than 300 votes in 2004 and was competitive in 2006.

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Fighting John Laesch

I heard Laesch at the League of Women Voters describe how he was sent to Africa with the Navy after the USS Cole bombing and he conjured a Rambo image of a guy single-handedly out for Osama bin Laden.

Let's see how long he hangs in on this fight. Given the history of snafus in Kane County, and the complicated two ballot voting, he may have a case. From NPR,

The election in Illinois' 14th Congressional District was anything but cut and dried. Voters had to cast two ballots: one for November's general election, then another one for the March 8th special election. That's needed because Hastert resigned before his term was over.

Former Fermilab scientist Bill Foster claimed victory in the special election. But the general's not so clear. Carpenter John Laesch is barely behind Foster and says he's not giving up yet.

LAESCH: We're gonna make sure every vote's counted, recounted if possible, and certainly we're gonna make sure all the provisional ballots and absentee ballots are counted. So, we're gonna be hiring a lawyer and this will go on a couple days.

Foster spent hundreds of thousands of dollars of his own money on the primary. He faces Republican Jim Oberweis in the special election.

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The Speaker Pile Drives Lauzen

The Oberweis-Lauzen race was a classic match up, one that Lauzen should have easily won.

Pitting a rich, four time losing egomaniac, against an experienced, Harvard educated State Senator seemed like a slam-dunk for Lauzen.

What went wrong?

The sad, ironic truth—Lauzen had the temerity and stupidity to speak for himself, while Oberweis lacked courage but possessed enough foresight to let Pascoe do the talk’in.

The result: While Jim whistled, Chris whined publicly that politics was a crappy business that had cost his family millions.

Great slogan—elect Lauzen, he hates his job and resents the voters.

It seemed that when Lauzen opened his mouth, another Bozo shoe would fall. He would compliment Speaker Hastert for his service but then rip him for being an an "insider" and imply that his health was ailing.

By insulting the Speaker, Lauzen taunted Denny into the race big time. So as Jimbo sat on the sidelines counting calories, the popular Speaker cut commercials, auto dialers and direct mail for Oberus Maximus.

While I had anticipated that Oberweis would spew his dysgalactia and earn another loss, I never imagined that Lauzen would happily douse himself in aviation fuel and start smoking.

But politicians are an odd lot.

They were either hugged too little or breast-fed too long, and although Lauzen may have been the better choice for the GOP to keep this seat, the Milkman finally delivered.

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Politics: Stunner in the 92nd

Talk about depressing.

I had been planning all day to go to the the John Morris victory party at the River Station. I like John (and I like the River Station) but the thought of spending the evening among people as they watch their favored candidate finish third in the three-person race just didn't appeal to me.

When I heard that Allen Mayer was holding his victory party at the Radison Hotel (a short jaunt by car from Randolph Avenue), I went over there to schmooze and watch people celebrate Allen Mayer's victory in the race for the Democratic nomination for the 92nd District seat in the State House of Representatives.

I why wouldn't I expect to see people celebrating? I thought at the beginning of the race for the his foe, Jehan Gordon, was the underdog. Mayer had it all over Jehan. He had the backing of powerful unions and the environment lobby, as well as a ton of local goodwill through his having served on the Peoria County board AND with being the staff attorney for Illinois Comptroller Dan Hynes. I found Gordon to be smart, likable, attractive, and because she was black, she would likely attract a sizable numbers of black voters to the polls. This was why Democratic party leaders recruited her to run back when they thought the opponent would be Aaron Schock.

Then stuff about Gordon started coming out. Turns out she never really completed her studies at the University of Illinois, contrary to the claim on some of her campaign materials. Then there was a dispute over whether or not she ever worked to encourage business to make use of the North American Free Trade Act. Late in her campaign, she held a press conference to reveal that she once was arrested for shoplifting. And in a development that was reported on C.J. Summer's site, but not in the mainstream media, she only paid the fines on the shoplifting charge seven years after the case was adjudicated ... three days before she told voters about the charges.

So, forgive me for thinking that Gordon had gone from being a slight underdog to a longshot.

There were plenty of clues that it wasn't quite going to play out that way. First, Mr. Mayer was late, and arrived with a nervous look on his face. He and his campaign people kept leaving to gather what info they could to piece together an accurate picture of the results beyond the rare updates the local media provided.

Second, it was not fun in that room. The very early results showed Gordon with a huge lead. We were assured that once votes started coming in from the county, the race would narrow. And it did. But shortly before 11 p.m., with just a few precincts left, the gap was too great to overcome. Mayer, informed of the numbers, walked over to his wife, took her aside and whispered in her ear. They left the room, and returned a few minutes later.

He stood at the podium and announced that he had called Jehan Gordon to congratulate her on her victory. He thanked his supporters, his wife (who seemed more upset that he was) and his young children, and urged everyone there to vote for Gordon and to work hard to support the entire Democratic ticket.

The final results? Jehan Gordon: 5,695; Allan Mayer: 5,332. That's a 363 vote difference.

The postmortem: I'm sure that experts wiser than I in matters political will have a more in-depth explanation. These are my immediate thoughts.

• Early voting was critical. A person close to the campaign told me that in the city of Peoria alone, some 500 early votes were cast for Gordon. The number was closer to 200 for Mayer. I have to think that some of those votes were cast before the revelations about the U of I degree and the shoplifting charge hit the paper, and that at least some of 500 votes would have gone to Mayer otherwise.


• Were campaign workers imported to get out the Gordon vote? Several people attending said that some 200 workers out of Chicago -- perhaps belonging to the Laborers International Union -- hit town today at the behest of Governor Rod Blagojevich.


• Voter turnout was huge this year. The Mayer camp believes that voting was heavy among black people who were eager to cast their ballots for Barack Obama. This tended to help Gordon.


• Mayer supporters were angry that Gordon ran ads in the final week decrying attacks on her. The Mayer's campaign had nothing to do with the revelations, they said. Indeed several people congratulated him after his concession speech for running a clean campaign that didn't resort to mud slinging. While there are those who will assume that the Mayer's camp tipped off the PJS, it's also true that not one single Mayer ad mentioned any of it.


• It's safe to assume that while Mayer didn't make hay of the degree controversy or the shoplifting conviction, it is a safe bet that House Minority Speaker Tom Cross will have no compunction against doing so on behalf of the Republican candidate.

Cross posted to Peoria Pundit.

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McHenry County Democrats Out Polling Republicans in Presidential Ballots

With 86% of precincts counted in McHenry County, Democrats have 51.2% of the ballots cast for president.

This tracks nicely with the early voting totals, in which voters were taking 51% of the ballots cast when I wrote my story.

So, is this a result of Obama fever?

Barack Obama did beat Hillary Clinton by almost 2-1 (almost 63% to almost 36%).

Was the more fervent support of the Democratic presidential candidates the reason for more people taking Democratic Party ballots in this supposed Republican County?

If you were the Democrats, wo?

Or would you stick to just one—the county coroner’s office, with Republican turned Democrat Dave Bachmann, who started Bachmann funeral home, being the candidate?

Published first at McHenry County Blog, where there is lots more on what happened in McHenry County this strange election night.

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LIVEBLOG: Super Duper Fat Tuesday 2008 Primary Election

I'll be liveblogging the 2008 presidential primaries for Super Duper Fat Tuesday via Twitter. You can follow me at the account illinoizeyoshi, or use the RSS feed here. I'll also have the last 20 updates embedded below.

I'll be in Chicago tonight, having fun and trying to find other political geeks who are watching the returns tonight. Here's two places that are having Super Fat Tuesday events. Odds are very good I'll be at one of these two places:
Piece: Neighborhood: Bucktown/Wicker Park 1927 W. North Ave.
Sheffield's: Neighborhood: Lakeview 3258 N. Sheffield Ave.

Got any others? Add them to the comments.

Super Duper Fat Tuesday 2008 Liveblog!

follow me on Twitter

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Election Day analysis

Watch Illinois Issues Blog throughout Wednesday for post-Election Day analysis, and have fun tonight.

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Big trouble at Peoria polling places (UPDATED)

Eyebrows McGee is reporting that she encountered a huge problem when she went to vote: She was given a ballot with only national races. She contacted the Peoria Election Commission and was given this explanation:

The Peoria Election Commission, when I called, informed me that this is a special case for people who've moved precincts within the last 30 days and that it was poll worker error that I was given the incorrect ballot. They also told me this was a SYSTEM-WIDE PROBLEM that they've had many calls about today, and have workers out trying to "fix" the poll worker error on the fly.

This, in my opinion, could taint the result of any local election in which the results are close. How many people are affected by this? How many of those people who were affected able to realize that something was amiss? Even if the numbers affected don't rise to the level that would affect the results of a race, there's still a perception.

I respect Tom Bride, executive director for the City of Peoria Election Commission. He's gotta be having a really bad day because of this.

UPDATED: It may not be as bad as all that. Rich Miller says in a subscriber-only post that the problem is NOT system-wide and affects only a "handful" of voters. Bride also told Miller that turnout is heavy.

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TALKING ECONOMY WITH THE PRESIDENT

With the recent economic downturn, most of that national public policy debate has revolved around the economy. This culminated with the President’s State of the Union Address where he focused on ways to kick into gear the struggling economy.

A few weeks ago, the President visited Chicago to discuss the economy with business leaders. One of the fortunate people who attended these events was Sandra Westlund-Deenihan, President, of Quality Float Works, Inc. located in Schaumburg, Illinois. Sandy is a third generation manufacturer whose company has been experiencing record revenue growth in the midst of the lagging economy. Sandy was one of the few small businesses and woman owned businesses who had the opportunity to share her views with the President.

In and interview with the Daily Herald following her visit, Sandy shared her unique experience with the paper. The next morning, Sandy was a guest on WLS-AM Don Wade & Roma Show where she praised the President for his leadership on economic issues, but also outlined her concerns with the growing skills gap manufacturers – and all businesses – continue to face.

As Sandy said, she was the voice of small business and took this opportunity to carry the message to the President. When you think of the number of businesses that exist in the suburbs, you can understand her enthusiasm for this once in a lifetime opportunity. You also can think they must be doing something right at Quality Float Works, Inc.

Ryan McLaughlin
VP/Group Director
Zapwater Communications, Inc.

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Super Tuesday voting, Niles Township's 58th Precinct, not hassle free

I just returned from my polling place, Thomas A. Edison School in Skokie, Illinois, with pride I selected a Republican ballot.

Even when I was living in Chicago, exercising my franshise was a confrontation-free experience for me. Not today.

I walked into the school's gymnasium where the voting machines are, declared my party preference, and saw a pile of political signs right behind the Republican judge. Right on top, albeit upside down, was a placard for the odious Jan Schakowsky, my congresscritter and one of the most liberal members of the House.

I complained to a Skokie police officer who was in the gym, and he replied in a classic "Da Bears" accent, "Don't even start with me!"

My retort was, "Well, c'mon, you know the law, and there aren't supposed to be any political signs within 100 feet of a polling place, those signs are inside."

Cop: "He's moving the ones outside now." (He was a sixtyish man, probably not an election judge, who I saw with a tape meaure outside as I walked into the school.)

Me: "Then why are those signs inside? "Besides (appealing to reason), it's not even that cold out there."

One of the judges then covered up the Schakowsky-topped pile with a coat.

And yes, I voted for John McCain.

You can't see them in the picture, but in front of the school there were a whole bunch of signs, probably a dozen, for Democratic State's Attorney candidate Larry Suffredin, someone who Schakowsky endorsed. More on that from The Bench.

UPDATE 7:30PM: A snarky commenter, probably a Schakowsky supporter, correctly pointed out that Edison School is in Morton Grove. The school is right on the border, but it is in a Skokie school district. And when I walked into the Morton Grove school, there was a Skokie squad car at the entrance of the gym.

To comment on this post, please visit Marathon Pundit.

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Open Ended & Listed Issue Concerns

Cross Posted from Fako & Associates' Political Polling Blog.

Our polling and several national polls by other organizations have shown that the Iraq War is no longer the highest issue concern among likely voters. While still a major issue that could quickly rise to the top again given sufficient media attention, the War is being trumped by financial concerns about the stalling economy, foreclosures, raising taxes, and health care and prescription medicine.

"The economy, stupid"

Different Bush, different Clinton, same message... new Obama?

Is it really 1992 all over again?

"It did take a Clinton to clean (up) after the first Bush, and I think it might take a second one to clean up after the second Bush..." -- Hillary Clinton, January 31, 2008

Some seem to think so.

Carville's famed sign on the wall of the Little Rock office in 1992 also included two other important phrases:

1. "Change vs. more of the same"

2. "Don't forget health care."

While the relevance of 1992 is up for debate, we're finding that health care is becoming ever-more defined as an economic concern, and undoubtedly, an underlying component of the current feeling of economic uncertainty. According to a 2005 Harvard University study*, 68 percent of those who filed for bankruptcy in the US had health insurance. In addition, the study found that 50 percent of all bankruptcy filings were partly the result of medical expenses. Indeed, don't forget health care.

Simply talking off a bullet point isn't enough to relate to the voters. Candidates have to speak directly to the concerns of the electorate. While all challenger campaigns are inherently running on a message of "change," even if that message is never directly communicated, the nuances of the message behind their version of "change" will determine if they connect with the voters. As we've seen in the recent debates, none of the candidates were shying away from the word "Change..."

Undoubtedly the word "change" tested well.

Pollsters sometimes use listed issue concern questions instead of open-ended issue concern questions to save time (and money) in a survey. We find that listed issue questions often miss the way how issues are being discussed. While F&A, Inc. hasn't recently conducted a nation-wide survey that included a top issue concern question, some of our recent surveys in several mid-west and east coast state legislative campaigns included open-ended verbatim response questions about the voters' top issue concerns.

For example, in one of our recent surveys, a respondent offered the following when asked about his or her most important issue concern:

"I WOULD SAY HEALTH CARE SHOULD BE MORE AFFORDABLE TO PEOPLE AND THAT DRUG PRESCRIPTIONS PRICES SHOULD BE LOWERED. I THINK THAT EVERYBODY SHOULD HAVE AFFORDABLE INSURANCE"

This response was typical of all responses that related to health care. A campaign in this district that focuses it's health care message on concerns other than making health care affordable and lowering the cost of prescription drugs will not be connecting with the concerns of the voters in this particular district.

1992 or not, candidates who speak directly to the concerns of the voters in a way that addresses their concerns will fair far better than a candidate who elaborates off a bullet point without qualified direction.

Early benchmark surveys should be as comprehensive as possible and include open-ended issue concerns whenever possible and appropriate for a campaign's budget. These types of questions help drill deeper into the how and why a voter thinks and cares about a particular issue and provides better strategic direction on how a candidate can address the issue.

In a presidential race, 1992 or 2008, there simply is no excuse for not having the message right. Regardless of the level of campaign, we always say it is better to have the message designed right the first time, than to spend the rest of the campaign correcting it.

* Himmelstein, D, E. Warren, D. Thorne, and S. Woolhander, "Illness and Injury as Contributors to Bankruptcy, " Health Affairs Web Exclusive W5-63, 02 February , 2005.

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Hillary snubs Eric & Kathy radio show

Hat tip to Mrs. Marathon Pundit for this one.

The Eric & Kathy Show is a popular morning radio talk show in Chicago, broadcasting on WTMX-FM. Earlier today, a Hillary Rodham Clinton campaign representative called the show's producer and asked if they'd like to have the former Chicago area resident appear on the show for a telephone interview at 9:00am. The show accepted the offer, they called the magic telephone number at the agreed upon time, but the hosts were put on hold for 15 minutes, after which the pair was told that the senator would not be available.

I'm listening to the Eric and Kathy now, they're still talking about the snub.

To comment on this post, please visit Marathon Pundit.

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Village of Campton Hills

Starting to get phone calls from folks saying the candidates for Campton Hills weren't on the ballot (either ballot as we've got this screwball double election going on in the 14th).

Headed for the polls in a bit and will let you know later.

Update: Today's Herald,

An error that prevented at least one man from voting on hotly contested races in Campton Hills has prompted Kane County election officials to remind voters to check their ballots carefully before leaving the polls.

"If they feel that their ballot isn't right -- if there isn't something on there that should be -- they should not press the vote button," County Clerk Jack Cunningham said Friday. "Once you press that lever, (the ballot) is irretrievable."

So learned Mark Gordon, a 10-year resident of the Campton Hills area, when he showed up for early voting Wednesday at Campton Community Center.

Gordon said he didn't realize until after he was finished voting that an election judge had given him the incorrect precinct ballot, which lacked races for eight offices in the village of Campton Hills.

Too many ballots.

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Chicagoland presidential campaign contributions map mashup

Not that the comparison above between Republican and Democratic donors from Chicago is any surprise, but the Huffington Post has a nice Google Maps mashup that geographically charts presidential campaign contributions.

Found any other nifty charts, graphs, maps, interactive Flash apps, etc. that deals with the primaries tomorrow? Put them in the comments, I'd love to check them out.

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Website traffic: Barack Obama vs. Hillary Clinton

Ever since I read a friend's Facebook note that Barack Obama's servers were crushed by the power of hope, I wondered how his traffic levels compared to Hillary Clinton's.

So, who's received more Internet traffic? Answer: It's all in how you measure traffic, which means there's no clear winner here.

Using the site Compete.com to compare site traffic between Obama and Clinton, the answer isn't as clear cut as the first graph below.

First of all, let's look at "people count" -- a measure of unique visitors to each site. Unique visitors means "they only count a person once no matter how many times they visit a site in a given month." So, if you visited a thousand times in one month, it counts just as much as the guy who only went to one page in the same month.



Uniques tell you one thing: the number of individuals who visited your site (with some variance: a guy at work can count twice if he also visits at home, etc.) and this is an OK measure. However, it's not a true measure of traffic volume.

Traffic volume can also be measured by visits. Visits are described as the following:

Visits are initiated when a user enters a site. As the user interacts with the site the visit is live. Visits are considered live until the user's interaction with the site has ceased for a 30-minute period.

For instance, User A enters Yahoo at 9:00. User A checks their email and reviews the week's weather forecast. User A then goes to a meeting at 9:30. She returns at 10:30 and checks her Yahoo email again. Since 30 minutes lapsed between her two interactions User A is considered "one person" that made "two visits."

Again, Obama's also a winner in this category. Not a big surprise, really. He does have more Facebook friends, after all.

But now let's switch gears for a moment away from traffic and look at engagement metrics for Obama and Clinton.

First, take a look at average stay, which is the "number of minutes an average visitor spends on a site during each visit." Notice that Obama's held the lead here, but Clinton's made considerable gains in the past few months to catch him. People are looking to investigate the issues and evaluate and compare the two -- or at least that's my guess.



Another thing I'd consider here is that Obama's site has lots of social networking features. Sure, this is a cool thing, but it could mean that more of his supporters are spending time doing MySpace-ish stuff than the Clinton users who are perhaps newer and learning more about the candidate's stances on issues. Newer users spending more time online learning about a candidate is more valuable (at least I'd argue it is) than visitors using your site to blog about a candidate they're already supporting. I'd pose a theory that Clinton users are more interested in text-based content than social interaction, which Obama users might favor more heavily. Now, which one translates into votes at the polls? We'll soon see.

But here's the shocker folks. When it comes down to the number of pages per visit in a month, Clinton has the huge advantage since November. Check it out:



What could account for this? Several things: 1.) Obama's site might use a lot of AJAX, and using AJAX lowers page view count, 2.) People visit Obama's site, but they don't click through. 3.) Clinton voters are coming to learn more about her in one sitting, whereas Obama visitors are coming once to see a new piece of media, then leave.

A lot of site analytics data doesn't mean that it'll determine tomorrow's outcome, but it's interesting to think about. As we continue in the years to come, learning what it all means will become crucial to campaigns in their communication strategy. Right now we're in the infantile years of online political communication. Just imagine the innovation we'll see in the next four years and how that'll rapidly change the landscape of how we vote as younger generations become more technologically savvy.

(Cross posted to Nerdlusus)

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The battle for the 26th District.

I just saw this. The election is only a few hours away, but it's worth reporting here from N'Digo. Most of us here are familiar with this race and the players involved and perhaps even the issues that sparked it. I wonder who'll pull it out tomorrow.

The primaries are here and the issues are beyond relevant. One of the hottest races this election cycle rests in the heart of Bronzeville, Woodlawn, and Kenwood-Oakland communities.

The race in that area for the Illinois House's 26th District State Representative seat is diverse, deep with talent, and commitment to community and family values. With Ald. Howard Brookins’ bid for State’s Attorney and Sen. Barack Obama going for it all, this election is more than typical Chicago machine politics.

The passing more than two years ago of Louvanna Jones, who held the 26th District seat for over two decades, created a void that was filled by her longtime loyal aide Elga Jefferies, a Wendell Phillips graduate and grandmother of four. In her first challenge for the seat, Jefferies is in a fierce battle to advance for another term.
...
The electorate of the 26th District has changed dramatically over the last decade. It encompasses a rich list of assets including: McCormick Place, Navy Pier, the Gold Coast, and Soldier Field. It also would be at the center of a winning bid for a 2016 Olympics.

The demolition of public housing has scattered and depleted the traditional voter base in the district. Combined with educated and economically viable voters who now reside in the community, this race is extremely interesting as they augment the nascent political consciousness in the revamped Bronzeville, Woodlawn, and Kenwood-Oakland neighborhoods.

Enter Ed Smith, who cut his teeth in Chicago politics when Harold Washington challenged to become the city’s first African American mayor, is running for the Cook County Recorder of Deeds. “We seek to create a mission in the office to modernize and computerize the office fully and deliver service expeditiously," Smith tells N’Digo. Obama's national race has created fervor unseen since the Washington days on a local level he adds. Smith believes the younger vibrant candidates who seek elected office have a larger responsibility after their races, even if they lose. "They can't come into the business and lead if they win, or walk away if they lose. They need to stay in the process and bring other young people in."
...
The candidates are in the homestretch now, urging their supporters to turnout the vote on February 5. Concerned citizens may boost voter turnout on election day around the critical issues in the district. In addition, with Obama’s name on the ballot, and record absentee ballots already cast, votes should surge.

Initial polling had Phillip Jackson ahead in December. There’s a question as to whether he has the resources to deliver on election day, but Jackson says, “What we have found out in our campaign is that billboards don't vote; this will be decided in the street.”

At a fundraiser at Blu 47 restaurant in Bronzeville, Johnson is accompanied by supporters and young professionals –– the same ones who know him from his experiential marketing social-events for the Richmond Group. They are encouraged to see his gumption to stand up for something.

“I know Kenny Johnson and want to support him because he really wants to be in politics,” said one of his supporters. The event isn’t something new for Johnson, just the brand he’s pitching now is himself, and the consumer is his potential constituent.

Johnson participated in the “Boston Tea Party” this fall –– a staged protest to demand accountability regarding the proposed tax increases the county and city were presenting to balance the budget. “Somebody had to take a stand regarding those excesses, and enough was enough, especially taxing bottles of water,” Johnson remarked.

At an A+Illinois forum regarding education, all the candidates discussed the issue with vigor at Martin Luther King College Prep in front of students in the Kenwood-Oakland community. A school that just over a decade ago was at the bottom of the barrel academically, based upon state standardized test scores, King College Prep is now considered a South Side Whitney Young.

The debate opened with Jackson exclaiming the school was born on his watch. Johnson talked about his mother who was a principal, Burns his work as an aide in Springfield. Jefferies read prepared statements.

The budget issues in the state will likely become more unbalanced in the next term, extending from a slowing national economy and diminishing equity in homes. These events ultimately erode constituents’ ability to fund education reform, which is central at leaving kids behind.

On 47th Street, with blue lights flashing overhead in the darkness of the night, I approached more than a dozen African-American men who can be considered left behind by education policies.

The majority was voter age, so I asked them about the elections. “We good homie...we good,” one guy said, looking at the passing squad car and playing an intense game of cat-and-mouse with the CPD. None made a comment and were even hostile to questions about politics or the candidates.

However, after rehashing the question, one of them shouted “Jobs, that’s what we need –– jobs!” They all immediately dispersed when the squad car circled back. The police concerned them, too.

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Hope crushes Obama's servers for several hours

For at least 4 hours, Barack Obama's campaign Web site has displayed that image above. His Web site is down, servers overloaded just mere hours before the polls open for Super Duper Fat Tuesday tomorrow.

It didn't come online fully until about midnight on Monday evening.

While some might see this as a good sign for Obama -- high interest means that lots of people like him, which translates to votes -- I think this is an example of how not to create a campaign Web site.

If you don't have the server capacity, the proper software that can't provide scalability and no back-up plan for high web traffic volume, then you're going to fall flat on your face.

The site's administrators should have predicted this was going to happen. They should have not just a back-up server to help share the increased load, but also implemented a trimmed down version of the site to help reduce the amount of bandwidth they'd chew through.

On any other day, this wouldn't be such a big deal, but we're talking the night before the biggest primary day. This is when undecided voters are doing their research on Google. This is when supporters are e-mailing, blogging, etc. to their friends and family to go learn more about the candidate. Meanwhile, your biggest communication tool isn't operational at all and your rival's site is working.

There's been plenty of campaign blunders, but there's a whole new host of them that'll crop up now that the Internet's playing such a tremendous role in political communications. If things go badly for Obama tomorrow, there's a good chance yo